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Guest valueInv

nokia makes windows phone the clear #3 ecosystem.

from allthingsd

 

While investors are rightly noting  Nokia's  continued challenges in the entry- level phone space, its Windows Phone business appears to be gaining momentum.

One statistic to put this in perspective is that  Nokia  sold 7.4 million Lumia devices in the second quarter - the highest quarterly total since  Nokia  began making Windows Phones. That figure is also more than the total number of BlackBerry devices sold in its most recently reported quarter (6.8 million BlackBerry devices for the three months ended  June 1 .)

And that includes not only new BlackBerry 10 devices but also those running its older operating systems. Only 2.7 million BlackBerry 10 devices sold during the quarter.

 

And that's not counting Windows devices sold by other vendors.

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Thorsten Heins has talked about BBRY's vision of carrying all the computing power you need in your mobile phone, rather than having multiple devices.  (See Milken Institute speech.) 

 

Some ridiculed Heins' thoughts, but Mark Shuttle agrees with Heins.  And it looks like Canonical is really trying to make this happen:

http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/ubuntu-edge?c=home

 

One wonders if BBRY is working on a similar project and whether it can be successful in the face of a competitor who I think can actually execute on this vision.

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Guest wellmont

they can't even make a tablet that is competitive. and they are losing out in phones. they are now a clear #4 ecosystem and falling. and bbry CEO is out talking about "the future" of computing at conferences when his stock has collapsed because they got today's vision of mobile so wrong. it's too late for bold new products from bbry (they can't execute). they need to sell whatever good they have left inside bbry and try to get something for shareholders.

 

ps: motorola has been experimenting for 3 years with making the phone the primary computing platform for the individual. So goog, with assets like chrome and android, is well aware of this product category and is in a good position to lead if the market ever tilts that way.

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Guest valueInv

they can't even make a tablet right. and they are losing out in phones. they are now a clear #4 ecosystem and falling. and bbry CEO is out talking about "the future" of computing at conferences when his stock has collapsed because they got today's vision of mobile so wrong. it's too late for bold new products from bbry (they can't execute). they need to sell whatever good they have left inside bbry and try to get something for shareholders.

 

Thorstein is not going to write his own death warrant that easily.

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Guest wellmont

ubuntu edge will also run Android. no word yet if they plan to license bb10.

 

from cnet

"And of course, the phone will dock with a desktop monitor, mouse, and keyboard to boot into a desktop environment, while still being able to run either Ubuntu or Android on the phone itself. Users can switch between Android and the native Ubuntu at will, though there's no word on important Android stuff like Google Play Store support. Unfortunately, the description mentions that desktop docking in Ubuntu smartphone will only come after a post-launch update - apparently ten months isn't long enough to get it quite ready. "

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Thorsten Heins has talked about BBRY's vision of carrying all the computing power you need in your mobile phone, rather than having multiple devices.  (See Milken Institute speech.) 

 

Some ridiculed Heins' thoughts, but Mark Shuttle agrees with Heins.  And it looks like Canonical is really trying to make this happen:

http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/ubuntu-edge?c=home

 

One wonders if BBRY is working on a similar project and whether it can be successful in the face of a competitor who I think can actually execute on this vision.

 

Step 1 is to put QNX in a monitor and keyboard so when I am near my desktop I can use them with my phone.

 

Step 2 is to use the phone for my cloud storage and internet connection. The cell phone provider gets to steal the data market share from cable or phone internet as I won't need both. Instead I pay a bit more to the cell phone provider for more data. I can now use any QNX monitor and keyboard so there will be network advantage to the first mover. As a consumer I save the cost of buying and upgrading the desktop and I need one broadband data account instead of 3 (one at home, one at work and one on the phone).

 

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ubuntu edge will also run Android. no word yet if they plan to license bb10.

 

from cnet

"And of course, the phone will dock with a desktop monitor, mouse, and keyboard to boot into a desktop environment, while still being able to run either Ubuntu or Android on the phone itself. Users can switch between Android and the native Ubuntu at will, though there's no word on important Android stuff like Google Play Store support. Unfortunately, the description mentions that desktop docking in Ubuntu smartphone will only come after a post-launch update - apparently ten months isn't long enough to get it quite ready. "

 

There is no point to be made on Canonical licensing BB10 here.  Ubuntu is Linux.  Android/Linux is a direct competitor to BB10/QNX.

 

In the GOOG thread, I asked a question to the devs on the board as to whether they are waiting for Android phones that run Ubuntu.  Didn't really get any responses, but it looks like at least some are willing to crowdfund a high end phone that does this.

 

See more at http://www.ubuntu.com/phone/ubuntu-for-android.

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Guest wellmont

this is very small potatoes in the scheme of things. it does give the warm fuzzies to the open source community, who still do have some visibility and access in tech media. but the fact is Moto has been working on similar products for 3 years and has not got any traction. that was pre goog. I suspect that with android chrome and the work moto has already done, they are well positioned should a market for these products ever develop. I would say that without a tablet product, and minuscule (and falling) market share in phones, that the story bbry can tell to constituents for devices like this is extremely weak.

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Guest valueInv

this is very small potatoes in the scheme of things. it does give the warm fuzzies to the open source community, who still do have some visibility and access in tech media. but the fact is Moto has been working on similar products for 3 years and has not got any traction. that was pre goog. I suspect that with android chrome and the work moto has already done, they are well positioned should a market for these products ever develop. I would say that without a tablet story, and minuscule market share in phones, that the story bbry can tell to constituents for devices like this is extremely weak.

 

But they sure can blow some of their cash horde trying to bring new devices to market.

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Guest wellmont

lets be clear. ex cash and investments, investors are valuing the bbry business at about $1.7b or a bit over $3 a share.

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this is very small potatoes in the scheme of things. it does give the warm fuzzies to the open source community, who still do have some visibility and access in tech media. but the fact is Moto has been working on similar products for 3 years and has not got any traction. that was pre goog. I suspect that with android chrome and the work moto has already done, they are well positioned should a market for these products ever develop. I would say that without a tablet product, and minuscule (and falling) market share in phones, that the story bbry can tell to constituents for devices like this is extremely weak.

 

Well, I wouldn't discount the significance of the Ubuntu Edge announcement simply because you are not a fan of the strategic decisions BBRY is making. 

 

The Edge announcement, IMO, is not about giving "warm and fuzzies" to the open source community.  It actually shows how much disruption can occur to the major OS players' franchises.  While Edge will be a cutting edge device for first adopters, it could be the beginning of a shift in the market where you have Android/Desktop Linux products eating into MSFT and AAPL's market share at an even greater rate going forward.  Thus, commoditization of the OS accelerates even more.

 

I do agree that GOOG/Motorola is best positioned to provide these types of hybrid devices. 

 

Now, whether BBRY can get a piece of that particular pie with QNX is an open question.  But even if they do, the profit model will not be about selling devices/OS'es, but instead about the software and services discussed ad nauseam on this thread (MDM software, security software and services, etc.).

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Guest wellmont

you're talking about markets that are years away at best. and it's pure conjecture that bbry will ever release a product here or whether the market is even viable. This is a $32m investment, which is chicken feed for companies like msft goog and apple. it's petty cash.

 

right now bbry has zero revenue from this product category. and any revenue is at least a year or two away. even then the revenue opportunity will be tiny. investors want to know what bbry is going to do in the next 3 months and the next 6 months to fix a core business that is headed due south. what is the plan to create any value at all when your core business is simply not competitive and not earning a dime? I don't get your fascination with this stuff that seems totally inconsequential to this investment thesis.

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Guest valueInv

this is very small potatoes in the scheme of things. it does give the warm fuzzies to the open source community, who still do have some visibility and access in tech media. but the fact is Moto has been working on similar products for 3 years and has not got any traction. that was pre goog. I suspect that with android chrome and the work moto has already done, they are well positioned should a market for these products ever develop. I would say that without a tablet product, and minuscule (and falling) market share in phones, that the story bbry can tell to constituents for devices like this is extremely weak.

 

Well, I wouldn't discount the significance of the Ubuntu Edge announcement simply because you are not a fan of the strategic decisions BBRY is making. 

 

The Edge announcement, IMO, is not about giving "warm and fuzzies" to the open source community.  It actually shows how much disruption can occur to the major OS players' franchises.  While Edge will be a cutting edge device for first adopters, it could be the beginning of a shift in the market where you have Android/Desktop Linux products eating into MSFT and AAPL's market share at an even greater rate going forward.  Thus, commoditization of the OS accelerates even more.

 

I do agree that GOOG/Motorola is best positioned to provide these types of hybrid devices. 

 

Now, whether BBRY can get a piece of that particular pie with QNX is an open question.  But even if they do, the profit model will not be about selling devices/OS'es, but instead about the software and services discussed ad nauseam on this thread (MDM software, security software and services, etc.).

Never mind that Linux has failed to get meaningful marketshare in the desktop space despite offering a "commoditized" OS for free for 15 years.

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you're talking about markets that are years away at best. and it's pure conjecture that bbry will ever release a product here or whether the market is even viable. This is a $32m investment, which is chicken feed for companies like msft goog and apple. it's petty cash.

 

right now bbry has zero revenue from this product category. and any revenue is at least a year or two away. even then the revenue opportunity will be tiny. investors want to know what bbry is going to do in the next 3 months and the next 6 months to fix a core business that is headed due south. what is the plan to create any value at all when your core business is simply not competitive and not earning a dime? I don't get your fascination with this stuff that is totally inconsequential to this investment thesis.

 

I disagree with you that this stuff is "inconsequential" to the BBRY investment thesis. 

 

My thesis for BBRY is that the assets that BBRY has are valuable, that fixation on what you call the "core business" (mobile device sales) is obscuring the value of those assets, and that as a result, BBRY is trading at levels that is the equivalent of a "better dead than alive" scenario.  BBRY's assets are valuable because they can be monetized through a software and services business model that takes into account the commoditization of the OS and that does not rely on device sales for profit. 

 

However, key to the "low risk, potential high return upside" thesis is that BBRY management won't fritter away this value, and that any investments they make will help to maximize the value of their assets.  Because we're talking about the tech sector, management's strategic vision is very important, both for assessing the investment's downside risk and upside potential. 

 

So, given this POV on BBRY, Canonical's Edge announcement becomes relevant for two reasons: 

 

1.  It demonstrates that BBRY management is thinking forward in a way that they weren't before.  Blackberry missed the boat in the past -- everybody and their mom understands this.  But now, BBRY management's heads are in the game, IMO, and they have a vision of the future that is on par with people like Mark Shuttlesworth, who I highly respect.  This is good because BBRY has limited resources, and they have to focus their R&D so that they are increasing the value of their assets.  Moreover, they have to be careful not to go down strategic paths that will be value destroying -- for example, by selling Windows devices, as some have suggested BBRY do, or by focusing too much on device sales instead of their software and services offerings.

 

2.  It indicates that current device sale market share might not be indicative of the medium to long term business prospects for the OS providers.  Because if this "chicken feed" investment results in a viable proof of concept/template, it threatens to upend the OS markets even further than they have already been upended.  The number of traditional computing devices (desktop/laptop, tablet, and phone) per person could actually drop in the medium to long term.  And the most widepsread OS's could be the commodity OS's (Android, other Linux derivatives, ChromeOS, etc.), which will really disrupt the device sale/OS license biz model.  Bottom line: this development underscores the importance of BBRY's focusing on a software and services biz model going forward, as opposed to deriving profits from device/embedded OS sales. 

 

So that's why I thought it made sense to post about it.  In fact, this development should be of interest to anyone who is invested in BBRY, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, Samsung, INTC, and a slew of other companies. 

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Thorsten Heins has talked about BBRY's vision of carrying all the computing power you need in your mobile phone, rather than having multiple devices.  (See Milken Institute speech.) 

 

Some ridiculed Heins' thoughts, but Mark Shuttle agrees with Heins.  And it looks like Canonical is really trying to make this happen:

http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/ubuntu-edge?c=home

 

One wonders if BBRY is working on a similar project and whether it can be successful in the face of a competitor who I think can actually execute on this vision.

 

Step 1 is to put QNX in a monitor and keyboard so when I am near my desktop I can use them with my phone.

 

Step 2 is to use the phone for my cloud storage and internet connection. The cell phone provider gets to steal the data market share from cable or phone internet as I won't need both. Instead I pay a bit more to the cell phone provider for more data. I can now use any QNX monitor and keyboard so there will be network advantage to the first mover. As a consumer I save the cost of buying and upgrading the desktop and I need one broadband data account instead of 3 (one at home, one at work and one on the phone).

 

Your point about data service providers is a very interesting one.  It could very well be that the wireless providers (at least in NA) are the best positioned companies to provide the last mile broadband service of choice to consumers.

 

Carrying around all the local computing power you need in your phone could solidify that position. 

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Guest wellmont

msft demonstrated this "advanced" technology that ubuntu is working on, over 5 years ago. I saw the demo. Moto released these products 3 years ago. They went no where. They were a dud. They were mocked and derided by the media and pundits. And customers ignored them. Now ubuntu is investing $32 million, which is a pittance, in a similar scheme. And suddenly this is an important technology for bbry, and it's competitors? It isn't.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if bbry has canceled all projects that are not currently producing any cash for the company. that would include this one. bbry management does not have the luxury to "imagine" products that may or may not be viable in two or three years. This is a pipe dream, manufactured again by the excellent bbry pr department. and with the shares trading barely above cash in the bank, this company can not afford pipe dreams. Management must ground it's business in gritty, messy reality, even as the PR department continues to do it's thing.

 

And I find it curious that at a time when bbry core business is in severe distress, your focus continues to be on an ephemeral set of technologies that may or may not see the light of day in three years, instead of where it really matters. and even if the products do emerge someday, the revenue opportunity will be so inconsequentially small that it will not matter, given the context of the bbry business model as it exists today.

 

bbry has more important concerns. like survival as an independent, sustainable, viable entity. and it is a long way from proving it is that.

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msft demonstrated this "advanced" technology that ubuntu is working on, over 5 years ago. I saw the demo. Moto released these products 3 years ago. They went no where. They were a dud. They were mocked and derided by the media and pundits. And customers ignored them. Now ubuntu is investing $32 million, which is a pittance, in a similar scheme. And suddenly this is an important technology for bbry, and it's competitors? It isn't.

 

Not true.  The products you're referring to aren't the same as what Ubuntu Edge will be.  That's like saying that MSFT's tablet computers back in the day were the same as the iPad.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if bbry has canceled all projects that are not currently producing any cash for the company. that would include this one. bbry management does not have the luxury to "imagine" products that may or may not be viable in two or three years. This is a pipe dream, manufactured again by the excellent bbry pr department. and with the shares trading barely above cash in the bank, this company can not afford pipe dreams. Management must ground it's business in gritty, messy reality, even as the PR department continues to do it's thing.

 

On this point, you may be partially right. 

 

We have no idea what's going on behind the scenes at BBRY right now.  However, characterizing this as a "pipe dream" assumes that BBRY is actually spending money on developing such a product, which sort of contradicts what you said about them cancelling projects.

 

My less negative view on Heins' describing their vision of computing is more focused on whether management is in the right frame of mind to maximize BBRY's assets.  Remember, they are not going to bring out the Playbook in this market.  Given their view of how computing is going and their current position in the market, which has been completely ceded to Apple and the Android manufacturers, this makes a lot of sense.  (I agree with their strategic decision not to expend resources on the Playbook, and to focus instead on phones.)

 

And I find it curious that at a time when bbry core business is in severe distress, your focus continues to be on an ephemeral set of technologies that may or may not see the light of day in three years, instead of where it really matters. and even if the products do emerge someday, the revenue opportunity will be so inconsequentially small that it will not matter, given the context of the bbry business model as it exists today.

 

You are wrong to say that I'm focusing on this "ephemeral set of technologies."  As I thought I made clear in my previous post, I'm focused on BBRY maximizing the value of the assets they control.

 

And I believe that they really need to focus on software and services, which will be distributed in conjunction with BBRY's QNX-based products, but should also work with other vendors' products.  This is separate and apart from these future technologies you are dismissing.

 

Again, the reason I posted about the Ubuntu Edge announcement is because that announcement indicates that BBRY's management has their head in the game and will not drop the ball by failing to understand where things could be going.  Moreover, their strategic vision will affect the way they spend their money.  It's part of the reason why BBRY is not bringing out a Playbook.

 

bbry has more important concerns. like survival as an independent, sustainable, viable entity. and it is a long way from proving it is that.

 

BBRY is very, very focused on surviving as an independent, sustainable and viable entity.  This is the point I've been trying to make.  They're making decisions right now as though they will try to survive as an independent company for the foreseeable future, which requires having some vision of where mobile computing is going. 

 

I like that because it will help to maximize the value of their assets over the medium to long term. 

 

On the other hand, you seem to believe that they should put themselves up for sale and be done with it.  I disagree.  It's like SD redux, only without the exorbitant comp.

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Guest wellmont

the ubntu edge is dream. right now, they are trying to get donations to even get started on it. it's little more than a website with some product conceptions on it. The money they are trying to raise amounts to coins found in the couches in Apple's corporate cafeteria. It got one day of publicity and now it's over. If the product category makes any sense at all, goog, apple, samsung, and msft will spend some money and make it. they won't need to ask for donations to make it.

 

You keep talking about assets. assets produce cash. what cash are these assets producing? the only free cash flow bbry is producing is from legacy subscriptions that are falling off. that's an asset. but it's a legacy asset and not an asset that is going to produce new revenue and new cash. these assets you speak of are not in sight. they are really an imagination.

 

bbry has done nothing (but talk) to indicate they can produce any new product that will sell in the marketplace and produce cash for shareholders. this product, if they can even make it, is years away from commercialization. And even you have to admit that they are not as well positioned as others are to make it work. You admit that goog, a much bigger much better financed competitor is in the best position to make it work, that is if a market for them ever even develops. I will grant you that Ubuntu, which essentially only has a series of videos, pdf, and power points on it's site, and has not even raised the money to make it, seems further along here than bbry.

 

bbry has put every ounce of their energy into making new phones. those phones have proven to be flops. and that's why the stock is nearing it's cycle lows again. I seriously doubt the answer now is to "double down" and try to develop more products that have even less of a chance of commercialization than their phones do. bbry is down to about 2% market share in their core business, which is losing money. the best asset this company has is cash, and that must be conserved so that shareholders come away with something. this company is for sale. the only question is how are they going to do it. all it once? or slow liquidation.

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bbry has put every ounce of the energy into making new phones. those phones have proven to be flops.

 

It's a little early for that type of statement, we've only seen one quarter of Q10 results and the Q5 isn't even out yet. You may be able to draw your own conclusions about the Z10, but I wouldn't go as far as saying all current and future phones are already flops.

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Guest valueInv

bbry has put every ounce of the energy into making new phones. those phones have proven to be flops.

 

It's a little early for that type of statement, we've only seen one quarter of Q10 results and the Q5 isn't even out yet. You may be able to draw your own conclusions about the Z10, but I wouldn't go as far as saying all current and future phones are already flops.

 

What you have seen is the opening weekend at the box office. And it doesn't look good. The years of delay probably created pent up demand which was about 2.7 M. Going forward , that effect is gone.

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you keep talking about assets. assets produce cash. what cash are these assets producing? the only cash bbry is producing is from legacy subscriptions that are falling off. that's an asset. but it's a legacy asset and not an asset that is going to produce new revenue and new cash. these assets you speak of are not in sight. they are really an imagination.

 

bbry has done nothing (but talk) to indicate they can produce any new product that will sell in the marketplace and produce cash for shareholders. this product, if they can even make it, is years away from commercialization. And even you have to admit that they are not as well positioned as others are to make it work. You admit that goog, a much bigger much better financed competitor is in the best position to make it work, that is if a market for them ever even develops.

 

bbry has put every ounce of the energy into making new phones. those phones have proven to be flops. and that's why the stock is nearing it's cycle lows again. I seriously doubt the answer now is to "double down" and try to develop more products that have even less of a chance of commercialization than their phones do. bbry is down to about 2% market share in their core business, which is losing money. the best asset this company has is cash, and that must be conserved so that shareholders come away with something. this company is for sale. the only question his how are they going to do it. all it once? or slow liquidation.

 

You continue to fixate on BBRY's views on the future technology you described as "ephemeral."  (Probably because it fits your narrative that management at BBRY is all talk.)

 

But that's not where BBRY is focused.  BBRY is focused on the software and services biz.  That's why they announced a new BES and Secure Workspace, BBM on iOS and Android, new QNX partnerships and QNX-based platforms (e.g., QNX Car 2 and HTML5 SDKs, BB10), etc.  You have to give them some time to develop their mobile computing platform, shift business models, and start to generate new software and service revenue.

 

Ultimately, it's about being patient and giving the company time to turn the company around.  You seem to have the mentality of a corporate raider who will enter at attractive prices and then push for sale ASAP in order to make a quick buck.

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bbry has put every ounce of the energy into making new phones. those phones have proven to be flops.

 

It's a little early for that type of statement, we've only seen one quarter of Q10 results and the Q5 isn't even out yet. You may be able to draw your own conclusions about the Z10, but I wouldn't go as far as saying all current and future phones are already flops.

 

Actually, the quarter only included results from the Z10.  The Z10 was a flop.

 

The Q10 results are not out yet and that is the BBRY phone that actually matters.  No true Blackberry user was going to buy the Z10 with no physical keyboard.

 

Wellmont, you cant say both phones were a flop if we havent even seen any results from the Q10 yet!  I agree the Z10 was a flop.

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BlackBerry Fires 250 Canadian Workers as Part of Turnaround Plan

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-25/blackberry-fires-250-canadian-workers-as-part-of-turnaround-plan.html

 

BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY), maker of the Z10 and Q10 smartphones, informed 250 workers in a Waterloo, Ontario, product-testing facility that they would be fired.

 

The dismissals are part of BlackBerry’s turnaround plan to improve profits, Lisette Kwong, a company spokeswoman, said today in an e-mail. The department affected by the job cuts supports manufacturing, research and development, she said. BlackBerry has about 12,700 employees.

 

 

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