ubuy2wron Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Half of the outstanding shares traded today. Thats a lot of shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 A case of 'buy on rumor, sell on news'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueorama Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/technology/the-blackberry-refreshed-lives-to-fight-another-day.html Review from David Pogue of NYT. Valueorama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/technology/the-blackberry-refreshed-lives-to-fight-another-day.html Review from David Pogue of NYT. Valueorama. "Some of BlackBerry 10’s ideas are truly ingenious. A subtle light blinks above the screen to indicate that something — a text, an e-mail message, voice mail, a Facebook post — is waiting for you." um...many android phones have been doing this for 5 years. They also do this "BlackBerry has come up with a mind-bogglingly clever typing system. Stay with me here: As you type a word, tiny, complete words appear over certain on-screen keys — guesses as to the word you’re most likely to want. " Sounds like he's never seen an Android phone, but it sounds like the phone does have a few nice features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/technology/the-blackberry-refreshed-lives-to-fight-another-day.html Review from David Pogue of NYT. Valueorama. "Some of BlackBerry 10’s ideas are truly ingenious. A subtle light blinks above the screen to indicate that something — a text, an e-mail message, voice mail, a Facebook post — is waiting for you." um...many android phones have been doing this for 5 years. They also do this "BlackBerry has come up with a mind-bogglingly clever typing system. Stay with me here: As you type a word, tiny, complete words appear over certain on-screen keys — guesses as to the word you’re most likely to want. " Sounds like he's never seen an Android phone, but it sounds like the phone does have a few nice features. the keyboard better be good. it's the only one you can use. Android has at least 5 really good replacement keyboards for the very nice stock keyboard. I really feel the more info that comes out on this phone the more people will realize it's not up to snuff. for example, there is no google search. only bing. there is no gmail. there is no google maps. there is a poorly implemented SIRI clone. The camera is average and is quirky to use, the speakerphone and volume is weak, Mapping is said to be pretty poor, no better than what Verizon loads on your phone. Mapping and Navigation pales in comparison to IOS, Google, and Nokia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Wellmont, when you write you prove how much you dont know. You wrote all the things above BB10 doesnt have. Have you ever used a current Blackberry phone or playbook? I have and I use daily all the things you stated "they dont have" Thats all the fingertip skin I will waste on you and I am surprised others here give you the time of day. Maybe get a life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 So this is how they got to 70,000 apps: http://readwrite.com/2013/01/30/40-of-blackberry-apps-are-actually-android Nice marketing, guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hope it comes with a manual: http://mashable.com/2013/01/30/blackberry-10-first-time/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenith Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I will be buying one. I think that many developers and also strategic opportunities will occur as long as BB10 is successful. Many companies were waiting until the launch and the PR they received today, you cannot buy. And with tangible book at $12, this should provide a nice floor for the stock. The armageddon scenerio will not play out. However the upside scenerio may not play out as well. I was at a conferance today (at City Club, Los Angeles) with Jeffrey Gundlach of Doubleline Capital and I always find him entertaining. His presentation was the usual affair, recommending Silver and long the Nikkei (via EWJ) but also short the yen. He is also short the S&P and believes the Treasuries are actually underowned. I would be happy to do a write up if anyone is interested. However at the end of the presentation I asked him about AAPL and RIMM, and his answer was "AAPL is now headed to $300, and RIMM is dead!" (For referance he had said it was going to $425, and he said he was off by $10!) He then talked about how AAPL lost its innovation when Steve Jobs passed away. But what was really interesting was he said he uses a Blackberry Bold! He said he loves it and sees no need to get a new phone. He also said he has never seen BB10. I guess he will at least be contributing to the service fees that everyone is so concerned about! Regards, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hi, Zenith: I will be highly interested to see a write-up - that will be awesome. When Gundlach speaks , I listen... Last time I watched his interview on Bloomberg he mentioned similar view (short s&p, bond is at an inflection point around 1.9% for 10-y etc.), today bond is at 2% for 10-y anyway... He also mentioned that if the transportation index made a new high that would be very bullish for s&p . This index did make a new high and seems he's still holding his bearish stance on s&p ... I will be buying one. I think that many developers and also strategic opportunities will occur as long as BB10 is successful. Many companies were waiting until the launch and the PR they received today, you cannot buy. And with tangible book at $12, this should provide a nice floor for the stock. The armageddon scenerio will not play out. However the upside scenerio may not play out as well. I was at a conferance today (at City Club, Los Angeles) with Jeffrey Gundlach of Doubleline Capital and I always find him entertaining. His presentation was the usual affair, recommending Silver and long the Nikkei (via EWJ) but also short the yen. He is also short the S&P and believes the Treasuries are actually underowned. I would be happy to do a write up if anyone is interested. However at the end of the presentation I asked him about AAPL and RIMM, and his answer was "AAPL is now headed to $300, and RIMM is dead!" (For referance he had said it was going to $425, and he said he was off by $10!) He then talked about how AAPL lost its innovation when Steve Jobs passed away. But what was really interesting was he said he uses a Blackberry Bold! He said he loves it and sees no need to get a new phone. He also said he has never seen BB10. I guess he will at least be contributing to the service fees that everyone is so concerned about! Regards, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 "However the upside scenerio may not play out as well." I think that is the key as an investor regarding all these smartphones makers. The threads on both RIMM and AAPL are huge and filled with smart thoughts on both sides of their individual merits as investments. Whenever I see this kind of arguing on this board, it tells me flat performance at best on a longer term basis. Currently I use an IPhone 4S and I have no interest in getting a 5 or another one from someone else and that is even if I really like the size of a Galaxy S3 owned by a friend. The BB10 may have a few new cool features, but it does not appear earth shattering. It seems to me that this industry is out of big ideas and heading for commoditization and a potential price war. The only differentiator now appears to be people not wanting to switch because of the pain of learning a new system. Seems very very hard to predict future cash flows on these stocks and your eventual reward both long and short. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 this is why I like GOOG. People don't need to upgrade to new SP's for them to make money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueorama Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The threads on both RIMM and AAPL are huge and filled with smart thoughts on both sides of their individual merits as investments. Cardboard I think the main reason for this behavior is as follows: 1. Lots of people use and understand the technology. 2. confirmation bias as they have the product. 3. Lots of price action also bring lots of attention. I do agree that it is very hard to predict the outcome. Valueorama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenith Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 "However the upside scenerio may not play out as well." I think that is the key as an investor regarding all these smartphones makers. The threads on both RIMM and AAPL are huge and filled with smart thoughts on both sides of their individual merits as investments. Whenever I see this kind of arguing on this board, it tells me flat performance at best on a longer term basis. Currently I use an IPhone 4S and I have no interest in getting a 5 or another one from someone else and that is even if I really like the size of a Galaxy S3 owned by a friend. The BB10 may have a few new cool features, but it does not appear earth shattering. It seems to me that this industry is out of big ideas and heading for commoditization and a potential price war. The only differentiator now appears to be people not wanting to switch because of the pain of learning a new system. Seems very very hard to predict future cash flows on these stocks and your eventual reward both long and short. Cardboard That is true, however I would point out that a recovery is also possible as well as they have the software and can license out the BB10 hardware (including a sale) to a likes of HTC or any other company as mentioned in Barrons today. They can be the LCP (Low Cost Provider) in emerging markets and since they have cult like status in places like Indonesia they have a strong starting point. The whole issue comes down to downside protection because we can be wrong. You can be wrong on any company, and if you look at the estimates for this company, they are very low, although recently analysts have been increasing their estimates. Actions speak louder than words. When I started out in the business over a decade ago, I learned a simple lesson, analyst recommendations are what they say and the estimates are what they do. Case in point with AAPL, they have been decreasing estimates the past 3 quarters while all maintaining their BUY's. With respect to BBRY, they have been increasing them the past 3 months even though 80% have a sell. As I mentioned with respect to Gundlach, the service fees are not decreasing in any large amount anytime soon. So this part of the business is realtivley stable. In fact corporate BB10 users that use the Balance service and other high-end services, will pay a greater fee. They are changing one accounting metric though, if you look at the Page 8 of the 3Q report it says RIM will identify its BlackBerry subscriber base as the total of all BlackBerry subscriber accounts that are provisioned to access BlackBerry services, regardless of whether RIM is receiving infrastructure access fees from each such subscriber in any given month.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 "However the upside scenerio may not play out as well." I think that is the key as an investor regarding all these smartphones makers. The threads on both RIMM and AAPL are huge and filled with smart thoughts on both sides of their individual merits as investments. Whenever I see this kind of arguing on this board, it tells me flat performance at best on a longer term basis. Currently I use an IPhone 4S and I have no interest in getting a 5 or another one from someone else and that is even if I really like the size of a Galaxy S3 owned by a friend. The BB10 may have a few new cool features, but it does not appear earth shattering. It seems to me that this industry is out of big ideas and heading for commoditization and a potential price war. The only differentiator now appears to be people not wanting to switch because of the pain of learning a new system. Seems very very hard to predict future cash flows on these stocks and your eventual reward both long and short. Cardboard Cardboard, I cannot speak to what the performance of RIM/BBRY stock will be going forward. I have been very surprised both by the crazy trajectory downward and crazy trajectory upwards. The rate of change in this stock is pretty amazing. But I suppose that the price staying flat could be in the cards going forward. What I can speak to is valuation. In my opinion, there has been an inordinate focus on the upside -- and not enough (or cursory) focus on the downside -- for both BBRY and AAPL. That's just my opinion. I can tell you that I still believe that run-off/break-up value for RIM/BBRY is now above the current market price, even with a cash position going down to $2 billion due to marketing spend and lack of sales during the transition period. As I have always stated, BB10's success is upside optionality for the investment. I will be patient and wait to see how things unfold now that they've gotten the ball rolling on BB10. I would also really like to see non-BB10-centric revenue, such as the SEM revenue, MDM software offering, increased uptake of QNX, etc. But we'll see what happens. With AAPL, I don't think they are going away, and I'm now starting to get interested in the company. However, I think anyone who looks at AAPL has to build in ASP decline, gross margin (and contribution margin) decline, and slowing sales in order to build an MOS into their range of values. (In doing so, I figure that at this point, AAPL is a great business trading at a reasonable/fair price, so I would really like to see a greater collapse in price before putting anything more than a small amount into it.) Additionally, there is the threat not of commoditization of the OS, per se, but of a changing business model for the OS providers. Specifically, it is my belief that the licensing business model for OS providers is going to become less and less important going forward and, consequently, less and less lucrative. Instead, I believe that providing software and services tied to the OS is the best way to monetize that OS. It's why I believe GOOG is in a much stronger position than AAPL on the OS front, despite that being a negligible part of their profits. It's why I think MSFT is making a really strong push into Big Data, cloud infrastructure, media distribution, and SaaS offerings. If I were forced to bet on big tech for the long term, I would put my money into GOOG and MSFT, not BBRY or AAPL. However, given prices and valuations, I'm happy to have invested in RIM at a much lower cost basis than its current market price, and I very much hope that they are successful in making BB10 something that is around for the next 10 years, not just for the investment optionality, but also because I like to see innovation being fruitful to the various stakeholders involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 They just don't seem to have any solid long-term plans. Hein's response to everything seems to be 'we're up for anything'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 service revenue has already started to decline sequentially and the company has warned investors to expect it decline further. furthermore, rimm no longer gets a fee for every bb device it sells. Service revenue has to go down more from here. it's baked in the cake. their entire service model is in question. Outlook The Company expects that there will be continued pressure on operating results as it gets set to launch its BlackBerry 10 platform in the fourth quarter. The Company intends to continue to consider using pricing initiatives on BlackBerry 7 devices and service fees in some markets as a way to maintain our subscriber base and drive more BlackBerry users. The timing of the BlackBerry 10 launch event for January 30, 2013 could also impact sales of current BlackBerry 7 products as some customers may defer purchasing decisions and wait for BlackBerry 10 devices. All these factors are expected to impact unit volumes, subscribers, margins and service fees. "Subscribers were approximately 79 million compared to 80 million in the second quarter. The declines in the U.S. was a predominant factor for the reduction in the base, offset by more stable and slightly growing subscribers in non-U.S. regions." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Three relevant articles from MIT, two specifically on BBRY, and the other on the IoT and manufacturing. http://www.technologyreview.com/news/510321/rim-is-down-but-not-out/ http://www.technologyreview.com/news/510556/blackberrys-new-phones-score-points-on-technology/ http://www.technologyreview.com/news/509331/an-internet-for-manufacturing/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 tx, what are you using to determine break up value? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 tx, what are you using to determine break up value? I'll PM you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdWatchesBoxing Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Wellmont, when you write you prove how much you dont know. You wrote all the things above BB10 doesnt have. Have you ever used a current Blackberry phone or playbook? I have and I use daily all the things you stated "they dont have" Thats all the fingertip skin I will waste on you and I am surprised others here give you the time of day. Maybe get a life? I'm quoting Smazz's post just because I think it raises an interesting point. I have no desire to take any side in the debate, but I am currently using a hand me down BB torch and I have my gmail account, google maps, etc. Browsing sucks on it, but texting and email is great because of the keypad. I am a little biased towards Google/Android, but I try not to get locked down to just one company. My wife has an iPhone 5 (so I use it for LTE browsing when we're together). Our tablet is a transformer prime running jelly bean. Love that device. I guess I look forward to using different devices and learning different OS's. I've seen some hands-on videos of the Z10. It reminds me a bit of webOS. I had a Palm Pre before the Torch. I thought webOS showed a lot of promise, which, unfortunately, was dumped down the drain by HP. I'm looking forward to playing with the Z10 in stores. Closely looking at the Nexus 4 and the Z10 for my next phone, or maybe wait a little more to check out the S4. I have no skin in this game, but I do hope BlackBerry is successful. It would be good to have a solid number 3 choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 yes you can access gmail. you can access google maps. you can access google talk. you can access google+. you can access youtube. but you can't access it with the far superior google produced apps that provide the very best overall user experience. iow, your experience will be inferior to that of the google user on ios and android. but people will tolerate lots of things to prove a point to themselves, or to stay congruent to their view of the world. just like you choose to tolerate that awful browser. sometimes we don't do the rational thing all the time. sometimes we just make trade offs. bad browser for good keyboard and texting. People used to buy Ramblers and Pacers instead of Mustangs. It's what makes life interesting. lots of people are going to buy the z10. but it won't be because the google services on the phone will supply a quality user experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdWatchesBoxing Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Fine, whatever. Best user experience, OK, won't go into that, but I suggest you reread your own post and Smazz's reply. I'm going back to avoiding these tech threads. I'm done here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkirkpatrick Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 With the high trading volume in RIM, presumably a percentage is due to shorting. Back in the FFH heavy shorting days some of this was due to naked shorting. If one did naked short RIMM what are the implications of the ticker change. Is this passive or would it trigger a buyback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woodstove Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah, I wondered about that too. I will guess that it has no net effect on shortability, naked or otherwise, as one can readily make the argument that shares are equivalent, and borrow is in-the-works. What it does do, though, I'll guess, is require some human consideration (email or other trail) to say "all ok". It removes the "rogue computer system" defense. A non-event is my guess. But maybe a shot across the bows. As was Lenovo. Other ways exist if that is object. Interesting times! Would appreciate comments from others with knowledge of how things work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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