BB - BlackBerry

[Guest wellmont]

Boisterous Blackberry Bull becomes less bullish. So much for the theory that the keyboard version of the phone was going to save bb10.

 

Just last month, BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY) reportedly cut production of its Z10 and Q10 smartphones from a monthly total of 2 million to 1 million after sales in the previous quarter came in short of expectations. Analyst Peter Misek at Jefferies now says that company is slicing at least another 10% from its manufacturing total. BlackBerry launched a lower-priced version of its keyboard smartphone, the Q5, last week in Canada. A report in the Globe and Mail quotes Misek: After the Wednesday, Aug. 14 launch of the Q5 in Canada, we contacted dozens of Canada carrier stores (Telus and Bell) and also Future Shop (similar to a Best Buy). Our survey indicates very modest demand across the three different stores and different cities. Most stores indicated that it was a soft launch, and not a big event like the launch of the Z10 and the Q10. Most stores did not receive a large amount and some had not sold any.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-production-cut-blackberry-160002747.html

[fareastwarriors]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-21/blackberry-headed-for-breakup-amid-phones-woes.html

 

 

BlackBerry’s Money-Losing Hardware Unit May Force Breakup

[Guest valueInv]

The clock starts ticking really fast now. CIOs, app developers and operators are going to hold investments in the BB10 platform until the cloud clears. This means even lower sales.

 

Aaaaannnnnddd here we go:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-21/blackberry-headed-for-breakup-amid-phones-woes.html

[Guest valueInv]

Remember this little nugget?

 

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57576750-94/blackberry-bb10-is-stealing-customers-away-from-rivals/

 

How do they get away with this?

 

They forgot to mention this:

 

http://gigaom.com/2013/08/21/nearly-one-third-of-the-apps-in-blackberry-world-come-from-the-same-developer/

[Guest wellmont]

this article focuses on the large Bbry investor.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuilder/2013/08/22/prem-watsas-blackberry-nightmare-what-can-we-learn/

[fareastwarriors]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/23/business/economy/how-blackberry-handled-prosperity-past.html?ref=business

 

How BlackBerry Handled Past Wealth

[fareastwarriors]

BlackBerry may be spinning off messenger service

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100991041

[TwoCitiesCapital]

BlackBerry may be spinning off messenger service

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100991041

 

I don't think this will matter much, but am looking forward to a future where they might consider spinning off the enterprise MDM business and separate something profitable, and valuable, from the tarnished handset business.

 

Also, I've been running through some anecdotal evidence - maybe you guys can tell me if I'm reading too much into these numbers.

 

As can be seen from the above chart from StatCounter - BBRY's global web presence has jumped 26% since it bottomed prior to the release of the Z10. I've pulled some of the following numbers. Unfortunately, this isn't a count of unique users with the BB operating system. It's a count of the number of BB devices that access websites that have StatCounter trackers on them. Any spike in activity could be the result of new users OR increased web usage (due to bigger screens). Let's look at the numbers:

 

In Q4 of 2012 they sold 1M BB10 devices and “lost” 3M subscribers.

In Q1 they sold 2.7M BB10 and lost 4M subscribers.

Total between the two – 3.7M new BB10 phones and 7M subscribers lost.

 

Many new BB10 users aren’t counted as a subscribers anymore. The CEO said about half of the new BB10 sales (3.7M) were to new customers coming from other platforms (at least initial Z10 sales) – let’s say it’s about 1.7M new customers and 2M old BB users who upgraded who are no longer counted as subscribers. That means of the 7M, only 5M actually defected and left BBRY in the past two quarters. The new 3.7M BB10 phones were able to completely counteract the loss of 5M customers AND increase the global web presence of all their subscribers (~73.5M) by 10% by end of Q1.

 

For 3.7M phones to increase the global activity of 73.5M by 10% at the end of Q1  AND counteract the loss of 5M means that those 3.7M phones are doing the works of some 12.4M.That means that each BB10 user produces about 3.4x as much web activity as their old subscribers. That means this ratio can continue flat if they gain 2 BB10 subscribers for every 7 old BB subscribers that leave.

 

So – assuming that another 2.5 M subscribers are real losses this quarter would mean that we have a total of 7.5M subscribers actually lost over 3 quarters. How many BB10s need to be in existence to counteract this 7.5M loss and result in a 25% gain from the starting base?

 

This is essentially asking how many BB10s would need to be sold result in the equivalent increase in web presenece of 25.8M old BB users. This 25.8M comes from having to recover ground from the 7.5M that we're assuming are gone plus the 25% gain in our estimated starting base (~73.5M). If the ratio of 3.4x remains the same as it was Q4-Q1, that would mean there would need to be 7.5M BB10 phones in circulation right now (25.8M/3.4M) – subtract out the 3.7M that we know were sold in Q4-Q1 and then we have new sales in the quarter of 3.8M phones so far – much better than last quarter.

 

Clearly this relies on several assumptions - 2.5M real subscriber loss in the current quarter, the 3.4x web presence ratio being maintained, and the breakdown of near 50/50 new users and old BB10 users picking up BB being maintained.

 

Losing fewer subscribers would be a plus for the service business, but it would also mean they sold fewer BB10s (2 less BB10s for every 7 under 2.5M their subscriber attrition comes in at. A loss of more subscribers would would mean they sold more BB10 phones to achieve these metrics. You could also assume that users in the 2Q used their mobile browser so much that it raised the average of all users for the entire period to 4x that of an old BB user. That would still give us 2.8M phones sold this quarter.

 

I know these are soft numbers and require some assumptions. Just trying to get a picture of how BB can be losing millions of users and not selling any BB10 phones while still increasing their global web presence. BB must be selling some phones OR retaining subscribers OR some combination of both to see it's global web presence spike by 26% since the release of the Z10. Given the spikes coincide with the releases of the new products in major markets - it seems like these numbers are somewhat reliable. This to me would suggest that things aren't as dour as some are thinking, no?

[Guest valueInv]

BlackBerry may be spinning off messenger service

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100991041

 

I don't think this will matter much, but am looking forward to a future where they might consider spinning off the enterprise MDM business and separate something profitable, and valuable, from the tarnished handset business.

 

Also, I've been running through some anecdotal evidence - maybe you guys can tell me if I'm reading too much into these numbers.

 

As can be seen from the above chart from StatCounter - BBRY's global web presence has jumped 26% since it bottomed prior to the release of the Z10. I've pulled some of the following numbers. Unfortunately, this isn't a count of unique users with the BB operating system. It's a count of the number of BB devices that access websites that have StatCounter trackers on them. Any spike in activity could be the result of new users OR increased web usage (due to bigger screens). Let's look at the numbers:

 

In Q4 of 2012 they sold 1M BB10 devices and “lost” 3M subscribers.

In Q1 they sold 2.7M BB10 and lost 4M subscribers.

Total between the two – 3.7M new BB10 phones and 7M subscribers lost.

 

Many new BB10 users aren’t counted as a subscribers anymore. The CEO said about half of the new BB10 sales (3.7M) were to new customers coming from other platforms (at least initial Z10 sales) – let’s say it’s about 1.7M new customers and 2M old BB users who upgraded who are no longer counted as subscribers. That means of the 7M, only 5M actually defected and left BBRY in the past two quarters. The new 3.7M BB10 phones were able to completely counteract the loss of 5M customers AND increase the global web presence of all their subscribers (~73.5M) by 10% by end of Q1.

 

For 3.7M phones to increase the global activity of 73.5M by 10% at the end of Q1  AND counteract the loss of 5M means that those 3.7M phones are doing the works of some 12.4M.That means that each BB10 user produces about 3.4x as much web activity as their old subscribers. That means this ratio can continue flat if they gain 2 BB10 subscribers for every 7 old BB subscribers that leave.

 

So – assuming that another 2.5 M subscribers are real losses this quarter would mean that we have a total of 7.5M subscribers actually lost over 3 quarters. How many BB10s need to be in existence to counteract this 7.5M loss and result in a 25% gain from the starting base?

 

This is essentially asking how many BB10s would need to be sold result in the equivalent increase in web presenece of 25.8M old BB users. This 25.8M comes from having to recover ground from the 7.5M that we're assuming are gone plus the 25% gain in our estimated starting base (~73.5M). If the ratio of 3.4x remains the same as it was Q4-Q1, that would mean there would need to be 7.5M BB10 phones in circulation right now (25.8M/3.4M) – subtract out the 3.7M that we know were sold in Q4-Q1 and then we have new sales in the quarter of 3.8M phones so far – much better than last quarter.

 

Clearly this relies on several assumptions - 2.5M real subscriber loss in the current quarter, the 3.4x web presence ratio being maintained, and the breakdown of near 50/50 new users and old BB10 users picking up BB being maintained.

 

Losing fewer subscribers would be a plus for the service business, but it would also mean they sold fewer BB10s (2 less BB10s for every 7 under 2.5M their subscriber attrition comes in at. A loss of more subscribers would would mean they sold more BB10 phones to achieve these metrics. You could also assume that users in the 2Q used their mobile browser so much that it raised the average of all users for the entire period to 4x that of an old BB user. That would still give us 2.8M phones sold this quarter.

 

I know these are soft numbers and require some assumptions. Just trying to get a picture of how BB can be losing millions of users and not selling any BB10 phones while still increasing their global web presence. BB must be selling some phones OR retaining subscribers OR some combination of both to see it's global web presence spike by 26% since the release of the Z10. Given the spikes coincide with the releases of the new products in major markets - it seems like these numbers are somewhat reliable. This to me would suggest that things aren't as dour as some are thinking, no?

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1519882-the-latest-statcounter-data-suggest-blackberry-will-beat-on-the-quarter

[Guest wellmont]

"As can be seen from the above chart from StatCounter"

 

what chart from StatCounter?

 

I would get away from concepts like "global web presence" from pulse takers like StatCounter. And I would focus in on what is actually happening: global handset share is less than 2% and falling. bb10 has not attracted developers. Nokia and wp8 has supplanted bbry as the third ecosystem. Company is for sale. PW resigns from board of directors. the biggest wall street bull on bbry has taken down all his numbers. analysts from bull to bear are valuing bbry on sum of the parts and ascribing little to negative value for the handset business.

 

bb10 has lost. management had a plan. the plan was to try to establish bb10 in the marketplace. they didn't. now the plan is to salvage whatever value is left as soon as possible. Management will eventually be replaced. A massive reorg must be done. The time for evaluating the precise bb10 "web presence" is long gone imo.

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

"As can be seen from the above chart from StatCounter"

 

what chart from StatCounter?

 

I would get away from concepts like "global web presence" from pulse takers like StatCounter. And I would focus in on what is actually happening: global handset share is less than 2% and falling. bb10 has not attracted developers. Nokia and wp8 has supplanted bbry as the third ecosystem. Company is for sale. PW resigns from board of directors. the biggest wall street bull on bbry has taken down all his numbers. analysts from bull to bear are valuing bbry on sum of the parts and ascribing little to negative value for the handset business.

 

bb10 has lost. management had a plan. the plan was to try to establish bb10 in the marketplace. they didn't. now the plan is to salvage whatever value is left as soon as possible. Management will eventually be replaced. A massive reorg must be done. The time for evaluating the precise bb10 "web presence" is long gone imo.

 

Sorry. Dunno why my chart isn't coming through. It shows up when I preview the post but not in the actual post. All the data can be downloaded from stat counter and recharted in excel. Prior to the release of The Z10, BBRY Mobile OS stood at 3.1% of global representation based on StaCounter's figures. It spiked to 3.4% at end of Q4 and is currently at 3.9% with a steep upward trend.

 

My point is BBRY hasn't been a consumer device for awhile. It's been a corporate device. Corporations have been their bread and butter. Corporations are also not early adopters because they have to test the phones first. Corporate users also don't need thousands of apps (and many don't want them from what I've seen) - just a handful for entertainment and the rest for productivity. I noticed that counter figures have been showing a relatively steady rise in Blackberry's mobile OS representation on a global scale. It's 26% higher now than it was prior to the release of BB10. That doesn't add up if they are hemorrhaging customers unless if new users are using their BBs for web browsing a lot more than old users - to the point where they are making up for the millions who have left AND increasing the web presence of the original base by 26%.

 

This would make sense as larger screens are conducive to web browsing. So I used known figures from Q4 to solve for that ratio above. New BB10 users used their phones for 3.4x the web browsing as old BB users. If you keep that ratio relatively constant, along with the pace of atrophy in their users, you get a figure of new BB10 sales at somewhere between 2.9-3.8M for this most recent quarter. That hardly sounds like a failure though it's also not a wild success. Selling 3-4M phones a quarter largely before your bread and butter clients step in isn't so bad is it? Especially when they have the new phone launch this Fall with the A10. Obviously the hardware business has a long way to go - but it's surely worth more than 0 and StatCounter figures seem to be pointing to flat to increasing sales and not declining sales.

 

 

[Guest wellmont]

these days corporations are letting employees bring their own phone to work. nobody wants to have two phones, one for work and one for everything else. bbry is losing share in corporations and it's just getting started. I don't believe bbry will survive as a device company. I think their software and services technology will live on somewhere. again "web presence" means about as much as "eye balls" from a shareholder perspective.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

these days corporations are letting employees bring their own phone to work. nobody wants to have two phones, one for work and one for everything else. bbry is losing share in corporations and it's just getting started. I don't believe bbry will survive as a device company. I think their software and services technology will live on somewhere. again "web presence" means about as much as "eye balls" from a shareholder perspective.

 

Yes yes yes. I know. BYOD movement, blackberry is dying, they are non competitive, they dont have apps, QNX isnt going anywhere, they cant sell phones, blah blah blah. I get it. You bears are broken records just like the bulls.

 

You have made a habit of demanding that people post facts and numbers instead of opinions. I saw numbers that made me scratch my head. How does a company that is hemorhagging subscribers increase its global OS count by 26% over that same time? I ran figures, found out new BB10 users are using their phones more, extrapolated the trend and found that BB has the potential to beat sales estimates this quarter based on those calls. I presented my analysis. I want someone to tell me where the flaw is in the argument - tear down my assumptions - break my calculations - or at least provide another perspective on the analysis.

 

If I wanted to hear your condescending opinions about how bad they were I'd just go to through the last 200 pages of this thread. I've got numbers that you demanded. Now I want intelligent discourse on why they are or aren't to be trusted - not your opinions or hyperbole. You says web presence means nothing. Maybe you're right. How do they increase they're web presence by 26%, losing millions of customers, if they aren't selling new phones? If they're selling phones, that does mean something. That's what I'm driving at. Prove it wrong.

[JSArbitrage]

How does a company that is hemorhagging subscribers increase its global OS count by 26% over that same time?

 

This is a very misleading metric.  BBRY market share has been dropping fast but the entire market is growing faster.  So BBRY is getting smaller and smaller slices of a fast growing pie.  It's similar to the dot.com days when dying web browsers would brag they there were getting 50% growth on new users.  The problem was that the total number of internet users was exploding so the reported number masked their dwindling market share.

 

So Web Browser X would get 10% of 100 total users (or 10), then 5% of 300 total users (or 15) and claim 50% user growth (which was true.)  But the problem was in 10 years, they were getting 0.00001% of 1,000,000 users and were essentially dead.

 

Just be careful about how you are thinking about those growth rates.  A company can actually grow into bankruptcy. 

[Guest wellmont]

you're an extremely rude poster so I will make this my last response directly to you. the reason they may be increasing "web presence" is because their old phones were not on the web as much as the new phones. the old phones are being retired and the new phones, which actually have decent browsers, are being bought and put to use browsing. In short, bbry never had much of a web presence before bb10 because their phones really weren't ready for the web.  The new ones are. Lots of bbry customers carried an Iphone as well as a bbry. they liked the bbry messaging app, and used the iphone for apps and web browsing. So there is your answer. So this is why this is probably one of the worst metrics you can use to try to build a bullish case for the handset business.

 

But here is something to consider. Every time a customer with an old bbry phone retires it and buys a bb10 phone, bbry loses a sub. Another thing you may not be factoring in. When bbry says that half of bb10 buyers are coming from another platform, what they aren't saying is that it might just be simply an experiment or trial run. it might be that a guy with an android phone is trying out the much hyped bb10--but keeping his android as his ace in the hole. He may have some overlap where he uses two phones. Many people have more than one line. After trying it out, he may realize that bb10 does not live up to the hype, and goes back to his android phone, which he still has, after returning the bb10.

 

Be careful when management spoon feeds you factoids like that which sound too good to be true. Further, I would not expect that 50% ratio to hold true once the hype is gone. It was a function of the new platform buzz, which has totally worn off.

 

bb10 is still toast. it's just a matter of time. All signs point to a failed handset business. All the facts support that view.

 

The biggest bull on bbry, Jefferies, just came out with a note. I used to call this guy an employee of blackberry. but I guess he has been let go. here is what he wrote. (It looks like your estimate is  70% higher (1.4m units) than the biggest bbry bull's estimate for bb10 (2m), which he just cut after doing channel checks.)

 

"Weak Aug Q sell-through. We believe the build plan cut indicates sell-through is tracking well below St’s $3.1B revenue estimate. Our Canada store checks indicate the Q5 launch is off to a slow start and Q10 prices have started to get cut. We trim our handset shipment est from 5.5M to 5.0M (BB10 from 2.5M to 2.0M) and our rev est from $2.6B to $2.3B as high-end handset demand is weak.

 

Enterprise BB10 refresh should start in Sep but could be pushed out. We think there is pent up enterprise demand for BB10 handsets with the main attraction being an improved web browsing experience. We expect a pick-up in H2 following summer corporate trials of the simplified BES10.1, the BYOD MDM solution, and the Q10/Q5, but we note that the LBO/acquisition headlines will cause enterprises to delay purchases until they have greater clarity on BBRY’s future as a company.

 

MDM opportunity still attractive but increasingly difficult to get there. The same factors that will likely delay the BB10 enterprise refresh likely will elongate the sales cycle for BBRY’s MDM solution and lead to BBRY ceding share to competitors."

[Guest valueInv]

these days corporations are letting employees bring their own phone to work. nobody wants to have two phones, one for work and one for everything else. bbry is losing share in corporations and it's just getting started. I don't believe bbry will survive as a device company. I think their software and services technology will live on somewhere. again "web presence" means about as much as "eye balls" from a shareholder perspective.

 

Yes yes yes. I know. BYOD movement, blackberry is dying, they are non competitive, they dont have apps, QNX isnt going anywhere, they cant sell phones, blah blah blah. I get it. You bears are broken records just like the bulls.

 

You have made a habit of demanding that people post facts and numbers instead of opinions. I saw numbers that made me scratch my head. How does a company that is hemorhagging subscribers increase its global OS count by 26% over that same time? I ran figures, found out new BB10 users are using their phones more, extrapolated the trend and found that BB has the potential to beat sales estimates this quarter based on those calls. I presented my analysis. I want someone to tell me where the flaw is in the argument - tear down my assumptions - break my calculations - or at least provide another perspective on the analysis.

 

If I wanted to hear your condescending opinions about how bad they were I'd just go to through the last 200 pages of this thread. I've got numbers that you demanded. Now I want intelligent discourse on why they are or aren't to be trusted - not your opinions or hyperbole. You says web presence means nothing. Maybe you're right. How do they increase they're web presence by 26%, losing millions of customers, if they aren't selling new phones? If they're selling phones, that does mean something. That's what I'm driving at. Prove it wrong.

Here's a start:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324324404579041190813417918.html

[Guest wellmont]

this will give you lots of "global web presence".

 

BlackBerry has started offering employees the chance to buy up to 10 Z10s, contract-free, for less than $100 each, according to a person familiar with the matter.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

How does a company that is hemorhagging subscribers increase its global OS count by 26% over that same time?

 

This is a very misleading metric.  BBRY market share has been dropping fast but the entire market is growing faster.  So BBRY is getting smaller and smaller slices of a fast growing pie.  It's similar to the days when dying web browsers would brag they there were getting 50% growth on new users.  The problem was that the total number of internet users was exploding so the reported number masked their dwindling market share.

 

So Web Browser X would get 10% of 100 total users (or 10), then 5% of 300 total users (or 15) and claim 50% user growth (which was true.)  But the problem was in 10 years, they were getting 0.00001% of 1,000,000 users and were essentially dead.

 

Just be careful about how you are thinking about those growth rates.  A company can actually grow into bankruptcy.

 

Thank you. This is exactly the kind of response I'm looking for.  Now, given that Blackberry customers have been in the enterprise niche for awhile, do the same rules apply as do for consumer phones.  I know having a built out app market is important for most consumers,  but many of my coworkers and friends who work as professionals here in NYC don't care about apps and just want a phone as a tool that can increase productivity. Many reviews on BB10 products from owners mention the lack of apps but then write it off ad a non-issue. Is there reason to believe that the BBRY phones couldn't exist,  and be profitable,  for this segment of users even as a small niche in a fast growing industry? What if they licensed out the OS to a few other hardware manufacturers so business people could have some choice?  These are the ideas I'm trying to explore. 

you're an extremely rude poster so I will make this my last response directly to you. the reason they may be increasing "web presence" is because their old phones were not on the web as much as the new phones. the old phones are being retired and the new phones, which actually have decent browsers, are being bought and put to use browsing. In short, bbry never had much of a web presence before bb10 because their phones really weren't ready for the web.  The new ones are. Lots of bbry customers carried an Iphone as well as a bbry. they liked the bbry messaging app, and used the iphone for apps and web browsing. So there is your answer. So this is why this is probably one of the worst metrics you can use to try to build a bullish case for the handset business.

 

But here is something to consider. Every time a customer with an old bbry phone retires it and buys a bb10 phone, bbry loses a sub. Another thing you may not be factoring in. When bbry says that half of bb10 buyers are coming from another platform, what they aren't saying is that it might just be simply an experiment or trial run. it might be that a guy with an android phone is trying out the much hyped bb10--but keeping his android as his ace in the hole. He may have some overlap where he uses two phones. Many people have more than one line. After trying it out, he may realize that bb10 does not live up to the hype, and goes back to his android phone, which he still has, after returning the bb10.

 

Be careful when management spoon feeds you factoids like that which sound too good to be true. Further, I would not expect that 50% ratio to hold true once the hype is gone. It was a function of the new platform buzz, which has totally worn off.

 

bb10 is still toast. it's just a matter of time. All signs point to a failed handset business. All the facts support that view.

 

The biggest bull on bbry, Jefferies, just came out with a note. I used to call this guy an employee of blackberry. but I guess he has been let go. here is what he wrote. (It looks like your estimate is  70% higher (1.4m units) than the biggest bbry bull's estimate for bb10 (2m), which he just cut after doing channel checks.)

 

"Weak Aug Q sell-through. We believe the build plan cut indicates sell-through is tracking well below St’s $3.1B revenue estimate. Our Canada store checks indicate the Q5 launch is off to a slow start and Q10 prices have started to get cut. We trim our handset shipment est from 5.5M to 5.0M (BB10 from 2.5M to 2.0M) and our rev est from $2.6B to $2.3B as high-end handset demand is weak.

 

Enterprise BB10 refresh should start in Sep but could be pushed out. We think there is pent up enterprise demand for BB10 handsets with the main attraction being an improved web browsing experience. We expect a pick-up in H2 following summer corporate trials of the simplified BES10.1, the BYOD MDM solution, and the Q10/Q5, but we note that the LBO/acquisition headlines will cause enterprises to delay purchases until they have greater clarity on BBRY’s future as a company.

 

MDM opportunity still attractive but increasingly difficult to get there. The same factors that will likely delay the BB10 enterprise refresh likely will elongate the sales cycle for BBRY’s MDM solution and lead to BBRY ceding share to competitors."

Rude? Sounds like the pot calling the kettle black. I believe I've shown you more respect than you have shown othera in many of your posts and then challenged you to do the same thing that you criticize others for not doing. I'm sorry if calling you out is making you uncomfortable but it finally elicited a post containing useful information. I'd do it again if it brings all of your posts up to such quality instead of participating in and instigating flame wars.

these days corporations are letting employees bring their own phone to work. nobody wants to have two phones, one for work and one for everything else. bbry is losing share in corporations and it's just getting started. I don't believe bbry will survive as a device company. I think their software and services technology will live on somewhere. again "web presence" means about as much as "eye balls" from a shareholder perspective.

 

Yes yes yes. I know. BYOD movement, blackberry is dying, they are non competitive, they dont have apps, QNX isnt going anywhere, they cant sell phones, blah blah blah. I get it. You bears are broken records just like the bulls.

 

You have made a habit of demanding that people post facts and numbers instead of opinions. I saw numbers that made me scratch my head. How does a company that is hemorhagging subscribers increase its global OS count by 26% over that same time? I ran figures, found out new BB10 users are using their phones more, extrapolated the trend and found that BB has the potential to beat sales estimates this quarter based on those calls. I presented my analysis. I want someone to tell me where the flaw is in the argument - tear down my assumptions - break my calculations - or at least provide another perspective on the analysis.

 

If I wanted to hear your condescending opinions about how bad they were I'd just go to through the last 200 pages of this thread. I've got numbers that you demanded. Now I want intelligent discourse on why they are or aren't to be trusted - not your opinions or hyperbole. You says web presence means nothing. Maybe you're right. How do they increase they're web presence by 26%, losing millions of customers, if they aren't selling new phones? If they're selling phones, that does mean something. That's what I'm driving at. Prove it wrong.

Here's a start:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324324404579041190813417918.html

Thanks for this.

[Guest wellmont]

you're dreaming and projecting. I keep my posts On Topic. there is no disrespect of other posters in my contributions (unless faced with a direct assault like the one you made). everyone has a right to defend themselves. If you don't like people stating with conviction, direct, no compromise opinions about investment ideas (like bb10 is going to fail, which I said would happen Before the launch and have not wavered from), then you should take advantage of the ignore feature of this site.

[Aberhound]

BlackBerry has started offering employees the chance to buy up to 10 Z10s, contract-free, for less than $100 each, according to a person familiar with the matter.

 

This is interesting. Presumably the employees will resell them on the secondary market so effectively the company is turning its employees into salesmen? Blackberry can't match Samsung's 15% of sales spending on promotion so this type of management creativity is great. If the phone is so much better in battery life and usability as users like Market-ticker.org claim getting the phone into customers hands is the best promotion strategy.

 

Here is an offer in my city from craigslist which might be an employee with 2 such factory sealed phones for sale:

 

" BNIB unlocked z10 for sale - $360 (Metrotown)

Selling two BNIB z10, sealed. These z10s are factory unlocked, and can be used with any supported carrier."

 

I had to look up what BNIB means: "Brand New In Box".

[TwoCitiesCapital]

you're dreaming and projecting. I keep my posts On Topic. there is no disrespect of other posters in my contributions

and you're delusional and self-aggrandizing. I'm not the only one who thinks that you you've been disrespectful and have seen others post with the same complaints from more than one other user. I largely lurk here because I can't easily post from work, but I've noticed this about you for a while. I just decided to take the time to say something. You're more than welcome to hide my comment in the future is as well because it doesn't look like we're going to get along.

 

BlackBerry has started offering employees the chance to buy up to 10 Z10s, contract-free, for less than $100 each, according to a person familiar with the matter.

 

This is interesting. Presumably the employees will resell them on the secondary market so effectively the company is turning its employees into salesmen? Blackberry can't match Samsung's 15% of sales spending on promotion so this type of management creativity is great. If the phone is so much better in battery life and usability as users like Market-ticker.org claim getting the phone into customers hands is the best promotion strategy.

 

Here is an offer in my city from craigslist which might be an employee with 2 such factory sealed phones for sale:

 

" BNIB unlocked z10 for sale - $360 (Metrotown)

Selling two BNIB z10, sealed. These z10s are factory unlocked, and can be used with any supported carrier."

 

I had to look up what BNIB means: "Brand New In Box".

 

I agree with Wellmont's post that his since been deleted. This is a sign of desperation to get rid of excess inventory. I had a family member who used to work for Sony. They had a massive order cancellation of ToughBook notebooks that typically retailed for $1,100 and had no way to get rid of them. They sold them to their employees and their families' for something like $350 - an enterprising entrepreneur like myself was able to get 2 and resell them for double :)

 

I'm sure enterprising employees at BBRY will do the same but it's an inventory liquidation scheme. They wouldn't be doing it if Z10s were selling otherwise. It's certainly not bullish on sales, but it also doesn't tell us anything new. We knew the Z10 was a flop after this past quarter so old news if you ask me.

[Guest wellmont]

 

and you're delusional and self-aggrandizing. I'm not the only one who thinks that you you've been disrespectful and have seen others post with the same complaints from more than one other user. I largely lurk here because I can't easily post from work, but I've noticed this about you for a while. I just decided to take the time to say something. You're more than welcome to hide my comment in the future is as well because it doesn't look like we're going to get along.

 

You haven't provided an example where I have attacked another poster Ad Hominem. Go through my posts and prove your accusations instead of just throwing it out there like an immature sophomore throwing a tantrum. Back it up like an adult would. I am sure you're going to discover that you simply disagree with what I say and the direct way I say it. And that will be a good exercise for you, because you're going to learn something about yourself and your defensive, emotional prickliness.

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

According to the Wall Street Journal, sales of the Q10 have been dismal.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424127887324324404579041190813417918-lMyQjAxMTAzMDIwODEyNDgyWj.html

 

If sales of the Z10 were poor, then it sounds like Q10 sales have been an unmitigated disaster. Blackberry need to kill BB10 before it ends up taking the whole company down.

[txlaw]

Article from the Verge going through the RIM/BBRY timeline:

http://www.theverge.com/2012/2/21/2789676/rim-blackberry-mike-lazaridis-jim-balsillie-lost-empire

 

It's a pretty good summary of the situation, although I think the analysis of Heins is probably wrong.  I think he's less of an "incrementalist" than they think he is, given all of the developments that have occurred since he took over. 

 

They also completely gloss over QNX and the reasons why Lazaridis set out to buy that company.  Perhaps that is because Lazaridis has never come out and said why he thinks QNX is so great.

[rkbabang]

Article from the Verge going through the RIM/BBRY timeline:

http://www.theverge.com/2012/2/21/2789676/rim-blackberry-mike-lazaridis-jim-balsillie-lost-empire

 

It's a pretty good summary of the situation, although I think the analysis of Heins is probably wrong.  I think he's less of an "incrementalist" than they think he is, given all of the developments that have occurred since he took over. 

 

They also completely gloss over QNX and the reasons why Lazaridis set out to buy that company.  Perhaps that is because Lazaridis has never come out and said why he thinks QNX is so great.

 

" "Turn that off." Interview over. Arguably, Lazaridis had a point, at least about the phrasing of the question. The interviewer wanted to ask about the Indian government's threat to shut down BlackBerry operations in the country unless RIM provided surveillance access to BlackBerry Messenger and email."

 

This goes to my point earlier about open vs. closed source code.  Regardless of how secure a company says its code is, if the company can be strongarmed into installing backdoors for governments it isn't secure.  I'm more of a hardware guy, but I was talking with someone who is an expert on encryption and security issues and he agrees with microkernals being preferable, but thinks the future of microkernels will be something like seL4 where each piece of the OS is formally verified from the kernel on up.  In light of recent events trusting a company to keep its code backdoor free doesn't sound like a good idea.