BB - BlackBerry

[txlaw]

 

Probably.  They may have valued the patent portfolio quite differently than my own valuation, based on comments somebody posted from the HWIC annual meeting that came from Francis Chou.

 

But, hey, we all make mistakes, and that's what position sizing is all about.  In the past, I had bought CLWR shares at as high a price as $6.  Obviously, I didn't make money on that lot, though I made a handy profit on my CLWR position in total.

 

their break up analysis presupposed the company would be earning $4 a share. losing money was not in their "model".  I seriously doubt he ever thought they would lose money.

 

How do you know that?  What's your source?

 

 

because you would never buy at $40 plus if you thought the company would ever lose money on it's core business.

 

Oh, so pure speculation.  Got it.

[Guest wellmont]

For good measure, here's an article on Tizen, which wellmont mentioned a while back:

 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57564553-94/samsungs-secret-weapon-in-the-mobile-wars-tizen/

 

Looks like Intel and Samsung are the main backers of Tizen, though clearly Intel and Samsung won't be dissing Android anytime soon.

 

Interesting excerpt:

 

The carriers, in particular, see Tizen as a way to prominently place their own services and features on smartphones that ensure they maintain a strong relationship with the subscriber. Rather than Google services, for instance, they would use NTT Docomo services.

 

"If we become a dumb pipe, our revenue will continue to shrink," said Kiyohito Nagata, managing director of strategic marketing for NTT Docomo and a member of the Tizen Association.

 

With "dumb pipe," Nagata is referring to the phenomenon where the carrier becomes a simple Internet connection for lucrative services and apps delivered by other companies. For the most part, many carriers already deal with this issue with home Internet service, and they want to avoid it on the wireless side.

 

Samsung is very clever in the way they hedge their business risk.

[Guest wellmont]

Oh, so pure speculation.  Got it.

 

I know you've "got it". because owning an $8b market cap that is losing money on it's core business is Pure speculation. So you Never speculate do you? :)

[txlaw]

Oh, so pure speculation.  Got it.

 

I know you've "got it". because owning an $8b market cap that is losing money on it's core business is Pure speculation. So you Never speculate do you? :)

 

Nope, I don't.  Or at least I try not to. :)

[ItsAValueTrap]

See,... I was wondering all those recent years why no smartphone manufacturer/ecosystem started an instant payment system that somebody can use at the cash register in the local supermarket while purchasing groceries. Why is there not yet any iMoney, iCash, BlackberryCash or GoogleCash. Just hold your smartphone in the face of the cashier, touch the screen, and you are done.

I think that payments is a very difficult industry to break into.

 

Not getting killed by fraud is a big barrier.

Regulations and the very high cost of compliance (you need a large staff just for compliance) is a barrier.

Reaching critical mass is a big barrier.  It's only now that North America is getting into chip cards/PIN and tapping your credit card to pay.

 

I am guessing there are security advantages of using smartphones to pay.  Chip-based credit cards apparently have some serious security flaws that they aren't supposed to have.  But the problem is this: you have to convince a lot of people to buy into your system.  You have to convince merchants to pay money for a new terminal that handles your system.  And sometimes the old system is entrenched enough that it can be hard to displace.  A lot of Subway restaurants where I live (Toronto) don't support contactless payment, even though the technology has been around for a while (and it would make sense for them to support it since their lines would move faster and they shouldn't worry much about fraud...).

I am typing this message on a QWERTY keyboard... a keyboard layout that is designed to make people type slowly.  Entrenchment is a barrier.

 

Of course this could succeed.  Blackberry has other stuff that would be worth a lot on a standalone basis.  The QNX OS (used in other embedded applications) might be worth at least a few hundred million... if not more.

 

*I used to be long RIM, lost money, realized I was wrong, and am now short RIM.  Their cash flow deteriorated much faster than I thought it would.

[txlaw]

*I used to be long RIM, lost money, realized I was wrong, and am now short RIM.  Their cash flow deteriorated much faster than I thought it would.

 

I'm curious.  At what price did you begin to short RIM?  Did you just put on the short?

[cwericb]

“If Prem really knew a lot about RIMM and the industry, he wouldn't have been loading up on the company at $50/share. Just sayin'.”  DCG

 

“I am sure they did the same analysis when they first bought in the $40s.” - wellmont

 

You guys both might be making some pretty rash assumptions.

 

First, you are assuming that Prem either doesn’t know what he is doing or is some sort of sucker. Perhaps, but past history would seem to contradict that.

 

Secondly, you are assuming that you know a lot more about RIM than the HWIC team.

 

Thirdly, you are also assuming that Mr. Market is 100% right all the time. However, this would not be the first time that Mr Market has vastly undervalued or overvalued a company. So, was it right when RIM was $60? or $6?

 

I don’t know what RIM is worth. What do you value it at? Personally I would think that Prem/ HWIC is probably in a better position to make an educated guess at what the true value of the company than any of us on this board. There is no guarantee that he is right, anyone can make a mistake, but who here thinks they are better investors than HWIC ?

[Guest wellmont]

As far as I can tell PW is not some kind of investing GOD that is infallible. he makes mistakes. He is human right? even buffett makes mistakes and he is certainly not in Buffett's league. I have never questioned his abilities as an investor. It would be a gigantic leap to assume I do question his abilities. I am making specific comments about a specific idea, which I would make whether he is involved in this name or not.

 

I happen to think he was out of his hitting zone here and was overly sentimental. As Parsad said it's an Opinion, which we are all entitled to.  and if it offends anybody who worships at the church of PW then that's their issue (and it is an issue). I am sure PW does not need anybody here defending his honor from anonymous posters on the internet.

 

Why would one assume someone who first bought the shares at close to $50 a share is in a better position to make a judgement on this company than anybody here is something to ponder, and highlights a real bias. (***Cialdini) Wouldn't someone who was bearish at $50 have at least an equal voice?

 

I see a lot of people trying to rewrite history. He was Wrong on Rimm. He is now trying to salvage his capital, which as a board member, he is in a good position to do. But there is little doubt he got it wrong. Him and all his experts.  For some investors, the entire bullish thesis on rimm rests on "In Wasta we trust".

 

I don't care who is a better investor than PW. This is not a competition that judges every investor here against him. He is human and makes mistakes. The facts of this idea is what matters. Not what PW thinks about it.

 

***Social Proof - People will do things that they see other people are doing. For example, in one experiment, one or more confederates would look up into the sky; bystanders would then look up into the sky to see what they were seeing. At one point this experiment aborted, as so many people were looking up that they stopped traffic. See conformity, and the Asch conformity experiments.

Authority - People will tend to obey authority figures, even if they are asked to perform objectionable acts. Cialdini cites incidents such as the Milgram experiments in the early 1960s and the My Lai massacre.

Liking - People are easily persuaded by other people that they like. Cialdini cites the marketing of Tupperware in what might now be called viral marketing. People were more likely to buy if they liked the person selling it to them. Some of the many biases favoring more attractive people are discussed. See physical attractiveness stereotype.

[DCG]

“If Prem really knew a lot about RIMM and the industry, he wouldn't have been loading up on the company at $50/share. Just sayin'.”  DCG

 

“I am sure they did the same analysis when they first bought in the $40s.” - wellmont

 

You guys both might be making some pretty rash assumptions.

 

First, you are assuming that Prem either doesn’t know what he is doing or is some sort of sucker. Perhaps, but past history would seem to contradict that.

 

Secondly, you are assuming that you know a lot more about RIM than the HWIC team.

 

Thirdly, you are also assuming that Mr. Market is 100% right all the time. However, this would not be the first time that Mr Market has vastly undervalued or overvalued a company. So, was it right when RIM was $60? or $6?

 

I don’t know what RIM is worth. What do you value it at? Personally I would think that Prem/ HWIC is probably in a better position to make an educated guess at what the true value of the company than any of us on this board. There is no guarantee that he is right, anyone can make a mistake, but who here thinks they are better investors than HWIC ?

 

My assumption (which could of course be wrong) is that Prem got a little too involved in an industry that might be a bit outside his circle of competence.

 

As I Fairfax shareholder I hope I'm wrong.

[ItsAValueTrap]

*I used to be long RIM, lost money, realized I was wrong, and am now short RIM.  Their cash flow deteriorated much faster than I thought it would.

 

I'm curious.  At what price did you begin to short RIM?  Did you just put on the short?

$14.44.  And yes, my limit order filled Monday Jan 14.

 

I feel like a sheep though.  This stock has massive short interest.  I presume that a lot of people see RIM's cash flow rapidly declining until it becomes a shadow of what it once was.

[Guest valueInv]

“If Prem really knew a lot about RIMM and the industry, he wouldn't have been loading up on the company at $50/share. Just sayin'.”  DCG

 

“I am sure they did the same analysis when they first bought in the $40s.” - wellmont

 

You guys both might be making some pretty rash assumptions.

 

First, you are assuming that Prem either doesn’t know what he is doing or is some sort of sucker. Perhaps, but past history would seem to contradict that.

 

Secondly, you are assuming that you know a lot more about RIM than the HWIC team.

 

Thirdly, you are also assuming that Mr. Market is 100% right all the time. However, this would not be the first time that Mr Market has vastly undervalued or overvalued a company. So, was it right when RIM was $60? or $6?

 

I don’t know what RIM is worth. What do you value it at? Personally I would think that Prem/ HWIC is probably in a better position to make an educated guess at what the true value of the company than any of us on this board. There is no guarantee that he is right, anyone can make a mistake, but who here thinks they are better investors than HWIC ?

 

Prem once called their founders 'geniuses'. That tells me all I want to know .

[txlaw]

Up over 190% on the options. If this is wrong...well, I don't wanna be right.  :-*

 

I beat you on that stahleyp.  ;D  I'm up 297% on the LEAPS -- but only 75% on the common.

 

Let's not brag too much, though.  We're sure to get some snide comments about how price action is influencing our assessment of IV, and how we simply followed Watsa into the investment.

[stahleyp]

nice tx!

 

I deleted it. didn't want to gloat too much. haha. You caught me! :)

[txlaw]

“If Prem really knew a lot about RIMM and the industry, he wouldn't have been loading up on the company at $50/share. Just sayin'.”  DCG

 

“I am sure they did the same analysis when they first bought in the $40s.” - wellmont

 

You guys both might be making some pretty rash assumptions.

 

First, you are assuming that Prem either doesn’t know what he is doing or is some sort of sucker. Perhaps, but past history would seem to contradict that.

 

Secondly, you are assuming that you know a lot more about RIM than the HWIC team.

 

Thirdly, you are also assuming that Mr. Market is 100% right all the time. However, this would not be the first time that Mr Market has vastly undervalued or overvalued a company. So, was it right when RIM was $60? or $6?

 

I don’t know what RIM is worth. What do you value it at? Personally I would think that Prem/ HWIC is probably in a better position to make an educated guess at what the true value of the company than any of us on this board. There is no guarantee that he is right, anyone can make a mistake, but who here thinks they are better investors than HWIC ?

 

Prem once called their founders 'geniuses'. That tells me all I want to know .

 

Can't speak for Balsillie, but Mike Lazaridis could actually be considered a genius, depending on how you define that term. 

Mike Lazaridis is a truly smart dude -- you should do some research on him. 

[cwericb]

“you must think he is some kind of investing GOD that is infallible. he makes mistakes. He is human right” Where did you get that impression? I said “There is no guarantee that he is right, anyone can make a mistake”

You said “Why you would assume someone who first bought the shares at close to $50 a share is in a better position to make a judgement on this company than anybody here is something to ponder, and highlights your bias.” Seriously? I simply said “Prem/ HWIC is probably in a better position to make an educated guess at .. the true value of the company” Did you meet with RIM management? Do you have a staff of experts to examine the company?

 

Further “and if it offends anybody who worships at the church of PW then that's their issue.”  You frequently refer to Prem Watsa as an individual making these decisions when in reality it is the team at Hamblin Watsa that researches and validates these decisions. You have every right to disagree with their decisions and you may very well have their combined expertise, but I suspect that it is possible that they may have access to more information on the subject than you do. Further, as Prem is on the Board of RIM one would surmise that he is reasonably well informed on the situation within RIM.

 

Look, because the share price dropped drastically does not necessarily mean that FFH’s original assessment was wrong. The share price of a company reflects what investors THINK a company is worth at a specific point in time. Last week RIM was trading at $11. Does that mean the true value of the company was worth only $11 per share? This week it is trading at $15. Did company assets improve by nearly 50% last week?

[Guest wellmont]

he had all those so called advantages at $50. he had all the access, all the experts, all the influence. yet he still bought at $50. then he got himself on the board, and lowered his cost basis. he is now, as Parsad said, trying to salvage this investment. He may well do so. But he had to call in some chips and get on the BOD, and get himself very close to this investment, so that he can try to rescue this capital. Does he "get it" any more now than he did then? Probably. Losing your shirt makes you sit up and pay attention. It focuses the mind. But I am not impressed much by his experts, his staff, his access, his resources, his Advantages. He had all that when he bought at $50. I don't think all that gives him any advantages in appraisal over anybody on this board who does their own homework. Investing is great in that at any point in time, one individual guy who posts on a message board could be right, while the Buffett of the North could be wrong.

[cwericb]

"Investing is great in that one individual guy who posts on a message board could be right, while the Buffett of the North could be wrong."

 

Yup. Throw enough darts at a dart board and sooner or later you are bound to hit the bull's eye. However it doesn't say much for one's expertise.

[Guest wellmont]

"Investing is great in that one individual guy who posts on a message board could be right, while the Buffett of the North could be wrong."

 

Yup. Through enough darts at a dart board and sooner or later you are bound to hit the bull's eye. However it doesn't say much for one's expertise.

 

perhaps Mr Wasta should have thrown a dart instead of buying rimm at $50. Or at least he should have contacted peter_burke to see what he thought. ;)

[cwericb]

"perhaps Mr Wasta should have thrown a dart instead of buying rimm at $50. Or at least he should have contacted peter_burke to see what he thought. ;)"

 

Did Peter lose his job as CEO? Welmont have you, peter_burke, and rim_never_sleeps ever thought of forming an investment advisory board?

[Guest wellmont]

"perhaps Mr Wasta should have thrown a dart instead of buying rimm at $50. Or at least he should have contacted peter_burke to see what he thought. ;)"

 

Did Peter lose his job as CEO? Welmont have you, peter_burke, and rim_never_sleeps ever thought of forming an investment advisory board?

 

I don't know why we would. I don't see an IAB as being any more successful than a single thoughtful rational individual who sometimes may be posting in his underwear. :)

[cwericb]

Funny, I just noticed the Graham quote at the bottom of your posts and that is exactly the point I was trying to get across to you about Prem's purchase of RIM.

 

"Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it - even though others may hesitate or differ. You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. ----B Graham"

[berkshiremystery]

RIM: Research In Motion Pays A Bounty For Apps As It Approaches D-Day

2013-1-18 SeekingAlpha.com

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1121411-rim-research-in-motion-pays-a-bounty-for-apps-as-it-approaches-d-day?source=yahoo

 

As a result, RIM reported that over 15,000 apps were added to its library in just this past week. Earlier this year, Chief Marketing Officer Frank Boulben said that the company had 70,000 apps ready for launch. It is possible that with this latest effort and a couple of weeks left to go before launch, the100,000 application level could be breached?

 

[Guest wellmont]

Funny, I just noticed the Graham quote at the bottom of your posts and that is exactly the point I was trying to get across to you about Prem's purchase of RIM.

 

"Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it - even though others may hesitate or differ. You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. ----B Graham"

 

exactly. which is why I don't understand your elevation of investment authority figures at the same time diminishing individual independent thinking investors who may disagree.  Ben Graham says the facts will out. cheers!

 

 

[berkshiremystery]

RIM: Research In Motion Pays A Bounty For Apps As It Approaches D-Day

2013-1-18 SeekingAlpha.com

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1121411-rim-research-in-motion-pays-a-bounty-for-apps-as-it-approaches-d-day?source=yahoo

 

As a result, RIM reported that over 15,000 apps were added to its library in just this past week. Earlier this year, Chief Marketing Officer Frank Boulben said that the company had 70,000 apps ready for launch. It is possible that with this latest effort and a couple of weeks left to go before launch, the100,000 application level could be breached?

 

those apps probably will suck. :)

 

I'm a Skype power user on my iPhone,... use it probably +90% of the time instead my normal cell phone voice frequency to make cheap international calls and free local calls to my families landline at home, which owns a hybrid cordless phone (Skype handset at landline/with DSL). If a Skype app comes to BB10, I might be very tempted to purchase a Blackberry as a next smartphone. I think it might have already two other advantages over the iPhone, an openable backside to change the battery and a slot to insert a microSD memory card. This are all features that would lure me away as a Scrooge McDuck, if I would be a new buyer comparing apples. Some moat might be slowly melting, if the competition is increasing with more customer friendly features. But I'm definitly not smarter than wellmont to predict the future outcomes. Why aren't we all calm and wait and see what it really brings in a few weeks.

 

Skype Attended BB10 JAM Santa Clara

2012-06-09

http://www.allblackberryallthetime.com/2012/06/skype-attended-bb10-jam-santa-clara.html?m=1

 

Leaked images show 'the next Blackberry' - and it looks suspiciously like an iPhone

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2247092/Blackberry-10-Leaked-images-new-phone-looks-suspiciously-like-iPhone.html

 

-------------------

 

Interesting for curiosity freaks,... the 3 most frequently viewed threads in investment ideas are,

1) BAC (337625 views)

2) AIG (160466 views)

3) RIM (138844 views).

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/?sort=views;desc

 

Have nothing more to add.

 

 

 

 

 

[HJ]

I'm a Skype power user on my iPhone,... use it probably +90% of the time instead my normal cell phone voice frequency to make cheap international calls and free local calls to my families landline at home, which owns a hybrid cordless phone (Skype handset at landline/with DSL). If a Skype app comes to BB10, I might be very tempted to purchase a Blackberry as a next smartphone. I think it might have already two other advantages over the iPhone, an openable backside to change the battery and a slot to insert a microSD memory card. This are all features that would lure me away if I would be a new buyer comparing apples. Some moat might be slowly melting, if the competition is increasing with more customer friendly features. But I'm definitly not smarter than wellmont to predict the future outcomes. Why aren't we all calm and wait and see what it really brings in a few weeks.

 

Roger McNamee was on Charlie Rose last night commenting how Steve Balmer is one bad sleep away from competing with Apple, specifically talking about Skype:  Instead of Windows 8 with a Skype App, if Microsift would just ditch Windows, and lead with a cheap Skype phone, the traction that it would gain in Emerging Markets would completely change the dynamics of their technology positioning.  They would be a real competitor to Google and Apple almost overnight.  Just thought it's interesting that you brought out Skype in this line of discussion.