ExpectedValue Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I'd like to know how you can value the patents at 5 B$ mini, what your criterias are, thanks in advance. I'm basing it on the price per patent deal that Apple, Sony, Microsoft & RIMM paid for Nortel's patents ($750K each) and the price per patent that Microsoft paid for AOL's patents ($1.25M each). Yes, they may not be quite as valuable, but we have no idea until someone makes an offer. At the same time, RIMM acquired 17% of Nortel's patents in that sale, and those patents did sell at an average price of $750K per patent, so I think that would be the bottom. So doing the math...RIMM has 4,455 patents multiplied by $1M (the average of both deals)...gives us $4.455B. Thus the reason I said at $5 per share, you would have a significant margin of safety on the total enterprise's value. Cheers! I wouldn't use data from AOL's patent portfolio sale because they weren't in the business of mobile. I don't see why assigning $750k per patent makes sense. If you look at previous smartphone/mobile/communication related patent sales, 750k is on the high end. InterDigital sold at $113k per and Motorola Mobility sold at $327k per. Those, combined with the nortel figure, on a weighted average basis will give you $427k per patent. I would then argue that you should cut it in half, just to be conservative, that gets you say $215k per patent. They have (11,123 patents x $215,000)+ 778 million they spent on Nortel gets you a figure close to $3.2 billion for the patent portfolio. At the end of the day though this is all wild speculation, I think it's really really difficult to tell what value any of these patents have and I don't think they should be used to make your bear-case scenario for investing in RIMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 IMO One thing with patents is that with the way they are used, there's such a thing as enough. Google needed to spend big money because they didn't have enough (as a younger company without a culture of "here, fill as many of these forms as possible and then go spend a few days with the lawyers") and other companies who felt they didn't have enough for a particular sector (mobile) beefed up their portfolio. But once pretty much all the big players have reached the point of mutually assured destruction, why spend hundreds of millions for more of those possibly worthless things? That's what could cause de patent bubble to deflate, IMHO. Just an outsider's guess, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormR Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 IMO One thing with patents is that with the way they are used, there's such a thing as enough. Google needed to spend big money because they didn't have enough (as a younger company without a culture of "here, fill as many of these forms as possible and then go spend a few days with the lawyers") and other companies who felt they didn't have enough for a particular sector (mobile) beefed up their portfolio. But once pretty much all the big players have reached the point of mutually assured destruction, why spend hundreds of millions for more of those possibly worthless things? That's what could cause de patent bubble to deflate, IMHO. Just an outsider's guess, though. Ah, but would you want them to fall into the hands of a patent "troll"? There are a few that might love to get their hands or RIM's patents. In which case, "MAD" doesn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Ah, but would you want them to fall into the hands of a patent "troll"? There are a few that might love to get their hands or RIM's patents. In which case, "MAD" doesn't work. I don't think patent trolls are starving for patents, or even caring very much about what the actual patents are, because their business model is mostly to extort money without going to court to justify the patents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 IMO One thing with patents is that with the way they are used, there's such a thing as enough. Google needed to spend big money because they didn't have enough (as a younger company without a culture of "here, fill as many of these forms as possible and then go spend a few days with the lawyers") and other companies who felt they didn't have enough for a particular sector (mobile) beefed up their portfolio. But once pretty much all the big players have reached the point of mutually assured destruction, why spend hundreds of millions for more of those possibly worthless things? That's what could cause de patent bubble to deflate, IMHO. Just an outsider's guess, though. Ah, but would you want them to fall into the hands of a patent "troll"? There are a few that might love to get their hands or RIM's patents. In which case, "MAD" doesn't work. I think it would be cheaper to challenge the patents in court rather than pay $5B for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Can anyone explain why they are having trouble with earnings given that the overall subscriber base is still growing? Is it that international operations are much less profitable than NA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Lots of parallels here: http://www.theverge.com/2012/6/5/3062611/palm-webos-hp-inside-story-pre-postmortem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Last week I bought a: a 3 mpx digital camera, a 5 mpx digital camera, two 1080p hi-def video cameras, a Netbook with a Dual Core processor, a GPS, a Full colour Kobo and a Kindle eReader, And much more... Got it all for $199 in a BB Playbook 2.0 Tech support is what tech support should be. Little or no wait time on hold and the techs are well trained and speak perfect English. The tablet itself seems very well built. I am over 100% satisfied especially considering the price I paid and can’t figure out what all the complaining is about. One has to wonder how many of those complaining actually own Playbooks or did they just read what someone else had to say. I am now seriously considering upgrading my phone to a Blackberry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Last week I bought a: a 3 mpx digital camera, a 5 mpx digital camera, two 1080p hi-def video cameras, a Netbook with a Dual Core processor, a GPS, a Full colour Kobo and a Kindle eReader, And much more... Got it all for $199 in a BB Playbook 2.0 Tech support is what tech support should be. Little or no wait time on hold and the techs are well trained and speak perfect English. The tablet itself seems very well built. I am over 100% satisfied especially considering the price I paid and can’t figure out what all the complaining is about. One has to wonder how many of those complaining actually own Playbooks or did they just read what someone else had to say. I am now seriously considering upgrading my phone to a Blackberry. Upgrading from what? There are lots of Android tablets out there with those (or better specs) at around the same price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 “There are lots of Android tablets out there with those (or better specs) at around the same price” Well the only tablet from a recognized brand name I found sold in Canada under two hundred bucks was the Lenovo IdeaPad. Could well be others, I just didn't find them. But the Lenovo seems to come up short in a lot of areas such as: 512 RAM vs 1gb RAM, single core processor versus dual core one 3mp camera vs one 3mp and one 5mp camera no video vs two 1080p video cameras no GP no HDMI 7 hr battery vs a 10 hr battery Also I don’t know where their tech support is located but I really find it difficult trying to get tech support from someone speaking broken English. So the Playbook would look to come up pretty good in that comparisson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I'm a rookie when it comes to tablets, iPad, Playbook etc. Why do you need 2 cameras and 2 video recorders, one in front and one behind? ..................and why wouldn't both cams be 5 mp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 "I'm a rookie when it comes to tablets, iPad, Playbook etc. Why do you need 2 cameras and 2 video recorders, one in front and one behind? ..................and why wouldn't both cams be 5 mp?" I'm a rookie too, but I guess the one facing the user is for Skype, etc so it doesn't need much resolution as your face is only a short distance away. The one on the other side is for taking pictures and videos of whatever. At least I think that's the theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 “There are lots of Android tablets out there with those (or better specs) at around the same price” Well the only tablet from a recognized brand name I found sold in Canada under two hundred bucks was the Lenovo IdeaPad. Could well be others, I just didn't find them. But the Lenovo seems to come up short in a lot of areas such as: 512 RAM vs 1gb RAM, single core processor versus dual core one 3mp camera vs one 3mp and one 5mp camera no video vs two 1080p video cameras no GP no HDMI 7 hr battery vs a 10 hr battery Also I don’t know where their tech support is located but I really find it difficult trying to get tech support from someone speaking broken English. So the Playbook would look to come up pretty good in that comparisson. do they have nice apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I'd like to know how you can value the patents at 5 B$ mini, what your criterias are, thanks in advance. At the same time, RIMM acquired 17% of Nortel's patents in that sale, and those patents did sell at an average price of $750K per patent, so I think that would be the bottom. Why is that the bottom? Ok, let's not get rhetorical here. We could assume then that people might not even pay $1 a patent...would that seem reasonable to you? At the same time, we could also assume that someone might pay far more than Microsoft's $1.25M per patent price? Would that seem accurate or reasonable? All I did was use the average from the last two sales. Whether that is the price that RIMM would get we don't know, but seems a much more plausible and accurate estimate than pulling numbers out of thin air, or choosing to assume that their patents are worth far less than Nortel's or AOL's. Cheers! Might be time to reconsider those valuations: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303296604577454763293305418.html http://gigaom.com/mobile/famous-judge-spikes-apple-google-case-calls-patent-system-dysfunctional/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 "I'm a rookie when it comes to tablets, iPad, Playbook etc. Why do you need 2 cameras and 2 video recorders, one in front and one behind? ..................and why wouldn't both cams be 5 mp?" I'm a rookie too, but I guess the one facing the user is for Skype, etc so it doesn't need much resolution as your face is only a short distance away. The one on the other side is for taking pictures and videos of whatever. At least I think that's the theory. Ah, I hadn't thought about that, it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
premfan Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 In America change occurs every 4 or so years. It takes 4 years on average to finish college. Bascially anyone or any company can transform itself but, it takes time. The only variable is will it survive? If Rim is around in 4 years this is a absolute no brainer of a investment. Its going to take 3-5 years for rim to transform itself. With prem on board odds are they will survive. Rim will either transform or die. In around 4 years we will know the verdict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5E8HO1C620120624?irpc=932 RIMM may split in two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainman Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Morgan stanley analyst thinks they're going to come in way below estimates.. http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57459748-94/analyst-sees-rim-losing-90-percent-of-workers/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 RIM now below US$9. Parsad, you said you would buy at $5, you may have to open up that wallet at the rate this thing is falling ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yp Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Last week I bought a: a 3 mpx digital camera, a 5 mpx digital camera, two 1080p hi-def video cameras, a Netbook with a Dual Core processor, a GPS, a Full colour Kobo and a Kindle eReader, And much more... Got it all for $199 in a BB Playbook 2.0 Tech support is what tech support should be. Little or no wait time on hold and the techs are well trained and speak perfect English. The tablet itself seems very well built. I am over 100% satisfied especially considering the price I paid and can’t figure out what all the complaining is about. One has to wonder how many of those complaining actually own Playbooks or did they just read what someone else had to say. I am now seriously considering upgrading my phone to a Blackberry. YES! It actually is a great product; especially at that price! Just shows that irrationality isn't just limited to the stock market... I'm quite sure that a significant number of the iPad buyers/users out there don't even know of the playbook. Many of the iPad buyers I personally know have very limited use for the device (browser, youtube, email... maybe the occasional game of angrybirds) that they would have been much better off with a playbook (financially). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Many of the iPad buyers I personally know have very limited use for the device (browser, youtube, email... maybe the occasional game of angrybirds) that they would have been much better off with a playbook (financially). I love my iPad, and in addition to web browsing and apps, it has become my primary way of reading books. Last I checked, the playbook does not even have a Kindle app. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Last week I bought a: a 3 mpx digital camera, a 5 mpx digital camera, two 1080p hi-def video cameras, a Netbook with a Dual Core processor, a GPS, a Full colour Kobo and a Kindle eReader, And much more... Got it all for $199 in a BB Playbook 2.0 Tech support is what tech support should be. Little or no wait time on hold and the techs are well trained and speak perfect English. The tablet itself seems very well built. I am over 100% satisfied especially considering the price I paid and can’t figure out what all the complaining is about. One has to wonder how many of those complaining actually own Playbooks or did they just read what someone else had to say. I am now seriously considering upgrading my phone to a Blackberry. YES! It actually is a great product; especially at that price! Just shows that irrationality isn't just limited to the stock market... I'm quite sure that a significant number of the iPad buyers/users out there don't even know of the playbook. Many of the iPad buyers I personally know have very limited use for the device (browser, youtube, email... maybe the occasional game of angrybirds) that they would have been much better off with a playbook (financially). You should look at the number of people developing apps and the no of app downloads. That'll give you an idea of what people are using it for. App developers are not crazy to invest in developing for a platform that is seeing no usage. On last count, Apple paid out about $4B to app developers on IOS. That is 70% of what users have spent on apps so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 What about the new Google Nexus 7 tablet that's going for the same $199 price? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 RIM now below US$9. Parsad, you said you would buy at $5, you may have to open up that wallet at the rate this thing is falling ;D I will if it gets down there! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 What about the new Google Nexus 7 tablet that's going for the same $199 price? For that price, it's a pretty damn good product. I didn't consider the Playbook because of the long-term support issues and lack of apps, but I will probably take a really good look at the Nexus 7 before considering an iPad or Surface. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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