BB - BlackBerry

[txlaw]

I watched that Milken Institute video.  Best interview I've seen so far with Heins.  Definitely worth watching if you're interested at all in BBRY.

 

As I suspected, some of Heins' comments about tablets have been misconstrued by the media.  In response to a question about what Heins means by mobile computing, he said the following:

 

When Mike [Lazaridis] and I decided to build Blackberry 10, the vision was, this [holding up a Q10] is your computing power.  I mean, think about that statement, right, this is your one and only computing power that you will carry with you.

 

. . .

 

So this is where we are headed.  40, 50% of all mobile workers will use this one single device as their mobile computing power -- there is no more laptop.  I doubt whether there is a laptop in a few years from now . . . uh, whether there is a tablet a few years from now.  'Cause you can just connect it to a big screen, and off you go.

 

And then again in response to a question about Heins' view that the tablet will become obsolete five years from now and whether Blackberry would still consider getting into production of a tablet:

 

I think that if the vision of mobile computing based on one computing power at your hip or wherever you carry it comes through, then there's no reason to have a tablet.  There might be a reason to have a big screen . . .  Tablets themselves at the moment -- from a pure hardware perspective -- are not a good business model.  It's a crowded place, and there is one company that disrupted the entire profit pool because they're running a different business model -- they're using it as an e-commerce window, right, so they're not interested in making money with a tablet.  They have a business model which is a pretty savvy one -- making money from the e-commerce transactions that they're doing on that tablet, right?  So I don't see a lot of good reason to just get into this hardware battle again, and if I don't come up with a meaningful, valuable service proposition on a tablet that people are willing to pay for, then I won't do it.

 

So he appears to be expressing the view that Amazon (and others, presumably) are disrupting the tablet space such that you really need to make money off of tablets by providing a software or service offering.  He doesn't really address Apple's ability to make good money on tablets (at least at the moment), which is what he's being criticized for in the tech press.

 

The five years prediction may be a bit on the wild side, but I can see why he put that out there. 

 

Smart man... These guys are constantly pressed by the media to make predictions in an inherently unpredictable business.  I agree with his synopsis.  As much as I like my pad, a fold out screen with no on board computer is a more likely outcome.  The computer would sit elsewhere. 

 

I also think the keyboard is headed for obsolesence in favour of voice and virtual keyboards.  BBRY is working on integration beyond the phone device itself, and is well positioned to execute.

 

I certainly hope that they can execute!  We shall see.

[JSArbitrage]

Seriously people? Just because you guys support BB doesn't mean you have to listen to the CEO make crazy predictions.  The idea that in 5 years all mobile processing power will be outsourced to your cell phone is asinine.  Why would you even want that? Oh, you cell phone is out of battery? Can't use your tablet or laptop now.  Want to run a game with high-end graphics? Can't do that, we squeezed your processor into a box only a few millimeters thick with no ventilation.  Has the consumer computing world EVER gone to outsourced processing power? Or has the trend simply been getting as much power out of a form factor as possible, such that larger form factors have more power?

 

Being a tech CEO is such a great job.  It's one of the few executive positions where people don't ask what you are doing day-in-and-day-out to make a more valuable company.  They just ask what the world will be like in 5 years and if you suggest some incremental improvements with a few emerging trends, you get trashed.  You have to say, "Oh 5 years from now, the cell phone will replace all computing.  You house will run on your cell phone.  Battery life with be 50 years straight, blah, blah."

 

 

[CorpRaider]

Can I just say that the physical keyboard for fast typing mulit-taskers assertion I've heard some in the media make is kind of laughable.  We all know tweenagers are the fastest texters and typists on the planet and none of them use physical keyboards.  There is a market for physical keyboards for older people though. 

[txlaw]

Seriously people? Just because you guys support BB doesn't mean you have to listen to the CEO make crazy predictions.  The idea that in 5 years all mobile processing power will be outsourced to your cell phone is asinine.  Why would you even want that? Oh, you cell phone is out of battery? Can't use your tablet or laptop now.  Want to run a game with high-end graphics? Can't do that, we squeezed your processor into a box only a few millimeters thick with no ventilation.  Has the consumer computing world EVER gone to outsourced processing power? Or has the trend simply been getting as much power out of a form factor as possible, such that larger form factors have more power?

 

Being a tech CEO is such a great job.  It's one of the few executive positions where people don't ask what you are doing day-in-and-day-out to make a more valuable company.  They just ask what the world will be like in 5 years and if you suggest some incremental improvements with a few emerging trends, you get trashed.  You have to say, "Oh 5 years from now, the cell phone will replace all computing.  You house will run on your cell phone.  Battery life with be 50 years straight, blah, blah."

 

Wow -- what set you off?

 

I don't think it was a crazy prediction for the long term, though Heins was clearly trying to make a bold statement (marketing to the tech press and business people) by predicting this happening within 5 years.  I happen to believe that with ubiquitous and low latency connectivity, new battery technology, new technologies such as WHDI, and hardware that consumes a lot less power, a "thin client" smartphone that contains all of what you need is very, very possible, with interfaces being big dumb terminals with touch screens and other input devices/software. 

 

You can certainly disagree with Lazaridis, Heins, and board members like me, but you're starting to sound a bit like ValueInv here.  I'm not at all saying that Heins is correct whatsoever about his five year prediction.  In fact, I think that's highly unlikely to happen.

[Guest valueInv]

Seriously people? Just because you guys support BB doesn't mean you have to listen to the CEO make crazy predictions.  The idea that in 5 years all mobile processing power will be outsourced to your cell phone is asinine.  Why would you even want that? Oh, you cell phone is out of battery? Can't use your tablet or laptop now.  Want to run a game with high-end graphics? Can't do that, we squeezed your processor into a box only a few millimeters thick with no ventilation.  Has the consumer computing world EVER gone to outsourced processing power? Or has the trend simply been getting as much power out of a form factor as possible, such that larger form factors have more power?

 

Being a tech CEO is such a great job.  It's one of the few executive positions where people don't ask what you are doing day-in-and-day-out to make a more valuable company.  They just ask what the world will be like in 5 years and if you suggest some incremental improvements with a few emerging trends, you get trashed.  You have to say, "Oh 5 years from now, the cell phone will replace all computing.  You house will run on your cell phone.  Battery life with be 50 years straight, blah, blah."

 

Wow -- what set you off?

 

I don't think it was a crazy prediction for the long term, though Heins was clearly trying to make a bold statement (marketing to the tech press and business people) by predicting this happening within 5 years.  I happen to believe that with ubiquitous and low latency connectivity, new battery technology, new technologies such as WHDI, and hardware that consumes a lot less power, a "thin client" smartphone that contains all of what you need is very, very possible, with interfaces being big dumb terminals with touch screens and other input devices/software. 

 

You can certainly disagree with Lazaridis, Heins, and board members like me, but you're starting to sound a bit like ValueInv here.  I'm not at all saying that Heins is correct whatsoever about his five year prediction.  In fact, I think that's highly unlikely to happen.

 

Well, RIM is probably working on this device right now. It is probably the 'amazing' product that the CEO was talking about releasing at the end of the year.

[Guest wellmont]

Can I just say that the physical keyboard for fast typing mulit-taskers assertion I've heard some in the media make is kind of laughable.  We all know tweenagers are the fastest texters and typists on the planet and none of them use physical keyboards.  There is a market for physical keyboards for older people though.

 

true. the record for typing speed on a phone was done with Swype on Android. the physical keyboard for phones is a tiny niche that will go away. why? because screens are smaller and improvement in the experience is capped. it will never get any better. there are some people who still type their letters on IBM selectrics.

[Guest wellmont]

Seriously people? Just because you guys support BB doesn't mean you have to listen to the CEO make crazy predictions.  The idea that in 5 years all mobile processing power will be outsourced to your cell phone is asinine.  Why would you even want that? Oh, you cell phone is out of battery? Can't use your tablet or laptop now.  Want to run a game with high-end graphics? Can't do that, we squeezed your processor into a box only a few millimeters thick with no ventilation.  Has the consumer computing world EVER gone to outsourced processing power? Or has the trend simply been getting as much power out of a form factor as possible, such that larger form factors have more power?

 

Being a tech CEO is such a great job.  It's one of the few executive positions where people don't ask what you are doing day-in-and-day-out to make a more valuable company.  They just ask what the world will be like in 5 years and if you suggest some incremental improvements with a few emerging trends, you get trashed.  You have to say, "Oh 5 years from now, the cell phone will replace all computing.  You house will run on your cell phone.  Battery life with be 50 years straight, blah, blah."

 

basically he needs to justify why he isn't participating in the tablet market. and he can't very well say he tried but his product was awful.

[Guest wellmont]

 

Wow -- what set you off?

 

I don't think it was a crazy prediction for the long term, though Heins was clearly trying to make a bold statement (marketing to the tech press and business people) by predicting this happening within 5 years.  I happen to believe that with ubiquitous and low latency connectivity, new battery technology, new technologies such as WHDI, and hardware that consumes a lot less power, a "thin client" smartphone that contains all of what you need is very, very possible, with interfaces being big dumb terminals with touch screens and other input devices/software. 

 

You can certainly disagree with Lazaridis, Heins, and board members like me, but you're starting to sound a bit like ValueInv here.  I'm not at all saying that Heins is correct whatsoever about his five year prediction.  In fact, I think that's highly unlikely to happen.

 

he got some ink. but truth be told he has no idea what is going to happen in 5 years. And he certainly has no idea if bbry will even exist in it's current form, whether he will be around, or whether bbry will completely lose it's independence. I have to hand it to him. for being CEO of such an inconsequential technology company he does have a PR staff that gets him in front of the media.

[rkbabang]

Seriously people? Just because you guys support BB doesn't mean you have to listen to the CEO make crazy predictions.  The idea that in 5 years all mobile processing power will be outsourced to your cell phone is asinine.  Why would you even want that? Oh, you cell phone is out of battery? Can't use your tablet or laptop now.  Want to run a game with high-end graphics? Can't do that, we squeezed your processor into a box only a few millimeters thick with no ventilation.  Has the consumer computing world EVER gone to outsourced processing power? Or has the trend simply been getting as much power out of a form factor as possible, such that larger form factors have more power?

 

Being a tech CEO is such a great job.  It's one of the few executive positions where people don't ask what you are doing day-in-and-day-out to make a more valuable company.  They just ask what the world will be like in 5 years and if you suggest some incremental improvements with a few emerging trends, you get trashed.  You have to say, "Oh 5 years from now, the cell phone will replace all computing.  You house will run on your cell phone.  Battery life with be 50 years straight, blah, blah."

 

Wow -- what set you off?

 

I don't think it was a crazy prediction for the long term, though Heins was clearly trying to make a bold statement (marketing to the tech press and business people) by predicting this happening within 5 years.  I happen to believe that with ubiquitous and low latency connectivity, new battery technology, new technologies such as WHDI, and hardware that consumes a lot less power, a "thin client" smartphone that contains all of what you need is very, very possible, with interfaces being big dumb terminals with touch screens and other input devices/software. 

 

You can certainly disagree with Lazaridis, Heins, and board members like me, but you're starting to sound a bit like ValueInv here.  I'm not at all saying that Heins is correct whatsoever about his five year prediction.  In fact, I think that's highly unlikely to happen.

 

I think JSArbitrage is correct.  This reminds me of the late 90's when people thought the future of office computing was an office with one big computer and a lot of dumb terminals and virtual machines.  This never happened and never will.  As processing power becomes cheaper and smaller it means there is no reason not to put a processor in every device.  You won't see fewer things with processors you will see more and more.  Yes these devices may communicate with each other, but there will be processing power in each of them sufficient to handle whatever tasks are common for that device.

[Guest wellmont]

I watched that Milken Institute video.  Best interview I've seen so far with Heins.  Definitely worth watching if you're interested at all in BBRY.

 

As I suspected, some of Heins' comments about tablets have been misconstrued by the media.  In response to a question about what Heins means by mobile computing, he said the following:

 

When Mike [Lazaridis] and I decided to build Blackberry 10, the vision was, this [holding up a Q10] is your computing power.  I mean, think about that statement, right, this is your one and only computing power that you will carry with you.

 

. . .

 

So this is where we are headed.  40, 50% of all mobile workers will use this one single device as their mobile computing power -- there is no more laptop.  I doubt whether there is a laptop in a few years from now . . . uh, whether there is a tablet a few years from now.  'Cause you can just connect it to a big screen, and off you go.

 

And then again in response to a question about Heins' view that the tablet will become obsolete five years from now and whether Blackberry would still consider getting into production of a tablet:

 

I think that if the vision of mobile computing based on one computing power at your hip or wherever you carry it comes through, then there's no reason to have a tablet.  There might be a reason to have a big screen . . .  Tablets themselves at the moment -- from a pure hardware perspective -- are not a good business model.  It's a crowded place, and there is one company that disrupted the entire profit pool because they're running a different business model -- they're using it as an e-commerce window, right, so they're not interested in making money with a tablet.  They have a business model which is a pretty savvy one -- making money from the e-commerce transactions that they're doing on that tablet, right?  So I don't see a lot of good reason to just get into this hardware battle again, and if I don't come up with a meaningful, valuable service proposition on a tablet that people are willing to pay for, then I won't do it.

 

So he appears to be expressing the view that Amazon (and others, presumably) are disrupting the tablet space such that you really need to make money off of tablets by providing a software or service offering.  He doesn't really address Apple's ability to make good money on tablets (at least at the moment), which is what he's being criticized for in the tech press.

 

The five years prediction may be a bit on the wild side, but I can see why he put that out there.

 

this is actually pretty hilarious. ML and TH making predictions about the future of mobile computing. these are the guys that got caught completely flat footed when mobile phones shifted from being email devices to being complete internet access and computing devices. In the process they went from a company that made $4.5b on it's operations to losing $1.2b. That's how prescient they were.

 

Just go back and review some of the things ML said about the IP. Now the Milken conference goers are on edge of seat wondering where TH thinks things are headed.

[constructive]

Heins:

I think that if the vision of mobile computing based on one computing power at your hip or wherever you carry it comes through, then there's no reason to have a tablet.  There might be a reason to have a big screen . . .  Tablets themselves at the moment -- from a pure hardware perspective -- are not a good business model.  It's a crowded place, and there is one company that disrupted the entire profit pool because they're running a different business model -- they're using it as an e-commerce window, right, so they're not interested in making money with a tablet.  They have a business model which is a pretty savvy one -- making money from the e-commerce transactions that they're doing on that tablet, right?  So I don't see a lot of good reason to just get into this hardware battle again, and if I don't come up with a meaningful, valuable service proposition on a tablet that people are willing to pay for, then I won't do it.

 

I think this is very unlikely. But what I find interesting is that this prediction seems to be very bad news for Blackberry. If your phone runs your tablet and computer, you would choose a phone that has a credible tablet/laptop environment and ecosystem. Microsoft would be the most likely beneficiary in this scenario, followed by Apple and Google.

[PatOfThePig]

interesting stat in UK:

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1398561-blackberry-browsers-grows-21-in-the-uk-at-apple-s-expense-soon-to-overtake-samsung

[Guest wellmont]

interesting stat in UK:

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1398561-blackberry-browsers-grows-21-in-the-uk-at-apple-s-expense-soon-to-overtake-samsung

 

their global share in may 2013 is 3.66%.

[mikazo]

Hey guys, I just bought a Blackberry Q10 today and thought I'd share my anecdotal experiences with the phone after a few hours of toying with it.

 

The main reason I went for this phone is that I had been using a Blackberry Curve from 2010 up until now (when I accidentally put it through the washing machine). I can never stand typing on my wife's iPhone, so I opted for the only high-end smartphone with a keyboard. Plus, I'm sort of attached to Blackberry.

 

Anyway, the keyboard types very comfortably. I was able to pick it up and start using it easily right away, and it's definitely an improvement over the older model keyboards.

 

The touch screen however, is a different story. Having used an iPhone occasionally and thus setting a standard of expectations, I feel like the touch screen's accuracy on the Q10 is way under par. I have to stab at the screen with my thumb or finger in various areas in and around what I'm trying to click on until it takes. I'm not sure if this can be fixed in a future update, but I hope so. This behaviour occurs consistently in the BB10 OS menus, and is even worse in 3rd-party apps.

 

The Blackberry Hub is pretty cool, and it didn't take long for me to set up and sync Gmail, Outlook, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, etc. I'm still getting used to the touch gestures for peeking and so on, but I think once I get the hang of it, I'll use it often. It imported all my Facebook contacts right away. But oddly, when I add new contacts to my SIM card, they show up in the Phone app's contact list but not the Contacts app. Same thing when my Facebook contacts don't always show up in one app or the other (I can't remember which). I remember reading about this issue in a review of the Q10 somewhere.

 

I bought the "Stocks for Blackberry 10" app for $3 and it seems ok (apart from suffering from the aforementioned touch screen inaccuracy). Maybe I'll post more on that later, after I've had a chance to use it.

 

I'm not sure how the Q10 compares to the Z10 (having never used a Z10), but I was pretty excited for this phone (mainly because of the keyboard) and had/have high hopes. The touch screen issue is the only truly frustrating thing, and here's hoping that they can fix it.

[Fairfaxnut]

 

The touch screen however, is a different story. Having used an iPhone occasionally and thus setting a standard of expectations, I feel like the touch screen's accuracy on the Q10 is way under par. I have to stab at the screen with my thumb or finger in various areas in and around what I'm trying to click on until it takes. I'm not sure if this can be fixed in a future update, but I hope so. This behaviour occurs consistently in the BB10 OS menus, and is even worse in 3rd-party apps.

 

 

 

Never noticed this on my Z10....maybe a manufacturing defect?  I came from a Iphone 4S

[valueorama]

Best level headed analysis on an analyst and some talk of numbers. Very well done.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1424721-blackberry-how-a-vocal-bear-stealthily-increased-his-forecasts

 

 

[nwoodman]

Peter MIsek: BBRY BES and NOC may take share price to $30 & possible MSFT takeout

 

http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f329/peter-misek-bbry-bes-noc-may-take-share-price-30-possible-msft-takeout-805499/

 

"Peter Misek, who follows BlackBerry for Jefferies & Co., and rates its shares Buy, doesn't expect BlackBerry will win the smartphone wars. But with perhaps 500 million corporate users of email on mobile devices, worldwide, Misek reasons that if just 10% of them were to take up BlackBerry's offer to use the NOC, and if each one paid $100 per year, the result would be a steady $5 billion in revenue for BlackBerry annually.

 

Put a 42% operating margin on that, and you could be looking at $2.50 per share in earnings, for a stock worth $30 at a P/E multiple of 12. With a steady $5 billion in security revenue, BlackBerry could be attractive to an acquirer, he thinks. For example, Misek speculates that Microsoft might want to boost its standing in mobile by buying the company."

 

[Guest valueInv]

 

http://qz.com/84450/blackberry-is-fading-from-its-biggest-market-indonesia/

[Guest wellmont]

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/04/17/price-drops-hit-blackberry-z10-batam.html

 

I guess there is deflation?

[Guest valueInv]

In the age of BYOD, great incentive for people to buy BB10s ;):

 

http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-232482/

[txlaw]

In the age of BYOD, great incentive for people to buy BB10s ;):

 

http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-232482/

 

You should probably be reaching the opposite conclusion on this one.  The whole point of Blackberry Balance (which now works on BB10, Android, and iOS) and BES 10.1 is to make it so that IT departments can allow BYOD and be comfortable with it.

 

Here's where we see the value in more than just Blackberry devices.

[txlaw]

So what do folks think about BBM being opened up to be cross platform?  Basically becoming a WhatsApp-like product that goes through RIM infrastructure and that also allows video conferencing and screen sharing?  Or being  a Skype competitor?

 

On the one hand, it could easily reduce the demand for Blackberry devices in places where Blackberry has traction because users can now buy Android and iOS devices and still communicate with people on their network who are on Blackberries.  Not that that was a major draw in any case.

 

On the other hand, it could increase the value of the Blackberry/BBM brand, especially if you see that type of functionality integrated into cars.  And, presumably, BBM could benefit from being viewed as the more "secure" messaging solution.

 

Btw, how many people use WhatsApp?  I do.

[Guest wellmont]

it's too late. there are many other cross platform apps  that are better or do the same thing which are already entrenched. but it's really a recognition that users are fleeing the bbry platform. this was something bbry management had to do, not wanted to do. and besides it's not a revenue producer anyway. lets see what google comes up with this week that widens it's lead over bbry even more.

[txlaw]

it's too late. there are many other cross platform apps  that are better or do the same thing which are already entrenched. but it's really a recognition that users are fleeing the bbry platform. this was something bbry management had to do, not wanted to do. and besides it's not a revenue producer anyway. lets see what google comes up with this week that widens it's lead over bbry even more.

 

It might be too late if we're talking about consumers, but I'm not so sure with enterprise customers.  The value added proposition of BBM versus iMessage or alternatives is that it is more secure and can be embedded into other devices (via QNX/BB10).  Basically, you can put all of your employees on BBM for instant messaging in a way that is more secure, particularly when you deploy BES 10.1.

 

It's the enterprise messaging aspect of BBM that is intriguing.  Makes sense given the shift to BYOD, and it's a way to make BES and RIM infrastructure even more valuable.

 

I like this development.

[Guest wellmont]

except enterprises are getting rid of their bb phones and buying galaxies iphones and lumias. msft has a great messaging story and so does apple. so does google. I am afraid that all of this is too little too late. you can't fall behind if you are in the business of supplying technology. you can't miss a cycle. rimm missed two cycles. this is a sea change. enterprises at one time bought lots and lots of Razrs.