value-is-what-you-get Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 What am I missing here - don't private placements normally get priced at around or a slight discount to market price? Is it possible the largest steel producer in China and second largest in the world have their numbers wrong? ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Interview with Alderon CEO by Grandich: http://www.grandich.com/2012/05/grandich-client-alderon-iron-ore-4/ Regarding the Hebei investment, I don't understand the phrase, "if the stock price rose or fell between announcement of the deal and closing a contractual mechanism is in place to shift allocation as between the stock price and the project interest." That implies to me the terms can change, but then he proceeds to say the deal will go ahead as announced. --- Q- The share price for Alderon has come off from the $3.42 close at the time of the Hebei announcement. Is there any risk the deal won’t close? “ The real deal we have with Hebei is for C$194m for 19.9% of the corporate equity and 25% of the project. Our Chairman Mark Morabito was alive to the market volatility issue at the time the deal was being constructed and he convinced Hebei to agree to the C$194m price with the understanding that if the stock price rose or fell between announcement of the deal and closing, a contractual mechanism is in place to shift allocation as between the stock price and the project interest. So, the short answer to your question is that market volatility was considered and factored into the negotiations and both sides are comfortable with the outcome. Look at today’s news release on Liberty Metals and Mining firming up their C$13m commitment alongside Hebei for $13M and you get a strong indication this deal is going ahead as originally announced. --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 What am I missing here - don't private placements normally get priced at around or a slight discount to market price? Is it possible the largest steel producer in China and second largest in the world have their numbers wrong? ;D I'm not 100% sure, but I think Liberty group just got the same price as Hebei, which was exactly 3.42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Interview with Alderon CEO by Grandich: http://www.grandich.com/2012/05/grandich-client-alderon-iron-ore-4/ Regarding the Hebei investment, I don't understand the phrase, "if the stock price rose or fell between announcement of the deal and closing a contractual mechanism is in place to shift allocation as between the stock price and the project interest." That implies to me the terms can change, but then he proceeds to say the deal will go ahead as announced. --- Q- The share price for Alderon has come off from the $3.42 close at the time of the Hebei announcement. Is there any risk the deal won’t close? “ The real deal we have with Hebei is for C$194m for 19.9% of the corporate equity and 25% of the project. Our Chairman Mark Morabito was alive to the market volatility issue at the time the deal was being constructed and he convinced Hebei to agree to the C$194m price with the understanding that if the stock price rose or fell between announcement of the deal and closing, a contractual mechanism is in place to shift allocation as between the stock price and the project interest. So, the short answer to your question is that market volatility was considered and factored into the negotiations and both sides are comfortable with the outcome. Look at today’s news release on Liberty Metals and Mining firming up their C$13m commitment alongside Hebei for $13M and you get a strong indication this deal is going ahead as originally announced. --- After looking at this again, maybe what he's saying is that Hebei buys 19.9% of the equity, but gets not 19.9%, but 25% of the Kami project. So there's a built in discount to offset market volatility. Just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I know the world is ending if you watch tv or read anything....but has anyone seen the price of iron ore rise for the third day in a row...we are sitting at $135 on large actual transaction volumes even though the world is ending!? Imagine for second that china was not tanking, the euro imploding and the US ready to fall off the fiscal cliff? The Alderon deal is a long term deal....the next step in the deal is feasibility study...then the money is paid...once these events happen it will not be $3.42.... It will be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Alderon/Hebei subscription agreement attached. They needed the lawyers for this one, long document. Article on Alderon's "all star" team in The Business Post: http://www.thebusinesspost.ca/usr/main/docs/24/Vol6issue8.pdfSubscriptionAgreementRedacted.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LTVALUE Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I have been following this forum for some time. Great posts! Altius has posted a presentation by Brian Dalton in Europe http://altiusminerals.com/uploads/europe-2012-website.pdf Slide 4: Pending agreement on Snelgrove Lake and a significant exploration alliance in Quebec anticipated Cheers!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I have been following this forum for some time. Great posts! Altius has posted a presentation by Brian Dalton in Europe http://altiusminerals.com/uploads/europe-2012-website.pdf Slide 4: Pending agreement on Snelgrove Lake and a significant exploration alliance in Quebec anticipated Cheers!! Welcome to the board, thanks for posting the presentation! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Thanks for linking to that new presentation. I noticed cash has gone from $173m as of 1/31/12 (per the last quarterly report) to $162m in the new Europe presentation. Any thoughts on what accounts for the reduction in cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Very much hoping they are accumulating an investment for the fall in cash....they do not need to spend otherwise....Voisey bay royalty has been good as per royal gold's share of the royalty distribution this quarter...around $4m annualized. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naboo Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Alderon/Hebei subscription agreement attached. They needed the lawyers for this one, long document. Article on Alderon's "all star" team in The Business Post: http://www.thebusinesspost.ca/usr/main/docs/24/Vol6issue8.pdf The agreement is subject to approval, so it is not a done deal. Any chance that could be cancelled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Thanks for linking to that new presentation. I noticed cash has gone from $173m as of 1/31/12 (per the last quarterly report) to $162m in the new Europe presentation. Any thoughts on what accounts for the reduction in cash? Share repurchase? (less shares outstanding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Naboo, It could be cancelled.....we looked at this another way recently....why would Rio Tinto not come in and buy out the whole thing at these prices? I mean really. Buy out a Altius at 50% premium...you get a majority stake in Alderon...basically for free because of their cash and Alderon shares....then you only need to pay another $50 m to control Alderon... You get all of Altius projects including the one you know best which you are partnering with them now....and you become the largest land holder of iron ore properties in Labrador! They have been doing business there for over 50 years why not...it is basically free. We do not want this to happen because it will undervalue the assets...but this is what businesses do.... So Naboo....this is also a possibility at these ridiculous prices....so there is risk to both sides in a deal not being fully completed. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Iron ore prices up again today. China stock market up everyday this week....this is very different then the last year and half where china was tightening....they are up over 12% this year....the market is looking ahead as it punished them while they tightened...they were down big last year....as were all commodities. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Dazel, Are the cash in USD or CDN? 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-31/mittal-price-squeeze-in-960-billion-steelmaking-industry.html This was posted in the posco thread but it contains a lot that it interesting about iron ore producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Cash is mostly cdn government paper....last I checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/03/canada-column-markets-idUSL1E8GH3S020120603?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector&rpc=43 I would think that Altius is busy here as well.. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoeless Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Some discussion of iron-ore, Fortescue and mention of Alderon: http://brontecapital.blogspot.co.il/2012/06/how-business-decisions-are-made-in-boom.html Probably belongs in the LUK thread but iron ore seems to be mentioned here more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Some discussion of iron-ore, Fortescue and mention of Alderon: http://brontecapital.blogspot.co.il/2012/06/how-business-decisions-are-made-in-boom.html Probably belongs in the LUK thread but iron ore seems to be mentioned here more often There sure is no love for ADV in there. Thanks for posting, good to hear some contrary opinion even if I can't say I'm very convinced by what they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value-is-what-you-get Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 $110 iron ore prices may make Alderon borderline viable?? I wish he'd made that statement in the beginning so I couldve stopped reading sooner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Really John Hempton from Bronte Capital! He helped us out big time in Fairfax with his absolute nonsense his short friends gang got killed shorting Fairfax and are still being sued....i have noticed interesting trading patterns in the illiquid axx shares....looks like John and his gang are up to their old tricks...we will let management know who they are dealing with. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Please look up the threads on John Hempton and Bronte capital...for those on this thread who do not know him or what he has been doing for the last decade have a look....he is the biggest slim ball around. Shoeless thank you very much for the post....it is likely that he and his gang are up to their old naked short tricks.....the biggest clue is the cdn and u.s exchange....as you will remember Fairfax left the NYSE after the dust settled with their fight against naked shorting. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 New release by ADV: http://www.alderonironore.com/_resources/news/ADVNR20120605.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Liberty, I agree...the longer term...brings Great gains when shorts are wrong...I do not want to sound off the alarm bells... Those that were around for The Fairfax debacle say some crazy shit! The good news is that many fortunes were made on this board. If investors are prepared for a short attack they will do well...they have to understand the assets they own...however....as was the case with Fairfax when a $1.3 b company dropped 45% in minutes...it tests your metal. The good thing is that Fairfax is now worth over $8b Dazel Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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