doc75 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Rick Rule is the best and slickest salesman in the industry. I know because about 10 years ago, I found all his interviews and loved listening to him. He sounds so smart and thoughtful and knowledgeable. Doesn't sound at all like he's selling you something. I remember back in the day he was really pounding the table on some of the geothermal power companies... I looked up a few. Ram Power has a website that hasn't been updated since 2012 and isn't listed anymore, Magma Energy merged with some other players (probably in distress) who then got bought be Alterra, a company who's stock hasn't been going anywhere... Rule was saying similarly glowing things about Altius many years ago, back when the stock was the same price as now but the SP500 was probably around 1100-200. I've always been surprised by the respect that Rule commands in the resource space. Every time I looked into it, I was struck by how much cherry-picking was going on when evaluating his success. I haven't looked extensively into it -- just saying my semi-ignorant impression aligns with Liberty's. Has anyone here looked carefully at his results / hit-rate / whatever? I know there are some followers here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Rick Rule is the best and slickest salesman in the industry. I know because about 10 years ago, I found all his interviews and loved listening to him. He sounds so smart and thoughtful and knowledgeable. Doesn't sound at all like he's selling you something. I remember back in the day he was really pounding the table on some of the geothermal power companies... I looked up a few. Ram Power has a website that hasn't been updated since 2012 and isn't listed anymore, Magma Energy merged with some other players (probably in distress) who then got bought be Alterra, a company who's stock hasn't been going anywhere... Rule was saying similarly glowing things about Altius many years ago, back when the stock was the same price as now but the SP500 was probably around 1100-200. Rule’s geothermal theme did NOT work out. For the sake of accuracy (because Liberty is so often wrong when it gets to the detail level): Ram Power is now Polaris Infrastructure. It still trades. Alterra was acquired by a utility for $1.1 billion a few years ago. I won’t go into the counterexamples of when Rule’s picks have made extraordinary gains because it is too boring to play that game. Yeah, he rode the 2000s commodity bubble that lifted all boats, and playing in the junior micro-cap game, he can easily cherry pick examples that went up 50x or whatever because of the incredible volatility in the space. That's salesmanship. What I'd like to see is his actual returns taking everything into account, and not just for a cherry-picked period, but I haven't been able to find that. As for RAM, maybe someone should've bothered to update their website: http://www.ram-power.com/news-media.html In any case, it looks like PIF.to is down about 99.8% since around 2010 when I heard Rick Rule pound the table on them (and that wasn't even the peak, which was double that level), if the chart I'm looking at is accurate... Did they do a reverse 100-for-1 split at some point? Can't easily find a release about it because it's not clear what the company was called at the time.. I guess his geothermal theme didn't work in kind of the same way that Eric Sprott pounding the table on silver (saying it would go 10x or 100x, I don't remember) right at the peak of the bubble did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 I've always been surprised by the respect that Rule commands in the resource space. Every time I looked into it, I was struck by how much cherry-picking was going on when evaluating his success. I haven't looked extensively into it -- just saying my semi-ignorant impression aligns with Liberty's. Has anyone here looked carefully at his results / hit-rate / whatever? I know there are some followers here. Thanks. In a world of King Worlds News goldbugs and preppers, guys like him and Fleckenstein sound really rational and sane. I think that's his biggest selling point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Ah, never wrong that Liberty... Wasn't he in Valeant and also Fortress Paper in its glory days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Ah, never wrong that Liberty... Wasn't he in Valeant and also Fortress Paper in its glory days? Yeah, as I've said often, these were mistakes. I make plenty of mistakes still. Doesn't mean I can't look at the facts and reasoning and point out when I think others are making mistakes too. One doesn't have anything to do with the other. What's the point of a forum otherwise? Everybody patting each other on the back and never questioning each other's assumptions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Word is EMU hit some bonanza silver grades in the latest assay results from the 2019 Vidalita drill program. They are in a trading halt to maximize the market impact. Altius has an equity position in EMU and a royalty on Vidalita. EMU has been quite persistent despite mediocre drill results the last 2 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Ah, never wrong that Liberty... Wasn't he in Valeant and also Fortress Paper in its glory days? What's the point of a forum otherwise? Everybody patting each other on the back and never questioning each other's assumptions? I would've guessed trolling people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Rick Rule is the best and slickest salesman in the industry. I know because about 10 years ago, I found all his interviews and loved listening to him. He sounds so smart and thoughtful and knowledgeable. Doesn't sound at all like he's selling you something. I remember back in the day he was really pounding the table on some of the geothermal power companies... I looked up a few. Ram Power has a website that hasn't been updated since 2012 and isn't listed anymore, Magma Energy merged with some other players (probably in distress) who then got bought be Alterra, a company who's stock hasn't been going anywhere... Rule was saying similarly glowing things about Altius many years ago, back when the stock was the same price as now but the SP500 was probably around 1100-200. I've always been surprised by the respect that Rule commands in the resource space. Every time I looked into it, I was struck by how much cherry-picking was going on when evaluating his success. I haven't looked extensively into it -- just saying my semi-ignorant impression aligns with Liberty's. Has anyone here looked carefully at his results / hit-rate / whatever? I know there are some followers here. Thanks. Rick Rule and Global US, now part of Sprott, are by far the finest analysts of junior resource companies and/or their properties, respectively. It is no coincidence that Rick Rule advises the chinese government what to buy into. They are about the only smart money in the sector that is still around 20-30 years later. But yes, they aggressively play the retail investor. I highly recommend Sprott Global if you are interested in the junior resource sector. The Global Res. Partnerships are legendary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Another thing about Mr. Rule: You have to read between the lines sometimes. He's very knowledgeable and you can really learn a lot. I recall him talking about Norilsk Nickel many years back as a side note when promoting company X. And he said sth. like "the best PGM project in the world is owned by Norilsk and nothing else comes close but company X has some fantastic PGM project". So I did my DD and bought heavily into it, now enjoying 20-30% yields on my cost as palladium prices picked up. He knows the space. He knows the best deposits. But he sell credit to junior miners, so always be aware ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD4Qy7wBOZpfpske92GA%3D%3D EMU announces what it calls a discovery hole: 48 meters of 2.8 g/t gold and 19 g/t silver, with a subsection of 24 meters of 5.0 g/t gold and 28 g/t silver. The mineralization starts from 16 meters underground. It’s a nice start. I like the long intersection of mineralization, the shallow open pit possibility, and the comparison to the Salare Nortes deposit. EMU plans to drill 50 aircore holes, many more assays coming. The Altius Chiliean subsidiary is due another 12.5 million EMU shares as various benchmarks are hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 https://ceo.ca/@newswire/labrador-iron-ore-royalty-corporation-cash-dividends-fb968 LIF announces a $1.05 dividend for Q1. Beastly. 3.971 million shares x C$1.05 = C$4.17 million royalty revenue to Altius for Q1. This is how Altius finally hits C$20 million in quarterly revenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Management changes at LIORC: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labrador-iron-ore-royalty-corporation-131000972.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Q4 2018 Altius had C$17.5 million in royalty revenue. Adding another ~C$500K in project generation revenue brings total revenue to C$18 million for the quarter. The recently announced LIF dividend adds C$2 million extra for Q1 beyond the LIF revenue received in Q4. Q1 has slightly improved copper and zinc prices (as well as strong met coal prices), steady utilization rates at the electrical coal plants, and an unchanged potash environment. All that means Altius comfortably reaches the C$20 million quarterly revenue benchmark in Q1. I very much want to see C$80 million total revenue for 2019. * The smaller recently acquired royalties will not contribute to 2019 revenue. Altius did NOT exercise co-participation rights on the producing Cattlin lithium royalty. It did exercise on the two development stage lithium royalties mentioned in the PDAC presentation. Lower price, higher potential return than Cattlin. The producing Vermont solar/hydro royalty, acquired in the Great Bay Renewables deal, yields $200K in annual royalty revenue but that revenue will cover overhead for the Altius Renewable Royalty subsidiary. It won’t show up as attributable royalty revenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD4Qy7wBOZpfpske92GA%3D%3D EMU announces what it calls a discovery hole: 48 meters of 2.8 g/t gold and 19 g/t silver, with a subsection of 24 meters of 5.0 g/t gold and 28 g/t silver. The mineralization starts from 16 meters underground. It’s a nice start. I like the long intersection of mineralization, the shallow open pit possibility, and the comparison to the Salare Nortes deposit. EMU plans to drill 50 aircore holes, many more assays coming. The Altius Chiliean subsidiary is due another 12.5 million EMU shares as various benchmarks are hit. Nice reaction to the EMU discovery hole coming out of the trading halt. EMU is up 93% on 1.3 million shares traded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 http://altiusminerals.com/coal-2030 Court filings from Altius’s coal lawsuit against Alberta and the federal government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 I gotta ask, this thread is years old, hundreds of posts, what is the allure of this company? I don’t know if any money has been made here, but if so has it been worth the brain damage? In other words, why haven’t you guys chucked this one in the too hard pile, years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 I gotta ask, this thread is years old, hundreds of posts, what is the allure of this company? I don’t know if any money has been made here, but if so has it been worth the brain damage? In other words, why haven’t you guys chucked this one in the too hard pile, years ago? Thousands of posts, actually. 7098 posts to be exact, but who would bother to count? FYI, Altius pays C$10 per positive post so that’s why there’s so many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 I don't post much here any more because I negotiated with Altius for a 25% royalty on Linealdin's posts. LC, fair question. One asked many times by this poster. For almost two decades I avoided nearly all commodity-linked or full-bore commodity stocks. Then I didn't. But wished I had continued to avoid them. I underestimated the commodity cycle and overestimated Altius' odds of particular transactions that would drive value, regardless of cycle. Now I guess I'd say I'm waiting for the cycle "wave" to give me the ride of my life. Over my holding period, I've gained a lot of respect for Altius' management team. I think they operate the right way in a tough industry. Added to a very large position for me during 2015, and trimmed back to a 5% position in my portfolio. This is performance data from a commodity fund from Dimensional Fund Advisors loosely following the Bloomberg Commodity Index, to give you a sense for how bad the industry backdrop has been (Altius has crushed the index relatively, so there's that): http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=DCMSX®ion=usa&culture=en_US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 I gotta ask, this thread is years old, hundreds of posts, what is the allure of this company? I don’t know if any money has been made here, but if so has it been worth the brain damage? In other words, why haven’t you guys chucked this one in the too hard pile, years ago? Because the business model is appealing - but the environment hasn't cooperated. Also, Altius at the beginning of this thread was a VERY different company than it is today. Most of us got involved with Altius during the beginning of the bear market in commodities. We're all waiting for the bull market to harvest what was planted. That being said, I think we'd all agree that returns this far have been lackluster. I struggle with this position because I trust the management and like their approach, but have little to show for it. I don't want to be the guy who calls it suits too soon because I was impatient, but also don't want to be the guy justifying holding a position for 10 years with nothing to show for it. We'll see where I end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Does one lead to another? By that I mean, you say the business model is attractive - I assume this is referring to the various royalty streams. And you also say the environment is terrible. Does the only reason that such a business model (i.e. the collection of various royalties) can exist is because the environment is so terrible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 I mean, the depressed environment IS what leads to oversees opportunity for Altius. Both in royalty purchases/negotiations as well as their JV portfolio. That's kind of the point - they're counter cyclical. Investing at the bottom and exiting on the way up. The problem is that these are multi-year cycles and all we've really encountered so far has been the multi-year cycle down from 2011-2016. 2017 & 2018 appear to be the start of the next leg upwards, but it's been a somewhat shallow recovery so far and we're only 2 years into it. We are at what appears to be the start of the trend upwards, and Altius' share price has responded SOME to that trend reversal. But not enough for it have been worthwhile for the shares that have been held long-term so far. The hope is that seeds they planted over the last 5-6 years will produce new royalties to bring up income AND opportustically exit some juniors with a few hundred million in gains. We haven't seen the latter part yet and are only seeing green shoots of the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Missed the call this AM but caught this in the earnings release: "Subsequent to year end the Corporation drew $25 million on its revolving credit facility. The drawdown was to complete the purchase of additional shares of Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corporation, while cash on hand was used for the renewable royalty acquisition and the Curipamba project royalty acquisition. The Corporation has current debt of $135 million and cash of $22 million." I don't think additional LIORC shares had been disclosed before this...maybe I'm wrong on that. That text sounds to me like they added $25 million to their LIORC position after year end. It's adding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Q4: Net earnings for the year were $1.9 million ($0.03 per share). A Q4 2018 loss of $12.4 million ($0.29 per share) includes non-cash impairment charges of $14.3 million on a pre tax basis ($0.28 per share after tax) relating primarily to the write-down of a pre-production stage royalty interest, goodwill and $3.5 million relating to the Genesee Royalty Limited Partnership’s amended royalty calculation. Fourth quarter earnings also include a $4.1 million unrealized loss on fair value of derivatives and a $1.4 million share of loss in associates reflecting equity accounting for the Adventus Zinc Corporation (“Adventus”) and Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (“Alderon”) holdings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Missed the call this AM but caught this in the earnings release: "Subsequent to year end the Corporation drew $25 million on its revolving credit facility. The drawdown was to complete the purchase of additional shares of Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corporation, while cash on hand was used for the renewable royalty acquisition and the Curipamba project royalty acquisition. The Corporation has current debt of $135 million and cash of $22 million." I don't think additional LIORC shares had been disclosed before this...maybe I'm wrong on that. That text sounds to me like they added $25 million to their LIORC position after year end. It's adding up. Not all $25 million. LIF position went from 3.5 million to 3.971 million shares. Previously disclosed. Maybe $23.5 per share. Balance of revolver drawdown went to rebuilding cash position after Curipamba and 1st tranche renewable energy purchase (US$17.5 million total). 5 million Champion shares sold in Q1 after Champion's furious runup. Altius took some chips off the table. I estimate C$8 million from the sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Altius financials show $200K spent in 2018 on a cobalt project in Spain. Here are some details: http://www.aurumexploration.com/saint-patrick-asturias-spain-dolomite-breccia-hosted-cobalt/ This cobalt project is in Northern Spain. LRH Exploration and Altius had a joint project generation effort that identified a past producing cobalt mine. They staked 69,000 hectares with funding from Generic Capital Inc., a Toronto money group. Past production was of 12% copper, 1.5% nickel and 1.5% cobalt. Nice. LRH is an Aurum company. Aurum previously founded the Irish version of Adventus with funding from Callinan and Altius. I like that a deep pocketed group has partnered on the project at this early stage. They are a funding source if exploration is successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now