SharperDingaan Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Agreed, but just keep in mind that this thing is identical to Taleb's sandcastle. One additional grain of worry (tipping point) has the disproportionate effect of collapsing the whole structure (price fall). But the structure will also collapse (favorably) as the sand dries out & can no longer support the same load. We have a hair-dryer drying out the sand, against a constant dribble of new wet worry. Assess your risk accordingly ;) SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Assess your risk accordingly ;) The way I assess this kind of risks is always the same: When I like a business, the way I like ALS, and I can purchase it at a FAIR price, I always play the game… but also leave some room to average down: If the “hair-dryer” wins, my investment usually is large enough to yield me a meaningful gain; If the “constant dribble of new wet worry” wins, I still have room and funds to take advantage of a WONDERFUL price. Does anyone know really how to assess this kind of risks with better precision? ??? Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 First class management who have clearly demonstrated ability to create value over a long period of time and now on the verge of some solid cash flows. Aren’t those 27 words that perfectly describe also another company we often talk about? ;) (Except that other company has enjoyed solid cash flows for some time now!) Gio I'm not too big a fan of ambiguity, implications and uncertainty when it comes to investing so let me be as blunt as I possibly can: You're talking about BH I presume? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 I'm not too big a fan of ambiguity, implications and uncertainty when it comes to investing so let me be as blunt as I possibly can: You're talking about BH I presume? ;) Yes, I am! … Far from me to “deny you access to information” … ;D ;D ;D ;) ;) Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Agreed, but just keep in mind that this thing is identical to Taleb's sandcastle. One additional grain of worry (tipping point) has the disproportionate effect of collapsing the whole structure (price fall). But the structure will also collapse (favorably) as the sand dries out & can no longer support the same load. We have a hair-dryer drying out the sand, against a constant dribble of new wet worry. Assess your risk accordingly ;) SD A blow drier on the sand would destroy the capillary bridges holding the castle together and be just as devastating to the structure as excessive moisture content. Without Kami, Altius is within its fair value range. Kami may go the way of NLRC (the fully permitted refinery that never got off the ground). Altius almost seems like a biotech firm to me. They have stable revenue from their current drugs, but you never know when the next blockbuster drug will be developed. Unlike most small biotechs, Altius lets their partners take on most of the R&D risk. It is a good business model, but the time period between blockbusters could be a decade which makes Altius an unsuitable investment for some investor's performance hurtle. I've been in Altius for four years now and honestly my capital would have been much better invested elsewhere. Kami is in phase III trials. Promising, but far from a sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 I've been in Altius for four years now and honestly my capital would have been much better invested elsewhere. Ross, maybe… I, on the contrary, have invested in ALS at the beginning of this year, because I always look for two things: 1) "First class management who have clearly demonstrated ability to create value over a long period of time" 2) "Solid cash flows" Not a big surprise, right?! :) Until late last year ALS had only 1). Now it has both 1) and 2). Of course, nothing is sure… but I like to think that “first class management” should really squander “solid cash flows”, for a business, which has both, to be dead money… Except, of course, a “first class management” that squanders “solid cash flows” is an oxymoron. ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 I'm not too big a fan of ambiguity, implications and uncertainty when it comes to investing so let me be as blunt as I possibly can: You're talking about BH I presume? ;) Yes, I am! … Far from me to “deny you access to information” … ;D ;D ;D ;) ;) Cheers, Gio Haha, thank you ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 "A blow drier on the sand would destroy the capillary bridges holding the castle together and be just as devastating to the structure as excessive moisture content " There's always an engineer! Those are capillary bridges of worry that get destroyed; the castle just collapses in a happy pile of success on announcement of financing. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragu Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Aren’t those 27 words that perfectly describe also another company we often talk about? ;) Heh. This is more intriguing given the (potentially highly lucrative) optionality of the PG part of the business. I am virtually talking myself into buying here. Best, Ragu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Call your broker and ask for the CUSIP/ISIN of both listings. If they are the same it's the same security. Your broker will be able to sell it in either market. Thanks I made the inquiry. I'm almost positive they are they same. If your broker is not sophisticated they might be confused but you can basically force them to transact on whatever market you choose (commission will be high if it's not a market they typically transact in, but they CAN do it). If the CUSIP matches it will settle without an issue. Please keep in mind the bid-ask spread when considering the arbitrage opportunity. My broker is Interactive Brokers (I just don't have the Canadian market enabled right now). Primarily, I am asking this question to gauge the risk on holding these shares long term (if a large spread develops between OTC and Toronto) and not for arbitrage. Of course I'm also asking because I'm interested how this works). Thanks all for the information thus far :) I received the following answer: Dear Mr. XXX, I have confirmed that you could request North/South transfers for either of these positions. As such, when it comes time for you to dispose of the position, you can do so on either of the exchanges. Please note, we do require that you agree to a USD 10.00 fee for the transfer prior to initiating the transfer. Please let me know if you have any additional questions. Regards, Thanks for informing me this is possible. I never knew and learned something today :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 No posts in this thread for a week. Maybe a sign we've hit bottom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Just a sign that Dazel has gone radio-silent while he probably scoops up some more! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Major buying today. Over 2x avg volume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Major buying today. Over 2x avg volume. Anticipation of positive China numbers tomorrow? Alderon is still down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Major buying today. Over 2x avg volume. Yahoo finance shows less than that volume, more 1.5x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 It's another pump by Dan Ferris and Stock Gumshoe. They did the same pump a few months ago. http://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/extreme-value/a-classic-extreme-value-the-next-great-royalty-company-dan-ferris/ These pumps tend to reverse rather quickly. Folks who buy newsletter tips have no patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Libs Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 I'm stepping back to the sidelines on this one. Based on time spent reading this thread, I made $10 an hour on it :( IMO, it was a lot more attractive with higher ore prices. With the Kami delay, and issuance of stock at $14, it's turned south in my opinion. I don't think $400MM is that cheap. At the end of the day, this was a speculative jockey bet, and that jockey was ItsAValueTrap. (As much as I like Dalton). GL to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 I'm stepping back to the sidelines on this one. Based on time spent reading this thread, I made $10 an hour on it :( IMO, it was a lot more attractive with higher ore prices. With the Kami delay, and issuance of stock at $14, it's turned south in my opinion. I don't think $400MM is that cheap. At the end of the day, this was a speculative jockey bet, and that jockey was ItsAValueTrap. (As much as I like Dalton). GL to all. What is a jockey bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Libs Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 What is a jockey bet? Sorrry, a bad play on words. Dalton is really the jockey, the reason to buy Altius. But I agree with Trap's assessment and actions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 What is a jockey bet? Sorrry, a bad play on words. Dalton is really the jockey, the reason to buy Altius. But I agree with Trap's assessment and actions. I'm more on Dazel and Gio's team here :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Some positive news on iron ore recently, steel production up in China and iron ore price rebound back to $100. Hopefully, ADV can get something done soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Based on time spent reading this thread, I made $10 an hour on it :( Libs, imo what we all have learnt reading this thread is worth much more than that! ;) Maybe you are right, and the recent jump in price will soon be reversed… anyway, the 2 most important things are still true: 1) a royalty business in some basic necessities of life is a great business, 2) Mr. Dalton is a top of the class owner/manager. As much as I respect ItsAValueTrap’s views and ideas, nothing he has said so far convinced me that 1) and 2) are not true. Of course, if 1) and 2) are true, ALS is cheap today. Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Finally ... Wabush is in play!. http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Canada/NL/ID/2475776567/ Look between time 52:00 through 55:00 SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthaniv Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Canada/NL/ID/2475904916/ direct link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Does anyone have a good idea of what the most likely outcome is for Wabush and the extent of any Alderon involvement? We know that Alderon has some interest in the infrastructure: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/alderon-to-consider-buying-wabush-mines-1.2538090 We also know that MFC are a potential purchaser (interestingly Altius posted the following link on its twitter account): http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/wabush-mines-owner-in-talks-with-potential-buyer-1.2714323 Is one posibility that MFC buy the mine from Cliffs and then give to Alderon in exchange for a royalty on the Kami project? N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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