BB - BlackBerry

[Guest VAL9000]

To get a better handle on the switching question, it probably makes more sense to break the customer into consumer vs. business.

 

Switching for the consumer seems to be very easy.  In the aggregate, there's limited concern for things like security, interoperability, or long-term impact.  In other threads we've had trouble identifying what a real moat looks like for these devices.  BBM has been marginalized with iMessage and Skype.  What else does RIM have going for it by way of a consumer moat?  Data compression?

 

Businesses are a lot trickier to get a handle on.  There's a lot more consideration with respect to security and support.  Device cost isn't a huge issue, but application support and control are.  RIM's moat here is trust.  All it takes is a single enterprise security incident on Android, iPhone, or WP7 to lock RIM up as the default phone provider for years to come.  If that doesn't happen then we might just witness a steady decline in RIM's market share.  WP7's close ties to the rest of the enterprise software landscape (Microsoft) could give it the advantages that it doesn't have in the consumer market.  Android's wide-open model works against it here.  Apple's strategy is hard to evaluate.  So, there's hope for RIM in a world that seems to be suffering from a barrage of cyber attacks.

 

[Uccmal]

I would think with Sony getting hacked, and Honda Canada more recently, that there may be a resurgence in secure compressed data movement.  I realize the types of services are not the same but these instances show the weakness of some systems.  Time will tell.

[Smazz]

 

BBM has been marginalized with iMessage and Skype.  What else does RIM have going for it by way of a consumer moat?  Data compression?

 

FWIW, I still get alot of people asking me if i have a BB because they want to use the bbm to communicate with me. Is this a made in Canada thing? I dont know - they arent asking me about Skype or iMessage (and i know they know or have used Skype anyway).

 

 

 

[CONeal]

With Oprah on board regarding playbook, hopefully she still has that magic touch.  

 

http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/RIMs+(RIMM)+PlayBook+Bashed+in+Britain,+Gets+Love+from+Oprah/6582406.html

[Smazz]

 

http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/RIMs+(RIMM)+PlayBook+Bashed+in+Britain,+Gets+Love+from+Oprah/6582406.html

 

"The ideal place for the PlayBook is the business market as it is a fantastic piece of kit, but it's just not suited to the younger market -

 

Funny, the said the same thing about the BB. And it was directed to the business market yet the younger market picked it up also.

 

 

[Guest valueInv]

Some trouble for the Playbook:

 

http://www.crunchgear.com/2011/06/16/o2-dumps-blackberry-playbook-due-to-customer-experience-issues/

[Smazz]

Some trouble for the Playbook:

 

http://www.crunchgear.com/2011/06/16/o2-dumps-blackberry-playbook-due-to-customer-experience-issues/

I would put more weight in that if they werent going for the Palm instead.

[given2invest]

Man, ugly.  Based on 2q guidance, runrating ~$3.00 in EPS now.  Will have some new products and cost cuts but hard to see where the trough EPS number is. 

[Smazz]

Revenues up from last Q - ill be honest, considering all the "noise" i thought was going to be even worse.

[given2invest]

Revenues up from last Q - ill be honest, considering all the "noise" i thought was going to be even worse.

 

It's pretty horrible.  Revs were a huge miss and Q2 guidance is just awful.

 

Stock down 14% after being cut in half, clearly the market agrees. 

[Smazz]

Revenues up from last Q - ill be honest, considering all the "noise" i thought was going to be even worse.

 

 Revs were a huge miss

Was bad agreed, but i usually dont care what Analysts think too much or "misses" as per them - its just short term stock price they affect.... they are usually trailing indicators anyway.

Im more concerned with what management says/does longer term.

[Smazz]

Revenues up from last Q - ill be honest, considering all the "noise" i thought was going to be even worse.

 

 Revs were a huge miss

Was bad agreed, but i usually dont care what Analysts think too much or "misses" as per them - its just short term stock price they affect.... they are usually trailing indicators anyway.

Im more concerned with what management says/does longer term.

 

I suggest you ignore this management team and prepare to "listen" to a new one. NOT listening to this management team helped me avoid a "growth" stock that looked like it was trading at 7 x earnings.

"Im more concerned with what management says/does" is what i wrote - not listen to them. I dont "listen" like a child

but thanks for the suggestiing. My track record been pretty good - if I sold today, first holding underwater in about 10yrs - I think i'll manage

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

Getting smashed in after hours trading, below $30 now. Looks like the Playbook is flopping, 500k units shipped as opposed to 9 million for the ipad. I think the predictions from a few of us about market consolidation are coming to pass. The market is converging around Android and Apple OS's, with Microsoft taking up the rear. I think people need to realise that you can have the best hardware in the world, but if your phone is supporting a dinosaur OS like Nokia and Blackberry, then you're going to get crushed. HTC are now well ahead of RIM, these guys were smart enough to realise that they didn't have the expertise in developing an OS and focused on making their devices platform agnostic. Also interesting to see that budget handset maker, ZTE are also making inroads, I imagine displacing Nokia, coincidently, ZTE are platform agnostic too!

[Uccmal]

Funny the different read people get on this.

 

I see a company that had 67% growth overseas.

3 Billion cash on the balance sheet

Sold 500000 copies of a brand new product in NA only - just releasing product elsewhere.

 

This hardly looks like a company that is going out of business.

 

I have been around long enough to have seen these guys weather this before, and come out on top.

 

I have also seen Apple virtually out of business, years after Jobs returned, before the Ipod. 

 

I will grant that RIM is having growing pains but it is far from out of business, or obsolete.

 

 

[tombgrt]

I don't have any position in RIMM but am still a little blown away by the market reaction.

Made me think of Buffett.

 

"it is not that we don't understand a technology business or its product. The reason we don't invest is because we can't understand the predictability of the economics ten years hence."

 

[biaggio]

RIM-generally outside what I know-but I see a lot of people carrying Blackberries. My kid says that his friends that are "anti apple products" wouldn t consider an I phone-they mostly use Blackberries.

 

What/where do you guys think RIMM will be like in 10 years? What will that be worth?

 

 

[Smazz]

RIM-generally outside what I know-but I see a lot of people carrying Blackberries. My kid says that his friends that are "anti apple products" wouldn t consider an I phone-they mostly use Blackberries.

 

What/where do you guys think RIMM will be like in 10 years? What will that be worth?

 

 

Generally speaking - with companies like these, I feel if they can just stay in business they usually end up doing quite well - why? Look at Apple, they didnt have alot of infrastructure, Debt, obligations, Re Recoverables etc etc to anchor them 6ft under. Its an interesting situation these types of business. Not an area I like to go into (this is my first "Tech" company - token position to keep me interested while im holding cash) so the answer is maybe "WHO KNOWS?" ;)

[Guest valueInv]

Funny the different read people get on this.

 

I see a company that had 67% growth overseas.

3 Billion cash on the balance sheet

Sold 500000 copies of a brand new product in NA only - just releasing product elsewhere.

 

This hardly looks like a company that is going out of business.

 

I have been around long enough to have seen these guys weather this before, and come out on top.

 

I have also seen Apple virtually out of business, years after Jobs returned, before the Ipod. 

 

I will grant that RIM is having growing pains but it is far from out of business, or obsolete.

 

 

 

If I understand correctly, its 500K copies shipped, not sold i.e. we don't know how many are still in the channel.

[S2S]

Funny the different read people get on this.

 

I see a company that had 67% growth overseas.

 

If one is to believe US sales trends to be a leading indicator, what's with the highest smartphone penetration globally and also the first market to receive most new products, RIM's still robust international growth is under threat.

 

Look at it another way, Nokia printed pretty sales growth and market share figures until very recently...

[Uccmal]

S2S, Why is the US a leading indicator?  Apple products are much more expensive and they are data pigs.  North Americans have cheap data relative to other parts of the world. 

[turar]

Does anyone know where I can get call transcript or mp3? Seeking Alpha stopped publishing them for RIMM.

[S2S]

S2S, Why is the US a leading indicator?  Apple products are much more expensive and they are data pigs.  North Americans have cheap data relative to other parts of the world. 

 

Your observation on Apple used to hold more weight, right until the iPad launch. The $499 price point really turned the table and even caught manufacturing powerhouses like Samsung, HTC by surprise. If you care to look at various comparisons of component costs between the iPhone and competitors, the numbers come out almost identical. Scale is now on Apple's side; multiple years of robust growth and a mountain of cash have yielded certain benefits, you see.

 

Regarding data pricing, let's just say there's but one direction to the long-term trend. And it's not upward.

[Viking]

My challenge with RIM continues to be management. Early on, I did not listen to concerns about management and instead chose to 'believe' what they said. At the end of April when RIM lowered quarterly guidance but held annual guidance ($7.50/share) I decided management likely was out to lunch and sold what shares I held; the math just did not add up. Since then the gambler part of me has been tempted to re-establish a position (its getting cheaper...). What stopped me from buying was my concern about management and today they under-delivered in spades (beating my lowered expectations). The problem investors now have is how can you believe pretty much anything management says... kind of like investing in a company based in China (how do you really know)? They say the year should come in at $5.25 to $6.00... really? In the last 6 weeks guidance came down 30%. Must be some crazy amount of disruption going on in the ecosystem!  ;)

 

The sad part of this whole thing is RIM has some wonderful strengths. At least I think they do. The real problem is the co-CEO's have lost trust and credibility and it is looking like a comedy (soon to be tragedy).

 

I hope this is not a mirror image of the Nokia implosion happening before our eyes.

[biaggio]

RIM-generally outside what I know-but I see a lot of people carrying Blackberries. My kid says that his friends that are "anti apple products" wouldn t consider an I phone-they mostly use Blackberries.

 

What/where do you guys think RIMM will be like in 10 years? What will that be worth?

 

 

 

irrelevant and much lower stock price than it is today.

 

 

I am thinking that it is relevant-  if you cant see RIMM in 10 years existing, or you see it as a very small player-then its best to stay out of it. -(Peter Burke CEO-I think this is your position?)

 

RIMM faces competition from companies with really smart people with lots of money behind them trying to take them down-so there is a chance that RIMM may continue to struggle.-this is what the market is discounting.

 

There is a lot of money to make if you know something the market doesn't in regards to their technology

 

Is there a part of RIMM that will do well in the next 10 years-something that has a enduring competitive advantage, say the secure e mail that will have value?

 

Is all the bad news already in the price?

 

At some point I am sure it will be over sold.

 

I don t own any shares.

 

I am enjoying this thread + am trying to expand my dot of competence.

[Guest misterstockwell]

i have been looking at RIMM

 

if you say nok or rimm. I would buy rimm

 

but if you say rimm or msft, i would buy msft

 

for RIMM I need more of margin of safety, since i can't seem to handicap the risk, so far its in the too hard pile for me. It is temping no doubt.

 

NOK is a far easier choice for me. Win7 gets great reviews in its present iteration, has a huge update coming this fall, and MSFT will put its all into their partnership with Nokia. Nokia knows how to make a great piece of hardware, and they will now have a great piece of software to go with it. RIMM is on its own. As Elop said, it is all about the ecosystem, and RIMM is extinct.