Jump to content

ALS.TO - Altius Minerals


Guest Dazel

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 7.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

 

 

Just to compare apples to apples...The former CEO of Alderon was referring to the rail and infrastructure for starting the mine in comparison to when Thompson started...they are geographically closer to the rail system.

 

who is better situated then Alderon in your opinion anyone?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://alderonmining.com/_resources/kami/Location_and_Infrastructure1.jpg

 

Not arguing with you as you know I own Altius....but IOC..a mine of 50 years (aahh the royalties Altius would have over 50 years!)?

 

The map above will show the other posters what we are talking about...by the way Alderon is closer to IOC than Thompson....for fun! Good company for neighbors and surrounding infrastructure..we will leave it at that.

 

Dazel.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5defb86a-e3a6-11e0-bd3d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1YWNE7jtV

 

Rio Tinto warns of slowdown in demand

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5defb86a-e3a6-11e0-bd3d-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1Ya56Q77u

 

Rio Tinto, one of the world’s largest natural resources companies, has warned that some of its customers were asking to delay shipments of metals, in a clear sign that the financial turmoil is starting to affect the commodities sector.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

http://www.mbironoreindex.com/

 

India is pushing for export tariffs which very positive for Canada.....and the spot price for iron ore has held despite a quiet market....steel production for August was up 9% year over year...that is about the only thing I have seen that is up year over year!

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-21/iron-ore-s-four-year-slide-hitting-mining-earnings-commodities.html

Iron Ore’s Longest Slide Since ’82 Threatens Mining Earnings: Commodities

 

I've seen some shoddy journalism and this ranks right up there.  "Reporting" on a predicted price drop four years out on projected numbers as if it's happened already - wow!  Is this a contrarian indicator?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.franco-nevada.com/files/Franco-Nevada_Lumina_Press_Release_0.pdf

 

this deal was announced yesterday....if these early stage royalties are worth $66m what are Altius royalties worth? Take out Voisey  as it is currently a producer and you have a lot of value that is free...and as we see above there are company buyers for these assets even in this crazy environment.

 

What would it be worth if they spun out the royalties into a separate company? remember that Royal Gold and Franco Nevada are getting 50 to 60 pe's on this stuff.

 

Franco-Nevada was part of the bidding process for IRC royalty and put a bid in for the assets that Royal Gold trumped.

 

Dazel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.mbironoreindex.com/

 

 

The price of iron ore is down...5.5% over the last couple of months and is still at $170 per ton.....

let s put that in perspective because these are real prices that are negotiated by buyers and sellers who mine and use the iron ore. These prices are not determined by futures traders "YET"...yes they should likely come down some more

 

Alderon's long term pricing for the their mine plan is $118 per ton...there is a good margin for error....and the costs of construction have just come down as well..(this month anyway!)

 

copper is down 28% in the same time period...

 

Dazel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks Dazel, good to see that iron ore seems to be holding up relatively well.

 

My ideal scenario is for the market to stay soft a while longer, allowing ALS to deploy cash in undervalued equities and royalties, but not so down that Alderon is put on hold. And then by the time Alderon is getting closer to shipping ore, things start to pick up again.. Best of both worlds :)

 

We'll see how it plays out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.altiusminerals.com/files/fs_1317325332.pdf

 

Here is the link from Altius...

 

$8m tax payment was a drag on cash and their share of alderon's loss was $1.3 million that flowed through...was the loss.

 

-Voisey Bay royalty stream was $1m for the quarter (double last year)...they said annualized will be $4 to $4.5 million

 

-they detail several projects...they have been busy...and are heavily marketing their iron ore holdings that are substantial...Rio Tinto has been drilling through their partnership agreement

 

-they have been searching for gold in the north west territories this summer...interesting

 

-should be a very interesting fall when all of the results of their work are released

 

Dazel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Rick Rule went on record this week that he was buying and was extremely excited about mining stocks. Altius is part of his and the other great investors (eric sprott is now partners with Rule) in the resource network. Rick Rule was part of the IRC deal that Altius did very well in. We expect to see Altius and Paul Van Eden to deploy some capital during this malaise. All of the above are the best in the business at these types of investments. Altius has the cash ready to take advantage of these prices. Their patience will pay off.

 

Dazel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm happy to have 12% of my portfolio in Altius, I don't know much about resources so I'm glad to delegate to them. It's a nice way to put some resources exposure below book value. Love the citation below.

 

When we enter into a direct project-level agreement or create an indirect equity interest around a generated project we put

heavy emphasis on the structuring of royalty interests that will reward us should the project reach development and

production. We variably refer to this as our “royalty creation” or “organic royalty” portfolio. Interestingly, this route works best

in strong resource development markets so acts as a natural hedge to the royalty acquisition strategy

 

BeerBaron

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After looking closer at Altius' financials it it appears they have at least trimmed Royal Gold prior to July 31st...if this is the case than they more than likely would have sold out of their position when it hit the $80's  in August. It looks like they would have left some money on the table at royal gold  but it also would have added to liquidity during the panic selling over the last couple of months...I am hopeful they (as well as Van Eden) did a lot of buying over the last month!! $200m and no debt puts them in about the best position of any company we see on a per share basis in this environment. We will likely see their merchant banking skills at work.

 

October will also bring color on NLRC as they had until now to look at other options for company before going back to bankruptcy court.

 

Dazel.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...