ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[linealdin]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4283934-altius-minerals-corp-atusf-ceo-brian-dalton-q2-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript

 

Transcript of Q2 conference call.

 

Dalton mentioned in passing two major events in the copper space: Hudbay had its permit for Rosemont cancelled by a court while Rio Tinto announced a $1.9 billion cost overrun and up to a 30 month delay at Oyu Tolgoi. These are both mega copper projects. The supply side of the copper bull story gets better for Altius.

[linealdin]

http://altiusminerals.com/projects/goethite-bay-iron-ore

 

“In late August 2019 Altius granted a a 73% owned private subsidiary of Avidian Gold Corp. (TSX-V:AVG), High Tide Resources Corp. (“High Tide”), an exclusive option to purchase a 100% interest in its Goethite Bay Iron Project in the Labrador Trough by: (i) High Tide incurring exploration expenditures on the Project of at least $2,000,000 by December 31, 2021; (ii) the issuance of 19.9% of the issued and outstanding common shares of High Tide immediately following cumulative equity financings of no less than $5,000,000; and (iii) High Tide becoming a publicly listed company in Canada within 24 months from the execution date.

 

“Upon High Tide acquiring a 100% interest in the Project, Pubco shall grant to Altius a 2.75% gross sales royalty (GSR) on all iron ore produced, removed, and recovered from the Project.”

 

[linealdin]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VA0CX

 

The China iron ore pellet story is still intact. Steelmakers moving to the coast near environmentally fragile areas. They need to reduce emissions. Best way to do that is with imported pellets.

 

Pellet demand in China expected to increase 40% by 2023. Implications are obvious for IOC/LIF.

 

The iron ore grade premium story paused for over the last 6 months but will come back fiercely.

 

IOC just paid a US$200 million dividend to its equity shareholders for Q3. LIF as a 15.1% shareholder received roughly C$40 million. The LIF dividend, in turn, should be around C$1.10 per share in Q3.

[linealdin]

“Our shareholders will recall that these renewable royalty financings are intended as replacement-type reinvestments of our electrical coal royalty revenue as it is phased out over the next decade. Our confidence is growing that the scale of the opportunity that has been innovated by the team at Altius Renewable Royalties is not only sufficient to meet this objective, but likely much larger. As such, we have begun discussions with select potential co-investment partners and also begun the process of assessing the merits and potential timing of a public listing of ARR.”

 

Larger deals, with co-investors, coming for new renewable energy royalties. A public listing is also likely coming. The market favors pure play renewable energy vehicles. Brookfield Renewable Partners, for example, is a market darling with a US$31 billion market cap.

[hohi]

I couldn't resist and added a few more shares.

intrinsic value is just too high

[linealdin]

https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-completes-pipeline-corridor-from-wellfield

 

Excelsior construction now 90% complete. The new royalty should start flowing in a couple of months.

[Williams406]

Special divvie of $0.75 from LIORC:

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/labrador-iron-ore-royalty-corporation-cash-dividends-for-the-third-quarter-of-2019-1-00-per-common-share-comprised-of-a-regular-dividend-of-0-25-and-a-special-dividend-of-0-75-803284545.html

[Liberty]

I couldn't resist and added a few more shares.

intrinsic value is just too high

 

Where do you see IV? How fast do you see it growing going forward?

[linealdin]

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aethon-minerals-announces-earn-in-agreement-with-option-to-joint-venture-with-rio-tinto-on-the-arcas-project-in-chile-300916548.html

 

Aethon signs a farm out deal for their Arcas property with Rio Tinto. Up to US$25 million for a 75% stake in the project.

 

Altius has an effective 1.5% royalty on Arcas. The investment by Rio Tinto validates the good work Altius did with its partners picking up Chilean properties during the mining downturn.

 

Also Abraplata is acquiring Aethon in an all share deal. Altius becomes a significant shareholder of Abraplata.

 

 

[linealdin]

Special divvie of $0.75 from LIORC:

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/labrador-iron-ore-royalty-corporation-cash-dividends-for-the-third-quarter-of-2019-1-00-per-common-share-comprised-of-a-regular-dividend-of-0-25-and-a-special-dividend-of-0-75-803284545.html

 

I know Altius has a “trading position” in LIF that they sold off at $32. I hope they’ve been buying it back at the recent drop to $25. Cheap stock price for such a large yield.

[hohi]

I couldn't resist and added a few more shares.

intrinsic value is just too high

 

Where do you see IV? How fast do you see it growing going forward?

 

At least 25+ CAD, imho (realized over the full commodity cycle). I am as frustrated as all ALS shareholders over the last few years, but I am more and more comfortable with my position as cash flow increasingly trickles down as dividends. potash + low cost copper + potentially renewables are not prone to getting into trouble in case the economy implodes. ALS is building (and I would argue already has) a strong foundation for growth. Were will that come from? Who knows, and probably it'll be something nobody sees coming (like a billion dollar deal on Julienne Lake + Kami or sth.).

 

In short I see good upside with todays intrinsic value, a lot of optionality and not much downside (for the long-term value investor, that can sit on his butt and do nothing through decade long commodity cycles).

[Williams406]

https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/labrador-iron-ore-royalty-corp-shareholding-increased-to-5-88/

 

Linealdin, We'll see if Altius re-purchased some LIORC of late. Anglo Pacific did. AP is approaching a 6% interest in LIORC.

[Liberty]

I couldn't resist and added a few more shares.

intrinsic value is just too high

 

Where do you see IV? How fast do you see it growing going forward?

 

At least 25+ CAD, imho (realized over the full commodity cycle). I am as frustrated as all ALS shareholders over the last few years, but I am more and more comfortable with my position as cash flow increasingly trickles down as dividends. potash + low cost copper + potentially renewables are not prone to getting into trouble in case the economy implodes. ALS is building (and I would argue already has) a strong foundation for growth. Were will that come from? Who knows, and probably it'll be something nobody sees coming (like a billion dollar deal on Julienne Lake + Kami or sth.).

 

In short I see good upside with todays intrinsic value, a lot of optionality and not much downside (for the long-term value investor, that can sit on his butt and do nothing through decade long commodity cycles).

 

Thanks. How do you get to that 25+ number?

[hohi]

Thanks. How do you get to that 25+ number?

 

Back of the envelope:

Producing Assets $725M

- Potash 400M+ [@ 20x FCF]

- Chapada 200M+ [@ 15x FCF]

- Voiseys 30M [@ 15x FCF]

- Coal 60M [@ 5x FCF]

- Met Coal 10M [@ 3x FCF]

- 777 20M [@ 2x FCF]

 

Development Assets ~100M

- Gunnison 17M

- Kami 32M

- Curipamba 10M

- Mt Pick. 10M

- Renewables Business 15M+

- Lithium Royalties 10M

 

Exploration Assets ~80M+

- IronOre Assets (JL, Geothite etc.) 30M+

- Royalties 20M+

- Other 30M+

 

That would be liquidation value for me

[Liberty]

Thanks. How do you get to that 25+ number?

 

Back of the envelope:

Producing Assets $725M

- Potash 400M+ [@ 20x FCF]

- Chapada 200M+ [@ 15x FCF]

- Voiseys 30M [@ 15x FCF]

- Coal 60M [@ 5x FCF]

- Met Coal 10M [@ 3x FCF]

- 777 20M [@ 2x FCF]

 

Development Assets ~100M

- Gunnison 17M

- Kami 32M

- Curipamba 10M

- Mt Pick. 10M

- Renewables Business 15M+

- Lithium Royalties 10M

 

Exploration Assets ~80M+

- IronOre Assets (JL, Geothite etc.) 30M+

- Royalties 20M+

- Other 30M+

 

That would be liquidation value for me

 

Thanks for sharing your numbers. We can disagree on them, but at least it's clear that you didn't just make up a number out of thin air.

[omagh]

Liberty...what's your number?  I think the guys in this thread should be "clear that you didn't just make up a number out of thin air" when fatuously disagreeing with hohi.

[ puts shoe on Liberty's foot ]

 

Thanks. How do you get to that 25+ number?

 

Back of the envelope:

Producing Assets $725M

- Potash 400M+ [@ 20x FCF]

- Chapada 200M+ [@ 15x FCF]

- Voiseys 30M [@ 15x FCF]

- Coal 60M [@ 5x FCF]

- Met Coal 10M [@ 3x FCF]

- 777 20M [@ 2x FCF]

 

Development Assets ~100M

- Gunnison 17M

- Kami 32M

- Curipamba 10M

- Mt Pick. 10M

- Renewables Business 15M+

- Lithium Royalties 10M

 

Exploration Assets ~80M+

- IronOre Assets (JL, Geothite etc.) 30M+

- Royalties 20M+

- Other 30M+

 

That would be liquidation value for me

 

Thanks for sharing your numbers. We can disagree on them, but at least it's clear that you didn't just make up a number out of thin air.

[Liberty]

Liberty...what's your number?  I think the guys in this thread should be "clear that you didn't just make up a number out of thin air" when fatuously disagreeing with hohi.

[ puts shoe on Liberty's foot ]

 

I don't have a number, I don't spend much time on things I know I don't want to own (there are gating factors and filters, once you fail one or more, no need to go that much further). I used to have a more precise value estimate years ago when I used to own the stock, though. But if you go back in this thread, I think I've written enough to make some of my issues with this company clear.

 

Not having a precise number doesn't mean I can't have opinions on it or on what people say about it. If I owned it and just hand-waved it that would be something else, but I don't own it and don't plan to.

 

I've also never made a movie or album, but I sometimes have opinions on the strong and weak points of those too. Owners of a company should want push-back to sharpen their thinking and make sure they're not missing anything, rather than an echo chamber where everybody agrees and thinks the same.

[bizaro86]

It has now been 2 weeks since anyone posted to this thread, which is likely some sort of record.  Linealdin, are you ok? I feel like I might have to set up my own google news filters for ALS related information now... :(

[cwericb]

I too miss Lineadin's contributions.  Has he become disenchanted with ALS? Has something happened to him - hopefully not? Does anyone here know why he has stopped posting? Perhaps his computer has died.

[Liberty]

He's probably just on vacation.

[Liberty]

Maybe it's a long vacation...

[mikek]

I heard he was last seen searching some exploration projects in Canada.  Rumor has it that the young man was typing a long update on this thread on his Iphone 8 when he fell down a hole and hasn't been seen since.  Rumor has it that a few workers with hard hats saw him from a distance as he was typing and he didn't see the do not enter sign near the large hole.  I will update if I hear back with any updates on the young man or the status of the Iphone 8.

 

 

[Gamecock-YT]

Looks like he's around in some capacity...

 

 

Last Active:November 01, 2019, 09:10:25 PM

[reader]

linealdin,

 

We miss you.

The Altius thread is not the same without you.

 

Maybe a teaser, though I'm sure you're up to date.

 

Mosaic cuts potash production at Esterhazy mine

 

"The Mosaic Company (MOS) announced today that it will temporarily curtail production at its Esterhazy mine, which when combined with a previously announced potash curtailment, brings total curtailments to up to 600,000 tonnes. The curtailment is not expected to impact the pace of development at the Esterhazy mine K3 project. The increased curtailment is based on increasing inventories as a result of a short-term slowdown in global potash markets and increased risks of a delay in Chinese contract settlement."

 

http://bit.ly/33jvcj5

 

 

 

 

[reader]

linealdin,

 

We miss you.

The Altius thread is not the same without you.

 

Maybe a teaser, though I'm sure you're up to date.

 

Mosaic cuts potash production at Esterhazy mine

 

"The Mosaic Company (MOS) announced today that it will temporarily curtail production at its Esterhazy mine, which when combined with a previously announced potash curtailment, brings total curtailments to up to 600,000 tonnes. The curtailment is not expected to impact the pace of development at the Esterhazy mine K3 project. The increased curtailment is based on increasing inventories as a result of a short-term slowdown in global potash markets and increased risks of a delay in Chinese contract settlement."

 

http://bit.ly/33jvcj5

 

 

From yesterdays results release:

 

" The company accelerated development of the Esterhazy K3 potash mine by an additional year, allowing the closure of the K1 and K2 shafts and elimination of brine management costs by mid-2022, as well as lower cost of production."

 

"The Colonsay, Saskatchewan potash mine was temporarily idled in August. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash mine will be temporarily idled, bringing the company’s total 2019 potash curtailment to 600,000 tonnes. The curtailment is not expected to impact the pace of development at the Esterhazy K3 mine project."

 

Looks like MOS realized combined potash  $264.8 per ton in Q3.

 

http://bit.ly/33irNRQ