Guest Dazel Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Royal Gold hit another 52 week high today....$72...making Altius' stake in the company now worth $38.1 million...the $38 million is all profit from the IRC deal. hopefully the management is doing what they do best in this latest downturn... they are trading for less than cash. crazy times. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsto Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Crazy times indeed: Altius Market cap: $300m Cash: $190m Alderon shares : $100m Royal Gold shares: $38m Total: $328m Everything else: $-28m It seems like the market is pricing Altius as if its stake in Alderon was going to zero. Meanwhile it prices Alderon as if development will continue. Something has to give... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Can you confirm whether my numbers are correct and if the Altius share count is fully diluted? Does the $190m in cash include the Cranberry Capital joint investment? Thanks! Altius shares outstanding: 28,815,895. In addition to cash Altius owns: 32,285,006 Alderon shares. 529,297 Royal Gold shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Crazy times indeed: Altius Market cap: $300m Cash: $190m Alderon shares : $100m Royal Gold shares: $38m Total: $328m Everything else: $-28m It seems like the market is pricing Altius as if its stake in Alderon was going to zero. Meanwhile it prices Alderon as if development will continue. Something has to give... What I like is we get Voisey Bay royalty for free. This somewhere between 75-100M worth. I'm curoius to see what they can recuperate from the refinery project... 5-10M? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 It seems like I've been waiting for the ALS 2011 Annual report forever.. http://www.altiusminerals.com/annual.php Anyone has any idea when it is supposed to come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I emailed someone there and he said that it would be mailed the last week of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I emailed someone there and he said that it would be mailed the last week of September. Thanks. I wrote them a while ago but never heard back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 there is a write up on Value Investor Club http://valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/54912 Values ALS at $14-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Over 100k shares traded today. Wonder if there was a news item that hasn't hit the wires I monitor yet.. Anyone has seen anything? Could be just a random fluctuation in the spatio-temporal-continuum, though ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 No news that I see, though Alderon up about 10%. Not that the two securities trade in sync all that much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Well, that was dumb. I didn't think to check Alderon. Up a lot on 4x volume, so some of that probably spilled over to altius, though I'm still not sure if there's a specific reason for the jump. This piece has a lot of nice things to say about Alderon, though nothing really new: http://www.businessinsider.com/rodney-cooper-bullish-on-iron-ore-and-copper-2011-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 "Over 100k shares traded today. Wonder if there was a news item that hasn't hit the wires I monitor yet.. Anyone has seen anything? Could be just a random fluctuation in the spatio-temporal-continuum, though ;)" we were part of the buying......there was a large seller in Altius over the last 2 weeks....yesterday they were dumping at $10.30....odd for us to have liquidity in buying so we assumed it was forced or tax loss selling. This was before the pop in Alderon. this seller or sellers along with the fact Altius is in a "quiet period" before earnings and therefore cannot buy shares have driven the shares to stupid levels. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 http://www.mbironoreindex.com/ iron ore is now at a 3 month high! just in time for the Alderon scoping study that is out this month. We expect the numbers to look very good for production at Alderon at which time the world will take notice of the value of Alderon's potential. The really wonderful part for both Alderon and Altius is that the potential suitors are awash in cash and have the ability to take on massive amounts of leverage for capital build outs at record low interest rates. Things could get very interesting. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 this seller or sellers along with the fact Altius is in a "quiet period" before earnings and therefore cannot buy shares have driven the shares to stupid levels. That's a good point. What's the rule on the quiet period & buybacks? How long? Is it the same in the US as in Canada? As for the prices being stupid, indeed. I bought some at 10.15 on Monday :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I am pretty sure they are different for each company....not positive though. Altius usually releases results around September 10th ...so I am assuming they are in a black out period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Crazy times indeed: Altius Market cap: $300m Cash: $190m Alderon shares : $100m Royal Gold shares: $38m Total: $328m Everything else: $-28m It seems like the market is pricing Altius as if its stake in Alderon was going to zero. Meanwhile it prices Alderon as if development will continue. Something has to give... What I like is we get Voisey Bay royalty for free. This somewhere between 75-100M worth. I'm curoius to see what they can recuperate from the refinery project... 5-10M? I have not seen anybody discounting the ~5M$/year expense in General and administrative. Would it not more or less cancelled the Voisey Bay royalty ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsto Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I have not seen anybody discounting the ~5M$/year expense in General and administrative. Would it not more or less cancelled the Voisey Bay royalty ? Don't forget about interest on cash. I think that currently pays for about half the General and administrative. Conceptually, to be conservative, I think about the company as essentially being funded by the royalty and the interest on cash. Even if you cancel the voisey bay royalty out with the G&A it is still cheap. In my own spreadsheet I also haircut cash and subtract all the liabilities. But, that is just to look at the numbers in an extra conservative way. In reality, if you are investing in the company for the long run, you are implicitly assuming that management will be bringing significantly more than $5 million in added value per year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfinger Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I remember having read in a letter or article explaining the Voisey Bay royalty Dalton claiming that the company was essentially funded with it for the next 25 years or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Voisey Bay... is Royal gold's largest royalty and is trading there at aPE of above 60 right now...$37 million for less than 6 months will make it the largest contributor to Royal Gold's portfolio in this calender year... Now if you assumed Royal Gold wanted the rest of it from Altius, how much would they pay for it? If I were getting a multiple like like that I would think about paying a good amount of money to get it...half of their multiple is 30 times...which makes it worth well over $100 million....and immediately at a value in range $ 300 million to Royal Gold. Actually things get better for the value....As Vale is spending about $2.6 billion in capital at Voisey Bay.... http://www.vbnc.com/NickelProcessingPlantCareerInfo.asp As for admin expenses they were $2.5m, $4.8m in the previuos years...obviously in good years there are bonuses paid. Income 2 years ago was $4.5 m and this year the Royal Gold share appreciation will add $20m plus. We are not worried about the admin costs as you can see there is a ton of value in this company if you have a look. We think it is ridiculous what you could get for this company in an auction of their assets.... Royal Gold could buy the whole company for less than cash and get the entire purchase price out of their new multiple on Voisey Bay alone! Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrifty3000 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Alderon PEA released with a NPV of $3.07 billion: http://www.alderonmining.com/_resources/news/2011-09-08-NewsRelease.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Alderon PEA released with a NPV of $3.07 billion: http://www.alderonmining.com/_resources/news/2011-09-08-NewsRelease.pdf Would that make the NPV of the 3% royalty approx. 90 million? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 “We are very excited to see such a high NPV, especially since this PEA is only based on the Rose Central zone of the Kami Property. There is significant upside once we include North Rose and Mills Lake,” says Tayfun Eldem, President and CEO of Alderon. “These positive results allow us to move directly to the Feasibility Study phase and we expect that report by the third quarter of 2012.” The PEA demonstrates very attractive project economics. Based on a production rate of 8 million tonnes per year of iron ore concentrate at a grade of 65.5% iron and an iron recovery of 82.8%, the PEA shows a Net Present Value (“NPV”) of US$3.07 billion at a cash flow discount rate of 8%. The internal rate of return (“IRR”) for the project is 40.2%. Wonder what kind of NPV North Rose and Mills Lake have. Anywhere close to Rose Central, or just a small faction? I don't remember seeing anything preliminary on those, but maybe I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naboo Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 “We are very excited to see such a high NPV, especially since this PEA is only based on the Rose Central zone of the Kami Property. There is significant upside once we include North Rose and Mills Lake,” says Tayfun Eldem, President and CEO of Alderon. “These positive results allow us to move directly to the Feasibility Study phase and we expect that report by the third quarter of 2012.” The PEA demonstrates very attractive project economics. Based on a production rate of 8 million tonnes per year of iron ore concentrate at a grade of 65.5% iron and an iron recovery of 82.8%, the PEA shows a Net Present Value (“NPV”) of US$3.07 billion at a cash flow discount rate of 8%. The internal rate of return (“IRR”) for the project is 40.2%. Wonder what kind of NPV North Rose and Mills Lake have. Anywhere close to Rose Central, or just a small faction? I don't remember seeing anything preliminary on those, but maybe I missed it. "Alderon is presently exploring the Rose North deposit which is not developed sufficiently to be included in the PEA. As the Mills Lake deposit is anticipated to account for a much smaller portion of the overall resource, it has not been included in the PEA." As mentioned in the release, Mills Lake is ignored, but I want to know how small that is? (1M, 10M or 100M, or even 1B to be ignored). I am waiting for the number from North Rose too. Hope it could surprise us. Market has no reaction to this release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Market has no reaction to this release. Mr. Market is so strange sometimes. Alderon is barely up and Altius is actually down. I kind of expected it for ALS, but thought ADV would move more on this kind of news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naboo Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 "Alderon is presently exploring the Rose North deposit which is not developed sufficiently to be included in the PEA. As the Mills Lake deposit is anticipated to account for a much smaller portion of the overall resource, it has not been included in the PEA." As mentioned in the release, Mills Lake is ignored, but I want to know how small that is? (1M, 10M or 100M, or even 1B to be ignored). I am waiting for the number from North Rose too. Hope it could surprise us. Market has no reaction to this release. It seems like Mills Lake is not that small From their NI 43-101: Categorized Mineral Resource Estimate for Kami Iron Ore Project (Cutoff of 20% Tfe) Category Zone Tonnes (Million) TFe% magFe% hmFe% Mn% SiO2% Indicated Rose Central 376.1 29.8 18.6 8.3 1.56 44.9 Mills Lake 114.1 30.5 22.1 5.7 1.02 45.6 Inferred Rose Central 46.0 29.8 19.2 8.0 1.61 44.9 Mills Lake 71.9 30.7 22.2 6.0 1.05 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now