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I don't think people (and media) are using the term DEATH SPIRAL enough...  ;)

 

I expected a bit more excitement about RIM being at this price ($7.49 CAD) from the members of this board...

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Ouch.  Not good timing.

 

More bad news on the developers front:

http://allthingsd.com/20120713/rim-is-bleeding-developers/

 

It's very important for RIM to be realistic, and keeping developers at least thinking about porting apps to BB10 is key to them having any chance at having adoption of their platform. 

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I don't think people (and media) are using the term DEATH SPIRAL enough...  ;)

 

I expected a bit more excitement about RIM being at this price ($7.49 CAD) from the members of this board...

 

I would think it makes more sense to wait until November and reassess then.  Tax loss selling season.  Unless you think it will be taken private.  And we all know what happens when FFH allows holdings to go private. 

 

I would only buy when it is worth much less than their alleged patent portfolio - at least half todays market cap.

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I don't think people (and media) are using the term DEATH SPIRAL enough...  ;)

 

I expected a bit more excitement about RIM being at this price ($7.49 CAD) from the members of this board...

 

I would think it makes more sense to wait until November and reassess then.  Tax loss selling season.  Unless you think it will be taken private.  And we all know what happens when FFH allows holdings to go private. 

 

I would only buy when it is worth much less than their alleged patent portfolio - at least half todays market cap.

 

Honestly speaking, in my limited knowledge of the stock market, FFH and pretty much everything... I'm not sure what usually happens when FFH holdings go private?

 

And as for the price... at this rate, it seems that it may get to that point pretty soon (half of the market cap from a few days ago) haha.

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Yp, look up the thread on fbk.  Ffh has been involved in taking a number of companies private.  They certainly wont be overpaying to take Rim private, should that be the outcome, and at this juncture it is a distinct possibility.  Rim would benefit from some shelter from the market mayhem while they unroll future stategies, whatever those may be.  Prem is  a board member.  Barb Stymiest is a smart woman. 

 

As a private company they wouldn't have to share sales figures, profit/loss numbers, usage numbers etc.  As to critiques or Mr. Heins, we need to understand his job definition.  I would call him The public face, or more aptly in this case: The Whipping Boy.  While I think that He is perhaps instilling badly needed fiscal discipline, I dont think he has alot to do with the companies actual strategy.  That is still very much in Lazaridis's and perhaps the boards hands. 

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http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-blackberry-woes-20120720,0,5286604.story

BlackBerry's Research in Motion insists it's not in a "death spiral," but that isn't stopping many companies from preparing — just in case.

 

Most analysts who have been following the Canadian smartphone maker don't think the company will go out of business soon. Still, some companies that have relied on the BlackBerry for years are starting to hand out other smartphones to their employees.

 

Suffolk Construction Co. in Boston has been a RIM customer for more than a decade, but now it is looking to switch most of its 700 BlackBerry-equipped employees to iPhones by the end of the year.

 

"We had plans to move in that direction, and with the recent news that's been out about RIM lately, we've accelerated our plans," said Corren Collura, the company's chief information officer.

 

RIM's troubles underscore how a ubiquitous technology could lose its cachet so quickly. Until the last few years, businesses and government organizations looking to supply employees with mobile devices went almost exclusively with BlackBerry.

 

Two years ago, BlackBerry devices accounted for nearly 42% of all smartphones in the U.S. That's fallen to barely over 11% as Apple and Android-based smartphone makers continued to roll out new features and apps.

 

Some companies began planning for a non-BlackBerry workforce after RIM announced last month that smartphone shipments dropped by nearly half in the first quarter and posted a worse-than-expected $518-million loss. The company also delayed the launch of its BlackBerry 10 line of phones and said it would lay off about a third of its staff as part of its $1-billion cost-saving plan.

 

In a media blitz this month after the poor earnings report, RIM chief Thorsten Heins told a Canadian radio show that "there is nothing wrong with the company" and that it's not in a "death spiral."

 

RIM still has loads of cash — about $2 billion — and no debt, but analyst Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee said those strong financial numbers have done little to inspire confidence among its customers. He estimates that the company's cash may only last a year or two. "They could burn through that cash pretty quickly," he said.

 

The lack of new smartphone offerings has been harmful to RIM, said Michael Holt, an analyst with Morningstar. He called the delay of BlackBerry 10 "almost inexcusable," given the rate at which competitors are taking up market share. "If they fail to roll out compelling new devices quickly, they're not going to survive," he said.

 

Though it is losing retail consumers, RIM continues to have a major footprint among corporate customers. The company counts 90% of the Fortune 500 as customers and continues to operate a major network of servers to service the phones, about 250,000 in all.

 

Pete Devenyi, senior vice president of RIM's enterprise software business, said the company is communicating directly with its corporate customers, some of whom have expressed concerns about RIM's future.

 

"They desperately want us to succeed, and that's important for us to know," Devenyi said. "They don't want to give up their BlackBerrys, and they're looking for reassurance that we have a clear strategy."

 

BlackBerry's woes have spawned a cottage industry of firms that help companies make the transition to other mobile devices. A recent report by research groupGartner Inc.counted dozens of companies that offer mobile device management services for businesses and governments looking to switch.

 

AirWatch LLC in Atlanta said it has 3,000 customers and is growing at a rate of 500 customers per month. The company has gone from 150 to 700 employees in the last 18 months, and expects to break 2,000 by the end of next year, said Alan Dabbiere, the chairman of AirWatch.

 

"In the last couple months — really in the last weeks since RIM's announcement — we've seen CIOs looking at this from a strategic and defensive posture," Dabbiere said.

 

He said he would expect a potential RIM wind-down to go smoothly, but CIOs he has talked to are still preparing for the unlikely event of a "catastrophic" downfall. "CIOs are saying, I can't switch gears with these devices overnight," he said.

 

David Satterwhite, vice president of Americas sales for device management company Good Technology, said his company's customers typically have three-year plans to make a transition from RIM. Now some of his customers are looking to make the move in six months.

 

"We feel very fortunate to be in the right place at the right time," he said. "No one wishes anything ill for RIM, but it certainly is an interesting time for us."

 

Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. is letting employees bring their own mobile devices for work. Nationwide had 8,500 BlackBerrys a little over a year ago and now has about 7,000, said Bob J. Burkhart, director of new technology innovation at Nationwide. "If you had asked me a couple years ago, 'Are you going to use personal smartphones in the office?' I would've said, 'No, you're crazy,'" he said.

 

Publicly traded forest resource companyRayonier Inc.had been a loyal BlackBerry customer for years. But in light of the difficulties with BlackBerry's servers and the company's inability to produce a competitive phone, the Florida-based conglomerate decided to switch its 400 smartphone users to iPhones. "We just couldn't go on faith anymore," said Rayonier's IT Director Adam Rasner.

 

The company started its transition in May and is about a third of the way done.

 

For Rasner, the transition from BlackBerry has been a reluctant one. "I really thought somewhere they were going to turn it around," Rasner said. "They were the king of the castle, and they blew it."

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Prem pushes more chips to the center of the table...

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-23/rim-holder-fairfax-doubles-stake-in-blackberry-maker.html

 

RIM Holder Fairfax Doubles Stake in BlackBerry Maker

 

Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) shareholder Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH) almost doubled its stake in the BlackBerry maker, increasing its holdings in a vote of confidence in a company struggling to revive sales.

 

Fairfax, an insurer run by Canadian investor Prem Watsa, owns 51.9 million RIM shares, according to a regulatory filing today. It held 26.8 million shares as of April 1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The company raised its stake to 9.9 percent, worth about $351 million.

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Very interesting. 

 

I wonder if FFH is going to be pulled into the gravitational pull of RIM's stock price.  Could give people who are interested a very interesting opportunity to accumulate FFH shares.

 

I was wondering the same thing txlaw. FFH just isn't interesting today. The company needs to be viewed as terrible underwriters and investors before we'll get a bargain price again. :)

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Very interesting. 

 

I wonder if FFH is going to be pulled into the gravitational pull of RIM's stock price.  Could give people who are interested a very interesting opportunity to accumulate FFH shares.

 

I was wondering the same thing txlaw. FFH just isn't interesting today. The company needs to be viewed as terrible underwriters and investors before we'll get a bargain price again. :)

 

Agreed!  I want to own some FFH, and I just can't justify it at this time given all these other opportunities that are available.

 

Crossing my fingers.

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I'm curious whether Prem would want anything to do with this company if they were not a Canadian company.

 

Prem keeps mentioning how strong of a brand Blackberry has. Does Blackberry still have a strong brand in Canada? I don't know how strong their brand is globally, but their brand has deteriorated and has almost become a joke here in the U.S..

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Prem keeps mentioning how strong of a brand Blackberry has. Does Blackberry still have a strong brand in Canada? I don't know how strong their brand is globally, but their brand has deteriorated and has almost become a joke here in the U.S..

 

Can't speak for whether RIM is a joke in Canada among consumers, though I suspect the Canadian government won't be ditching RIM anytime soon.

 

The brand is still pretty strong abroad.  Indeed, the subscriber base is still growing abroad.  If BB10 actually is a good OS and if RIM continues to be carrier-friendly, it's possible that there will be good adoption abroad even if it is DOA in North America.

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  3-4 years if company survives= homerun

3-4 years if cant stabilze will be sold

 

Current reality = majority thinks company will die.

 

george soros on making money " discount the obvious. " Bet on the unexpected"

 

no position yet

 

write this on my iphone :)

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Another article from Forbes about RIMM, Prem and Fairfax.

 

 

Prem Watsa Doubled Down on Research-In-Motion, Again

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gurufocus/2012/07/23/prem-watsa-doubled-down-on-research-in-motion-again/

 

Prem Watsa started buying RIMM in the third quarter of 2010, when the stock was traded at $50s and has declined 60% from its peak in 2008. The stock has since lost another 90% while Prem Watsa kept buying. His average cost was about $26 a share before the latest purchase. The latest purchase in June brings his cost per share to high teens, which is still significantly higher than its current price of just below $7 a share.

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I wish RIMM holders good luck - the next few months will define how this company lasts. If not, even a breakup value or license deal would be a windfall at current prices. I own NOK shares for similar reasons but still believe it is a higher quality brand and company going forward. I hope these companies are able to take on Android as they are the major threat to the business models Apple and RIMM make money from.

 

Android is really the biggest threat to all mobile companies and operators.

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