Guest Dazel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ****I POSTED THIS ON APRIL 13/2010.... Altius Minerals-als on the tsx I find it very hard to play in the resource sector. I have spent a great deal of time trying to understand the pricing of mines, resources etc. To me it is has cost me dearly in a few names I could not pull the trigger on (looked at Teck resources at $6, Hudbay at $3, Quadra at $4!!!!) so I do not pretend to be an expert in the field. I still have an extreme liking for cash and liquidity and I hate capex. Obviously to a fault! However, Altius Minerals is run by a 35 year old (Brian Dalton) who to me has created a mining company the way I would. They do not mine. They purchased the land rights of numerous mines back in the late 90's and early 2000's. For those that love "Leucadia" on this board they have done the same thing on a smaller scale. They were also a lot earlier than Leucadia. If lyou ook at what Leucadia did with Inmet in Spain you will see what Altius Minerals has done in eastern Canada. They purchased the mining rights for pennies on the dollar and have brought miners in to develop the properties and have taken a piece of the company and royalty payments. They also own a Royalty on the Voisey Bay Nickel mine. This Royalty alone paid out $5 million all in cash in 2008 and 2007...it is on the books at $11 million and it has a 25 year life... They have compounded growth at 37% a year clip over the last 10 years. *see their presentation on their website dated Feb 2010. *Rick Rule (he is a value investor in the resource sector and has partnered with Eric Sprott...he is a big holder and bigger supporter of the company)...he has several bnn interviews where he discusses the company. Altius is loaded in cash on a per share basis with no debt (margin of safety)....but it is their properties and royalties that offer the upside. They purchased over 10 percent of their shares back during the downturn where the other miners were issuing shares. mkt cap $305 million $205 million-cash equivalents after making $30 million in gains in IRC in 6 months (it was sold to Royal Gold with Altius securing the deal with the tender of their 10 percent position)...the market has not seen this gain in their financial results but it has been disclosed. $100m for the company after backing out the cash $100m-The Voisey bay royalty is worth at least this over 25 years..$4m a year is low...Nickel is hitting new highs for the year...Voisey bay is on strike right now so the market is forgetting it. This is an all cash payment made by Vale. When you back out the cash and the Royalty Altius is free or less than free as we think the Royalty could be worth much more. What's left for free? Look at the website they do a great job of describing their projects...I suggest you look at the Aurora uranium project and how they did it...2006 13 projects are ongoing Alderon is the one with the greatest near term potential. Their value in the market on conversion (not guaranteed) is in the $80m range. $2.50-they would own 34m shares on conversion if drilling supports what Alderon thinks. Alderon is made up of the former managment of Thompson Consolidated (iron ore) which is located very close to the Alderon sites. I wish we had owned Thompson it has gone from about 20 cents to over $10 bucks! They are producing iron ore this year. They have a $29m claim in court against Vale for underpayment on their royalty in Voisey Bay The biggest call option is NLRC...which they have written off to 0 on the balance sheet. It is the first refinery project that has been fully permitted in North america in a generation which also has some heavy hitters on board (Harry Dobson a billionaire from Scotland). They have a great deal invested in this project. With the financial crisis and suppliers troubles having put the project is in doubt (it has been through court proceedings) I am confident in the ability of the ceo Brian Dalton to salvage some value from it...If he can pull it off it as homerun. I like to speculate when it is free! For what it is worth we own the shares...we have purchased as low as $5.70 and we are the high for the year I believe at $10.75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 UPDATE. Stock is up about 40%. Rick Rule (a major owner of Altius) has been bought out by Sprott. From April 13th "Alderon is the one with the greatest near term potential. Their value in the market on conversion (not guaranteed) is in the $80m range. $2.50-they would own 34m shares on conversion if drilling supports what Alderon thinks. Alderon is made up of the former managment of Thompson Consolidated (iron ore) which is located very close to the Alderon sites. I wish we had owned Thompson it has gone from about 20 cents to over $10 bucks! They are producing iron ore this year." Converted Alderon has converted Altius shares and they now own about 45% of the company with a 3% royalty on future iron ore production...the 45% is worth about $90million and the royalty???we will see...this is what Leucadia did with Fortesque. The nickel Royalty is paying low amounts because of the Voisey bay strike but it appears that may be coming to an end. $400m market cap now...they now have approx $300m in cash and securities...so $100m for the other 12 projects. The oil refinery is still the massive call option...there has been no new news there. disclosure: It is our largest position. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dazel do you still see significant upside. I started getting excited towards the end then noted it was from April last year. Lol, congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 "Dazel do you still see significant upside. I started getting excited towards the end then noted it was from April last year. Lol, congrats." Yes. We have doubled our position in the last month..We love the managemnet...The CEO recently added to his position through the purchase of his opitons...He has about $20 million in the company of whihc he is the co founder..all options are long term and performance based... It basically trades for cash if you include the Voisey Bay royalty with marketable securities. This year there are 3 catalysts playing out. Alderon could be just huge. They will be news driven all year and already are take out candidate from their neighbours in Labrador...Labrador is the iron ore hot spot of north America right now. Royalty- The strike at Voisey bay will end soon. The oil refinery project has to be concluded by Oct 2011..so we will see news even if it is a liquidation Altius will get money out of it...a sale is good but A partner would double the stock over night. Take a look at the project on their website. Altius hit $45 a share in 2007... Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Doubling down after a 40% run is extremely hard to do for a value investor. Buying shares at $13 when they were bought for $5 is even harder. That speaks values about your conviction. ----- 2011 has really hit the ground running. I feel as though I need a none oil related resource play (more pure play then LUK and more of an investment than a tracking stock) and a bank. Both for investment returns and continued circle of competence development. I plan to look into this one and one posted by Swizzled / Canadian Value. http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CanadianValueInvesting-StudyOfBuffett/~3/DK2mnsG9JKQ/idea-to-check-out.html What I do enjoy is, I dont need to know much for either of these. I understand options and will take them where I can get them when they are free. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tengen Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Altius hit $45 a share in 2007... Are you sure about that? I've owned ALS since 2006 (and have also added over the years) and I don't recall it ever trading that high. I agree it's a great company. My second best investment after FFH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like ALS hit a peak of about $30 in 2007. I checked out their balance sheets for the past three years - looks like they bought back their own shares which reduced their outstanding shares a bit but this is getting offset by generous distribution of options? Also, the oil refinery was in bankruptcy where ALS owned equity. Typically, in a bankruptcy, equity gets wiped and creditors take possession. I couldnt find anything obvious to say that ALS will have something in the refinery. To be conservative with estimates, I gave it a value of zero. Their business model is definitely interesting/smart. Looking at their Q2 financial statements, I see cash, marketable securities, accounts receivable and income tax receivable at ~172 million. The total equity is around 232 million. The revenues from continuing operations dont seem to be adequate to explain the rest of the market cap - so pretty much people are betting on the remaining exploration projects to pay off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Congratulations Dazel! Looks like a good find. I tried to find proxy in SEDAR to find out how much skin management has in the company.-the proxy for this year in SEDAR appears to be another company....anyways I am surprised and a little concerned that one of the founders only has $20 million in company (though that is pretty good for a 34 year old, assuming he started out with very little) + mkt cap is $300 m...do you know off hand how much the rest of management owns.Looks like there has been some selling -http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=als -I know that selling may not be that important. I am impressed that CEO is only 34. Never heard of him before(that does not mean much), but could he be the next superstar? Other minor concern is that some of the cash equivalents is the value of resource stock held which I believe has had a good run lately, though. I don t follow resource sector very closely at all. I like the royalties. I would think it would do well in an inflationary environment + with growing economy. Do you have a figure on how much the stock is worth? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They own the debt on the oil refinery...as well as the equity. I believ the $45 was an intra day high...Rick rule said he owned at $45...could be mistaken. The margin of safety is in the projects and assets...they made $200 million on their Uranium spin out...they will likely make more tham that on Alderon... If they were to liquidate they would likely be worth double...You have to look at their track record of converting their assets in to cash...It is very similar to what Leucadia has done over the last 8 years. Except Altius has returned more money per porject...obviuosly on a smaller scale. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Total equity does not include the approx $90 million unrealized gain on Alderon....The shares were issued to Altius in Decemeber...we expect that the Alderon investment and cash will equal...the $400 million market cap...so the rest of the very valuable assets are free. I do not have a target price...and I do not have a time frame but the company is worth much more than $400m. The numbers will look stupid with $100m gain in the quarter...we expect the market to give the management the appropriate multiple once the Alderon project gets more attention. They have about $3m invested in Alderon. disclosure we bought Alderon (ADV-venture) at $1.50 and sold it recently...we are more comfortable holding the bigger Altius postion. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 *The $200m is moslty cash or short term Canadian government paper...The Alderon investment has not had a reporting quarter...so The cash and marketable securities would be closer to $300m...that is what the balance sheet will look like next quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It seems as though the Refinery project is mainly just the necessary approvals. Am I missing something. That in and of itself is worth something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The refinery project approvals are the intrisic value...Altius put about $100 million of equity and debt into the project...they carry it at 0....and it really is a call option...it could be worth very little...but in a liquidation scenario...Altius as the only debt holder would get something back. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I was speaking to an engineer in the energy field a few weeks ago---and he was explaining how difficult to get an approval for a refinery which we all know due to enviro issues + who wants one in their back yard....but I did not realize how long it takes to build one + get it going/operating. He said it takes >10 years from scratch. Does that sound right? If so than the refinery owned by ALS has significant value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Refining project is NLRC -Newfoundland and Labrador and Refining Corporation (they have a website) It really has very little value right now...they need a Major partner...It is the first Refinery project approved in North America in generation...for what that is worth? It is appropreaite to value it at 0...we value it as an out of the money call option. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Seems like one should focus on Alderon in terms of understanding where the value will come from this year. The royalty issue is fairly straight forward. Amazing what they did with the Uranium play. 650k to 200 million. I dont think even LUK has done something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurjot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 this is a good company to own in resource sector. Also they hired Paul Van Eeden recently to manage part of their 200 million cash. if they can find someone to finance the refinery stock can double from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
netnet Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Two questions: Does anyone have any more info on the CEO? I assume that the game of buying mining land in Canada for pennies on the dollar is probably gone, for this cycle anyway; so what is the next trick for these guys and do they have the discipline to wait. (Or is their 10 or11 deal pipeline plus the refinery enough to last through this cycle.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Alderon is at $3.60 (up 12%) on the news that their next door neighbor got taken out for $5 billion...Alderon"s management is the former founders of Consolidated Thompson....interested yet???? http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/bloomberg/SIG=13ivsap6u/*http%3A//www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/cliffs-to-buy-consolidated-thompson-to-tap-china-iron-ore-growth.html?cmpid=yhoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Dammit Dazel. Everything im looking at is running away. Where is the pull back when you need it. I would hope for a take over, Im not overly bullish on Iron Ore given the state of Chinese investments. I like the fact that these guys are Wheelers and dealers and arent wedded to the mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurjot Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 just wanted to let everyone know altius will have a booth at vancouver gold show next weekend. if you have any question can be answered there. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 thx for the update....i saw it and did not post. Alderon at $5.70 makes Altius free...trading for cash. With all of the above projects and the royalty stream at Voisey bay that will be bigger in the coming years. Altius also has $28m lawsuit against Vale for under payment. we continue to add shares. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
netnet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I read through a number of AR's today. This Brian Dalton seems like the real deal, a Pierre Lassonde or a Schulich in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 When Rick Rule was asked about what he thought about Dalton and the management at Altius... He said it made him "giddy" on BNN to think how much money they would make on the $200m cash hoard in the mining environment at the time. They have since made $30m on the IRC deal, a few $$m and counting in Millrock res and about $110 million and counting on Alderon! While most mining companies are selling shares...Altius is bufferring cash with capital gains. Our kind of company. I would have to concur with Mr Rule that I am giddy with what they have done. Problem not unlike other most forgotten stocks they are not followed by a single analyst...because they don't have any debt to raise or capital to raise. That may change if they want to keep their percentage stake in Alderon as it moves towards production. I have some ideas...for another time. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value-is-what-you-get Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 "Royalty revenue from the LNRLP was $1,654,000 during the year ended April 30, 2010 compared to $4,088,000 for the same period last year. Decreased royalty revenue was the result of lower concentrate shipments as a result of the continued strike at the mine site and at the smelting facilities in Canada. The reduction in concentrate shipments is expected to continue until the strike is resolved." Strike is resolved so . . . looks like this cash tap has been turned on again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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