Liberty Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 What I'm more curious about in the mid-term is to see if Altius will be as successful outside of Newfoundland-Labrador. If they can transition their expertise to other hunting grounds, I'll be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 What I'm more curious about in the mid-term is to see if Altius will be as successful outside of Newfoundland-Labrador. If they can transition their expertise to other hunting grounds, I'll be very happy. I concur ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I do not think you will see them outside their sweet spot for awhile...I would be very disapointed to see them waste much time outside their current projects unless they were able to buy royalties at a good price. We would rather see a large scale buyback. They have the largest area of staked mineral rights in all of Newfoundland Labrador...they know the government and they have proven success time and again. it looks like they could pull out $400m plus from Alderon over the medium term...ownership stake and Royalty...if the drilling continues to be successful. This is on a $2m investment! They have another iron ore project down the road!!!! What will it be worth by the time they are done? We think mr.market has lost his marbles here! disclosure we continue to buy....we just do not see anything as cheap. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moore_capital54 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 The one thing that worries me about Alderon is the rail capacity, other than that I agree with you on Altius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 The one thing that worries me about Alderon is the rail capacity, other than that I agree with you on Altius. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Alderon-Confirms-Rail-and-iw-2097525415.html?x=0&.v=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I do not think you will see them outside their sweet spot for awhile...I would be very disapointed to see them waste much time outside their current projects unless they were able to buy royalties at a good price. We would rather see a large scale buyback. They have the largest area of staked mineral rights in all of Newfoundland Labrador...they know the government and they have proven success time and again. it looks like they could pull out $400m plus from Alderon over the medium term...ownership stake and Royalty...if the drilling continues to be successful. This is on a $2m investment! They have another iron ore project down the road!!!! What will it be worth by the time they are done? We think mr.market has lost his marbles here! disclosure we continue to buy....we just do not see anything as cheap. Dazel. - Cranberry invests opportunistically wherever it makes sense. - Millrock is an example of a partnership operating outside of Newfoundland. - Dalton mentioned recently that he wants to buy royalties and also explore for new stakes in other geographic areas. I agree they have lots of projects they already can develop, but why not increasing the portfolio when it makes sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moore_capital54 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 That press release doesn't confirm anything. Trust me when I say that the biggest issue with this project is going to be rail capacity. Think about it for a second, if the fundamentals of iron ore remain strong enough to support the type of CAPEX that the Alderon project will require, there will be even less capacity on that line. And IOC is going to prefer to ramp up production themselves. I was at a conference recently where Morabito was pressed on this and he discussed some other options as did Adriana Resources which recently received an investment from Wisco. With iron ore its all about infrastructure, hence the CLM deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I do not think that it is out of the question to look outside of their geographic area, I am just stating the obvious...they have a tremendous portfolio with a book value of practically 0. I would monetize those assets first...using the proceeds to invest in the their "circle of competence" abroad. We vision this more in the fashion of what Leucadia has done at fortescue...and what Altius did at IRC and Millrock... The most unappreciated asset at Altius is their royalty stream which will attract very high valuations in the future...this is where we would like to see them be proactive. We would like them to show the market place what they think these royalties are worth...which would bring the share price to where it should be giving them more options to purchase more royalties. They have shown tremendous skill yet their valuation as a company in the market has both their royalty stream and management valued at the less than 0. We will be around when these are revalued...they will be happy days..but the revaluation will bring the opportunity you guys are discussing. That is where things will get interesting. If the stock price remains depressed it is possible that they will get taken out. With all that cash, the Alderon stake and the royalties valued at 0..smart money has to be looking at it. If that is the case we will likely follow Brian Dalton to his next venture or stay with him if a buy outkeeps him at Altius with greater financial flexability. He is a rare breed of business man and the makret is missing that. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 http://alderonmining.com/_resources/news/2011-07-06-NewsRelease.pdf It looks like Alderon has made up an all star team from the Labrador iron ore district...I like that his million in options are priced at $3.20. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Very nice. Seems like a heavy-hitter who can get things done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Altius-Minerals-Corporation-ccn-662971279.html?x=0&.v=1 Altius Minerals Corporation (TSX:ALS) Reports Annual Net Earnings of $70,239,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 We were $200k off on our prediction!! We expected it as did the market. What we did notice from the presentation of the annual report and press release is that they are marketing themselves as the "dominant" owner of staked mineral properties in the iron ore district of Labrador. I have been hoping they would do this.... Alderon has been a huge success but they own a lot more in the surrounding areas. As Shaleb said in the previous email iron ore prices are high and they do not look to come down for awhile...things could get very interesting if Altius were to sign a deal or two more in the same area and they were to get a bigger name in the market place for their position in the Labrador iron ore trough. Iron ore companies trade at a significant premium than Altius' depressed price. For those counting...the NPV of the Alderon royalty was $100m at half of then iron ore price of 180...it is at 169.70 today....however, if you double the resource to a billion tons and the price remains steady....you can do the math...could be worth a lot. If you were then to add the other properties they own in the area....you can see what we are talking about. We have done our homework on iron ore and have followed a lot of what Leucadia has said on the subject. But we also get the margin of safety from the large cash, marketable securities, Royalties and other projects. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 iron ore prices have risen over the week to $171...this obviously does not mean much over the long term but these prices are actual contracts for iron ore between buyers and sellers. here is a site to track it for anyone interested. http://www.mbironoreindex.com/ Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naboo Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I didn't see any conference call reminder in their AR. Will there be a conference call? Tried to call them in the morning, nobody answered the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurjot Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 hi, probably no converence call. email them and they respond promptly. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Indian iron ore consumption projected to be steel strong over the next few years on infrastructure spending: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/frank-holmes/2011/07/09/india-demand-for-iron-ore-made-of-steel :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 http://www.mbironoreindex.com/ Iron ore real contracts have been up now for 9 days in row....China had record demand in june at a 25% increase over May. They are building !0 million social housing untis for 2011!!! Yes 10 million. With gold hitting record highs and iron ore looking like it will hold for the forseeable future...Altius may be in the right place right time when the market figures out what they own. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Altius Gold holdings They own 529,229 Royal Gold shares...these are hitting new 52 week highs daily. We also know that the Voisey bay royalty will greatly improve Royal golds cashflows with the recent strike ending. It was the primary reason for the their purchase. They also own a piece Las Cruses in spain (leucadia developed) that has recently come on stream...and of course the gold roylalties are going up daily with gold at a new record highs. This investment is part of their highly liquid assets but it is far outperfroming the cash equivalent that the market gives it credit for. Milrock, viking and the rest of the potential royalties may get great interest in the coming year as gold hits new highs...if anyone on the board has greater detail on these individual royalties in would be great if you could post it. Cranberry Capital Their $25 million investment with Paul Van Eeden could also prove very profitable if the junior mining sector was to awaken in the next year. We are seeing a lot of action in junior gold miners as of late. I rarely discuss this side of their asset base as we value it as a call option like the NLRC...but it shows a another forgotten asset at Altius that could have large potential. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Thanks for posting, Dazel. I quite like this side of their business because I figure they are much better at investing in metals & commodities than I am. I love what they own directly, but I also like that they're opportunistic about going elsewhere and investing in good people and good projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Liberty good point. We made very good money on Leucadia stock when hit it $50 range back in 2007...we did not understand fortescue or inmet well enough to make direct investments but we cashed in by trusting the intelligent investing of Leucadia. We also felt Leucadia's other investments created a large enough margin of safety to buy the stock. A we know fortescue and inmet became home runs and they took Leucadia stock thorugh the roof. The situation with Altius is similar... Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Royal Gold hit another 52 week high today..at $66.62 It looks like Altius has a gain of about $13m since they took delivery of the Royal gold shares in the IRC deal. I would interested to see their Cranberry capital partnership small caps they own with what in going on in junior gold miners right now. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsto Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 So, I have a hypothetical question: Suppose you were given the choice between receiving one of the two following gifts today: 1) A stock option to purchase 32.3 million shares of Alderon @ 3.50 that can't be exercised until production begins; or 2) the 3% gross sales royalty altius owns. Which one would you choose? Anyone have any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value-is-what-you-get Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 So, I have a hypothetical question: Suppose you were given the choice between receiving one of the two following gifts today: 1) A stock option to purchase 32.3 million shares of Alderon @ 3.50 that can't be exercised until production begins; or 2) the 3% gross sales royalty altius owns. Which one would you choose? Anyone have any thoughts? The 3% Gross Sales Royalty. I think that judging by Consolidated Thompson's path to production that we're certainly in for some dilution which would undermine the value of the option. They'd both ultimately pay off, the question for me is how much grief along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I have written about this in the past. So if you check the thread you will get more detail. Here is how we look at it. We also know that Altius has publically stated they have been in China over the last 10 months looking at deals. They are in a lock up postion with regards to their ownership of Alderon until September. We think that the NPV of the royalty is worth more than the value of the shares they own. The market has given them a value of less than 0 for the NPV of the royalty. However, where it gets very interesting is the fact that they can control their destiny with regards to the Royalty. This could perhaps give them both a premium in their postion in Alderon since they are the majority owners. This could become "strategic" to a buyer who wants control of Alderon. Do you want to sell to Rio Tinto who may take longer to develop the mine and delay the royalty payments? Or do you go to Rio Tinto and say we will sell you control of Alderon but you will have to throw in another $200m for the royalty now rather than later. Or do you sell to a company from China now and collect on the royalty sooner as they will fast track develpment? Either way we see Altius in a great postion and we do not think the market has figured this out... As far as dilution...Altius is "full" of cash so they have the option to do many things that would avoid dilution...this also gives them negotiating power with any potential suitors. They do not "have" to do anything. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I agree with Dazel. The beauty here is that the Alderon shares and the royalty complement each other. The royalty is worth more because they can push for a more advantageous sale because of their stock. I added to my position this morning :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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