Liberty Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Thanks abyli, I really appreciate you sharing your notes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Thanks abyli, I really appreciate you sharing your notes. +1! Very useful! :) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 ALS has completed the capital raise, & we are unlikely to see it < $14/share again. Analysts start fanning out today. http://altiusminerals.com/press-releases/view/288 There is a lot to be discussed, & agreed, in the JL negotiation. 6 months is probably quite reasonable - Sep/Oct announcement 1. Final price for the right to mine. Incentives, infrastructure, payback periods, environmental restrictions, hiring practices, etc. 2. Mine details, economics, expansion plans, combinations, etc. JL alone, JL/Kami together, other combo's, etc. 3. Amendments to existing agreements (if required), legislative & board approvals by the various parties. 4. Construction timelines, financing, temporary worker importation from China/India, etc. 5. Local, & St Johns, politics etc. The Kami Project is a good 3-4 months further along, & started in January. If ALS can negotiate a JL in 6 months, a Kami Project would probably have a similar type of timeline; therefore an announcement must be fairly close. Just keep in mind that those royalties are a good 2yrs away, so don't expect an instant jump in the share price. To capitalize on Kami in the near term, ALS needs to dividend out a good chunk of their current royalty stream; simply because as a buyer I will be forced to discount at well below the market rate of 1.25%, in recognition that the royalty stream will double in 2 yrs - from a mine that is actually being built. The result is a much higher share price. Buyers will also gladly pay; as any additional royalty from the existing pipeline means more upside, & the higher share-price means less dilution if ALS subsequently buys another royalty stream. Most majors have an over-leveraged BS, & the sale of a small royalty on existing production, would benefit everyone. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigatk Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Thanks abyli, I really appreciate you sharing your notes. YES! Thank you for calling but even more for sharing your notes. ... Very good answers and very encouraging to just continue sitting and doing nothing. Except perhaps to acquire more shares! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naboo Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Thank you for the notes. I think the key is whether ADV can get the finance. If ADV can't get finance done, JL doesn't mean anything, and ALS will be just worth current royalties (around C$13 to 15). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Thank you for the notes. I think the key is whether ADV can get the finance. If ADV can't get finance done, JL doesn't mean anything, and ALS will be just worth current royalties (around C$13 to 15). Correct!! Hopefully one can pick up shares around 13 if news are not released before summer. Expect some volatilty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Alderon fairly volatile today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Alderon fairly volatile today alderon stock Price Action in the last time is a big big joke. :D iam big in the red now. share Price falling. down the toilet 8) ;D ;D ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moody202 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Correct!! Hopefully one can pick up shares around 13 if news are not released before summer. Expect some volatilty How would you summarize the down side if this can be bought at 13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moody202 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 I had a short phone talk with Chad last Friday. Here are my notes Who is Chad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 I had a short phone talk with Chad last Friday. Here are my notes Who is Chad? http://altiusminerals.com/people Scroll down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Thanks for the Alderon shares if anyone here was kind enough to sell them to me today! I have been Looking for volatility...very hard to find it... Bank of America has provided a little as well... Off topic..but in the Merrill Lynch survey today...investors are holding more cash than they have in 2 and half years...Bank of America was $5....at that time...now thats volatility! Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Thanks for the Alderon shares if anyone here was kind enough to sell them to me today! I have been Looking for volatility...very hard to find it... Bank of America has provided a little as well... Off topic..but in the Merrill Lynch survey today...investors are holding more cash than they have in 2 and half years...Bank of America was $5....at that time...now thats volatility! Dazel. So that means that we will be heading down in general. Investors not willing enough to invest. Just wait and see. If I recall correctly the forward p/e for Nasdaq and Dow are well above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Thanks for the Alderon shares if anyone here was kind enough to sell them to me today! I have been Looking for volatility...very hard to find it... Bank of America has provided a little as well... Off topic..but in the Merrill Lynch survey today...investors are holding more cash than they have in 2 and half years...Bank of America was $5....at that time...now thats volatility! Dazel. So that means that we will be heading down in general. Investors not willing enough to invest. Just wait and see. If I recall correctly the forward p/e for Nasdaq and Dow are well above average. Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 I don't really care about the averages...but 17 on the S&P is not cheap....however, the word of the day is deflation....which means "every" central bank in the world gets a green light to print...they want investors to put the cash to work. As you see from this board I invest in fear...it's the only way to get a good price....we are in "fear" in Altius sector...A lot of doors are going to open for Altius and it will be a very different company in the coming years. We are in the 50's monetary policy... Buffett made his fortune there..I intend to follow! The average 30 year yield over the century is not far off where we are now...about 4%. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Don't know if this was posted before, but this is interesting and Altius is mentioned about 3/4 of the way down. http://www.mining.com/web/the-value-of-project-generators-in-a-low-probability-industry/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Anyone see ADV may need a very dilutive equity offering to get the financing done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naboo Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Anyone see ADV may need a very dilutive equity offering to get the financing done? That is a must. now ALS holds 25+% AXX, I am ok with ~10% after dilution, even 5%. As long as ADV can get the financing done, I am happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Anyone see ADV may need a very dilutive equity offering to get the financing done? I personally don't care how dilutive an ADV offering is if it gets the mine built. The royalty that results is of much greater value than the current equity stake, imo. If dilution is the price of that royalty coming into production, its a price ALS should be very happy to pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 The ADV interest in the Kami Project is being diluted, not the shares of ADV itself. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 The ADV interest in the Kami Project is being diluted, not the shares of ADV itself. SD Not much difference in end result. You either own a large percent of a company with title to fewer assets (smaller claim on mine) or you own a smaller percentage of a company with title to a larger amount of assets. End state isn't different for shareholders...at least it shouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Anyone see ADV may need a very dilutive equity offering to get the financing done? As I wrote earlier the financing could be 40 debt 60 equity. If they need 1,1 billion that means that 660 million needs to come from an equity offering. At Alderon value that means 440 million new shares. Total share count would then stand at 440+144 = 584 million. Altius has, what, 32,9 M so that equals 5,6 %. I don´t believe they will add to their position. I suspect Hebei to want to keep their 19,9 % so they would buy more (they have roughly 28 M today). They then need to buy 88 million more shares. Liberty will need to buy more as well and I also believe they will add. Then we have the new chinese player which I have a gut feeling will be Wisco (Wuhan Steel). I also see them entering at around 20 % or 116 M shares. Maybe they will aslo add to the JV adding cash that way as well. So new share structure could look like this: Hebei 20 % (116 M shares) WISCO 20 % (116 M shares) Liberty 10 % (58 M shares) Altius 5,6 % (32,9 M shares) Rest 44,4 % JV like this: 25 % Hebei WISCO 25 % Alderon 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Here is a link to Wisco´s web page and the latest news about their "first successful self produced over seas shipment of iron ore". http://www.wisco.com.cn/wisco_en/80/show_15593.shtml Not much of course, yet. But the mindset is clear not only from Wisco but the rest of the chinese players as well. They will succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 So base case for NPV of 8 % leaves us with 3,24 B Alderon would then have 50 % of this or 1,62 B Share count 584 M leaves us with a share price of 2,77. So I see a share price around 2,77 as the correct valuation as finicing is done (maybe lower but as approching production it should come to this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Altius royalty portfolio is grossly undervalued in terms of the average market multiple....the average multiple in the market is around 20 x ebitda for anyone with more than 5 producing royalty income streams. Keep in mind One of Royal Gold's (they trade at 21x) largest royalties remains Voisey Bay which they share with Altius. The " average" market multiple for world class royalty companies would price Altius around $19 per share....Kami, JL, Aurora and the other 10 or so projects become pipeline opportunities which all royalty companies in this area have... If Altius were to have an equity boost from a project great but the market should be focusing on the royalty income stream for the next half century...their investment banks have done a very poor job (so far) in giving them exposure to this discount...I expect that to change....unfortunately, we may have to wait for earnings headlines...as the growth in cash flow will be unmatched in any company in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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