MrB Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Much obliged. I like the story, but as always I am looking for holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Mr.B, note 17 Royalty and investment and interest income combined $1.488m for the quarter and $3.605m for the 6 months. As you can see if you take $150m of the cash and return 10% a year from a long term royalty stream on top of the future major long term royalty streams coming on...it would get very interesting. We think that the other players and the investment community will take a run at altius before this happens but altius would be better off to not to take a buy out. As was the case with International Royalty Corp....we will see but we think that all stocks are going to see a lot buy out offers at these levels with the cost of debt so low to those that can access it and the fact hat corps like altius are getting zero yield on their access cash. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 http://www.miningweekly.com/article/paladin-gets-access-to-aurora-deposits-2011-12-15 JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) - ASX- and TSX-listed uranium miner Paladin Energy on Thursday rejoiced at news that the Nunatsiavut government had decided to lift the three-year moratorium on uranium mining, development and production on Labrador Inuit Lands. Paladin holds significant uranium assets through its wholly owned subsidiary Aurora Energy within the Central Mineral Belt of Labrador, in Eastern Canada, which includes a measured 15.1-million pound uranium oxide (U3O8) resource, 68.7-million pounds indicated resource, of U3O8, and a 53-million pounds inferred resource over six deposits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTE4NzI5fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1 Paladin energy acquired aurora at $1.90 a pound of uranium. This is exceptional for them but also for Altius because their cost to production becomes so low that the project becomes viable to Paladin immediately. It looks like they made an excellent purchase of these assets during the moratorium. We also now expect altius to to be doing more work on the uranium front with this ban lift. The price of uranium to us is a spring that has been coiled down and is ready to pop. We are playing it through altius...but we are tempted to buy U on the toronto stock exchange. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
link01 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 http://www.caseyresearch.com/nexTen.php?id=2 A good piece on Brian Dalton...for those who do not know Doug Casey there is a link below. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Casey Dazel. i've just gotten around to reading this thread. i've ignored it previously because, well, natural resource co's never really clicked for me or caught my fancy. but there's some good stuff here, thx especially to dazel. just curious if any of the other '10 to watch' ceo's & their co's are on your watchlist. for instance, sandstorm metals & energy is trading at a very low multiple to book right now, even lower than altius. the one negative i see with them is financing & dilution risk. they are very agressive dealmakers & issuers of stock. by contrast, altius seems much more patient & discerning with their capital. or do you think the sandstorm team just has better deal sourcing capacity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
link01 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 the big debate: deflation vs inflation.... i'm in the camp that believes deflationary pressures will outweigh inflationary ones in the nearer term, but i'm mindful of the fact that this stance could turn out to be wrong sooner than i'm prepared to see or admit it. pippa malmgren has a few provacative insights: "The US is Defaulting on its Debt As Well I have argued for some time that the US would default through haircuts at the local level (municipal defaults) and through inflation at the national level. In addition, austerity is making its way into the US debt picture but through local, not national, initiatives... The Federal Reserve remains on the increased inflation trajectory, in spite of their denials. ..And this is exactly why we see Chairman Bernanke making it crystal clear that the “Fed has latitude to set inflation goal”. You can be sure that the inflation goal will be higher than expected and that it will be raised over time. The greatest policy mistake now building in the system is this: policymakers will confuse the temporary fall in commodity prices with a permanent reduction of inflation pressures: China, India, Australia come to mind. I think the opposite will turn out to be true. The recent crisis caused commodity prices to fall somewhat but the production constraints are now worse than ever due to lack of bank lending and working capital. So, commodity prices jump back up again very fast. This means central banks especially in emerging markets may start easing way too soon. I bet inflation pressures worldwide are barely beginning. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 http://i.imgur.com/dUc1K.png English and Chinese. guess it shows who they've been talking to lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&id=19715&latest=1 One of the province's best known mining executives predicts more business deals with China in the coming years. Brian Dalton, President of Altius Minerals in St. John's, has spent four of the past fourteen months in China looking at opportunities for iron ore developments. Dalton says in China you would never know there are world economic problems as you don't see it or feel it when you are there. He believes China's and Newfoundland and Labrador's futures are intertwined and he sees numerous opportunities in the coming years. Dalton says the biggest growth of new mining companies in the world are from China and they are looking to invest internationally, especially in places like Newfoundland and Labrador, which has an abundance of mineral wealth. Altius, and its joint venture partners, will be spending close to $40-million next year on exploration, almost double what they spent this year. Altius has $185-million in the bank for investment opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Dalton has spent 4 months out of the last year in china. Their deal flow from this year has been significant despite the fact the market has ignored it. Their recent deal with century iron ore is an example of his work as they are backed by chinese interests...we would like to see more of the same for 2012. Here is our wish list for 2012: Alder on: we would like to see their stake sold to a chinese operator who is in a hurry to develop the property. We are not concerned about altius' selling price of their controlling position we see the future royalty as "huge" to the company. The developer and their time to production is key. This would move the stock significantly. We would rather see altius sell this stake and realize the future royalty than get taken out by someone wholly...we do not think that altius would get the premium they deserve. Cash: we want to see this money put into a strategic investment similar to the irc deal....we what a significant return on this money...there is plenty of opportunity as the sector has been killed and there are great opportunities...we would like to see them partner in a large deal...they being the aggregator and investing along side someone like Fairfax or Leucadia or Sprott (Rick rule)...we would also accept some leverage for the deal. Central mineral belt royalty: The market will realize that this future royalty is substantial....It would be interesting to see some discussion on what Paladin and Cameco might be doing in Labrador now that uranium moratorium has been lifted...the Hathor take over fight has made many take a look at where the uranium price is going....in 2007 when altius sold Aurora...it was $170 pound...$52 a pound now...no tsunami's! Cliffs: we would like to see more upside on the nickel and alloy side as far as exploration Century partnership: develop as planned and gain be interest of other major players... NLRC: while we do not expect anything here...we would like to see them find a resolution with SNC Lavalin that might create am opportunity down the road....the other refinery in Newfoundland is owned and run by Korean state interests that bought Harvest energy in 2009...it's a long shot but deal for something would be great! While the share price had a tough year like all commodity companies (even gold)...altius had a significant year of future development into a significant royalty company. Disclosure: we continue to buy...including today! Good luck in the new year! Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
link01 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 NLRC: while we do not expect anything here...we would like to see them find a resolution with SNC Lavalin that might create am opportunity down the road....the other refinery in Newfoundland is owned and run by Korean state interests that bought Harvest energy in 2009...it's a long shot but deal for something would be great! what happened there with NLRC? i'm still not sure i understand after reading thru some of the relevant links & documents via the ALS website. yea, NLRC was hit by the runaway freight train that was the 2008-2009 economic tsunami, but where was the supervisional influence & financial oversight by ALS considering their substantial interest? It seems NLRC basically spent & spent & spent them selves into a deep dark hole, completely oblivious to the imploding credit markets on which they were totally reliant for continued funding, & the brass at ALS were snoozing all the while this was unfolding as well. i didnt get the sense that mngt at ALS addressed that very openly at all. which is surprising considering that some analysts at the time thought that more than 50% of ALS's value resided in their NLRC interests at the time. and if ALS lacks the staff or financial acumen to guide or influence such major investees then it become even more incumbent on them to look to sell their stakes while retaining their royalty rights, doesnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 With China slow-down or outright recession, not sure if ALS is doing the right thing. I don't feel comfortable with Dalton's observation from the ground about China economy. If you are in Washington D.C or NY City, there is no recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Shaleb, China slow down...yes they have tried to slow down...why? Bubble if you read our financial times...but there is more to an economy than the stock market... China has a shortage of power everywhere....they have to regularly shut down the grid because they do not have the resources to full-fill their power needs...read Mark mobius and his take on china...he is on the ground there while chanos et all have never been there. Uranium-look at cameco's ceo's latest comments on china's nuclear plant plans...he says Japan was a not even a hiccup. Our news...is crash, depression, bubble, etc...that is because north America and Europe are old and are not Building ing anything...we are stuck in finical trickery to make money where as the developing world is building infrastructure for the future... China had record use of oil in November!!!! Do you wonder why oil is at $100? It is not us.... I have not seen that headline anywhere...only that they are "crashing". Alder on has a plan at $118 per ton of iron ore....$139 is just fine for their project. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Shaleb, On the other hand...for our business...which is financial..if altius were to go to auction tomorrow and sell off the company piece by piece we would double our money. So I can see how some investors would Want to see this rather than see how much china slows down. Fair enough. Maybe That is what they will do...or be forced to do...if that were to happen...I think you would see a splitting of the company...projects sold...royalties kept as the new altius. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Link01, You are correct...their plan has always been to sell their stakes and keep the royalties...we see NLRC as a major mistake for Altius. We think they got in over their head with Harry Dobson et all and thought they were bullet proof....their lack of clarity about the mistake is likely due to the SNC Lavalin litigation which effectively killed the project in its form of that time. The other suppliers agree to a standstill where SNC Lavalin took them to court. I have not seen or heard anything with regards to the Oct 2011 deadline for their settlement with SNC....hopefully they are negotiating something that benefits both parties. SNC Lavalin is an obvious partner as they have global scale.....a side note...the refinery would have been up and running in 2011! And we would never have invested in Altius because their share price would be too high! Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Dazel, hope you are right. A friend of mine who happens to be in China has mentioned that housing market is cooling in China and businesses are seeing a slowdown. Whether it lasts or not is a different question - hopefully not. If you look at this article, it seems China wants cheaper supplies of iron which they likely will get from ALS. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/china-seeks-cheaper-iron-ore-supplies/story-e6frg9df-1226128456943 On the other hand, developing world is more than China. So, there should be demand from rest of Asia/Africa which has all the issues you mentioned - chronic power shortage etc. However, China has building infrastructure since the 1980s, tearing up and rebuilding the same infrastructure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 According to wikipedia - China/Japan and Korea followed by U.S and Europe are the biggest consumers of iron ore. China is also the largest producer. Iron ore can go below $100 ( pre 2009 levels ) fairly easily if China slows down. China has become the manufacturer for the world but this could shift. It is not an impossible situation as more manufacturing is moving out of China because of cost - some is even coming back to the U.S or moving to other Asian countries already. It just doesnt have to be housing which has already slowed down. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_ore For ALS in particular, I am not looking for one year double or two year double. If played carefully, this could be a multi bagger. Obviously, a lot depends on management to have the patience and to make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Dazel, hope you are right. A friend of mine who happens to be in China has mentioned that housing market is cooling in China and businesses are seeing a slowdown. Whether it lasts or not is a different question - hopefully not. If you look at this article, it seems China wants cheaper supplies of iron which they likely will get from ALS. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/china-seeks-cheaper-iron-ore-supplies/story-e6frg9df-1226128456943 On the other hand, developing world is more than China. So, there should be demand from rest of Asia/Africa which has all the issues you mentioned - chronic power shortage etc. However, China has building infrastructure since the 1980s, tearing up and rebuilding the same infrastructure. I found this article particularly instructive on the possible China downturn, hopefully it hasn't been posted already: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136963/patrick-chovanec/chinas-real-estate-bubble-may-have-just-popped?cid=nlc-this_week_on_foreignaffairs_co-122211-chinas_real_estate_bubble_may_2-122211 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 What makes me comfortable with ALS is that even if commodities prices go down a lot, they'll be able to take advantage of it because of their huge cash pile and proven capital allocation skills. They don't have debt so even commodity Armageddon wouldn't be an existential risk (unless it lasts for decades). The worse that could happen would be for Alderon to unravel, Voise Bay to pay a lot less, and Paladin to stop developing. That would be really bad, but the cash on their balance sheet would still be worth par putting a floor on the share price (along with buybacks, most likely), and it would allow them to buy royalties and securities at very attractive prices, setting them up for the next up cycle. That's why I'm not too worried for the long-term. But short-term, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 What I'm really wondering is what would Alderon do if China had a slowdown right now. Would it really make them consider delaying or giving up on Kami, or would they think "well, by the time we ship in 2015, chances are they'll be out of the hole and iron ore prices will have recovered". Because it's doubtful that a Chinese slowdown of infrastructure buildup would last for years and years, IMO. The stock market could crash, but I doubt they'll stop building stuff that easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The Chinese stock market has already "crashed" in our terms...down 12% and 22% in the last 2 years...all being discussed is not new news. The big difference is that china is government run and they have the pocket book unlike the u.s and Europe to stimulate....they have to keep it going they cannot have social unrest in china...and their populace is getting used to the new way... Jeremy grantham has done a lot of work on commodities and feels as many that we are in a global shortage of everything...they peg the chance reversal of the trend in iron ore as the lowest probability of all commodities...can't remember the number but I believe it is 1000000 to 1. I hope he is right as well....we are only looking at keeping these levels not the $191 a ton we hit last february....the average price was $167 a ton last year and $144 for 2010. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It is true that the Chinese government has very deep pockets and can control the market to a great extent - I look them to stimulate again or increase imports or do both to placate all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-02/manufacturing-grows-in-india-china-as-most-of-europe-struggles-economy.html They may not need any stimulus as they continue to bump along....this all we need at altius.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 http://Uraniuminvestingnews.com/9989/cgnpc-extract-husab-uranium-namibia-ext-kah.html China is showing it's appetite for uranium quietly as well...altius is positioned to benefit here as well with the lift of the ban on uranium mining in the central belt. We think that this forgotten asset at altius will pay big dividends in the not too distant future. Actually if you look at it from the view of the Chinese...altius is a perfect play to get control of large resources in Newfoundland and Labrador...with the political backing that comes with altius..they have a friendly environment...as we are seeing they are having to bid against Rio Tinto et all. All over the world...Paladin paid .91 cents a pound for aurora..Rio Tinto paid $10 a pound for Hathor and the above bids show the Chinese are quite high as well...altius already partners with Rio Tinto in Newfoundland in iron ore projects...http://altiusminerals.com/files/PR1111-RT.pdf Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ALS Altius continues to shrink the float...daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ALS Altius continues to shrink the float...daily. By my count they've bought back about 200k shares in the past 6 month. (I could be wrong about that, though, as it was just quick back of the enveloppe math) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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