craigatk Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 The new presentation that was on their webpage has been removed. The old one is in again? I noticed that too some days ago. Strange. Maybe they put out some info that was still not for the public eye? ;) I think it's because it was the one that had details on their Chinese partners for the Julienne Lake Alliance? According to this article: http://www.thetelegram.com/Business/2014-04-17/article-3692289/Julienne-Lake-Alliance-remains-partly-in-the-shadows/1, Brian Dalton declined to identify his Chinese partners so probably there is an NDA in place that somebody accidentally violated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRK7 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Capital Power reported its quarterly results this morning. Altius is mentioned a couple of times in the press release; nothing unexpected, but it’s nice to see indications that the royalty agreements are seemingly progressing as planned: "We are pleased to welcome our new joint venture partners, Westmoreland Coal Company (Westmoreland) and Altius Minerals Corporation, on the Genesee coal mine as part of Westmoreland's recent acquisition of Prairie Mines & Minerals Royalty Ltd.'s coal operations. “ ...AND... “In connection with the acquisition by Westmoreland Coal Company (Westmoreland) of PMRL and the acquisition by Altius Minerals Corporation (Altius) of the royalty assets of PMRL, the Genesee Coal Mine Agreements and certain related agreements have, amongst other things, been amended to: (a) confirm the acquisitions by Westmoreland and Altius; and (b) provide for certain amendments to the Genesee Coal Mine Agreements.” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/capital-power-reports-first-quarter-2014-results-2014-04-25-817328 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Glenn is out: https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/04/25/closed-my-altius-minerals-position/ I find it perplexing, right before the good news are very likely about to roll in, but it's in character for him, always very skeptical an cautious. Time will tell who is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Glenn is out: https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/04/25/closed-my-altius-minerals-position/ I find it perplexing, right before the good news are very likely about to roll in, but it's in character for him, always very skeptical an cautious. Time will tell who is right. Well it would make sense to sell Altius for other opportunities out there. Altius is vaguely like Liberty Media (LMCA). - Both have superstar CEOs. - Both are mostly a pile of assets. - LMCA is buying back shares, Altius is not. - LMCA has better assets in my opinion. Time is on Liberty's side, while it is the enemy of Alderon shareholders. Alderon shareholders, if they are rational, will want to see Kami monetized as quickly as possible because Alderon burns through cash. *Obviously LMCA is not a mining company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Well it would make sense to sell Altius for other opportunities out there. Altius is vaguely like Liberty Media (LMCA). - Both have superstar CEOs. - Both are mostly a pile of assets. - LMCA is buying back shares, Altius is not. - LMCA has better assets in my opinion. Time is on Liberty's side, while it is the enemy of Alderon shareholders. Alderon shareholders, if they are rational, will want to see Kami monetized as quickly as possible because Alderon burns through cash. *Obviously LMCA is not a mining company. I think Altius isn't buying back shares because, among other things, it just bought a bunch of royalties and assets and needs to conserve its cash to pay for those. I see both LMCA and Altius as platforms that should be able to create lots of value for the long term. I don't intend to sell either even if they appear close to fairly valued because real IV is a moving target and hard to estimate, and once you get off the bus it might be hard to get back in (where do you think the stock will be if there's a positive announcement on Kami and/or JL?). ALS might be less undervalued now than it was recently, but a lot of uncertainty is also lifting, which changes the profile. I still think it's undervalued and should provide nice returns for years to come, and I'm not as bearish as you on Kami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 There are times you just have to grab the bull, & run with it. Yes you could get hurt; so don't do it often, & not unless the odds seem heavily in your favour ... but ultimately if you don't have the risk tolerance, you should not be here. You have to march to your own drum. Obviously we hope he is wrong, but good on him for the courage to stand by his convictions. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Well it would make sense to sell Altius for other opportunities out there. Altius is vaguely like Liberty Media (LMCA). - Both have superstar CEOs. - Both are mostly a pile of assets. - LMCA is buying back shares, Altius is not. - LMCA has better assets in my opinion. Time is on Liberty's side, while it is the enemy of Alderon shareholders. Alderon shareholders, if they are rational, will want to see Kami monetized as quickly as possible because Alderon burns through cash. *Obviously LMCA is not a mining company. Why do you think Dalton is a superstar CEO? Actually he isn't even known to most of the resource investors. Just because this forum thinks he is a great talent and some very astute resource investors doesn't make him a superstar. If you are looking for a superstar, think Rob McEwen, Ross Beaty etc. For those people you pay a huge premium. Mr. Daltons work isn't broadly appreciated, believe me. As for the buyback... If they still had the cash, they probably would buy back shares after the Sherritt deal closes. But they'll have no cash + some debt to pay down first. ALS said many times that they think a buyback is more tax efficient than dividends. Still they'll pay a dividend as investors demand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 By superstar I mean that he has a lot of skill in generating returns for shareholders. I think he has more skill than McEwen and Beaty. I honestly don't know what will happen with Kami. I know I can't value it that accurately. I think it's rational to put capital into a cheaper stock that's easier to value. Going long mining stocks is a brutally difficult game (harder than figuring out LMCA) and I don't feel like playing it unless there is a reasonable margin of safety. *I'd rather be long Altius than short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 By superstar I mean that he has a lot of skill in generating returns for shareholders. I think he has more skill than McEwen and Beaty. I honestly don't know what will happen with Kami. I know I can't value it that accurately. I think it's rational to put capital into a cheaper stock that's easier to value. Going long mining stocks is a brutally difficult game (harder than figuring out LMCA) and I don't feel like playing it unless there is a reasonable margin of safety. *I'd rather be long Altius than short. I can accept that argument. I don't agree, but I still respect it. I hope you made a good return on your investment in ALS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Cheers Trap. It has been a good ride appreciate your comments...I will quote Mr. Fisher for you again when we are at $25. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Hi ItsAValueTrap! Have you read my comment on the VRX thread? Should it really be “all, or nothing at all!”?! Is it wise to invest that way? If you like LMCA more than ALS right now, well then sell some ALS and add to your LMCA position… I can understand that! But to get out of ALS completely?! Why? I don’t understand… ??? Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Atlius' intrinsic value is highly sensitive to whether or not Kami gets built. I think that Kami is a marginal project and therefore incredibly difficult to figure out. Small errors make huge differences in Kami's economics. When iron ore prices were higher and Altius shares below $10, I was willing to speculate. Now I don't feel comfortable that there is a margin to safety. 2- Now that I understand mining... I know that it is unlikely that I will ever be a great mining investor. I don't have the technical expertise and I don't have access to technical data. Somebody like Norman Keevil of Teck Resources does. (Keevil is no longer the CEO of Teck but the chairman.) I know I'm not good at figuring out Kami's economics accurately. 3- For whatever reason (greed? fear?) the long side of my portfolio is always highly concentrated in a few positions. --- If Kami works out and other things go right for Altius... Altius could definitely go higher than $25. (Dazel... maybe you need to dream bigger. ;) ) It's just that the expected return is hard to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 IAVT, I've been tempted of late to partner with Malone as well, though haven't due to Altius position and down payment on my giant hybrid earth mover. Tough to see you doing poorly with LMCA--all the best there. Please stick around as I've always appreciated your comments even though or, I suppose especially because my perspective on the risk/reward here is different from yours, I think. Stick with what works for you. As the classic t-shirt says: "Always be yourself. Unless you can be batman. Then, always be batman." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Trap, FWIW you might want to look at probability weighting expected outcomes for a given position, to come up with an idea as to where the numbers are clustering. It removes the timing, & the accuracy of the numbers constraints; to give you just direction. MOS you create yourself, via hedging through active sale & repurchase of the underlying. Lower weights for the higher valuations (countering optimism), reverse for the lower valuations. Compare quarter over quarter for direction. The 100% hedge is a 50% sale of the underlying. Worst case; the puppy runs up the day after you sell it, but at least you still participate. If the puppy keeps running - simply sell the remaining 50% once the momentum slows - & if the thesis still holds; just buy it back later after the enthusiasm wanes. Your MOS is the round-trip gain on the synthetic short. Took us years to learn the trick ;) SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Well it would make sense to sell Altius for other opportunities out there You might want to look at Barrick/Newmont, & use options ... With so much testosterone in the mix, drama is pretty much assured on the way in, post announcement, & in the subsequent amalgamation. All divas get old, & they all eventually get a gun put to their head to leave the stage. And if ALS goes to $25 ... you are going to get a lot more than 1 share of Barrick per share of ALS. The MOS is your nimbleness, your ability to fund the Barrick position with primarily house money, & a pile of producing & low cost gold assets. Gotta love drama .... SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Well Itsavaluetrap is right when it comes to Kami and that a lot is riding on this one. A year ago that was still the same but the price per share was 30 % less which gave us all a cushion in case the mine wouldn´t become developed. How is the situation today? In todays share price I would actually say we have included a bit of Kami. The royalty deal is valued to about 10 CAD per share. It might be valued more in a year but for now that is what we have. The other things excluding Kami I could value to approximately 3 CAD which means we have an additional 2,5 CAD worth of value when it comes to Kami and Julienne lake. The full value of these we all know is large, very large. Phase one of Kami is in the range of 8-10 CAD, phase 2 16-20 CAD and Julienne lake more than 20 CAD per share. Kami has since a year back passed many crucial steps. It is depending on the Chinese as almost all industries are these days and I think the possiblities for construction has indeed increased a lot. One concern is of course financing which is the biggest and most crucial part. Since everyone (not me) think that we will have iron ore prices in the range of 80-100 in a few years Alderon/Altius really need the Chinese for this one. I doubt any other bank will take this risk now. But I am sure the Chinese will go for this one. The deal that we are expecting might of course not be so beneficial as we think. It would not surprise me if Altius sell their part of Alderon for 2 CAD per share thus not making any profit. It would not surprise me either if that part is bought by Wuhan Steel which need to get going in order to have money to start to develop futher north where infrastructure is less abundant. (Their main ore Sunny lake is about 19 times bigger than Kami but located very much to the north). So to have 2,5 CAD valued for Kami in todays share price of Altius is ok I think. Should it be 5 CAD or bigger? At this stage I doubt it. We need to wait for the financing for that. Julienne lake, the real deal of Altius projects and also my favourite, have come a long way of a deal I think. It should not be valued anything as it is now but if accepted and pre-feasibilty stage starts then of course some value should be added to this. We know now which Chinese companies are involved and I am specially happy about the Wuhan steel. If Altius play the cards right for this one they can hardly fail. So what can we expect the following week? Altius now need to finance 280 Million which is a lot of money. Depending on the structure of that deal we will either stay at this price range (15-16 CAD) or if considered bad maybe drop 1-2 CAD. So in a way it could be good to hedge a bit and sell some of your shares if you want to do some trading. If Kami cannot get a deal I do think we will see prices in the 10 CAD range. I would of course lose what I have gained so far and Altius would have lost a huge profit maker. But in order not to pay taxes I keep this one long. I think the potential for further increase in share price is bigger than the other way around. They have the momentum going for them and that is very important. The following triggers for this year will be: Kami finiancing and start production (maybe later than expected) Julienne lake project and start pre. feasibility More info on CDP and what can be done there. My share price bet for 2014-12-31 is 20 CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 We would put it to you that few dispute this is a very different company with the royalties deal done; so any nervousness really amounts to whether you think the deal will get done or not, & what you think that deal might look like. Not really any different to what most brides, world over, probably experience shortly before their wedding day. There have been multiple strong hints that ability to raise the funds is not really an issue for ALS; & that straight debt, convertible debt, & an asset sale are part of the package. We know the asset sale is not JL. We know there is intent to spin out JL on conclusion of negotiation, & there will be no cash proceeds. We know there are additional CDP royalties, & that ALS will be immediately profitable. Anything beyond this is speculation, & history is not a good indicator ... every bride knows that the courting groom is not the same as the married husband, one day after the event. Yet millions of brides, every year, take the leap. No different to todays ALS shareholder. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Valuation metrics for royalty companies are different because it is the best business in the world. Altius is "not" a royalty company until the PMRL deals is done....they have been on the verge to becoming part of the royalty group but in reality they were not there. When the deal closes they become one of a handful of the worlds great companies. No one here would pay up for Franco Nevada etc...40 PE's...there is a reason that royalty companies demand huge multiples because they deserve them. Altius will be repriced as Royalty company....with an extremely positive royalty pipeline....and most here will sell after the rise because "value" guys are used to holding bucks for 40 cents....royalty companies are usually always too expensive for our liking. Altius will move from a value play to a high multiple Global Royalty company that will show quarterly and yearly earnings jumps that will be worthy of the market and it's participants taking notice. That means institutional money....and there just are not very many sellers in a tightly held smaller float company. The rise could be alarmingly quick.... Enjoy the ride. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Ok, which one of you started buying again today? Raise your hand. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.als/altius-minerals-corporation?postid=22497320 Thoughts on the AngloAmerican development discussed in the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Ok, which one of you started buying again today? Raise your hand. :) Fortunately I have a whole whole position and will just enjoy the ride from here on. Looks as if someone wants to be in before the deal closes, although the volume is miniscule in $ terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Ok, which one of you started buying again today? Raise your hand. :) The share price is up. So clearly it wasn't me. Nice little bump but I'm waiting for Dazel's "alarmingly quick" stock price rise. Not sure how fast and steep that rise would have to be to alarm me, but I'd like to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 trading halted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRK7 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 trading halted yep, they've filed a short-form prospectus to offer $65M in common shares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 trading halted yep, they've filed a short-form prospectus to offer $65M in common shares Where did you find this info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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