BB - BlackBerry

[S2S]

I will wait and see what they announce Monday morning at blackberry World... if it is not strong I may have to rethink things.

http://www.engadget.com/2011/04/29/blackberry-bold-touch-makes-brief-appearance-on-rims-website/

 

I'm sure the Bold Touch is only part of the new lineup, and it's only one man's opinion, but neither the phone nor the rebranded (and destined for obsolescence) OS 7 screams "innovation".

 

I would post my thoughts in more depth, but Ballinvarosig Investors beat me to it, and did so with more eloquence.

 

What I can contribute, however, is a few numbers. In a conference call last October, Apple's CEO Tim Cook said that 80% of Fortune 500 companies are trying out the iPhone to varying degrees, including General Electric Co., Procter & Gamble Co., Allstate Corp. and Pfizer Inc. If memory recalls, the same figure sat at 30%ish in early 2009.

 

The funny thing is that until recently, the move was mostly driven by employees. Once IT departments and the bean counters figure out how much their companies could save by cutting out RIMM's not inexpensive BBIS service, watch out. Actually, never mind what I just said, it has already happened. The larger Wall St banks, notorious for keeping a tight grip on intra-organization communication, are switching.

[cwericb]

"are you meaning on the first Q #s in general or just as per their holding in Rim"  - - Smazz, just Q1 #s.

 

When I first looked at FFH this morning it was down $20. Wasn't all that surprised after Q1 #s and the tornado damage in the South. But I was surprised how quickly it bounced back so, since I sort of mentally wrote off $20/ share, I Matched that $20 and bought some RIM. Not a lot, but it just seemed a chance to pick up some shares at what seems to be a pretty good price. There are some pretty smart people who still have faith in this company.

 

I wonder if FFH may have put some more money here today. Somebody was buying. I have a few dollars managed by Foyston Gordon & Payne and they have done not a bad job over the past year. Recently they have been increasing the amount in RIM. It didn't show up in my account until the end of the day, but I see that they increased the RIM holding by about 30% when it hit $46.29. I got in at a little below that. I am also wondering why RIM wouldn't have adjusted the year end numbers.

 

People often tend to overeact on bad news, perhaps that is the case here.

[ERICOPOLY]

This comment may not be terribly useful to anyone, but RIMM trades at 6.5x cash flow and HPQ trades at 7.5x cash flow.   RIMM trades at 8.5x FCF and HPQ trades at 10.47x FCF.  

 

I am long HPQ, no RIMM.  HPQ's path in life going forward seems easier to me.

 

Seeing this comment, is it still ridiculously obvious that you'd want a RIMM position instead of a HPQ position, if you could only choose one or the other?

 

I was a Blackberry user for several years only because I was with Verizon and they didn't have IPhones yet.  They had Android but I wanted an IPhone.  The Blackberry felt like a dinosaur so I switched to AT&T and got an IPhone4 last summer.  Now that Verizon is offering IPhones what does that mean for the Verizon Blackberry users who now have a choice?  

[EdWatchesBoxing]

Bengrahammother - which one of those guys (co-CEOs) is Vin Diesel? 

 

Send IR an email that he needs P90x, otherwise XXX sequels will flop.

 

Sorry in advance, but... how'd you get Bengrahammother from Bengrahamofthenorth?

 

I thought you were referring to the P90 gun, then I looked it up.

 

 

Seeing this comment, is it still ridiculously obvious that you'd want a RIMM position instead of a HPQ position, if you could only choose one or the other?

 

 

I agree, RIMM's market cap is less than half of HPQ. The torch is a pretty good phone. I would choose the torch over the iphone. I can't stand the touch screen typing. I like the keypad on the touch. I am biased though. I will consider a WebOS, Android, or BB device over an Apple one.

[ERICOPOLY]

I can't stand the touch screen typing. I like the keypad on the touch.

 

I had exactly the same attitude but finally switched anyhow because I wanted the IPod player and ITunes integration.  Now I've adapted to the IPhone4 touch screen interface.  It's all my wife's fault... she bought an IPod and then bought a bunch of ITunes songs.  Then I realized I could download all of her songs to my PC.  But then I wanted a phone that could easily sync to ITunes.  Now she has an IPad and I wound up getting a MacBook Pro because the ITunes app just always hangs on my wife's PC (apple software bug) and I haven't been successful in explaining to her how to just terminate the process from task manager in Windows.  So now she can sync from the MacBook Pro to her iPod and iPhones without it hanging (and thus I don't get disturbed to fix it for her each time).  Apple has been very clever in selectively not fixing some problems -- led to a $1,000+ MacBook Pro sale.  And we got an IPad so that my kids can easily watch movies on the airplane flights to Australia.  No wonder they're trading at forward 12x P/E despite torrid share growth.  So I bought some AAPL shares finally in admiration for what cleverly evil bastards they've been to my family budget  :)

[EdWatchesBoxing]

Aww, man. You fell into the apple trap!

[Uccmal]

This bit of news is a stroke of genius on the part of RIM. 

 

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/05/02/blackberry-world-2011-rim-launches-enterprise-support-for-iphone-android/

 

 

[DCG]

This bit of news is a stroke of genius on the part of RIM. 

 

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/05/02/blackberry-world-2011-rim-launches-enterprise-support-for-iphone-android/

 

 

 

Interesting. Tough to tell if it's really a stroke of genius though. It almost sounds like they're going to almost throw in the towel on their core business and focus on being a network and security company (who knows what kind of margins they'd have on that type of business).

[shalab]

They should become a licensee of windows phone and cut the R&D budget.

[Myth465]

This bit of news is a stroke of genius on the part of RIM. 

 

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/05/02/blackberry-world-2011-rim-launches-enterprise-support-for-iphone-android/

 

 

 

I agree. This is ingenious. Regardless of the phones, if they keep the servers and licenses going it will keep them relevant and profitable. I am guessing the margins on that business are decent, and the phones pretty much just support that business. I could be completely wrong having never opened a 10k or 10q for them. Even if its the total reverse, better to be less profitable then none existent.

 

Either way a good move inmo.

[Guest VAL9000]

They should become a licensee of windows phone and cut the R&D budget.

 

I agree.  Go with WP7 or Android as the OS layer.  Shift the hardware coupling to email to a software coupling to email and offer it on the chosen platform.

 

Alternatively, cut out the hardware business and focus on the software platform.  i.e. license QNX + secure email to Nokia, HTC, etc.

 

Either option would consolidate the competitive advantage into one area.  Right now, they're spread too thin.

 

Heard on the radio today - "Some people compare RIM to a David and Goliath story, but really there are multiple Goliaths."  This really speaks to the competition RIM is up against MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, and HPQ.

 

 

[txlaw]

They should become a licensee of windows phone and cut the R&D budget.

 

Clearly, you are a big fan of Mr. Softee! ;)

 

I agree, though, RIMM should license either Win Phone or Android.  Given that they are trying to port Android apps onto their OS, it seems more likely that they would go with Android. 

[Smazz]

I dont see how it is a bad move. They cant control another start up phone competitor as has been evident but they seem to be the Cadillac (or should i say Mercedes) of this corner of the market.

[Guest Bronco]

Myth - I think everyone knows that the current RIM model is toast.  I have no doubt about that. 

 

The company appears to be racing to reinvent themselves.  They will make a lot of cash over the next couple years.  But whether RIM thrives in the future or dies, they will not look like they do now.

 

Apple and Google are clear winners. 

 

MSFT is probably really cheap but they also scare me.  I think I read it here that 1/2 their profits came from Microsoft Office.  Does that include Windows? 

 

People knock Apple and their products, but I don't get it.  The Iphone is light years of my previous Palm Treo.  But their products are facing immense competition, and slowly (maybe quickly) getting commoditized.  As a personal side not - I am thankful to Apple because they revolutionized music, tv watching, newspaper reading, tablets, computers, phones - you name it.  Unreal.

 

The question is what is next.  I am holding off on Apple until I know what's going on with all the server farms they built?  Will they build yet another new paradigm?

 

A company like Dell intrigues.  Can they just walk through the back door - providing IT services, commodity computer products, and servers?  I think they can. 

 

The smaller players will be where the action is at.  Citrix will get bought out by somebody.  MSFT? 

 

Blue Coat - do they have a role in all this?  Where are the techies?  And no more LVLT thread!

 

I still think GLW is interesting.  Their video has me excited about the future.  Who will most benefit from the chips inside glass?  When will that roll-out mainstream?

 

Very random thoughts - just waiting on this market right now.

 

[finetrader]

And no more LVLT thread!

  :D

 

[txlaw]

They should become a licensee of windows phone and cut the R&D budget.

 

Clearly, you are a big fan of Mr. Softee! ;)

 

I agree, though, RIMM should license either Win Phone or Android.  Given that they are trying to port Android apps onto their OS, it seems more likely that they would go with Android. 

 

I have to retract my comment about RIMM being more likely to go with Android.  They have just partnered with MSFT to make Bing the default search engine on Blackberry devices. 

 

I wonder how much RIMM is getting for that?

 

 

[txlaw]

The company appears to be racing to reinvent themselves.  They will make a lot of cash over the next couple years.  But whether RIM thrives in the future or dies, they will not look like they do now.

 

You are likely right about this.

 

Apple and Google are clear winners. 

 

Agreed.

 

MSFT is probably really cheap but they also scare me.  I think I read it here that 1/2 their profits came from Microsoft Office.  Does that include Windows? 

 

In order to value MSFT, you better understand their new product cycle and how margins and market share will be affected going forward.  For example, do some research into Bing, Surface, Kinect, Windows Azure, Office 365, etc.

 

People knock Apple and their products, but I don't get it.  The Iphone is light years of my previous Palm Treo.  But their products are facing immense competition, and slowly (maybe quickly) getting commoditized.  As a personal side not - I am thankful to Apple because they revolutionized music, tv watching, newspaper reading, tablets, computers, phones - you name it.  Unreal.

 

The question is what is next.  I am holding off on Apple until I know what's going on with all the server farms they built?  Will they build yet another new paradigm?

 

Apple is working to be a cloud platform provider, just like GOOG and MSFT.  The question is not if but when their platform is going to be released. 

 

Apple views itself as a software company that also develops hardware to provide the optimal experience for their software.  Steve Jobs and Co are true innovators.

 

A company like Dell intrigues.  Can they just walk through the back door - providing IT services, commodity computer products, and servers?  I think they can. 

 

Everyone who has read my posts knows what I think about DELL.

 

The smaller players will be where the action is at.  Citrix will get bought out by somebody.  MSFT? 

 

I think it's much riskier to go with the small players.  Large tech is a much sounder investment if you can understand what they do.

 

Blue Coat - do they have a role in all this?  Where are the techies?  And no more LVLT thread!

 

Don't know jack sh*! about Blue Coat. 

 

I still think GLW is interesting.  Their video has me excited about the future.  Who will most benefit from the chips inside glass?  When will that roll-out mainstream?

 

It's all marketing.  Who is to say that Corning glass will be necessary for future devices? 

 

Flexible OLEDs could make glass unnecessary in 10 years or so or, more likely, relegate the glass protecting OLED and e-ink screens to commodity status.

 

----------

 

How's that for some input? 

 

Now stop dissing my LVLT! ;D

 

 

 

[ERICOPOLY]

MSFT is probably really cheap but they also scare me.  I think I read it here that 1/2 their profits came from Microsoft Office.  Does that include Windows? 

 

Here is the operating income breakdown for the 9 months ended March 31, 2011:

 

Windows & Windows Live:  $9,338

Server & Tools:  $4,834

Online Services:  ($1,829)

Microsoft Business Division:  $10,506

Entertainment & Devices Division: $1,192

 

[Guest Bronco]

Texas Lawyer - I'll try to lay off of LVLT, but I must admit I cringe when a new post pops up.

 

Since you know more about MFST new products than I do - what do you think they will do?

 

You mentioned the cloud for Apple - but for what?  Social networking?  Gaming?  Netflix?  All of the above?  Store my music and movies?  Send my kids there so I can sleep?

 

I have no idea, but I am sure it will be interesting.

 

Can't argue the smaller players are more risky.  But there have only been a few Googles that start out as giant $30B companies.  Where are the next Googles coming from?  I think it is worth watching. 

 

I didn't see your posts on Dell, but what do you have against it?  I have taken a small position. 

 

BTW - I don't mind opposing views to mine - I'm not always right (always wrong if you ask the Mrs.)  Different views is good.  Just don't enjoy the LVLT views, good or bad (but I promised to lay off, so I digress).

 

 

[ericd1]

MSFT and RIM strike search deal...

 

MSFT's Bing search engine and mapping service will become the default options for BB devices...

[Guest Bronco]

No offense to anyone in the south, but this reeks of inbreeding.  As in a mother marrying her brother and having kids, with the spawn not looking so hot. 

 

I think of Harold and Kumar, v2.

 

That is Bing + BB

 

 

Another example that comes to mind is if you taken a frozen turd and lay on top of it a steaming turd.  I don't know the science here, whether the one turd will melt or there will be a PH balance of 0, but I know there will be one big turd.  Hence bing + BB.

 

 

[Guest VAL9000]

MSFT is probably really cheap but they also scare me.  I think I read it here that 1/2 their profits came from Microsoft Office.  Does that include Windows? 

In order to value MSFT, you better understand their new product cycle and how margins and market share will be affected going forward.  For example, do some research into Bing, Surface, Kinect, Windows Azure, Office 365, etc.

 

Since you know more about MFST new products than I do - what do you think they will do?

 

I'll offer my thoughts on this one.  Cloud delivery of applications / services is really, really, really important and it will change Microsoft's business model in a fundamental way.  MSFT will move from a one-time license sale model to a recurring revenue (subscription) model.  Office 365 and Azure offerings fall into this category.  The upside is that subscription revenue is more valuable than license revenue because the subscription revenue recurs vs. licenses that need to be resold  (compare XP and 7 vs. the dismal Vista sales figures..  it's not a given that they will sell).  Another plus is that it's a lot harder to pirate software that is served up online.  But there are risks, too.  The biggest risk I can think of is that of competition.  A paradigm shift in computing always makes new winners and new losers.  Microsoft is very well positioned, but Google has a competing offering, as do countless startups looking to eat Mister Softee's lunch.

 

My guess is that MSFT will transition from licensed software to cloud software over time, giving its customer base time to evaluate the merits of its online offering while not sacrificing their access to existing full-featured software packages.  As tastes change, the cloud model will become the leader with traditional licensing becoming the less favoured option for all parties.  (Office 365 looks like the former, whereas Google Appls looks like the latter.)

 

Apple is working to be a cloud platform provider, just like GOOG and MSFT.  The question is not if but when their platform is going to be released. 

 

It was already released, in the form of iTunes.  It just looks different than what GOOG and MSFT are offering because the part of the cloud they've built has a different focus.  Apple's cloud is a media cloud.  Today I can pull up a device and pay to access millions of songs, movies, tv shows, and apps.  It's delivered over the web and runs local to my device.  This is similar to Google Apps where the application is transmitted over the web and runs in my browser, or Office 365 where the app is installed on Windows and runs in conjunction with web services at Microsoft.  There are stark differences in these offerings, but if you squint your eyes they all look the same.

 

As far as new products go, I bet that Apple TV will become a real thing.

[Guest Bronco]

I agree on the Apple TV.  The version I have will be built in, and made more awesome.

 

 

[DCG]

Tough to say with Apple TV. If they decide to make it more than a 'hobby', I'm sure they could come up with a great product, but I'm not sure what exactly it would do that other products don't do. These type of tv boxes have value in allowing people to stream content from places like Netflix, Youtube and more (I've thought about getting an Apple TV just to stream mlb.tv), as well as being a full DVR (Apple would have to licence that technology from TIVO - come to think of it, them just buying TIVO for their IP wouldn't surpirse me, although not sure it would be approved).

 

Google and other companies (such as tv manufacturers) have some of this functionality, but have gone about it the wrong way by focusing on crap like TV Apps that people don't care about (who really needs to access Twitter on their TV and type with their remote control, when they can just use their phone or iPad sitting in front of them?).

 

Online streaming still needs to be improved for people to really want to stream most of their content. I use Netflix OnDemand (& connect my laptop to my TV) and have a fast cable internet connection and still having buffering issues several times every time I try to watch a movie.

 

Regarding RIM allowing companies like Apple and Google to use their networks, how are you guys so sure that Apple would even allow that from their end?

[txlaw]

Texas Lawyer - I'll try to lay off of LVLT, but I must admit I cringe when a new post pops up.

 

Totally understand why there is LVLT fatigue on the board.  Many people are probably too nice or too scared to bring up their frustrations directly.

 

I'm sure the guys that post there often (including me) would understand if somebody suggested that posts be less frequent as LVLT press releases. 

 

By the way, don't hold my being a lawyer against me.  As soon as I can get out of practicing law, I will -- I hate it, actually.

 

Since you know more about MFST new products than I do - what do you think they will do?

 

Nah, you gotta figure that out on your own! ;)  Based on what I've been seeing, though, they're doing a decent job dealing with the problems they have. 

 

Unfortunately, MSFT is a victim of its own success. 

 

You mentioned the cloud for Apple - but for what?  Social networking?  Gaming?  Netflix?  All of the above?  Store my music and movies?  Send my kids there so I can sleep?

 

I have no idea, but I am sure it will be interesting.

 

I was specifically referring to an Apple cloud platform (i.e., a PaaS solution).  But all those services you mentioned could be on the table as well.

 

Can't argue the smaller players are more risky.  But there have only been a few Googles that start out as giant $30B companies.  Where are the next Googles coming from?  I think it is worth watching. 

 

Fair enough, but you can easily get burned unless you've got on-the-ground insight. 

 

I didn't see your posts on Dell, but what do you have against it?  I have taken a small position. 

 

I'm actually very optimistic about DELL.  It's my largest position.

 

BTW - I don't mind opposing views to mine - I'm not always right (always wrong if you ask the Mrs.)  Different views is good.  Just don't enjoy the LVLT views, good or bad (but I promised to lay off, so I digress).

 

Actually, I don't mind the jokes.  ;D