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Guest Dazel

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sorry haven't posted or read in a while, so it might've been talked about:

is there a reason to issue stock just before kami gets all the financing etc it needs?

 

Well, I am not against the use of debt, even a considerable amount of debt, if you use it to purchase some assets which already generate steady and safe cash flow, abundantly above the interests you must pay on that debt.

The CDP, though, do not generate cash flow yet. And they have spent $42 million to buy it. Personally, I think it will be a great source of growth in the future… but of what will happen in the future you can never be 100% sure…

Therefore, though some people think they have made a mistake choosing a mix of debt and equity, to finance the “Prairies Royalties” and the CDP acquisition, instead of all debt, I wouldn’t be so sure…

 

Gio

 

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Guest Dazel

http://ecowatch.com/2014/05/14/germany-record-setting-renewables/

 

And then

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-14/coal-rises-vampire-like-as-german-utilities-seek-survival.html

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e6470600-77bf-11e3-807e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz33US1G1Wb

 

It seems the "cleanest country" on earth is ramping up coal use....What is wrong with The headlines? Political jargon....we will see clean coal soon.

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http://ecowatch.com/2014/05/14/germany-record-setting-renewables/

 

And then

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-14/coal-rises-vampire-like-as-german-utilities-seek-survival.html

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e6470600-77bf-11e3-807e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz33US1G1Wb

 

It seems the "cleanest country" on earth is ramping up coal use....What is wrong with The headlines? Political jargon....we will see clean coal soon.

 

Yup you will see lots of this in the future. Even in the US. People (politicians) saying you need to have wind and solar power but the reality showing something completely different. The energy equation does not work out and that is a fact. Germany could lower coal usage if they only turned to nuclear but those that are opposing coal are also the ones opposing nuclear. Ignorant people.

 

But more efficient coal power plants are on the way. Specially in China. I think I read somewhere that they are building around 50 new ones over there. Also in US they are currently constructing 20 new ones.

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The risk is that Obama uses this to pressure Canada on greenhouse gases in exchange for Keystone approval.

 

It would be a rational decision for Alberta to shut down every coal fired power plant (over say 3-4 years) in exchange for Keystone approval, as our excess profits from cheaper transportation would pay for a whole new power grid. That would obviously be very bad for ALS.

 

I'm not saying that's a likely scenario, but an increase to AB's $20 price for carbon is probably/possible in exchange for pipelines, which would hurt the prospects for coal generation.

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The risk is that Obama uses this to pressure Canada on greenhouse gases in exchange for Keystone approval.

 

It would be a rational decision for Alberta to shut down every coal fired power plant (over say 3-4 years) in exchange for Keystone approval, as our excess profits from cheaper transportation would pay for a whole new power grid. That would obviously be very bad for ALS.

 

I'm not saying that's a likely scenario, but an increase to AB's $20 price for carbon is probably/possible in exchange for pipelines, which would hurt the prospects for coal generation.

 

You see the risk ALS has overpaid for the “Prairies Royalties” and the CDP?

 

Gio

 

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Guest Dazel

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/rio-tinto-completes-1bn-clermont-sale-glencore-takes-over-operations-2014-06-02

 

 

This is a billion dollar coal deal...Glencore is buying from RIo and Mick Davis (Glencore-xstrata) wants To build his new Mining empire around BHP's coal assets....

 

They are doing this for a reason...they see value in coal... as Altius has.

 

 

 

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So every one is turning coal its back. We will see.

 

Fast facts

 

60% growth

Global coal consumption grew from 4,762 million tonnes in 2000 up to 7,697 million tonnes in 2012. This is 60% growth, or 4% average growth per year.

 

+150 MW/day

In the period from 2005 to 2012, China installed more than 150 MW of coal power generation capacity every day.

 

Coal currently provides 40% of the world’s electricity needs. It is the second source of primary energy in the world after oil, and the first source of electricity generation. Since the beginning of the 21st century, it has been the fastest-growing global energy source. The last decade’s growth in coal use has been driven by the economic growth of developing economies, mainly China.

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The question is if the share price drop is attributable to the coal news or other things. Altius needs now to prove to everyone that a deal can come out of the CDP. I am convinced this is the case and I see china as a potential buyer of both potash and coal. Meanwhile everything is advancing as it should. Scary news are good for us. Bargain price again.

 

Will add as soon as money is in the bank

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You see the risk ALS has overpaid for the “Prairies Royalties” and the CDP?

 

Gio

 

No, I think its more likely they got a bargain price.

 

However, a change in coal/greenhouse gas policy that reduces coal power production in Alberta would reduce the value of the royalties. I think its unlikely to impair it below what they paid, but it would still be a negative.

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Date            Open   High     Low      Close   Volume  Chg      % Chg

 

06/03/2014 $12.51 $12.89 $12.30 $12.87 131,031 $0.35 2.80%

06/02/2014 $12.82 $12.82 $12.52 $12.55 86,816 -$0.28 -2.18%

05/30/2014 $13.01 $13.02 $12.75 $12.83 171,856 -$0.18 -1.38%

05/29/2014 $13.25 $13.27 $12.84 $13.01 203,174 -$0.24 -1.81%

05/28/2014 $13.54 $13.54 $13.20 $13.25 108,990 -$0.09 -0.67%

05/27/2014 $13.11 $13.43 $13.10 $13.34 99,114 $0.25 1.91%

05/26/2014 $13.02 $13.18 $13.02 $13.09 8,229 $0.00 0.00%

05/23/2014 $13.30 $13.40 $13.04 $13.09 60,370 -$0.26 -1.95%

05/22/2014 $13.15 $13.38 $13.14 $13.35 69,703 $0.23 1.75%

05/21/2014 $13.14 $13.28 $13.10 $13.12 83,240 -$0.02 -0.15%

05/20/2014 $13.45 $13.68 $13.14 $13.14 108,421 -$0.26 -1.94%

05/16/2014 $13.61 $13.70 $13.40 $13.40 45,127 -$0.19 -1.40%

05/15/2014 $13.94 $13.94 $13.59 $13.59 74,524 -$0.36 -2.58%

05/14/2014 $13.95 $13.95 $13.90 $13.95 65,444 $0.00 0.00%

05/13/2014 $13.97 $14.00 $13.90 $13.95 68,834 -$0.01 -0.04%

05/12/2014 $14.00 $14.00 $13.90 $13.96 52,780 -$0.05 -0.32%

05/09/2014 $14.08 $14.08 $13.90 $14.00 134,863 -$0.06 -0.43%

05/08/2014 $14.04 $14.08 $14.00 $14.06 59,115 -$0.02 -0.14%

05/07/2014 $14.05 $14.17 $14.00 $14.08 71,213 $0.03 0.21%

05/06/2014 $14.35 $14.38 $13.99 $14.05 234,905 -$0.30 -2.09%

05/05/2014 $14.40 $14.40 $14.30 $14.35 95,725 -$0.05 -0.35%

05/02/2014 $14.20 $14.49 $14.15 $14.40 129,931 $0.31 2.20%

05/01/2014 $14.15 $14.35 $14.03 $14.09 440,095 -$0.31 -2.15%

04/30/2014 $15.09 $15.60 $14.33 $14.40 397,620 -$0.69 -4.57%

04/29/2014 $16.14 $16.14 $15.00 $15.09 347,907 -$1.36 -8.27%

04/28/2014 $15.50 $16.45 $15.48 $16.45 98,223 $0.99 6.40%

                                                  3,537,568

 

 

We're getting close to 4,000,000 shares traded since the shares were offered.

 

 

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Am taking another look through the financials before adding again, which would likely take me to a full/max position size. (Just behind Clarke, currently my largest position). I came across this:

 

A subsidiary of the Corporation, 2260761 Ontario Incorporated (“2260761”), holds a 23.9% (April 30,

2013 - 24.8%) interest in Sparkfly Inc. (“Sparkfly”), a private Georgia corporation that operates an

innovative promotions and rewards platform integrated with retail point of sale systems.

 

Does anyone know where/how/why they ended up with this position? I'm scared of situations where management thinks they have been successful in one field and tries to diversify into an unrelated field.

 

If they got this position in a re-org of a failed mining company or something then fine, but if they're making tech investments that worries me. It's obviously immaterial in size, but potentially concerning directionally.

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I would say it is already calculated with. New plants will be gas rather than coal (see maxim power).The mines that Altius has will last until those years they are caculated with. Probably in 8-10 years they will see that gas prices are much higher which means they will shift to coal again. Cheap energy is what has given the western world the way we live now (holidays etc) so that will always come first. Energy return on energy invested.

 

40-50 % of the total energy is a huge amount. Try to shift to anotherenergy source will take a long time. Especially if that energy source is quite scarce as it is  for example gas with 58 years to go (at 27 % of total energy). If gas will take over most of those 40 % than we are very likely to see higher gas prices that is for sure. Interesting times.

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Am taking another look through the financials before adding again, which would likely take me to a full/max position size. (Just behind Clarke, currently my largest position). I came across this:

 

A subsidiary of the Corporation, 2260761 Ontario Incorporated (“2260761”), holds a 23.9% (April 30,

2013 - 24.8%) interest in Sparkfly Inc. (“Sparkfly”), a private Georgia corporation that operates an

innovative promotions and rewards platform integrated with retail point of sale systems.

 

Does anyone know where/how/why they ended up with this position? I'm scared of situations where management thinks they have been successful in one field and tries to diversify into an unrelated field.

 

If they got this position in a re-org of a failed mining company or something then fine, but if they're making tech investments that worries me. It's obviously immaterial in size, but potentially concerning directionally.

 

They have had it for quite some time. Sparkfly and some other strange company. Nothing new. Hopefully they will sell them and focus what they know best. Having too much money in the bank is not always a good thing. Nothing to worry about

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Am taking another look through the financials before adding again, which would likely take me to a full/max position size. (Just behind Clarke, currently my largest position). I came across this:

 

A subsidiary of the Corporation, 2260761 Ontario Incorporated (“2260761”), holds a 23.9% (April 30,

2013 - 24.8%) interest in Sparkfly Inc. (“Sparkfly”), a private Georgia corporation that operates an

innovative promotions and rewards platform integrated with retail point of sale systems.

 

Does anyone know where/how/why they ended up with this position?

 

2260761 Ontario is jointly owned by Altius and Cranberry Capital.

 

http://altiusminerals.com/projects/cranberry-capital

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/als-to-altius-minerals/msg113165/#msg113165

 

 

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http://www.miningweekly.com/article/rio-tinto-completes-1bn-clermont-sale-glencore-takes-over-operations-2014-06-02

 

 

This is a billion dollar coal deal...Glencore is buying from RIo and Mick Davis (Glencore-xstrata) wants To build his new Mining empire around BHP's coal assets....

 

They are doing this for a reason...they see value in coal... as Altius has.

 

There are a lot of parties interested in taking the Thermal Coal assets off of Rio Tinto and BHP along the east cost of Australia at the moment. I think we are definitely seeing the beginning of more opportunistic types picking off non-core assets from the majors.

 

Rio have some very good thermal coal assets that people are interested in at the moment. Clermont was a mess for Rio but Glencore have huge take or pay commitments to fulfill as they scale down other highly unprofitable operations so they need the volume which might explain the purchase.

 

Re: comments by others about coal news effecting the share price, i don't think so. The recent plummet in Iron Ore prices to the low $90s would be a more likely culprit. People are probably more concerned about the impact Iron Ore prices closer to $80 might have on Kami financing than the thermal coal exposure i think.

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