ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[gary17]

Thanks!

 

Yes, I've been thinking about the same thing too.

 

We should hear something on or before July 2nd when the proxy will be mailed out if they are still proceeding with these transactions.  And these transactions will also need to take place first before the 2nd off take & financing taking place.

 

I am new on the board but have been reading the messages for a few weeks. On the issue of what might require shareholder approval, I think the place to start is asking what usually requires shareholder as opposed to director approval. I am not sure where Alderson is incorporated, but typically these approval items would include an amalgamation, asset sale of substantially all the assets, share reorganization, name change, exchange of assets or a takeover bid.  At this point it is a guess only, but would an amalgamation with one of the nearby mines that is closed have some operating synergies and perhaps tax advantages?

[SharperDingaan]

At this point it is a guess only, but would an amalgamation with one of the nearby mines that is closed have some operating synergies and perhaps tax advantages?

 

Look at the ADV Q1-2014 Balance Sheet.

Hebei bought 25% of Kami for 120M; the remaining 75% must be worth 360M+ & has a BV of 155M. Sell & there is a 205M gain on sale.

Q1-2014 Shareholder Equity of 252M + 205M gain (Kami Project sale) = 452M equity, & no mine under development.

And Wabush is just sitting there .... looking for a friend.

 

Look at Wabush.

It is not profitable because the cost of overburden removal amortizes too quickly.

But buy it used, upgrade the mine, add a pellet facility, access the port & rail, & the economics change - if you have an off-take agreement.

Employ enough people, & what are the odds there is provincial assistance to make it happen?

 

Look at the convertibles & the ALS stake.

If Kami is the template, odds are that both of these would be replaced with steel coys - & an off-take to finance a restart.

 

Look at ADV governance.

That BHP director is not there to twiddle his thumbs.

All these changes are very material, & would warrant a late AGM.

 

If it happens .... very, very elegant.

 

SD

[alertmeipp]

hebei paid 120m does not mean the rest must worth 360m. Can be way less or way more.

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

hebei paid 120m does not mean the rest must worth 360m. Can be way less or way more.

 

Agreed. But since Hebei bought there have been improvements, de-risking, & now ADV is giving up control - for a premium.

Only question is how much.

 

SD

[cwericb]

Optimistically I have been thinking along these same lines as SD. Would these two new high profile board members come on board unless something significant was in the works? And with Wabush just sitting there and probably only of value to ADV this would seem to put ADV in the drivers seat.

 

It's just unfortunate that the price of iron ore is where it is. But I think that what Dazel said earlier will soon come into play to support the price. As more and more mines are driven to shut down because they become unprofitable this should put a bottom on the price of ore. Hopefully this will make Kami look more viable with lower costs and higher grade ore. With all the approvals in place, the power line approved, the port nearly completed and the availability of Wabush and its related infrastructure, everything looks almost perfect -with the big exception  of price/demand.

 

The other big plus for Alderon is that the Newfoundland government is in full support of Kami and have been using it as a bright spot for potential employment to replace the jobs lost in Wabush. This certainly wouldn't hurt financing and Government might be persuaded to step in with some loan guarantees to ensure the project gets underway. This all brings up the question, does anyone have any idea why former premier Danny Williams stepped down as a director of ADV a few months ago? Could it be related to Government becoming more involved?

 

And while I'm thinking out loud, while China is a concern, lets not forget that the US is still recovering and I see that May's US car sales was the highest in 8 years.

[Gamecock-YT]

does anyone have any idea why former premier Danny Williams stepped down as a director of ADV a few months ago? Could it be related to Government becoming more involved?

 

 

Pretty sure he was brought in to grease the wheels with the permits. They don't call him Danny Millions for nothing.

[bizaro86]

At this point it is a guess only, but would an amalgamation with one of the nearby mines that is closed have some operating synergies and perhaps tax advantages?

 

Look at the ADV Q1-2014 Balance Sheet.

Hebei bought 25% of Kami for 120M; the remaining 75% must be worth 360M+ & has a BV of 155M. Sell & there is a 205M gain on sale.

Q1-2014 Shareholder Equity of 252M + 205M gain (Kami Project sale) = 452M equity, & no mine under development.

And Wabush is just sitting there .... looking for a friend.

 

I think you should probably only count the equity attributable to owners of the parent from ADV's financials, since the assets Hebei already owns won't be available for ADV to sell. That line item is $195 million on the Q1 2014 financials.

[wachtwoord]

What does ADV stand for?

[investor-man]

What does ADV stand for?

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ADV.TO&ql=0

[wachtwoord]

What does ADV stand for?

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ADV.TO&ql=0

 

Thanks, I didn't guess Alderon because there's no V in there.

[original mungerville]

Looks like Alderon financing is going to be delayed:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-19/alderon-may-miss-financing-deadline-as-iron-price-slumps.html

 

 

 

 

[investor-man]

Looks like Alderon financing is going to be delayed:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-19/alderon-may-miss-financing-deadline-as-iron-price-slumps.html

Bummer

[alertmeipp]

At this point (& price), this is actually not bad of a news, isn't it?

 

"“That’s possible, though it won’t be much longer before we have it,” Morabito said by telephone from Beijing. “The project itself is shovel ready -- we are fully permitted. All we have to do is bring in the money.”"

[investor-man]

At this point (& price), this is actually not bad of a news, isn't it?

 

"“That’s possible, though it won’t be much longer before we have it,” Morabito said by telephone from Beijing. “The project itself is shovel ready -- we are fully permitted. All we have to do is bring in the money.”"

 

Well... I know what news I'm waiting to hear, and this isn't it.

 

It's an incredibly vague article. Is this how a journalist earns his pay check? Not a bad gig.

[alertmeipp]

At this point (& price), this is actually not bad of a news, isn't it?

 

"“That’s possible, though it won’t be much longer before we have it,” Morabito said by telephone from Beijing. “The project itself is shovel ready -- we are fully permitted. All we have to do is bring in the money.”"

 

Well... I know what news I'm waiting to hear, and this isn't it.

 

It's an incredibly vague article. Is this how a journalist earns his pay check? Not a bad gig.

 

Until a deal is signed, it is possible that it might be delayed...what kind of reporting is that

[ItsAValueTrap]

At this point (& price), this is actually not bad of a news, isn't it?

 

"“That’s possible, though it won’t be much longer before we have it,” Morabito said by telephone from Beijing. “The project itself is shovel ready -- we are fully permitted. All we have to do is bring in the money.”"

 

Well... I know what news I'm waiting to hear, and this isn't it.

 

It's an incredibly vague article. Is this how a journalist earns his pay check? Not a bad gig.

 

It seemed like a good article to me.  If the article is vague, that's because Morabito is being vague.  The writer applied some thought to what he/she was writing and did not simply reprint stock promotion BS from management.

 

Management gave themselves a deadline for getting financing and they didn't hit that deadline.  That's important because it suggests that Alderon is having a very difficult time getting financed.

 

2- If you look a little deeper, some investment banks have cut their price target on Alderon.  This suggests to me that the investment banks who cut the price target aren't interested in raising money for Alderon.

 

- Paradigm Capital

- Scotiabank

- Desjardin

- TD  price target lowered April 2013

 

3- Brian Dalton is a really, really smart guy in my opinion.  Definitely in the 99th percentile.  He sits on Alderon's board.  He probably knew that Alderon wasn't getting financed anytime soon.  The secondary offering was probably done because he knows that Kami will likely be a bust.

[wisdom]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-19/china-miners-loss-is-bhp-s-gain-as-iron-prices-slump-44-.html

 

Iron ore miners struggling.

[giofranchi]

3- Brian Dalton is a really, really smart guy in my opinion.  Definitely in the 99th percentile.  He sits on Alderon's board.  He probably knew that Alderon wasn't getting financed anytime soon.  The secondary offering was probably done because he knows that Kami will likely be a bust.

 

Well, this is the way I see it: if Mr. Dalton is in the 99th percentile AND Kami is a bust, ALS is very cheap today.

I have been saying this for a while now, and the stock price has kept going down… therefore, I certainly might be very wrong… but no counterargument I have read or heard until now has convinced me yet. ;)

 

Gio

 

[giofranchi]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-19/china-miners-loss-is-bhp-s-gain-as-iron-prices-slump-44-.html

 

Iron ore miners struggling.

 

Thank you! This is basically what Dazel has been saying all along, isn’t it?

 

About 80 percent of China’s mines have operating costs at around $80 to $90 a ton, according to the Shanghai-based consulting firm Mysteel.com. That compares with $44 for Rio Tinto, $53 for BHP, $68 for Vale and $77 for Fortescue, according to estimates from UBS AG.

 

How should ADV compare, in case Kami gets built?

 

I am aware ADV management thinks Kami’s operating costs per ton are little above $40… But ItsAValueTrap has always been very skeptical about such an estimate… And of course it is not easy to believe ADV could be more efficient than both Rio Tinto and BHP… Therefore, what might be a more reliable number?

 

Probably, this has already been discussed many times… so bear with me, please! :)

 

Thanks,

 

Gio

 

[SharperDingaan]

Looks like Alderon financing is going to be delayed:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-19/alderon-may-miss-financing-deadline-as-iron-price-slumps.html

 

What we heard was a trial balloon as to extending the AGM date still further out.

 

Most would argue that 'enough is enough'. ADV is already breaching the June-30 reporting deadline, & this financing has already been delayed by 6 months (was due Dec-2013). "It won’t be much longer before we have it" was 6 months ago.

 

Like it or not, this is a government to government agreement. We have federal reps for a reason, & face is important in China.

How long would this really continue - if China had to explain to the world why its project financing cannot be relied upon, amidst much snickering & laughter.

 

SD

[alertmeipp]

China had to explain? Why? Chinese got its own problems to deal with, they are good negotiators and they know Alderon does not have much options. They probably makes ADV think it's close and then keep dragging them

 

ADV is the one who is losing face and will have to explain things to its shareholders.

 

They is a reason for ADV to trade so low @ $1.4 while most research firms has target price of above $3.

 

ValueTrap, Canadian banks only make easy money on fees. :)

 

I am happy to see that the news says the financing will come soon.

[alertmeipp]

3- Brian Dalton is a really, really smart guy in my opinion.  Definitely in the 99th percentile.  He sits on Alderon's board.  He probably knew that Alderon wasn't getting financed anytime soon.  The secondary offering was probably done because he knows that Kami will likely be a bust.

 

Well, this is the way I see it: if Mr. Dalton is in the 99th percentile AND Kami is a bust, ALS is very cheap today.

I have been saying this for a while now, and the stock price has kept going down… therefore, I certainly might be very wrong… but no counterargument I have read or heard until now has convinced me yet. ;)

 

Gio

 

I think some funds is unloading STILL.

 

[SharperDingaan]

"China had to explain? Why? Chinese got its own problems to deal with, they are good negotiators and they know Alderon does not have much options. ADV is the one who is losing face and will have to explain things to its shareholders."

 

Gaming only works if you let it - so change the game.

CNOC & others were frozen out of the oil patch because China was not trusted. Prove it, & never get any Cdn security of supply.

Somebody wants a bribe - have somebody bigger deal with it.

 

ADV has nothing to lose & has not lost any face; they gain it - by shining the light.

ADV simply calls the bluff & says it is not us ... see...it is them, this is now breaching regulation, & we are doing everything we can.

China loses face big-time, & it will be the other Asian nations mocking them that will hurt - not Canada. Nobody will believe China.

These are closed door discussions, & it is time for the sharp elbows & high sticking against the boards.

That is what we have team Canada for.

 

... & all this unpleasantness for supposedly a few days of possible delay.

 

SD

 

[Guest Dazel]

 

Shares are moving from weak hands to strong hands...Altius is vulnerable to a take out low ball offer here.

I agree with Trap Alderon has failed...it is our assumption that they got greedy when the iron ore price was $130. Kami will be auctioned if management cannot put a deal together..their clock is ticking. We assume that the board brought in the heavy hitters for this process.

 

Altius other assets are worth a great deal....it is iron ore hatred that is effecting the stock. China has orchestrated the iron ore price take down...they "will take a run at Alderon.

[alertmeipp]

Alderon has failed. Agree.

Maybe someone make Alderon greedy and now will take advantage of it. The mine will get developed eventually, the royalty will come. This and all other potential are free to pick up.