Guest valueInv Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 OK this is getting weird. Are we seeing a slowdown in Smartphone sales worldwide? http://www.techradar.com/news/phone-and-communications/mobile-phones/has-the-galaxy-s4-peaked-already-slowing-demand-hits-samsung-shares-1157362 The above article claims, samsung shares down 6% due to S4 sales peaking. We already have reports of IPhone sales slowdown(why would Apple start iphone trade-in program). As i see it can be one of the following: 1. BB and Nokia are eating Samsung and Apple's market share. Highly unlikely. We dont hear of Qs in front of stores. 2. Non-brand phones are selling more phones. There is a small possibility. 3. General slowdown in smartphone adoption, hence slow sale of smart phones. Highly probable. What is your thought? Market segmentation - the high end is saturating while the lower tiers are still growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 PS: More -> http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/6/20/twitter-as-a-window-into-smartphone-distribution Cool Tool. Mexico City: http://www.mapbox.com/labs/twitter-gnip/brands/#11/19.3665/-99.1437 Buenos Aires: http://www.mapbox.com/labs/twitter-gnip/brands/#10/-34.6284/-58.4278 Caracas: http://www.mapbox.com/labs/twitter-gnip/brands/#12/10.5028/-66.8784 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 You guys probably saw this already, but Misek is reiterating a $22 price target and a blowout quarter based in the results of companies he believes to be manufacturing BBRY parts. http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/06/20/bbry-fyq1-set-to-blow-away-consensus-says-jefferies-upside-possible-says-evercore/?mod=yahoobarrons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 You guys probably saw this already, but Misek is reiterating a $22 price target and a blowout quarter based in the results of companies he believes to be manufacturing BBRY parts. http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/06/20/bbry-fyq1-set-to-blow-away-consensus-says-jefferies-upside-possible-says-evercore/?mod=yahoobarrons lol. misek should probably just be drawing a bbry salary. make it official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Hi guys, I don’t follow BBRY closely, so I am just asking: anyone knows why BBRY doesn’t support the Audible application anymore?! It is really annoying and frankly disappointing… giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 -18.2 % pre market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueorama Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Down roughly 25% now. They reported 6.8mm devices sold, of which 2.72mm were BB10 devices. More disturbing trend in my opinion is that they lost 4mm customers overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla 1h The fact that $BBRY doesn't disclose #BB10 shipments in press release is all you need to know. Dasan @Dasan 1h $BBRY to no longer report total number of subscribers. OK, I guess that solves the problem of missing expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla 1h The fact that $BBRY doesn't disclose #BB10 shipments in press release is all you need to know. Dasan @Dasan 1h $BBRY to no longer report total number of subscribers. OK, I guess that solves the problem of missing expectations. Where did Bloomberg get the numbers from? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-28/blackberry-plunges-after-smartphone-maker-reports-surprise-loss.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla 1h The fact that $BBRY doesn't disclose #BB10 shipments in press release is all you need to know. Dasan @Dasan 1h $BBRY to no longer report total number of subscribers. OK, I guess that solves the problem of missing expectations. Where did Bloomberg get the numbers from? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-28/blackberry-plunges-after-smartphone-maker-reports-surprise-loss.html somebody asked them on the call what shipments were. they did not publish it in the press release. they also did not disclose sell through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Down 27%. What is disturbing is that all this time, management has been giving the impression that the BB10 has been a smashing success -breaking records, biggest orders, etc. Today they sent a clear message to app developers - don't bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Down 27%. What is disturbing is that all this time, management has been giving the impression that the BB10 has been a smashing success -breaking records, biggest orders, etc. Today they sent a clear message to app developers - don't bother. yep. this is why I never even listen to management anymore. :) it's a good way to go broke. I like that Cook is publicity shy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 They sold half of Lumia: http://gigaom.com/2013/06/28/blackberry-10-handset-sales-last-quarter-just-half-that-of-nokias-lumia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 They sold half of Lumia: http://gigaom.com/2013/06/28/blackberry-10-handset-sales-last-quarter-just-half-that-of-nokias-lumia Thorsten: we're number 4? Any word on bb10 licenses? ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Actually, Blackberry management guided for a breakeven quarter, and if you exclude the Venezuelan issues (deferred revenue collection is being affected both by currency restrictions), they met their guidance for breakeven. But only 2.7 million BB10 units shipped. Expectations among analysts apparently averaged at above 3 million shipments. Expectations were much higher and short interest was high. Moreover, BBRY did not disclose sell-through percentage. So the market reaction is not surprising. What I dislike a lot about the press release is that it is not detailed enough. They should have disclosed BB10 shipments. They should have disclosed subscriber base, as per usual. Also there is no mention of BES, QNX, or BBM in the press release. There is no mention of how many BES downloaders are indicating adoption of the $99 per device Secure Work Space solution, which will be very important to determining what service revenue will be in the long run. This I do not understand. If they are going to discuss in the CC, why not put it in the press release as well? Here's the CC transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1526612-blackberry-ceo-discusses-f1q14-results-earnings-call-transcript . The most important excerpts are below: On your second question, about how to monetize on BES, the way I look at this, and what we’re building with BES, is not just a cross-platform mobile device management system. What we’re actually building is a mobile enterprise service platform. And if you look at what I just talked about in the script, you can imagine this sitting there as a platform that will be monetized by itself by whatever means, but they you put these additional services on top of that platform, one of which then will be cross-platform mobile device management, one of which will be security, and then one of which will be secure work space for third-party devices. So we will monetize through the platform but also through services sitting on top of that. And one of the examples was over the air software download into the automotive sector. So we’re working on initiatives that are not just within the classical enterprise workforce or productivity environment. We’re working with examples, and on projects, where we actually help vertical industries to get much more productive and efficient and being capable of doing things they couldn’t do today on an extremely reliable and secure data network. This is key to run-off/break-up value. The OS continues to be commoditized, and BBRY has to provide a software and services solution of some value that utilizes their assets. And then: Just a couple of clarifications. Brian, one thing I’m struggling with is on the cash flow side. If it wasn’t for the income tax receivables benefit you had, you would have burned probably $400 million or $500 million of cash. And given the launches you’ve got ahead, can you actually not burn cash in the next couple of quarters? That’s my first question. . . . Just on your comment, we fully anticipated that with the launch of these products we were going to, as it relates to working capital, consume some working capital as it relates to investing in these launches. And as we move forward, we think we have the right financial strength for the long term execution on the launch of these products. So as we work through it we’ll continue to look at how do we optimize and manage our working capital going forward. This seems to me to be a non-answer that implies that cash will be burned in the next quarters. That's very important to recognize because cash burn will affect run-off/break-up value. If BBRY burns too much cash, and there is no return on those investments ($1.3 billion run-rate on capex and intangible asset purchases), then my estimation of run-off/break-up value could be too high and might be closer to what BBRY is currently trading at. I'm adding today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Actually, Blackberry management guided for a breakeven quarter, and if you exclude the Venezuelan issues (deferred revenue collection is being affected both by currency restrictions), they met their guidance for breakeven. But only 2.7 million BB10 units shipped. Expectations among analysts apparently averaged at above 3 million shipments. Expectations were much higher and short interest was high. Moreover, BBRY did not disclose sell-through percentage. So the market reaction is not surprising. What I dislike a lot about the press release is that it is not detailed enough. They should have disclosed BB10 shipments. They should have disclosed subscriber base, as per usual. Also there is no mention of BES, QNX, or BBM in the press release. There is no mention of how many BES downloaders are indicating adoption of the $99 per device Secure Work Space solution, which will be very important to determining what service revenue will be in the long run. This I do not understand. If they are going to discuss in the CC, why not put it in the press release as well? Here's the CC transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1526612-blackberry-ceo-discusses-f1q14-results-earnings-call-transcript . The most important excerpts are below: On your second question, about how to monetize on BES, the way I look at this, and what we’re building with BES, is not just a cross-platform mobile device management system. What we’re actually building is a mobile enterprise service platform. And if you look at what I just talked about in the script, you can imagine this sitting there as a platform that will be monetized by itself by whatever means, but they you put these additional services on top of that platform, one of which then will be cross-platform mobile device management, one of which will be security, and then one of which will be secure work space for third-party devices. So we will monetize through the platform but also through services sitting on top of that. And one of the examples was over the air software download into the automotive sector. So we’re working on initiatives that are not just within the classical enterprise workforce or productivity environment. We’re working with examples, and on projects, where we actually help vertical industries to get much more productive and efficient and being capable of doing things they couldn’t do today on an extremely reliable and secure data network. This is key to run-off/break-up value. The OS continues to be commoditized, and BBRY has to provide a software and services solution of some value that utilizes their assets. And then: Just a couple of clarifications. Brian, one thing I’m struggling with is on the cash flow side. If it wasn’t for the income tax receivables benefit you had, you would have burned probably $400 million or $500 million of cash. And given the launches you’ve got ahead, can you actually not burn cash in the next couple of quarters? That’s my first question. . . . Just on your comment, we fully anticipated that with the launch of these products we were going to, as it relates to working capital, consume some working capital as it relates to investing in these launches. And as we move forward, we think we have the right financial strength for the long term execution on the launch of these products. So as we work through it we’ll continue to look at how do we optimize and manage our working capital going forward. This seems to me to be a non-answer that implies that cash will be burned in the next quarters. That's very important to recognize because cash burn will affect run-off/break-up value. If BBRY burns too much cash, and there is no return on those investments ($1.3 billion run-rate on capex and intangible asset purchases), then my estimation of run-off/break-up value could be too high and might be closer to what BBRY is currently trading at. I'm adding today. Let me break it down for you - when management has a positive metric to report, they will stand on every rooftop and shout. When they don't, they won't disclose it for "competitive reasons". In Silicon Valley, that is called a "vanity metric". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 did they talk much about the "internet of things" on the CC? asking for a friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grenville Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Actually, Blackberry management guided for a breakeven quarter, and if you exclude the Venezuelan issues (deferred revenue collection is being affected both by currency restrictions), they met their guidance for breakeven. But only 2.7 million BB10 units shipped. Expectations among analysts apparently averaged at above 3 million shipments. Expectations were much higher and short interest was high. Moreover, BBRY did not disclose sell-through percentage. So the market reaction is not surprising. What I dislike a lot about the press release is that it is not detailed enough. They should have disclosed BB10 shipments. They should have disclosed subscriber base, as per usual. Also there is no mention of BES, QNX, or BBM in the press release. There is no mention of how many BES downloaders are indicating adoption of the $99 per device Secure Work Space solution, which will be very important to determining what service revenue will be in the long run. This I do not understand. If they are going to discuss in the CC, why not put it in the press release as well? Here's the CC transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1526612-blackberry-ceo-discusses-f1q14-results-earnings-call-transcript . The most important excerpts are below: On your second question, about how to monetize on BES, the way I look at this, and what we’re building with BES, is not just a cross-platform mobile device management system. What we’re actually building is a mobile enterprise service platform. And if you look at what I just talked about in the script, you can imagine this sitting there as a platform that will be monetized by itself by whatever means, but they you put these additional services on top of that platform, one of which then will be cross-platform mobile device management, one of which will be security, and then one of which will be secure work space for third-party devices. So we will monetize through the platform but also through services sitting on top of that. And one of the examples was over the air software download into the automotive sector. So we’re working on initiatives that are not just within the classical enterprise workforce or productivity environment. We’re working with examples, and on projects, where we actually help vertical industries to get much more productive and efficient and being capable of doing things they couldn’t do today on an extremely reliable and secure data network. This is key to run-off/break-up value. The OS continues to be commoditized, and BBRY has to provide a software and services solution of some value that utilizes their assets. And then: Just a couple of clarifications. Brian, one thing I’m struggling with is on the cash flow side. If it wasn’t for the income tax receivables benefit you had, you would have burned probably $400 million or $500 million of cash. And given the launches you’ve got ahead, can you actually not burn cash in the next couple of quarters? That’s my first question. . . . Just on your comment, we fully anticipated that with the launch of these products we were going to, as it relates to working capital, consume some working capital as it relates to investing in these launches. And as we move forward, we think we have the right financial strength for the long term execution on the launch of these products. So as we work through it we’ll continue to look at how do we optimize and manage our working capital going forward. This seems to me to be a non-answer that implies that cash will be burned in the next quarters. That's very important to recognize because cash burn will affect run-off/break-up value. If BBRY burns too much cash, and there is no return on those investments ($1.3 billion run-rate on capex and intangible asset purchases), then my estimation of run-off/break-up value could be too high and might be closer to what BBRY is currently trading at. I'm adding today. Txlaw, Appreciate the color and the excerpts from the CC. The cash burn is important when thinking about a break up value. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 did they talk much about the "internet of things" on the CC? asking for a friend... No, but if you have been following the company, QNX continue to make announcements that directly implicate M2M and IoT. See the following: http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5602_1.html http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5498_2.html You can even see this in their older announcements: http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5165_2.html Check out the following: http://www.qnx.com/news/release.html I have no idea why they never talk about this on their earnings calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 did they talk much about the "internet of things" on the CC? asking for a friend... No, but if you have been following the company, QNX continue to make announcements that directly implicate M2M and IoT. See the following: http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5602_1.html http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5498_2.html You can even see this in their older announcements: http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5165_2.html Check out the following: http://www.qnx.com/news/release.html I have no idea why they never talk about this on their earnings calls. I do. because it's not a good story. Android is the clear winner in m2m. and btw, what is the business case for qnx in this area? what is the revenue and profit model when the OS is a free commodity? notice the qnx PR is about getting more android compatibility. like was said before, management is self serving. if it will help their case they will tell you about it. if it won't, they will omit it and hope nobody asks about it. tx you're a good analyst. but you listen to management too much. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 did they talk much about the "internet of things" on the CC? asking for a friend... No, but if you have been following the company, QNX continue to make announcements that directly implicate M2M and IoT. See the following: http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5602_1.html http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5498_2.html You can even see this in their older announcements: http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5165_2.html Check out the following: http://www.qnx.com/news/release.html I have no idea why they never talk about this on their earnings calls. I do. because it's not a good story. Android is the clear winner in m2m. and btw, what is the business case for qnx in this area? what is the revenue and profit model when the OS is a free commodity? notice the qnx PR is about getting more android compatibility. like was said before, management is self serving. if it will help their case they will tell you about it. if it won't, they will omit it and hope nobody asks about it. tx you're a good analyst. but you listen to management too much. :) There is no clear winner (if there ever will be a "winner") in M2M and IoT. We're in the early stages. More importantly, the winner-take-all view is not the correct one when it comes to valuation here. Ultimately, it is about monetizing the market share that BBRY retains/wins in the M2M/IoT space. If QNX retains and grows mission critical market share (check out the places where QNX runs) and then monetizes this market share through the "mobile enterprise service platform" mentioned on the CC, then there is going concern value in the services/software side of the biz. That's the main takeaway that explains why I value BBRY's intangible assets (not including patents) at something more than $0. For example, how much value could there be in QNX if the auto companies that use it in their infotainment systems start using Blackberry services? What would the value of BES be if it is used to manage not just phone or tablets, but also connected machines? As to management, I wouldn't say I'm trusting of management, generally, but I do tend to give some weight to management when investors like HWIC get heavily involved in a situation. Note that I had no desire to even touch BBRY before FFH got involved (despite my admiration of Lazaridis as an entrepreneur/engineer/inventor). However, once Watsa went on the board, I basically made the determination that management would be kept in check with respect to throwing assets down the drain. I think in this case, Heins is not necessarily being self-serving -- he is being somewhat defensive. There is a reflexivity aspect here that we have to take into account. Perception of Blackberry the company will affect adoption in the enterprise. If enterprise thinks BBRY is destined to go into BK, for example, they won't adopt the "mobile enterprise service platform" that BBRY is building. So you have to manage perception even when it comes to earnings releases. This explains Heins' sideways answer to the cash burn question, which focused on the company's financial strength. I do wish that Heins would give more Marchionne-like responses to these questions. Because he is definitely going to get criticism now from analysts who jump on this defensive answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 bbry gets out of the tablet business today. and angers many users. :-[ "I am done with f@ BlackBerry. Not only I am not going to buy BlackBerry , I am going to sell my stock n walk away from BlackBerry. " Posted via CB10 "So it's time for Android phone/tablet? Didn't wanted to do this but after treating loyal customers like **** I don't want to support this company no more. Lesson of Xbox One should give them something to think about fans.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 As an aside, the reflexivity point I made above has changed my views on whether or not Michael Dell is being an a-hole and stealing DELL from shareholders. I initially believed that Dell was just totally screwing over shareholders in order to capture all of the upside of DELL for himself. However, I now think that Michael Dell actually believes that DELL is worth less as a public company because of: (1) the way that headline numbers and articles about the woes of the PC industry affect customer perception; and (2) DELL's inability to invest all excess cash into the transformation due to public shareholder opposition. Michael Dell clearly wants to plow all excess cash flow into the transformation because he recognizes that change in the tech sector is so rapid that you have to have the ability to be nimble and jump on investments in a rapid fashion. He seems to believe that this is not possible when you have public shareholders to deal with. And then he also seems to think that potential customers (especially mid-market customers) are probably foregoing business with DELL because of the perception they are forming based on the tech and biz press. And there's also the issue of having to deal with SG&A cuts (i.e., layoffs) when you're a public company. So in Michael Dell's mind, he might actually think that shareholders are getting a good deal at the current offer price. I'd disagree with him there, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 did they talk much about the "internet of things" on the CC? asking for a friend... No, but if you have been following the company, QNX continue to make announcements that directly implicate M2M and IoT. See the following: http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5602_1.html http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5498_2.html You can even see this in their older announcements: http://www.qnx.com/news/pr_5165_2.html Check out the following: http://www.qnx.com/news/release.html I have no idea why they never talk about this on their earnings calls. I do. because it's not a good story. Android is the clear winner in m2m. and btw, what is the business case for qnx in this area? what is the revenue and profit model when the OS is a free commodity? notice the qnx PR is about getting more android compatibility. like was said before, management is self serving. if it will help their case they will tell you about it. if it won't, they will omit it and hope nobody asks about it. tx you're a good analyst. but you listen to management too much. :) IIRC, Apple announced that 9 car manufacturers are going to support Apple's interface on their dashboards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 IIRC, Apple announced that 9 car manufacturers are going to support Apple's interface on their dashboards. android and apple are going to dominate car infotainment. perhaps that's why Thorsten does not talk much about QNX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now