Guest wellmont Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Visa approves RIM's SEM solution: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/rim-receives-approval-from-visa-for-mobile-payment-solution-nasdaq-rimm-1746273.htm "We now offer carriers a robust solution with around-the-clock global support that works on any NFC-capable device, and meets the stringent technology and usability guidelines for Visa." Hopefully, we see this being used in more than just Canada. hopefully you see NFC used. to date I don't see anybody using their phone to make a payment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Visa approves RIM's SEM solution: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/rim-receives-approval-from-visa-for-mobile-payment-solution-nasdaq-rimm-1746273.htm "We now offer carriers a robust solution with around-the-clock global support that works on any NFC-capable device, and meets the stringent technology and usability guidelines for Visa." Hopefully, we see this being used in more than just Canada. txlaw,... See,... I was wondering all those recent years why no smartphone manufacturer/ecosystem started an instant payment system that somebody can use at the cash register in the local supermarket while purchasing groceries. Why is there not yet any iMoney, iCash, BlackberryCash or GoogleCash. Just hold your smartphone in the face of the cashier, touch the screen, and you are done. The benefits for phone hardware manufacturers might be gigantic,... they would probably have the biggest toll bridge on the whole world's economic output of some $69 trillion,... only receive some tiny 1/100th of a percentage point would yield billions in monopolistic profits. It would probably be a moat similar to Cokes. And primary it would morph a phone hardware manufacturer revenue dependence from commodity like products to some toll bridge moat collector like Amex or VISA. Or they also might become partners with them. Such a business model should be substainable infinitely without much net margin compression. Like a printer manufacturer, who makes money on selling ink, a phone ecosystem owner acting as some next generation cyber WesternUnion, which collects a transaction tax infinitely on repeated services. My courageous request! Apple & RIMM should morph into a financial service provider for mobil transactions. Apple and also specially RIMM's future business model should only be to receive such a "mobil tax on all worldwide retail sales",... to be the next generation cyber WesternUnion, and hardware sales should be of secondary importance. If Apple sleeps to long at this business changing threat, then RIMM might take in early bird advantage of this that might be worth billions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 My understanding is that it is very difficult to penetrate the payment business. Even google partnered with Mastercard for the Google Wallet, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Visa approves RIM's SEM solution: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/rim-receives-approval-from-visa-for-mobile-payment-solution-nasdaq-rimm-1746273.htm "We now offer carriers a robust solution with around-the-clock global support that works on any NFC-capable device, and meets the stringent technology and usability guidelines for Visa." Hopefully, we see this being used in more than just Canada. hopefully you see NFC used. to date I don't see anybody using their phone to make a payment. So are you on record as predicting that we won't get to a world where mobile phone payments are utilized? Duly noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Visa approves RIM's SEM solution: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/rim-receives-approval-from-visa-for-mobile-payment-solution-nasdaq-rimm-1746273.htm "We now offer carriers a robust solution with around-the-clock global support that works on any NFC-capable device, and meets the stringent technology and usability guidelines for Visa." Hopefully, we see this being used in more than just Canada. txlaw,... See,... I was wondering all those recent years why no smartphone manufacturer/ecosystem started an instant payment system that somebody can use at the cash register in the local supermarket while purchasing groceries. Why is there not yet any iMoney, iCash, BlackberryCash or GoogleCash. Just hold your smartphone in the face of the cashier, touch the screen, and you are done. The benefits for phone hardware manufacturers might be gigantic,... they would probably have the biggest toll bridge on the whole world's economic output of some $69 trillion,... only receive some tiny 1/100th of a percentage point would yield billions in monopolistic profits. It would probably be a moat similar to Cokes. And primary it would morph a phone hardware manufacturer revenue dependence from commodity like products to some toll bridge moat collector like Amex or VISA. Or they also might become partners with them. Such a business model should be substainable infinitely without much net margin compression. Like a printer manufacturer, who makes money on selling ink, a phone ecosystem owner acting as some next generation cyber WesternUnion, which collects a transaction tax infinitely on repeated services. My courageous request! Apple & RIMM should morph into a financial service provider for mobil transactions. Apple and also specially RIMM's future business model should only be to receive such a "mobil tax on all worldwide retail sales",... to be the next generation cyber WesternUnion, and hardware sales should be of secondary importance. If Apple sleeps to long at this business changing threat, then RIMM might take in early bird advantage of this that might be worth billions. berkshiremystery, I'm willing to bet that there have been lots of discussions between the various constituents in the last couple of years -- the banks, payment processors, hardware manufacturers (POS and mobile device), software providers, security services companies, etc. But it's gotta be a complicated process, no doubt, and I doubt that the payment processors and banks want to give away any percentage of the fees to the OS providers (AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, RIM, etc.) as a toll. That's probably why you only see stuff like Passbook for iOS and Google Wallet for Android, which are attempts by the OS providers to extract some value from their position on mobile devices, if only the value is collecting data on their users. To me, being a security services provider for all mobile NFC payments, regardless of what hardware or carrier is used, makes a lot of sense and continues to demonstrate the value of RIM's assets independent of BB10. RIM's assets don't just have to be used for financial payments -- they can be used for all sorts of sensitive data that gets transmitted across the net. I agree that services and software solutions provided by the mobile OS providers will become more important going forward, as the cost of providing the OS and the prices one can charge continues to plummet as a result of competition. With respect to AAPL, I suspect that nobody wants to give AAPL any more than they have already gotten, given the way they've extracted all the profit they can from their "partners." In fact, I suspect one of the major reasons NFC wasn't included in the iPhone 5 was because of these negotiations that may be going on behind the scenes. That's just speculation, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Visa approves RIM's SEM solution: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/rim-receives-approval-from-visa-for-mobile-payment-solution-nasdaq-rimm-1746273.htm "We now offer carriers a robust solution with around-the-clock global support that works on any NFC-capable device, and meets the stringent technology and usability guidelines for Visa." Hopefully, we see this being used in more than just Canada. hopefully you see NFC used. to date I don't see anybody using their phone to make a payment. So are you on record as predicting that we won't get to a world where mobile phone payments are utilized? Duly noted. too soon to tell who is going to make money, or where the value in the payment chain will accrue to. but I will tell you who deserves to make more money---the Rimm PR department, who is actually responsible for All of the shareholder value creation in the last 6 months. As to this bit of rimm PR fluff, I prefer a bit more meat on the bones before I decide which assets are going to produce cash and which won't. because the core rimm assets are destroying shareholder value at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I am quite impressed with the Cutzpah of Smazz, txlaw, and stahleyp, in sticking this thing out. I hope Rimm will deilver the goods now. I hold a small stake via FFh. I was just shocked at my small indirect RIMM stake, I thought, that it was tiny,... and haven't looked in a while, but after counting my beans today, I saw that it wasn't that tiny at all ;D. RIMM mark-to-market value accounts for almost a comparable 1/10 of FFH's equity. http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0000915191&HolderName=FAIRFAX+FINANCIAL+HOLDINGS+LTD%2F+CAN Hahaha,... Al, you are too decent to admit that you own much more, if you look a second time at your numbers. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Now I got some odd stomach feeling,.... Jefferies has some opinion on RIMM ::) RIM Reaches 11-Month High After Jefferies Buy Rating 2013-01-18 Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-18/rim-climbs-after-jefferies-lifts-rating-to-buy.html?cmpid=yhoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The stock has moved on nothing but hype & speculation. There's very little actual evidence that any significant amount of people outside of Canada are actually planning on buying their new phones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The stock has moved on nothing but hype & speculation. There's very little actual evidence that a lot of people are actually planning on buying their new phones. The stock has moved in both directions based on media hype and unsound analysis. Funny how it's only when RIM price action was in the opposite direction that everyone was more than willing to cite idiotic analyst reports and blog posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The stock has moved on nothing but hype & speculation. There's very little actual evidence that a lot of people are actually planning on buying their new phones. The stock has moved in both directions based on media hype and unsound analysis. Funny how it's only when RIM price action was in the opposite direction that everyone was more than willing to cite idiotic analyst reports and blog posts. I agree. I didn't know how to value RIM when it was on its way down and I still don't know what it is worth now that it is on its way up. The only reason I follow it at all is my large position in FFH. I sure hope Prem knows what he's doing with this one, because I don't. I'm just as nervous now as I was when it was nosediving, because I have no idea what it is really worth. It strikes me as a gamble on whether or not consumers will choose to buy its new phone over an iPhone or an Android phone. Maybe it will work out maybe it won't, but that isn't the type of thing I would normally like to bet on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The stock has moved on nothing but hype & speculation. There's very little actual evidence that a lot of people are actually planning on buying their new phones. The stock has moved in both directions based on media hype and unsound analysis. Funny how it's only when RIM price action was in the opposite direction that everyone was more than willing to cite idiotic analyst reports and blog posts. wrong. the stock collapsed because sales and profits absolutely crashed. the company hasn't made a dime since 2011. It has an $8b market cap and it's losing money. No earnings. How often do value investors own $8b technology companies that are losing money? rimm is moving up in the news Void before the release of the new products based on hype in a jacked up stock market. analysts are playing their typical games. and the rimm pr dept is working overtime to feed the beast. the only real news over the last few months was a truly awful earnings report that actually Did reveal something fundamental about the business. that correction lasted about a week. luckily the rubber is going to meet the road very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 pete...err, wellmont, why do you feel you know more about RIMM than Watsa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The stock has moved on nothing but hype & speculation. There's very little actual evidence that a lot of people are actually planning on buying their new phones. The stock has moved in both directions based on media hype and unsound analysis. Funny how it's only when RIM price action was in the opposite direction that everyone was more than willing to cite idiotic analyst reports and blog posts. wrong. the stock collapsed because sales and profits absolutely crashed. the company hasn't made a dime since 2011. It has an $8b market cap and it's losing money. No earnings. How often do value investors own $8b technology companies that are losing money? rimm is moving up in the news Void before the release of the new products based on hype in a jacked up stock market. analysts are playing their typical games. and the rimm pr dept is working overtime to feed the beast. the only real news over the last few months was a truly awful earnings report that actually Did reveal something fundamental about the business. that correction lasted about a week. luckily the rubber is going to meet the road very soon. Yeah, chalk it up to the RIM PR department, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The stock has moved on nothing but hype & speculation. There's very little actual evidence that a lot of people are actually planning on buying their new phones. The stock has moved in both directions based on media hype and unsound analysis. Funny how it's only when RIM price action was in the opposite direction that everyone was more than willing to cite idiotic analyst reports and blog posts. No - The stock crashed because their earnings crumbled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 For good measure, here's an article on Tizen, which wellmont mentioned a while back: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57564553-94/samsungs-secret-weapon-in-the-mobile-wars-tizen/ Looks like Intel and Samsung are the main backers of Tizen, though clearly Intel and Samsung won't be dissing Android anytime soon. Interesting excerpt: The carriers, in particular, see Tizen as a way to prominently place their own services and features on smartphones that ensure they maintain a strong relationship with the subscriber. Rather than Google services, for instance, they would use NTT Docomo services. "If we become a dumb pipe, our revenue will continue to shrink," said Kiyohito Nagata, managing director of strategic marketing for NTT Docomo and a member of the Tizen Association. With "dumb pipe," Nagata is referring to the phenomenon where the carrier becomes a simple Internet connection for lucrative services and apps delivered by other companies. For the most part, many carriers already deal with this issue with home Internet service, and they want to avoid it on the wireless side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 pete...err, wellmont, why do you feel you know more about RIMM than Watsa? If Prem really knew a lot about RIMM and the industry, he wouldn't have been loading up on the company at $50/share. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The stock has moved on nothing but hype & speculation. There's very little actual evidence that a lot of people are actually planning on buying their new phones. The stock has moved in both directions based on media hype and unsound analysis. Funny how it's only when RIM price action was in the opposite direction that everyone was more than willing to cite idiotic analyst reports and blog posts. No - The stock crashed because their earnings crumbled. Really? To well below break up/run off value, simply because their earnings "crumbled" in a transitional period? You might be right. That doesn't mean that Mr. Market was being rational when the price crashed, though -- or when the price made its rapid ascent up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The stock has moved on nothing but hype & speculation. There's very little actual evidence that a lot of people are actually planning on buying their new phones. The stock has moved in both directions based on media hype and unsound analysis. Funny how it's only when RIM price action was in the opposite direction that everyone was more than willing to cite idiotic analyst reports and blog posts. I agree. I didn't know how to value RIM when it was on its way down and I still don't know what it is worth now that it is on its way up. The only reason I follow it at all is my large position in FFH. I sure hope Prem knows what he's doing with this one, because I don't. I'm just as nervous now as I was when it was nosediving, because I have no idea what it is really worth. It strikes me as a gamble on whether or not consumers will choose to buy its new phone over an iPhone or an Android phone. Maybe it will work out maybe it won't, but that isn't the type of thing I would normally like to bet on. HWIC has almost certainly done a break up/run off analysis. Now, whether they were wrong on that value is a different question. They also likely looked at the optionality of the situation based on their discussions with Mike Lazaridis. Also, I would note that the HWIC team appear to be much more worldly investors than your average investment team, and they are not so swayed by NA-centric echo chambers such as Silicon Valley or NYC. They average down when it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 pete...err, wellmont, why do you feel you know more about RIMM than Watsa? I think for myself. I am not simply an indicator of what Prem Wasta was buying 3 months ago. if I wanted to be that kind of investor I would just follow him blindly into his positions like others do. ;) although I am wondering when my rented shares will be called away. ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The stock has moved on nothing but hype & speculation. There's very little actual evidence that a lot of people are actually planning on buying their new phones. The stock has moved in both directions based on media hype and unsound analysis. Funny how it's only when RIM price action was in the opposite direction that everyone was more than willing to cite idiotic analyst reports and blog posts. I agree. I didn't know how to value RIM when it was on its way down and I still don't know what it is worth now that it is on its way up. The only reason I follow it at all is my large position in FFH. I sure hope Prem knows what he's doing with this one, because I don't. I'm just as nervous now as I was when it was nosediving, because I have no idea what it is really worth. It strikes me as a gamble on whether or not consumers will choose to buy its new phone over an iPhone or an Android phone. Maybe it will work out maybe it won't, but that isn't the type of thing I would normally like to bet on. HWIC has almost certainly done a break up/run off analysis. Now, whether they were wrong on that value is a different question. They also likely looked at the optionality of the situation based on their discussions with Mike Lazaridis. Also, I would note that the HWIC team appear to be much more worldly investors than your average investment team, and they are not so swayed by NA-centric echo chambers such as Silicon Valley or NYC. They average down when it makes sense. I am sure they did the same analysis when they first bought in the $40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The stock has moved on nothing but hype & speculation. There's very little actual evidence that a lot of people are actually planning on buying their new phones. The stock has moved in both directions based on media hype and unsound analysis. Funny how it's only when RIM price action was in the opposite direction that everyone was more than willing to cite idiotic analyst reports and blog posts. I agree. I didn't know how to value RIM when it was on its way down and I still don't know what it is worth now that it is on its way up. The only reason I follow it at all is my large position in FFH. I sure hope Prem knows what he's doing with this one, because I don't. I'm just as nervous now as I was when it was nosediving, because I have no idea what it is really worth. It strikes me as a gamble on whether or not consumers will choose to buy its new phone over an iPhone or an Android phone. Maybe it will work out maybe it won't, but that isn't the type of thing I would normally like to bet on. HWIC has almost certainly done a break up/run off analysis. Now, whether they were wrong on that value is a different question. They also likely looked at the optionality of the situation based on their discussions with Mike Lazaridis. Also, I would note that the HWIC team appear to be much more worldly investors than your average investment team, and they are not so swayed by NA-centric echo chambers such as Silicon Valley or NYC. They average down when it makes sense. I am sure they did the same analysis when they first bought in the $40s. Probably. They may have valued the patent portfolio quite differently than my own valuation, based on comments somebody posted from the HWIC annual meeting that came from Francis Chou. But, hey, we all make mistakes, and that's what position sizing is all about. In the past, I had bought CLWR shares at as high a price as $6. Obviously, I didn't make money on that lot, though I made a handy profit on my CLWR position in total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Probably. They may have valued the patent portfolio quite differently than my own valuation, based on comments somebody posted from the HWIC annual meeting that came from Francis Chou. But, hey, we all make mistakes, and that's what position sizing is all about. In the past, I had bought CLWR shares at as high a price as $6. Obviously, I didn't make money on that lot, though I made a handy profit on my CLWR position in total. their break up analysis presupposed the company would be earning $4 a share. losing money was not in their "model". I seriously doubt he ever thought they would lose money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Probably. They may have valued the patent portfolio quite differently than my own valuation, based on comments somebody posted from the HWIC annual meeting that came from Francis Chou. But, hey, we all make mistakes, and that's what position sizing is all about. In the past, I had bought CLWR shares at as high a price as $6. Obviously, I didn't make money on that lot, though I made a handy profit on my CLWR position in total. their break up analysis presupposed the company would be earning $4 a share. losing money was not in their "model". I seriously doubt he ever thought they would lose money. How do you know that? What's your source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Probably. They may have valued the patent portfolio quite differently than my own valuation, based on comments somebody posted from the HWIC annual meeting that came from Francis Chou. But, hey, we all make mistakes, and that's what position sizing is all about. In the past, I had bought CLWR shares at as high a price as $6. Obviously, I didn't make money on that lot, though I made a handy profit on my CLWR position in total. their break up analysis presupposed the company would be earning $4 a share. losing money was not in their "model". I seriously doubt he ever thought they would lose money. How do you know that? What's your source? because you would never buy at $40 plus if you thought the company would ever lose money on it's core business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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