Liberty Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 http://www.labradorironore.com/Corporate-Information/default.aspx You can plug numbers in using Labrador iron ore royalty to get an idea of what Altius' royalty at Alderon could look like. As large as The iron ore company of Canada is they are producing 15m tonnes of ore right now (they are raising production) less than the 16m that Alderon is planning...we are using these numbers for comparability. Labador iron ore royalty has a 7% payout compared to Altius' 3% and they own 15% equity in the Iron ore company of Canada....their market cap is $2.3b and they do not have any other assets. Keep in mind that they have paid out $100's of millions of dollars in dividends already...$134m last year! So if I'm doing this right... "IOC's 2010 sales totalled 15.1 million tonnes comprised of 3.0 million tonnes of iron ore concentrate and 12.1 million tonnes of iron ore pellets. IOC generated revenues of $2,522 million in 2010 (2009 - $1,144 million). IOC sales traditionally are approximately 35% in North America, 35% in Europe, 25% in the Asia-Pacific region and minor amounts in other areas. " So if ADV had the same revenues of 2.5B, 3% GSR for altius would be about 75 million (I'm doing that right? GSR is calculated over revenue?). Very impressive. I guess it'll vary with the price of iron ore (f.ex. 2009 was 1.144B), but I was expecting something closer to 40-45m at recent prices. Since the 16m tons/year for Alderon won't happen for a while, the 8m tons/year should be about half that, or 37.5m. The beauty of a gross sales royalty is that operating costs don't matter too much. Of course you don't want a royalty on a high-cost producer that will shut down if spot prices go down, but it still gives you a lot more predictability than if you had a royalty based on income. I hated to leave you hanging Liberty. You can still send me a private message, y'know ;) It's not like I have enough capital to move this stock one way or the other, and I'm already one of the converts, so it would be more out of intellectual curiosity than to convince me to make a move :-X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I hated to leave you hanging Liberty. You can still send me a private message, y'know ;) It's not like I have enough capital to move this stock one way or the other, and I'm already one of the converts, so it would be more out of intellectual curiosity than to convince me to make a move :-X Come on share the tools and ideas please. ;) Value investing is a character game not a information one. I would like to thank you both for the contribution to this thread i learned a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 http://www.radio-canada.ca/emissions/bonjour_la_cote/2011-2012/chronique.asp?idChronique=203167 For those who understand French, here's a radio interview with Bernard Potvin of Alderon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Liberty, It is a moving target as you can see....but if you pick ranges within the numbers you will come with a low end and a high end...Labrador iron ore royalty helps as a guide....they are similar...you have to use them because TC1 did not have a royalty imbedded... Back out the royalty alone....low range high range...multiply it by the years of production...now that is one asset for Altius!! Their share of the stock right now is about $120m add it....and then pick ranges for the rest of the assets....you will be surprised when you add them all up! Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 http://www.mbironoreindex.com/ Iron ore pricing rising up to above $141/ tonne. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Altius-Continues-Advance-ccn-3438591380.html?x=0 These guys are good... Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Hey I am am going to the PDAC conference does anyone any question want me to ask the Alderon people ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX: ADV) (OTCQX: ALDFF) (“Alderon” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that its common shares have been approved for listing on the NYSE Amex. Alderon anticipates trading on the NYSE Amex exchange will begin on Friday, March 9, 2012 under the symbol “AXX”. The Company will continue to trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “ADV”. “This NYSE Amex listing represents another significant milestone in Alderon’s growth,” stated Mark Morabito, Alderon’s Executive Chairman. “The listing will provide greater trading accessibility for United States investors, is expected to enhance liquidity and will provide Alderon with exposure to a wider audience of investors.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 New analyst report on Alderon: http://www.grandich.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/NBF_DM12C02_E.pdf Alderon Iron Ore – In the Right Backyard: The Kami project's manageable size of eight million tonnes per year and favourable location close to existing infrastructure, combined with a management team with extensive iron ore experience, positions Alderon as a developer that could potentially advance to production for relatively lower capital and without the need of a partnership. Initiating coverage with an Outperform and $5.10 target price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
link01 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 i'm curious: would ALS.To be considered a PFIC for US investors? does this need to be bought in an IRA account to sidestep that? i havent seen this addressed here, so maybe you're all canucks here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call/march-2012/market-call-march-6-2012/#clip632694 Rick Rule"s top pick on BNN is Altius Minerals.....good interview...his admiration for Brian Dalton is pretty obvious. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Market-Call.aspx If you do not want to watch the video here are his other picks....I would strongly suggest watching both parts if you can on the BNN site as Rick Rule is an extremely intelligent investor with 30 years experience. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/altius-minerals-corporation-tsx-als-210000735.html No surprises...Voisey Bay royalty $1.2m for the quarter Example of underpricing of assets...they have cost of a little over $10m on the royalty (they paid $13m for it). They state they have $300m in assets...$10m is the royalty The Voisey royalty has 120 quarters ( 30 years) of royalties left....so what is that asset worth? It is also inflation protected...quite a bond considering yields these days. It will be happy bays when the Kami and then the aurora royalties kick in...but for now what is Voisey bay worth? So we look at buying these royalties for nothing basically...and we are extremely content that Altius is also buying them as they have spent over $2m. The longer this goes on the better...time is the friend of Altius. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Quiet is good guys....we only want to be on the front page once...Look at the press Viterra is getting for a possible bidding war! In two years I think my Viterra post got maybe 3 responses here on a value investing board!!... When you think about business you need to understand what the assets are worth to other businesses. Individual investors are driven by sentiment and the crowd..A good business is thinking about maximizing their assets everyday..not the value of their market caps...Is it cheaper to build? Is it cheaper to expand the workforce? How much will it cost to enter another country? And then they always ask the question. " would it be cheaper to buy out another business" and when it is...they do it...that simple. Boone Pickens famous line "it is cheaper to drill for oil on the New York stock Exchage than than anywhere else." is true right now and there is trillions of dollars on corporate balance sheets on the sideline... Altius is in the boring Viterra situation because of the fact no one knows them...Their assets are world class (not unlike Viterra) but their cash in the bank, no debt, and future cashflows make it an incredible business over the next few years unlike Viterra. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 I don't mind quiet either, as long as when there are news they are good :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 13, 2012 Share Posted March 13, 2012 Quiet is good guys....we only want to be on the front page once...Look at the press Viterra is getting for a possible bidding war! In two years I think my Viterra post got maybe 3 responses here on a value investing board!!... When you think about business you need to understand what the assets are worth to other businesses. Individual investors are driven by sentiment and the crowd..A good business is thinking about maximizing their assets everyday..not the value of their market caps...Is it cheaper to build? Is it cheaper to expand the workforce? How much will it cost to enter another country? And then they always ask the question. " would it be cheaper to buy out another business" and when it is...they do it...that simple. Boone Pickens famous line "it is cheaper to drill for oil on the New York stock Exchage than than anywhere else." is true right now and there is trillions of dollars on corporate balance sheets on the sideline... Altius is in the boring Viterra situation because of the fact no one knows them...Their assets are world class (not unlike Viterra) but their cash in the bank, no debt, and future cashflows make it an incredible business over the next few years unlike Viterra. Dazel. Dazel I will keep this in mind for my other investments. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvesting101 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I want to buy this stock in US. I see this is listed ATUSF and trades on OTC. Any online discount broker which will allow me to buy these type of securities? Also will I be liable to pay taxes in Canada if I get dividend or if I sell these shares or am I subjected taxes only in US as transaction is done on OTC exchange in US? I do not intend to sell these for sometime and it looks like these guys will not be paying out any dividend soon but I want to understand tax implications as well. I have recently started investing in US and hence do not have experience with different brokers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 You can buy it for free at wells Fargo is you have enough capital. Also TDAmeritrade will let you buy it. I think most discount brokers will actually. I hold it at Wells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 http://www.cbc.ca/labradormorning/episodes/2012/03/15/more-on-the-wetlands-in-labrador-west/ About ADV's recent meetings with locals. Interview with CEO during second part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 Shaleb, You are correct Altius is on the right path at $150....it makes them very very valuable with their iron ore holdings....but capital flows are also important over the next two years as their properties become closer to production... For example the PEA for Alderon is at $118 iron ore price....The $150 we are at now makes Alderon a huge economic success and altius' royalty payout high...there will be a lot of companies-investors chasing those economics with capital if it is available because there is virtually no yield out there...if a company were to leverage the Alderon project at these interest rates they would make a killing if the economics held...this is why Alderon is saying they could do off take agreements now but they want to wait so there is a bidding war. If we get a loosening of capital and the iron ore remains here Altius will hit a perfect storm...right place right time. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value-is-what-you-get Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 For example the PEA for Alderon is at $118 iron ore price....Dazel I read $115 in the PEA (page 1-15). To be clear though, this is not some sort of hurdle price under which things are not feasible, it is a number taken from long term iron ore price averages and at that level generates a 40.2% IRR with a 2.7 year payback of initial investment! So at $115 it's a home run. At an ongoing extraction cost before royalty of $44.87 (call it $50) any iron ore price above that is available for payback of initial capital. Now I don't think it's realistic to say anything above $50 is a winner because it's far less attractive with longer payback of course, but it's also very do-able with iron ore prices BELOW long-term averages, especially in our current low-cost capital environment. Of course with prices around $150 it's a no-brainer. "Altius will hit a perfect storm . . . right place right time" . . . again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 http://www.alderonironore.com/_resources/news/2012-03-21-NewsRelease.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 very interesting company.. but any near term catalysts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRK7 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 M&A activity in Labrador: Ridgemont to Acquire IronOne Inc. http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=49581494&qm_symbol=RDG Mark Morabito is Executive Chairman of Ridgemont and also Executive Chairman of Alderon Iron Ore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals « Reply #563 on: Today at 07:14:02 AM » Quote very interesting company.. but any near term catalysts? The feasibility study for Alderon will show incredibly good economics...remember the PEA was only for half the resource....the NPV will be in the range of $6 billion...this will be out in the next 3 or 4 months we think....with that comes the bids for he offtake iron ore and bidding likely on Alderon it's self if it does not become more valuable in the market... More importantly when investors start taking Alderon seriously it will lead them to altius..the Alderon royalty is massive, and other iron ore properties...and then of course their other assets....we think they will do something very intelligent with their cash as well...these guys are not known...they will be. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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