Guest Dazel Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 "Would that make the NPV of the 3% royalty to Altius approx. $90 million?" no. You are seeing a cash flow model....Altius royalty is gross sales.... This is also half of the asset assuming they release the 43-101 OF $ 800M TO $1 BILLION....that would take the NPV of the project likely to $6 billion!!! Altius will not make $2.5 billion on it with their 39% stake...so lets not get carried away..but Alderon could be "huge". The price used is $115 per ton....present price is $180. So using these numbers...and assuming a closer price to reality....I will let you do the math on how huge Alderon "could" be. Worth a lot more than the value of Altius right now as we have been saying for sometime. The PEA was better than we thought. We would suspect these returns will bring the big boys to the table...China, Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto...more so after the new resource estimate. disclosure: we own Altius Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 http://www.mbironoreindex.com/ This the iron ore price today...at $181. Someone will figure out what Altius has found sooner or later...The producers that rely on supply of iron ore will be first and the market next. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Guys, thanks for the update + commentary. Have been scaling in. Becoming one of my larger holdings. Probably close to my limit for this type of investment (a company that I don t have a direct familiarity i.e I can t see,touch product,operations etc) I can t help thinking that it is too good to be true. Does anyone else feel that? I want to ask, without insulting or hurting anyones feeling as I know that a lot of effort has been put into this one especially by Dazel....What are the chances of fraud or bogus reporting? I am trying to be unemotional. Market obviously worried re recession, macro turmoil etc + I am comforted by the fact that it is indifferent to Canadian smaller resource based companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 "I want to ask, without insulting or hurting anyones feeling as I know that a lot of effort has been put into this one especially by Dazel....What are the chances of fraud or bogus reporting?" Biaggio...of course you will do your own due diligence... great question... Their cash hoard is a number of investment successes since 1997...but the largest of these are Aurora...you can see the press releases of stock sales in 2006 on the website. Obviously the public shares of aurora would have seen the values of these share sales. IRC and Royal Gold were also public transactions. We suggest you look at their other deals as well. Harry Dobson is a legend in the industry and they have worked with him extensively... They have dealt with cream of the crop since inception.. Rick Rule, Brent Cook to name a few...these guys would and could not have their reputations around anything but the best. Brent Cook is an adviser to the company... It helped us to check all of these people and their backgrounds. You will find many more that i have not identified that are linked to Brian Dalton...who himself has an impeccable record in his home province which we also like. Alderon- we suggest that you look at the people associated with Alderon and their reputations and past experience. junior resource company's have a bad reputation and about 90% of the profit is produced by 5 % of the people...Leucadia perked our interest when they entered the resource sector. So we looked for the best of the best and we think we found it. But you should take a look at the people involved. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Thanks Dazel for your reply, Of course we all should do our due diligence. Obviously I am a believer in the story. I generally love balance sheets with a lot of cash on them. I usually assume that the cash is real + trust the auditors in this case Deloite & Touche. Am I naive to have this belief in light of some of the items in regards to fraud/short selling on the other threads- EBIX, Sino Forest. I am also reassured by the insider ownership, and other highly respected share holders (R Rule, H Dobson). I am going to review their annual reports + other filings on Sedar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Am I naive to have this belief in light of some of the items in regards to fraud/short selling on the other threads- EBIX, Sino Forest. No fraud at EBIX as far as anyone knows, so don't lump together with Sino Forest please :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Sorry Liberty did not mean it that way,meant the debate on the EBIX thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Sorry Liberty did not mean it that way,meant the debate on the EBIX thread No worries, I just wanted to make sure that people who follow this thread but not the one at EBIX wouldn't read that and conclude: "Ah, so they did find something bad at EBIX..." ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orion Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Hi, after reading the discussion I think this is a very compelling idea. But, unfortunately for me, this topic (Mining, Exploration) is way out of my "circle of competence". Beside reading Altius´s reports, do you have any recommendations to get a better understanding, how things work in this sector? Websites, books, etc. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Hi, after reading the discussion I think this is a very compelling idea. But, unfortunately for me, this topic (Mining, Exploration) is way out of my "circle of competence". Beside reading Altius´s reports, do you have any recommendations to get a better understanding, how things work in this sector? Websites, books, etc. Thanks This might help: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=5141" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic" 54591#msg54591 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Looks like someone finally noticed today. ALS up 6.17%. Probably because Altius sent a press release about Alderon.. Meanwhile, Alderon's down 4.4%.. Oh Mr Market... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Alderon-Announces-Initial-iw-3746666263.html?x=0 Alderon beat their own estimates...over 1 billion tonnes!!! take a look at the evaluation numbers and plug in some numbers and this is a home run. It really look looks like Thompson Consolidated 2...I am sure that Altius will be extremely busy in the next while as there will great interest from the mining giants that missed the Thompson story. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 That's great news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 If I'm reading things right, today's resource estimate basically adds 480 million tonnes of inferred resource from North Rose to the already existing 118 million tonnes of inferred from combined Rose Central and Mills Lake. The 490 million tonnes of indicated resource from April's report remains the same. I'm guessing a few hundred more holes moves a lot of that inferred # to the indicated class. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Has anyone looked at Thompson's reserve numbers at a similar stage? The first reserve estimate I see on sedar is dated 3/29/2007 for Thompson. Looks like inferred of 35 million tonnes and measured/indicated of 638 million tonnes. I'm not at all sure how useful that info is given different drilling paces. I did not compare # of drill holes or anything to see if comparing certain resource estimates between the two companies represents a useful analog. Just curious if anyone with more mining knowledge than me (ahhh...I see a great many hands raised) has torn that angle apart. Anyway, the reserve estimate looks good. 406 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 yes you are correct...they want to have the 1 billion tonnes upgraded to "measured and indicated" as the Thompson release had (630m measured and indicated)...the latest inferred tonnage had 25 holes in its estimate...the first resource estimate had 68 holes... http://www.alderonmining.com/_resources/news/2011-06-09-NewsRelease.pdf ...this explains there goal of the summer and fall drilling program. The press releases over time took up the shares of Thompson as will likely be the case with Alderon as they drill more holes...It should be exciting times for Alderon over the next while. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Dazel, do you own any Alderon directly or do you get all your exposure through Altius? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 We have sold Alderon to add more to Altius. Alderon will likely do better but we like the margin of safety and the other catalysts at Altius. At some point the sum of the parts and the managment at Altius will be valued. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsto Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Alderon mention. Pulled this off the stockhouse forum: http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/september-2011/market-call-tonight-september-15-2011/ShowAllClips/#clip533104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 BC mention reminds me of the following, which might have been posted here before... Paul V Eden: "...That is why Altius is still the single largest position in my portfolio. . .by a wide margin...." http://www.gold-speculator.com/gold-report/40031-brent-cook-tete-tete-paul-van-eeden.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrayFan Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Century Iron Mines and Altius Minerals Sign Principal and Royalty Agreements on Four Labrador Iron Ore Properties http://www.pr-inside.com/century-iron-mines-and-altius-minerals-r2819258.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Anyone has info on century iron mines? Couldn't find much, but if Altius likes them they must have potential. The Chinese partners certainly are a good sign. http://www.centuryiron.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 http://www.championminerals.com/docs/CHM_%20Presentation%20September_2011_FINAL.pdf Page 7 of the above shows a comparable companies analysis. Comparison is based on EV/Contained Fe (US$/t) and (EV+Capex) / Contained Fe (US$/t) I'm interested to know how Kami/Alderon compares, but I'm missing some data. Would be great if anyone can fill the gaps. Alderon EV C$210m The only capital cost number for Kami I have is for Rose Central US$989m (*p18) Anyone knows what the Contained Fe is for the Kami projects? * http://alderonmining.com/_resources/presentations/presentation.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 http://www.alderonmining.com/_resources/news/2011-09-08-NewsRelease.pdf Mr. B, Have a look at this (above) it should give you what you need...I think... While Champion minerals has a very nice resource you have to look where it is....the PEA they released was from 2010 and cost have likely sky rocketed since then. They also have several members of the old Thompson Consolidated group. You have to look where they are though...they need "62 KM OF RAIL" to be built to hook up to the Bloom lake rail connection. I do not pretend to be an expert but this is a lot...their resources are spread out all over the place (look on the map where they are-Alderon is to the right of Bloom Lake and not far from Wabush...It is not labelled on their map...they are very south of Bloom Lake in Quebec) as well ...so it is not as economical as Alderon because the infrastructure is north where Alderon is... Alderon is closer to the rail connection then Thompson consolidated was....I believe it is 12km's to reach the rail line...their cost for the rail construction is around $45m in their PEA. Location is the key to bringing down costs as we know and Alderon has a more concentrated resource that is closer to all that is needed. It will be interesting to see if they include that chart in their new presentation with Alderon in it. As you know Alderon was not around when they did their last PEA. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moore_capital54 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Gents, be careful with these iron plays you are throwing around here. Remember the most important element of an iron ore mine is INFRASTRUCTURE. The earth's crust is made up of 6% Fe. Its not rare at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 "Gents, be careful with these iron plays you are throwing around here. Remember the most important element of an iron ore mine is INFRASTRUCTURE. The earth's crust is made up of 6% Fe. Its not rare at all." agreed... this is my point. As Brian Dalton said about Alderon " It is our address that is important". I would suggest that all who are looking at this look at the map of "where" Alderon actually is....and where the infrastructure is in the Labrador iron ore district. Alderon think they are better positioned then where Thompson Consolidated was in terms of infrastructure and rail. Obviously costs have risen but the price of iron ore has risen too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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