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Guest Dazel

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http://altiusminerals.com/press-releases/view/299

 

Market conditions have got “even better”, says Altius boss Brian Dalton • “By better, I mean worse.”

 

Stripping out Callinan’s cash and Altius’ existing 6 per cent stake and the deal cost 5 to 7 times Callinan’s royalty cash flow of $10m to $13m per annum.

 

Whilst Altius has held up in the

current market, Anglo Pacific, which

holds a sizable royalty over Rio Tinto’s

Kestrel coking coal mine in Australia,

has halved in the last year. “

 

“Altius is growing this business in a

relative vacuum,” wrote Scotiabank

analyst, Mike Hocking, who says

shares are trading below 14 times fullyear

earnings. That compares to 46

and 49 times for Osisko and Franco-

Nevada, its gold royalty peers, and 20

times for Labrador Iron Ore Royalty, a

spin-off from Rio Tinto’s iron ore

operations in Canada.

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Earnings out:

 

http://altiusminerals.com/uploads/PR1503-Q3.pdf

 

Altius Minerals Corporation (“Altius” or the “Corporation”) reports attributable third quarter revenue of

$7,583,000 compared to $2,704,000 for the same period last year. Attributable revenue, year to date, is $21,827,000

(2014  ‐ $5,001,000). Offsetting significantly increased royalty revenue were various unrealized investment losses and

adjustments to carrying values of $6,789,000, primarily related to the market price of the Corporation’s investment in

Alderon Iron Ore Corp (“Alderon”). This results in a net loss of $5,701,000 or ($0.18) per share for the three months

ended January 31, 2015 compared to a net loss of $2,000 for the same period last year.  

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  • A few bits of new info from their MD&A (new to me at least):
     
    • Anglo American have terminated their agreement regarding the Natashquan project. This is a shame, but it was flagged in the last quater results that they did not find anything so I guess this is not a surprise.
       
    • Regarding CMB: "A recent presentation by Paladin says the project has the potential to be placed amongst the world’s largest economically viable uranium projects – likely to start at around 5Mlb/a with expansion potential, commencing in 2021\ subject to uranium prices." I think that using current uranimum prices of around $40/lb Altius' 2% NSR translates into a new potential royalty revenue stream of $4m a year.
       
    • Labrador West - iron ore: "Rio Tinto recently fulfilled their obligations of $7M in expenditures for an earned interest of 70% and have therefore notified Altius of their intentions to form a JV." Good news that this is still proceeding in current environment.
       

 

N

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Guest Dazel

today's earnings are from the old Altius.

 

 

Altius the new "cheeky upstart"....will become known for their reliable cash flow from their royalty portfolio but more importantly their ability to make great deals for shareholders. While their peers need to pay for their royalty pipeline's Altius has paid very very little. Over the years they will have some success with lumpy capital gains but the investment community will not pay much attention to it.

 

Altius earnings will look stellar next quarter (unlike today) with vqq gains on top of their increased royalty cash flow...and the quarter after that cash flow will grow further with caa acquisition...but most importantly those cash flows will payout for decades with very little overhead and 0 capex..

Now that they have established themselves as a "cheeky upstart" (funny-but shows how little is know about Altius) in the royalty sector...we expect the deals to keep coming in this disastrous environment. We expect Dalton and his team to pick up dollars for dimes in the coming years not unlike a young Leucadia...

 

Altius will trade at market multiples with it's peers and consolidate the sector or they will be consolidated by their peers...

 

Dazel

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  • 2 weeks later...

Altius Implements Regular Dividend, Pays Down Debt, and Re-Establishes NCIB

 

Growth Opportunities in the Sector Remain Strong

 

ST. JOHN'S, NEWFOUNDLAND--(Marketwired - March 26, 2015) - Altius Minerals Corporation ("Altius") (TSX:ALS) is pleased to announce the implementation of a dividend policy and a starting annualized distribution of $0.08 per share payable as $0.02 per share on a quarterly basis on its common shares to all shareholders of record at the close of business on April 7, 2015 expected to be paid on or about April 20, 2015.

 

Concurrently, Altius announces that it has made a payment of $35 million on its term debt facility. This payment reduces term debt to $79 million (from $140 million less than a year ago) and, as per the terms of its credit agreement, results in a reduced effective interest rate from 7.8% to 6.5% annually. This payment therefore results in an estimated annual improvement to pre tax operating cash flows of $3.8 million.

 

Altius also announces that it has re-instated its Normal Course Issuer Bid ("NCIB") and it may purchase at market price up to 1,617,841 common shares ("Shares"), being approximately 5% of its outstanding Shares of 32,356,826 as of March 17, 2015, by way of a normal course issuer bid ("NCIB") through the facilities of the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX"). The bid is subject to regulatory approval. The NCIB will commence March 30, 2015 and will end no later than March 29, 2016. Any Shares purchased during the NCIB will be cancelled and returned to treasury.

 

The TSX rules permit Altius to purchase daily, through TSX facilities, a maximum of 16,088 Shares under Altius' NCIB. During the previous 12 months, Altius did not purchase any Shares as it did not have an active NCIB. The reason for the NCIB is that, in the opinion of the board of directors, the value of Altius, based on anticipated cash flows and underlying asset values, is from time to time, greater than the then aggregate market price of the Shares and accordingly, the acquisition of Shares under the NCIB represents an appropriate use of funds.

 

Ben Lewis, CFO of Altius, commented, "Following the recent monetization of its investment holding in Virginia Mines, which was recently combined with Osisko Gold Royalties, Altius gained the balance sheet flexibility to pay down debt related to the Prairies Royalties acquisition in April 2014 and thereby enhance the operating cash flows from our strong royalty portfolio. This in turn has allowed us to implement a dividend policy that we believe is not only sustainable but capable of growth going forward."

 

John Baker, Executive Chairman of the Company added, "For the first time in our 17 year history of growth we are in a position to provide our shareholders with a dividend. The decision by the Board on a starting dividend was balanced and optimized in light of the many growth opportunities that our sector continues to offer up in this cyclical industry, while maintaining prudent leverage levels and other forms of shareholder capital return such as share buybacks."

 

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Great news. They are super cautious with the dividend though. I read further investments in royalties out of that fact. I would love to see them take out Anglo Pacific to strenghten their great position in the emerging bulk commodities royalty space.

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Guest Dazel

 

 

as expected....

 

now I continue to believe that those patient investors that know what Altius is will be rewarded...short term because of re rate that will come after this...they are trading at less than half the multiples of their peers. The dividend will bring in the institutional money and income oriented investors...the dividend yield is lower than their peers but their growth profile absolutely trumps their peers. Congrats to all that held through the turmoil you should expect a large jump in the shares coming...as the investment community realizes the "cheeky upstart" is actually an seasoned market outperformer. Their growth rate over their !7 years is better than the Leucadia, Fairfax, Berkshire numbers. As we are 4 years into a bear market in their industry we expect them to continue to grow quickly. I am not sure they will match Franco Nevada's 40% per annum they pulled off from 1983 to 2002...but i would not rule it out as Franco also had the benefit of a big bear market to achieve their results.

When the Tesla shareholders start to buy in here it will be time to sell...until then happy sailing.

 

Congrats to Brian and his team! They are everything you dream in having as owner operators...maybe BH holdings should have a look at what corporate governance is. Dalton makes a little over $200k a year and his ownership comes from his founding position in the company. Can you imagine? Sardar pulled in $30m last year!!!!! Their market caps will be the same very soon...do think that Dalton could could marry licensing with his royalty business...and what he could do with the cash at BH holdings?

*this is obviously speculation but it shows what is possible for the future of Altius as Dalton grows his cash machine...

 

Dazel

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Congrats to Brian and his team! They are everything you dream in having as owner operators...maybe BH holdings should have a look at what corporate governance is. Dalton makes a little over $200k a year and his ownership comes from his founding position in the company. Can you imagine? Sardar pulled in $30m last year!!!!! Their market caps will be the same very soon...do think that Dalton could could marry licensing with his royalty business...and what he could do with the cash at BH holdings?

*this is obviously speculation but it shows what is possible for the future of Altius as Dalton grows his cash machine...

 

Dazel

 

Dazel,

you very well know how much I respect your thoughts and point of view.

For all the respect I have, I must say I think you are right about ALS, but wrong about BH.

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

 

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Guest Dazel

I know Gio...

not here to bad mouth Sardar...But I have to compare Dalton to someone as there are few who have his track record...actually a handful. That puts Sardar in an elite group as well and certainly helps your case on his potential. Sardar is not seasoned...he has used the market rise from 2008 to fill his pockets (all boats rose...look at Longleaf's Dine equity which we owned) Dalton did not do this when he had the opportunity in 2007 (when all boats rose)...he pocketed the cash for the "company" and waited 6 years to buy distress. Will Sardar do the same with his new structure? I hope so...but I am not betting on it.

 

Good luck Gio. I have great respect for your approach and certainly BH holdings has been a huge success so far.

 

Dazel

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It's nice to see Altius repurchasing a large number of they shares that were issued a year ago at lower prices.

 

Glenn, now that Altius is repurchasing shares again, are you considering jumping back on board? I remember your basic thesis was buy when Dalton was buying and sell when he's selling because he knows the value of the company a lot better than we do.

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The dividend in USD just 0.065/year. I am OK with that. The stock buyback is a big news, it implies they are doing very well or predicting well in the coming royalty revenue.  I wonder which one is doing beyond they expectation.  I am waiting to see ALS make more purchases.

 

ALS management team is really great.......

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Altius reinstated NCIB. It doesn't necessarily mean that Altius will be buying shares at current prices. Lots of companies announce NCIBs but never follow through.

 

but it does signal a few things - cash is going to keep coming in. either management will use it for new royalties which will add value or they will buy stock, if it is undervalued which should amount to the same thing. either ways it works for us ...right ?

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It's nice to see Altius repurchasing a large number of they shares that were issued a year ago at lower prices.

 

Glenn, now that Altius is repurchasing shares again, are you considering jumping back on board? I remember your basic thesis was buy when Dalton was buying and sell when he's selling because he knows the value of the company a lot better than we do.

 

As EliG pointed out, the NCIB doesn't mean that they will repurchase shares.  I think Altius would repurchase shares in the $6-8 range.  Given that iron ore has fallen *so much*, Alderon isn't worth much and the Kami royalty isn't worth much.  So I expect repurchases to be below the last set of prices that Altius was repurchasing at.  They did a secondary offering at prices slightly higher than today's price.

 

When management talks about accretive acquisitions, they're saying that they are willing to use stock to pay for acquisitions if the stock is overvalued relative to what they're buying.  I'm surprised that they are now paying a dividend to try to get the share price up.

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In a few days, Altius will have a potential buyer of stock most trading days that is more familiar with the company than anyone else. And it has not had this particular buyer for the past year. Much to my chagrin. I'm glad they didn't lead off with a much larger dividend for a couple of reasons:

a) Paying a sizable dividend may attract institutional interest, but it's not guarantee. If you start big and nothing much happens, you've just limited your capital flexibility.

b) Limiting the size of the divvie payout now **may** suggest a deal or two in the pipeline. If the company's stated objective of becoming a premier non-PM royalty house matter to the principal players, Dalton will not be standing still in this environment.

 

Limit my tax bill and in the current mining environment, keep the capital and make it be fruitful and multiply.

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Comparisons to Anglo Pacific prompted me to read over the just-released annual report to learn a bit more. Some quick thoughts:

a) Constant references to dividends suggest shareholder base cares a great deal about this. AP pays a high % of normalized royalty rev.

b) Diversifying Kestrel coking coal royalty in Australia a primary goal--Narrabri cited as step in this direction. Kestrel still looms large on the pie chart.

c) Focused on expansion in current environment. Copper named as "goal" royalty addition.

d) Noted little competition for producing non-PM royalties. Treger wasn't saying royalty owners were giving them away, though...

e) Kestrel royalty plummeted in 2014 when operator Rio mined lands not under royalty agreement over the past year or so.

f) At the right price, AP's assets work okay for Altius. I think I'd rather see Altius pry loose a large royalty or two that are imbedded in mining companies. The PMRL/CDP deal has me wondering what other royalties exist around the world in this class. If I'm AP, a combination with Altius looks pretty good. If AP is Altius' toughest competition in finding non PM royalties, Altius is well positioned. I say that with respect for Julian Treger and his team--their strategy to expand is similar to Altius, but the scale/diversification isn't yet there, and the dividend commitment seems a big capital limitation. 

 

On a side note, this text is from the Telkwa Agreement back in September: "Within 6 months of execution of this agreement TCL will pay Altius $500,000 and prepare a NI 43-101 compliant resource statement for the Project." Does anyone on the boards with more geological sense (ahh, I see many hands raised) have any comments on Telkwa potential? 

 

If Altius trades at $6-$8, I don't think Altius will be the only buyer out there. I'm in with Dazel on taking Altius private at those levels assuming he's up for a 99/1 split with me being the 1%. This dividend announcement doesn't strike me as a "let's jack up the stock price" move. Not that having richer currency isn't a big advantage if it could be had by any dividend amount, but if you're trying to make that happen fast, $0.08 per annum falls short, I think. I'll be interested to see what Altius does with the balance sheet after the Callinan deal closes.

 

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Thanks, I saw that. I have been building up a stake in Kobex for quite a while on the basis of the fact that it is trading at a significant discount to cash and its one investment, and because PVE is involved. I am just trying to work out why als would effectively transfer assets from a 90% owned entity, to one that it fully owns. Is it just a way of giving 2260761 Ontario more cash to play with? Or is there more to it?

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Thanks, I saw that. I have been building up a stake in Kobex for quite a while on the basis of the fact that it is trading at a significant discount to cash and its one investment, and because PVE is involved. I am just trying to work out why als would effectively transfer assets from a 90% owned entity, to one that it fully owns. Is it just a way of giving 2260761 Ontario more cash to play with? Or is there more to it?

 

The whole situation does seem odd....

 

PVE manages the portfolio for Kobex too. An Altius controlled PVE investment entity owns a major stake in another PVE investment entity and just sold it's stake to Altius so the first PVE entity could have more cash. Almost enough to make your head spin haha

 

It's strange that the investment would exist in the first place due to the clear conflicts of interest, but it's even stranger that PVE would sell Kobex to Altius so now Altius has ownership in two investment vehicles managed my PVE...

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Press releases say that both transactions (Kobex and Evrim) are related to corporate reorganization of 2260761 Ontario. They don't say what kind of reorganization and for what purposes.

 

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/altius-investments-limited-acquires-stake-in-kobex-capital-corp-2005745.htm

 

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/altius-investments-limited-acquires-stake-in-evrim-resources-corp-2005751.htm

 

 

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