BB - BlackBerry

[valueorama]

IIRC, Apple announced that 9 car manufacturers are going to support Apple's interface on their dashboards.

 

Well from car manufacturers perspective, it really doesnt matter who they use. As long as they get what they want.

 

What is impressive is that QNX, a no-name, actually has a foothold in this market.  QNX is already being used by Bentley, Tesla, et al and on the road as we chat.

[Guest wellmont]

representative sample of BB playbook users upon hearing news they won't get bb10 on their pb.

 

I will sell also my Q10 and PlayBook. I am not that stupid. I need a good tablet+smartphone eco system. I was a loyal user. With my Q10 , no Bridge like we used to have on a Bold 9900 anymore.

 

It is very sad, but I will go back to Apple and buy an iPad Mini and iPhone. At least Apple will always be the best when it comes to Apps, eco system and Updates.

 

With that move, Blackberry made a really bad move. Now it's over. No more grey hairs anymore. This is it. Hello again Apple.

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

Haven't posted on this thread for awhile, but I have to say the short sellers (of which I am one) were vindicated today. In the last few months, the lack of disclosure from Blackberry on the numbers that really mattered (whereas disclosure on trivial wins being loudly trumpeted) were very clear signals that BB10 was in trouble. When you look at what Microsoft and Nokia are trying to do with Windows Phone, you get an idea of just how tough it is to break the Apple/Google duopoly on mobile. Microsoft in particular have pumped billions into Windows Phone and despite everything they've done, they've barely managed to nab 3% of the market in about 3 years of constantly trying. Just like I said the Playbook would fail, I expect BB10 to fail. Don't get me wrong, I have used BB10 and like it. But mobile is consolidating around the big players who have very deep pockets. Blackberry operate on sales and marketing budgets that are about 1/10th that of the major players. The only way they can win is if they deliver an incredible innovation (they have nothing here) or else if their competitors stumble (none of them appear to have done so). Quite simply, Blackberry aren't failing through lack of effort, they're failing because they're jump a 50ft wall.

 

The real question now is how long Blackberry are going to pursue their present course. If the board are smart, they'll give it another quarter before they start looking at "strategic alternatives" - i.e. dropping BB10. If you ask me, Microsoft may very well end up stepping in and doing a deal to bring Windows Phone to BB devices. With that kind of backing, Blackberry might just have a chance in surviving. Microsoft also get to expand WP market share to businesses and corporations. Blackberry would want to decide quickly though, each quarter they are shedding market share and customers.

[Guest valueInv]

Haven't posted on this thread for awhile, but I have to say the short sellers (of which I am one) were vindicated today. In the last few months, the lack of disclosure from Blackberry on the numbers that really mattered (whereas disclosure on trivial wins being loudly trumpeted) were very clear signals that BB10 was in trouble. When you look at what Microsoft and Nokia are trying to do with Windows Phone, you get an idea of just how tough it is to break the Apple/Google duopoly on mobile. Microsoft in particular have pumped billions into Windows Phone and despite everything they've done, they've barely managed to nab 3% of the market in about 3 years of constantly trying. Just like I said the Playbook would fail, I expect BB10 to fail. Don't get me wrong, I have used BB10 and like it. But mobile is consolidating around the big players who have very deep pockets. Blackberry operate on sales and marketing budgets that are about 1/10th that of the major players. The only way they can win is if they deliver an incredible innovation (they have nothing here) or else if their competitors stumble (none of them appear to have done so). Quite simply, Blackberry aren't failing through lack of effort, they're failing because they're jump a 50ft wall.

 

The real question now is how long Blackberry are going to pursue their present course. If the board are smart, they'll give it another quarter before they start looking at "strategic alternatives" - i.e. dropping BB10. If you ask me, Microsoft may very well end up stepping in and doing a deal to bring Windows Phone to BB devices. With that kind of backing, Blackberry might just have a chance in surviving. Microsoft also get to expand WP market share to businesses and corporations. Blackberry would want to decide quickly though, each quarter they are shedding market share and customers.

 

That would take a lot of courage for management to kill BB10 and adopt Windows. Most likely, they will drag their feet until it is too late and margins are too low.

[txlaw]

Haven't posted on this thread for awhile, but I have to say the short sellers (of which I am one) were vindicated today. In the last few months, the lack of disclosure from Blackberry on the numbers that really mattered (whereas disclosure on trivial wins being loudly trumpeted) were very clear signals that BB10 was in trouble. When you look at what Microsoft and Nokia are trying to do with Windows Phone, you get an idea of just how tough it is to break the Apple/Google duopoly on mobile. Microsoft in particular have pumped billions into Windows Phone and despite everything they've done, they've barely managed to nab 3% of the market in about 3 years of constantly trying. Just like I said the Playbook would fail, I expect BB10 to fail. Don't get me wrong, I have used BB10 and like it. But mobile is consolidating around the big players who have very deep pockets. Blackberry operate on sales and marketing budgets that are about 1/10th that of the major players. The only way they can win is if they deliver an incredible innovation (they have nothing here) or else if their competitors stumble (none of them appear to have done so). Quite simply, Blackberry aren't failing through lack of effort, they're failing because they're jump a 50ft wall.

 

The real question now is how long Blackberry are going to pursue their present course. If the board are smart, they'll give it another quarter before they start looking at "strategic alternatives" - i.e. dropping BB10. If you ask me, Microsoft may very well end up stepping in and doing a deal to bring Windows Phone to BB devices. With that kind of backing, Blackberry might just have a chance in surviving. Microsoft also get to expand WP market share to businesses and corporations. Blackberry would want to decide quickly though, each quarter they are shedding market share and customers.

 

From my perspective, short sellers have only been vindicated insofar that they correctly predicted that the quarter would come in lower than analyst estimates.  IMO, they are wrong on valuation, even if BB10 "fails."

 

With respect to strategy, it would be a huge mistake for BBRY to adopt Windows.  There's absolutely no competitive advantage there for BBRY.  They don't have the scale of a Samsung or HTC, and the adoption of Windows would essentially make the software and services side of BBRY less competitive.  This would also make QNX a lot less valuable. 

 

What BBRY has to do is get QNX into as many places as possible and then sell software and services tied to QNX.  The key for the next quarters is to watch whether or not enterprise adopts BES and Secure Work Space, whether or not BBM is adopted on a more widespread basis after it is opened up to Android and iOS, and whether QNX continues to be installed in more places.

[Guest wellmont]

it's too late to change strategy. it's too late to switch to windows. it's too late to switch to android. they made a bet on bb10 and now must live with the consequences. Keep in mind that the bet on bb10 was made by New management in combination with the pw led board of directors, and wall street consultants. all the "experts" said this would work. when they fired the old management, the bod performed a comprehensive study of how to move bbry forward. the plan they came up with was to bet on bb10/qnx with new devices, and to milk the old devices for as long as they can in emerging markets.

 

there were plenty of people saying back in 2012 when CEOs were fired that bbry should have exited the device business (which is loss making), or switched to either android or windows. take the short term hit for a chance at long term gain. but BOD ignored that advice. they turned down a partnership offer from Nokia.

 

bbry can not get out of the device business without significant pain. if they tried to exit, the subscription revenue, which is in decline at the moment, would go into free fall. In short, the bod has bet the company on bb10 winning. so far that bet is not looking good. If bbry hatches a plan to exit the device business, or the market begins to anticipate that they will, that's a signal that bb10 did not work. And I would expect significantly lower stock price; because now bbry trades under the implicit assumption that bb10/qnx is going to succeed and add value.  outside of bbb10 devices, bbry would begin to trade on the finite value of it's subscription revenue, patents, the value of some enterprise software offerings that have now been somewhat commoditized, and net cash.

[Guest wellmont]

just thought of this. the more bb10 phones they sell to current customers, the more subscribers they lose. :) and this is why bbry will no longer be reporting the number of subscribers it has.

[Guest wellmont]

the markets are beginning to discount a bbry exit from the device business. the market is beginning to fashion a vision of the company ex devices. investors also anticipating faster movement on restructuring bbry, which is inevitable. As such it's becoming a more attractive security imo.

[Guest wellmont]

this article makes the case that bbry is losing to msft for #3. And it looks like there won't be a #4.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-07-03/blackberry-fades-in-fight-to-contend-with-apple-and-google

[Guest valueInv]

this article makes the case that bbry is losing to msft for #3. And it looks like there won't be a #4.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-07-03/blackberry-fades-in-fight-to-contend-with-apple-and-google

 

And that is a tailspin. In their last earning call, BBRY sent a message that will cause operators, app developers and enterprises to shift investments away from BBRY. People in the industry understand that.

 

http://www.engadget.com/2013/06/26/microsoft-telefonica-wp8-push/

 

A cheaper iPhone makes things worse for them and others. It means that they are going to have to price less than Apple - not good for companies already losing money. And the iOS 7 redesign is causing everyone else to redesign their apps, sucking developer resources away from other platforms.

 

[Guest wellmont]

msft is about to refresh wp8. Nokia is back making solid phones at attractive price points. apple has a low cost iphone coming with new os and services. moto x phones coming. and android is due for a refresh as well. samsung is a given. it doesn't get any easier.

 

this article makes the case that bbry is losing to msft for #3. And it looks like there won't be a #4.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-07-03/blackberry-fades-in-fight-to-contend-with-apple-and-google

 

And that is a tailspin. In their last earning call, BBRY sent a message that will cause operators, app developers and enterprises to shift investments away from BBRY. People in the industry understand that.

 

http://www.engadget.com/2013/06/26/microsoft-telefonica-wp8-push/

 

A cheaper iPhone makes things worse for them and others. It means that they are going to have to price less than Apple - not good for companies already losing money. And the iOS 7 redesign is causing everyone else to redesign their apps, sucking developer resources away from other platforms.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I've got a question:

 

How likely is it that developers will abandon BlackBerry after just a single bad quarter given the following:

 

1) Blackberry's rollout was staggered and doesn't line up well with quarterly results resulting in lack of transparency into Q10 figures

 

2) the main erosion in subscribers is largely from emerging markets that the Q5 is aimed at targeting this Summer.

 

3) until recently windows phone was last and people still developed for it. Why abandon BBRY now just because its in last place and addressing the issues that put it there.

 

4) corporations could still add to BB10 in a large way one testing is done.

 

I'm bullish on blackberry, think their phones are far beyond windows' offering (though am a longtime Droid user), but I'm concerned developers may abandon ship too soon. Are they really that fickle to have given Windows multiple quarters to prove itself and abandon BBRY after just this one disappointing quarter?

[Guest wellmont]

you first have to embrace a platform before abandoning it. the real question for me is will developers even embrace bb10. so far the answer is no. there is a post a couple before this that explains why. they are too busy elsewhere to be bothered by a platform that has less than 3% global share (and falling). why would a developer write native apps for the 4th most popular ecosystem? And even if they do they will first put their most ambitious and productive ideas on IOS and Android first.

[Josh4580]

Why didn't Blackberry just focus on handsets with a real keyboard?

 

Why even try to compete in the virtual keyboard space with the Z10?

 

Next quarter is much more important than this quarter because any loyal Blackberry user would upgrade to the Q10 instead of the Z10.  Lets wait to see those Q10 numbers. 

 

Thoughts?

[Guest wellmont]

Why didn't Blackberry just focus on handsets with a real keyboard?

 

Why even try to compete in the virtual keyboard space with the Z10?

 

Next quarter is much more important than this quarter because any loyal Blackberry user would upgrade to the Q10 instead of the Z10.  Lets wait to see those Q10 numbers. 

 

Thoughts?

 

yes next quarter is already known to be awful (thorsten admitted this) and 2014 is a "transition" year. that is management speak for no better than break even. that's why the stock is down 30% in a week.

[LakesideB]

wellmont .. your points regarding RIM are well understood by the market. The valuation level and trajectory would suggest the same.

 

It is incredible to see the amount of energy and resources you spend explaining your thinking of RIM despite Mr. Market agreeing with you.

 

Perhaps such an effort is warranted if you were taking an opposite side to the general consensus? My apologize if this comes across negatively to you  ... especially as it comes from a newbie to the board. But I simply want to understand what the driver of your input in this discussion is? Do you have a massive short on this stock?

[bkirkpatrick]

What was your thesis for buying shares as you seem to mostly identify the faults with Blackberry.  Perhaps you can share what you see as positives?

[Guest wellmont]

What was your thesis for buying shares as you seem to mostly identify the faults with Blackberry.  Perhaps you can share what you see as positives?

 

because I see change. I see their biggest shareholder underwater. I see him wanting to get out of tech. they are closer to change now because it's becoming more obvious the device business is not going to work. it's too soon for me really. but I would probably buy the stock if they got out of the device business. that would cause pressure on the shares initially; but it would begin the process of finding a core business they can monetize. For example bbry has yet to have their "burning platform" moment.

 

by the way lots of longs are openly critical of their companies.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/rxtimes/20130702006089/en/Manhattan-Company-Outlines-Strategic-Plan-Fix-Vivus

[Guest valueInv]

What was your thesis for buying shares as you seem to mostly identify the faults with Blackberry.  Perhaps you can share what you see as positives?

 

because I see change. I see their biggest shareholder underwater. I see him wanting to get out of tech. they are closer to change now because it's becoming more obvious the device business is not going to work. it's too soon for me really. but I would probably buy the stock if they got out of the device business. that would cause pressure on the shares initially; but it would begin the process of finding a core business they can monetize. For example bbry has yet to have their "burning platform" moment.

 

by the way lots of longs are openly critical of their companies.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/rxtimes/20130702006089/en/Manhattan-Company-Outlines-Strategic-Plan-Fix-Vivus

 

What is left if they get out of the handset business?

[Guest wellmont]

cash, (if they don't burn it all) patents, a declining stream of high margin subscription revenue tied to old devices, various enterprise software assets, and some other things that may have some value (qnx, bbm).

[constructive]

wellmont .. your points regarding RIM are well understood by the market. The valuation level and trajectory would suggest the same.

 

It is incredible to see the amount of energy and resources you spend explaining your thinking of RIM despite Mr. Market agreeing with you.

 

Perhaps such an effort is warranted if you were taking an opposite side to the general consensus? My apologize if this comes across negatively to you  ... especially as it comes from a newbie to the board. But I simply want to understand what the driver of your input in this discussion is? Do you have a massive short on this stock?

 

We have 207 pages of people posting about Blackberry. I'm not going to read them all but I assume most of them are positive (especially since it's a Fairfax investment). Wellmont's comments are fairly obvious but that doesn't mean they're not useful in the context of CoBaF enthusiasm.

[LakesideB]

 

We have 207 pages of people posting about Blackberry. I'm not going to read them all but I assume most of them are positive (especially since it's a Fairfax investment). Wellmont's comments are fairly obvious but that doesn't mean they're not useful in the context of CoBaF enthusiasm.

 

I don't disagree with you on the usefulness of the content. Its just the sheer persistence and one track nature of the input that struck me ....

 

I haven't read the full 200+ pages myself but just looking at the first couple of pages it seems that anti-RIM was very much prevalent back then as well.

 

 

[cwericb]

Constructive & LakesideB

 

Over the last 207 pages several posters have questioned “Welmont’s” motives and he has probably posted many more times than you think he has.

 

I think you will find that Wellmont has posted negatively under other names which tends to lessen his credibility. Posts by “Rim Never Sleeps” comes to mind.

 

Negative posts can be just as informative as the positive posts. However, when someone takes the time to post every negative news article and every negative press release, regardless of the reputation of the source, and then post under different names, you do have to wonder about the motives of the poster.

 

So, perhaps...

 

a) Wellmont has a personal grudge against RIM, perhaps an x-employee. As “Rim Never Sleeps” he gave his location as the same area as RIM’s headquarters. Or

b) He is short and wants to spread as much negative information about RIM as possible. Or

c) He is paid by shorts to spread misinformation on as many boards as possible. Or

d) He’s simply convinced that RIM is doomed to failure and wants to make the point.

 

Negative posts are no better or worse than positive posts as long as there is no ulterior motive to misinform.  I don't know what Welmont's motivation is.  Just IMHO

 

[Guest wellmont]

cwericb- Can Blackberry recover from it's terrible week?

 

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/can-blackberry-recover-from-its-terrible-week.html/?ref=YF

[cwericb]

Hi Wellmont,

 

You do yourself a disservice by posting stuff like that because your own ideas and analysis make more sense and are somewhat less ... shall we say ... hysterical.

 

But I actually did take a glance at that article and wonder if you had read the comment that followed...

 

"They reported results that were outstanding year over year, showed increasing sales quarter over quarter and the results were in line with company expectations...the only thing 'terrible' is relentless manufactured BB trashing, give it a rest fellas, they didn't even have a full quarter of q10/5 to report, only an idiot would start reporting the same gloom and doom stories of 2012 under the circumstances."

 

I also note that following the article on Blackberry is an article titled "The Death of the PC".  I think both articles are a bit premature.

 

I don't know what the future holds for Blackberry, but the company is far from dead. There seems to be a lot of animosity towards BBRY simply because they were so very successful and dominant at one time. This is probably due to the fact that they ignored the old adage...  "Be nice to the people you meet on the way up, because you will meet the same people on the way down."

 

So the headlines scream...  BBRY Down 35%!!! 

But how much do you hear about the fact that the stock is up 50% from this past September???

Do you see that as balanced reporting?