BB - BlackBerry

[FlyingArrow]

 

My wife can text, much to my dismay, about 70 words a minute on that thing.  It's out of control.  Sometimes I get 4 texts in 10 seconds, all telling me how much a POS I am, before I can respond to the first one!  That's not technology, that's just ridiculous.

 

 

That's funny. And way too familiar....

 

On a more serious note:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Research-In-Motion-Provides-iw-1722042651.html?x=0&.v=1

 

Looks like there will be a buying opportunity...... Or Bronco will be proven right!

 

I will stick to the former. But will watch the proceedings very closely.

 

[ericd1]

I read somewhere the OS in the Playbook is going to be used in future release of phones...

 

http://crackberry.com/    @7 April 3:03PM post

 

"We've now received word from numerous sources that next week at BlackBerry World we'll see BlackBerry 6.1 now be unveiled as BlackBerry 7. And no, it won't be QNX-based so don't get your hopes up for that...Keep in mind on our 2011 roadmap we also saw references to a "lite" version of BlackBerry 6.1 - so hopefully that means we'll still seem solid updates come to current BlackBerry 6 devices.

 

And I guess this news means that BlackBerry 8 is now the QNX-based phone OS a lot of us will be waiting for (though we keep hearing these new phones are super sweet so I'm still looking forward to BlackBerry 7).  Ahh well, I'm sure we'll know more soon, so keep it locked to CrackBerry.com as we hit Orlando for BlackBerry World next week!" 

 

http://www.pcworld.com/article/206520/playbook_tablet_os_might_move_to_blackberry_phones.html  (older post 9/10)

 

"The OS on the PlayBook, dubbed the BlackBerry Tablet OS, is a result of RIM's acquisition of QNX, which makes operating systems for mobile devices. The QNX OS on the PlayBook looks like a mash-up of Palm's WebOS and BlackBerry OS 6. It is supposed to improve stability, power consumption and have richer multimedia capabilities (Adobe Flash support, 3D rendering) - all some great potential additions to BlackBerry phones."

 

Also read where some pundit thought the reason why there isn't email on the Playbook was because to the time it would take corporate IT departments to vet the device...With tethering I presume there's nothing left on the tablet, which would make security a non-issue.

[Guest Bronco]

What's the expression - I wasn't right, I was early.

 

Still hope RIMM goes to the moon and wish you guys many fortunes on the stock.

 

 

[S2S]

Also read where some pundit thought the reason why there isn't email on the Playbook was because to the time it would take corporate IT departments to vet the device...With tethering I presume there's nothing left on the tablet, which would make security a non-issue.

 

If that's indeed the case (email is non-essential to company-purchased tablets),  it stands to reason that Apple's 1+ year headstart has already won them significant shares in the corporate market that used to be RIM's.

 

In fact the data is already here; over 80% of Fortune 500 companies are testing or using the iPad, and the number seems to inch up everyday: http://www.macnn.com/articles/11/01/18/number.up.from.earliest.figure.of.50.percent/

 

And what about the fact that margin on the Playbook is lower than on the phones?

 

Disclosure: neither long or short RIM. I'm actually a loyal BB customer, albeit one willing to play devil's advocate to the theory that the iPad is only for "play".

[Guest broxburnboy]

The acquisition of QNX may well prove out to be the smartest move RIM has ever made. QNX has been around a long time, finding a niche in the market for embedded applications that run from ROM (read only memory) i.e. the applications are hard coded into the hardware. This makes this Operating System particularly suited for robotic and mobile devices since it doesn't need hard drives, complex processors, a lot of power consumption. It is super efficient, modular and above all secure (programs can only be overwritten or deleted by replacing the ROM chip).

As the name implies it is a derivative of UNIX (like MAC OS, LinuX,, IBM's AIX etc.) and consequently has a deep well of potential application programmers. It is an ideal platform to take advantage of the growing power and efficiency in Read Only Memory devices and RAM.

I believe that RIM has made the correct choice for its mobile OS going forward if for no other reason than the extra security that will resonate in the corporate mobile computing market. This is a long range strategic choice from which RIM may suffer in the short term but pay off big time in subsequent devices IMHO.

[Stone19]

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/RIM-moves-Q1-guidance-due-capress-2723012259.html?x=0

 

This is gonna hurt.Cheers

[Viking]

Stone, yes, not what one wants to hear. I love where RIM is going and I believe they have lots of potential (i.e. QNX is the real deal). RBC has always said execution is key with RIM and it looks as though it is getting worse. What happens in the near term? Disappointing earnings means the shares sell off!

 

I do not see Q2 results getting much better; it will all hinge on when the new phones (now called 7.0 - not QNX phones) are approved. Management said the phones are largely done; they are now debugging and trying to get certification completed with the carriers; delay is a couple of weeks from Q1 quidance presented a month ago.

 

With so much going on at RIM (playbook, 7.0 phones, QNX phones next year) I wonder if they have too much on their plate.

 

The strange part is the actually stuck to $7.50/share full year guidance; I do not know what to make of this. I will wait and see what they announce Monday morning at blackberry World... if it is not strong I may have to rethink things.

 

[Guest VAL9000]

I do not see Q2 results getting much better; it will all hinge on when the new phones (now called 7.0 - not QNX phones) are approved. Management said the phones are largely done; they are now debugging and trying to get certification completed with the carriers; delay is a couple of weeks from Q1 quidance presented a month ago.

 

I'm curious about this phone OS changeover.  Won't all BlackBerry application developers have to rewrite their applications in order to support the new QNX OS?

 

[Guest Bronco]

This value play became more of a value play.

 

How many people are loading up at $49USD?

 

 

[DCG]

People were saying how good a value it was when the stock went from $150 to $125.

[Guest Bronco]

I just want to see who comes clean and states their buying.  Nothing wrong with it, but I'd be interested to hear who is buying tons now versus having it pop 2 weeks from now and everyone saying look at how much I made.

 

Even I may take a look at this now.  But I need to do some work.

 

A lot of crappy tech stocks are cheap.  Clearly out of favor with Wall Street. 

[FlyingArrow]

This value play became more of a value play.

 

How many people are loading up at $49USD?

 

 

 

Buying some more. I wouldn't say "loading up" as I'm  pretty loaded already having bought between the previous high 40's and high 50's. Averaging down a bit more. Lord help me...  :P

[Guest Bronco]

Flying, poision arrow - time will tell.  I hope you have conviction, patience, and time whereby the stock jumps back up to $60 in the near future.

[DCG]

My issue with RIMM (beyond their current product line) is that I don't think their brand currently adds much to their intrinsic value. They had a very strong brand, but tarnished it though a long-term (tech wise) lack of innovation and now a lot of people are embarrassed to buy/own their products, which is never good.

 

From a valuation perspective, yeah, it's cheap based on current earnings, but Apple (for comparison) is selling at only around 12X future expected earnings (which they always blow past), not including their cash. While tech earnings are tough to describe as predictable, Apple's product diversity helps make them a bit more predictable than other tech companies. Who knows what RIMM's future will be like. They need a huge innovation to help try to re-establish BB as a valuable brand, but all they seem to be doing is trying to play catch-up, and are even struggling with that.

[CONeal]

This value play became more of a value play.

 

How many people are loading up at $49USD?

 

 

 

I bought a few shares under $49 today.  Would like to pick some more up at a lower price if time and money allows.

 

The biggest lesson I learned on SD was when the entire market hates your company, be patient, the market will try to give the company away.

[Uccmal]

I bought some today.  Not loading up by any means.  Volatile stock.  I have followed RIM off and on since about a year before the NTP patent settlement (2004/05).  On the Yahoo and Bullboards you had the same discussions as we are having here, back then.  Except the competition was different then with Palm, Nokia, & Motorola.  Now its AAPL and Google, arguably more fearsome.

 

They have cut their Earnings estimate by about 100 M and the stock has lost 3.5 B in market cap today. 

[Guest bengrahamofthenorth]

I haven't bought any RIM yet, I don't think they get how much their products need to be improved to compete with Apple and Android. Also, I just can't stand Balsilli being so bullish on TV. His and Lazaridis's ownership in the company have fallen over the last 3 years and its more than just charitable selling. I understand the diversification argument but it just doesn't sit well with me when he has that massive grin on TV. Also, the co-ceo roles and NHL team might explain some of the poor execution at the company. I do think the new operating system will be a plus, but I am still on the sidelines for now.

[Smazz]

Put in my low ball order.

 

First purchase of RIM.

[cwericb]

Just took that money I expected to lose today on FFH & subsidised a little purchase of RIM. Why not, kinda thought it was lost money this morning anyway  :)

For all the doom and gloom, I don't think they are going to fade away just yet.

[Guest Bronco]

Bengrahammother - which one of those guys (co-CEOs) is Vin Diesel? 

 

Send IR an email that he needs P90x, otherwise XXX sequels will flop.

[Smazz]

Just took that money I expected to lose today on FFH &

are you meaning on the first Q #s in general or just as per their holding in Rim.

 

P.S> who was it that posted FFH comments on Rim? Or was it just something that was talked about at their meeting? Sorry cant remember as I was not at the meeting this year.

TIA

[Viking]

Does anyone have an opinion on why RIM did not take down their $7.50 earnings estimate for this fiscal year? This is the real head scratcher for me. Bronco, please feel free to let me have it!  ;)

 

Q1 (Mar-May) they now KNOW they will earn about $1.35/share. They also said Q2 (Jun-Aug) will be weak as they are a couple of weeks behind with the new 7.0 phone launches and carriers do not want to launch new devices in the slow summer months. To hit $7.50 they must feel playbook sales will meet/exceed initial estimates and the new phones are going to cause a surge in sales in Q3 (Sep-Nov).

 

By lowering Q1 guidance $0.15/share they knew the stock would get crushed. RIM had a free pass to take down their annual guidance (i.e. I do not thing the stock would get crushed any more). No one believed they would hit their annual guidance of $7.50/share (provided when they released Q1 results). Now it is getting a little comical.

 

Either there is a lot more going on behind the scenes than we realize (which I have a hard time believing given RIM seems to leak everything in advance) or they are getting really desperate (and will be shortly taking down their annual earnings estimate) which will result in more loss of confidence (can it actually go lower???).

 

One positive is playbook looks to be selling OK (but all the comments have been so general you can interpret them however you want). The big negative watchout for me was the comment of slow sales in Latin America... if this is the beginning of their International markets starting to underperform to APPLE Android that we are seeing in North America then I will need to rethink things.

 

They certainly know how to set the table for Blackberry World starting Monday!

 

PS: when listening to the conference call yesterday I was struck at the beginning of the call by the long, long list of risk factors they went through... it almost sounded like they were making sure they covered their ass from a legal perspective really, really well should they miss their annual forecast. Funny what you hear in times like these. Life certainly is full of lessons!

 

 

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

The acquisition of QNX may well prove out to be the smartest move RIM has ever made. QNX has been around a long time, finding a niche in the market for embedded applications that run from ROM (read only memory) i.e. the applications are hard coded into the hardware. This makes this Operating System particularly suited for robotic and mobile devices since it doesn't need hard drives, complex processors, a lot of power consumption. It is super efficient, modular and above all secure (programs can only be overwritten or deleted by replacing the ROM chip).

As the name implies it is a derivative of UNIX (like MAC OS, LinuX,, IBM's AIX etc.) and consequently has a deep well of potential application programmers. It is an ideal platform to take advantage of the growing power and efficiency in Read Only Memory devices and RAM.

I believe that RIM has made the correct choice for its mobile OS going forward if for no other reason than the extra security that will resonate in the corporate mobile computing market. This is a long range strategic choice from which RIM may suffer in the short term but pay off big time in subsequent devices IMHO.

Excuse me, I don't know very much about phones, but what has this got to do with an investment thesis? Firstly, in the scheme of OS's what percentage of mobile users have a QNX phone? Secondly, we have applications, the iphone has hundreds of thousands of applications, Android probably not far behind, trailing them you have tons of competitors (Windows, Nokia, Motorola, etc.). Considering the massive head start that the Iphone and Android has, do you really think that it can beat the likes of Iphone or Android in terms of getting developers working on it and applications out? How many of the other cell phone makers have got on board with QNX? If they want market share and the benefits of scale, they would need a few of the major manufacturers producing devices with the OS on it. What's the killer app going to be? For the Noughties, it was all about e-mail. That advantage is rapidly disappearing though as mobile devices begin to offer an even fuller suite of functionality.

 

Again, I am not a technical person, but when I look at RIM, I think of the likes of Gateway Computers, Kodak and Palm. These companies were absolute monsters in their industries, however, as technology moved on, their businesses withered. When I heard a quote from RIM executives saying that corporations were "delaying" their smart phone upgrades, I laughed. At work, we recently got our first consignments of Iphones and Ipads, senior management are all absolutely delighted with their new toys and drawers are filling up with Blackberrys. All around me, I see people moving away from Blackberry. When I chat with friends, the talk is always about the Iphone 5, and to a lesser extent, the likes of the HTC and Android. The remaining people who have Blackberry's talk of getting the new Iphone.

 

I don't see anything to suggest that in ten years time, RIM won't be bought out like Palm or Gateway for about $1 billion.

[Guest bengrahamofthenorth]

Bengrahammother - which one of those guys (co-CEOs) is Vin Diesel? 

 

Send IR an email that he needs P90x, otherwise XXX sequels will flop.

 

That's Jim Balsillie, He's gotten back in shape for Fast & the Furious 5.

[Stone19]

Do you think there is a chance of some new top execs at RIM.These guys have brought it this far maybe RIM needs someone else to take it to a different level.