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ALS.TO - Altius Minerals


Guest Dazel

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LIORC and AngloPacific would fit the profile. I don't know of many other non-precious metals royalty companies with high distribution payouts other than oil/gas royalties, which is not to say that such royalty companies don't exist. I just haven't stumbled across them yet. With LIORC, we know that Sean Roosen at Osisko was buying not long ago and has a large stake. This is the sort of environment in which the Lab. Trough could get shaken up a bit.

 

I could see Altius having interest in both enterprises, but whether that's the case remains to be seen.

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I wish there was more detail on the extent of the land that was transferred. It was my understanding that CDP was known to have a lot of coal deposits on it. If we know that the coal deposits are there, and there are coal mines surrounding this area, what's the estimate for when we'll actually have a mine up and running to see this flow into our net income?

 

 

The operating mines currently service power stations. Assuming that the amount of coal dug up currently is everything the power stations need, I would speculate that the main effect of the additional lands is to extend the expected life of the existing paintearth and sheerness royalties, rather than expand the size of the royalty. Ie when the current mines are emptied, they move on to the new lands that Altius has just donated to continue servicing the power stations. But this life extension would be a big deal as these two mines are very big components of Altius' revenue.

 

http://altiusminerals.com/prairie-royalties/paintearth

http://altiusminerals.com/prairie-royalties/sheerness

 

Any other views?

 

N.

 

Nope, you've nailed it. I would expect royalties to be down slightly, as power prices in AB have been low, so power station owners are taking market based downtime. Also, the extra land is unlikely to extend the timeframe of the royalties past when the adjacent coal plants close. Currently paintearth closes in 2019/2025/2031 for regulatory reasons. (One giant boiler each of those years)

 

While I thought these were reasonable explanations at the time, the new presentation suggests that's not the case.

 

- Created a royalty from a coal project, which is being actively studied as a development option to solve

projected fuel shortfalls at two nearby power plants

 

Seems like it might flow into royalty revenue in the near future. Now the question is will it even be a material amount?

 

Also, I really liked the following regarding future growth.

 

Accordingly, we have increased direct land holdings by more than (10) tenfold over past two years

- Copper-gold focus in Chile

- Base and precious metals and bulk commodities in Canada

- Nickel-Copper in Michigan

- Further indirect exposure to Alaska, Nevada, Mexico, Serbia, Portugal, and Ireland

 

Royalty buying opportunity window remains open as cash

sought throughout sector in order to shore up balance

sheets – we are evaluating several

 

Also, the increase of $25M in royalty investments relative to the $15M we thought isn't insignificant. Even at a 4% yield (which is likely low if they're buying distressed) would improve revenues by an additional $1M per year with the potential for cap gains on top.

 

The future looks bright

 

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Meanwhile I am really starting to wonder whether Altius and Paul Van Eeden have fallen out. Altius recently sold their Kobex stake to Kingsway Financial, which has just announced that is attempting to sack him and the rest of the board:

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kingsway-financial-services-inc-requisitions-shareholder-meeting-of-kobex-capital-corp-2015-09-17

 

ItsAValueTrap, you follow Kobex right? Any thoughts on this latest news?

 

N.

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TwoCitiesCapital, I don't see the contradiction between what I was speculating and what they have said in their presentation. "..projected fuel shortfalls". They don't say near term projected shortfalls.

 

I don't particularly care to get into an argument, because it's not a big deal either way, but you said "Assuming that the amount of coal dug up currently is everything the power stations need, I would speculate that the main effect of the additional lands is to extend the expected life of the existing paintearth and sheerness royalties, rather than expand the size of the royalty."

 

If it's due to projected shortages, I would imagine that means that the amount of coal currently being dug up doesn't satisfy the power stations' needs and that the royalty revenue may be expanded in the near term. Or am I missing something?

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Meanwhile I am really starting to wonder whether Altius and Paul Van Eeden have fallen out. Altius recently sold their Kobex stake to Kingsway Financial, which has just announced that is attempting to sack him and the rest of the board:

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kingsway-financial-services-inc-requisitions-shareholder-meeting-of-kobex-capital-corp-2015-09-17

 

ItsAValueTrap, you follow Kobex right? Any thoughts on this latest news?

 

N.

 

If he has operated their JV the way he has Kobex, I'd say they have good reasons.

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Projected shortages can be because they expect the coal to run out on the land they are currently mining, and so need more land to mine when this is projected to happen. I think you are assuming there is a near term increase in power demand that requires more coal.

 

I'm not interested in arguments either, I'm just trying to make sure I understand the business...

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Meanwhile I am really starting to wonder whether Altius and Paul Van Eeden have fallen out. Altius recently sold their Kobex stake to Kingsway Financial, which has just announced that is attempting to sack him and the rest of the board:

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kingsway-financial-services-inc-requisitions-shareholder-meeting-of-kobex-capital-corp-2015-09-17

 

Interesting.  I can see why kingsway wants to do that.  Kobex's G&A is unnecessarily high, much like 99% of the junior miners out there.  Also, because Kobex trades at a very obvious discount, it does make sense to buy back shares and/or to liquidate the company.  In the past, kobex used to buy back its own shares.

 

The reason junior miners stop their share repurchases is because insiders realize:

A- The company's cash is where their salary comes from.  Buying back shares will eventually reduce their compensation... either because the company will have little cash, or because it's hard to justify big salaries for small companies.

B- Shrinking the company increases the impact of their overheads, especially when G&A is excessive.

 

I'm sure Brian Dalton completely understood that Kobex traded at a discount.  However, I think he didn't want to go activist on the company or to offer to take it over below NAV.  If he goes activist on the company, then it will be difficult for Altius to do joint venture deals on its prospect generation business.  In the future, the scumbag management teams of junior explorers will look at Dalton's track record and see that he ended the party at Kobex.

 

Dalton has sat on the board of Alderon.  For his part-time work there, he was paid more per hour than his full-time job as Altius' CEO.  As a board member at Alderon, he could have pressured the company into lowering insider compensation, getting rid of management flying around on corporate jets, directed the company not to pay for stock promotion, etc. etc.  But that's not something you do if you want to do JV deals with juniors in the future.  Then they won't want to give him stock (or board seats).  Interestingly enough, the prospect generation business only made money because it received and sold stock.  Otherwise, it would not have made any money because none of its prospects became mines.

 

So I think that's the politics that go on.

 

2- Going activist on these companies is not necessarily a good idea.  Selwyn Resources and Aberdeen International (AAB.TO) are examples.  Those two companies are a little worse because management was not very shareholder-friendly.  The problem is that management can use shareholder money to fight the activists.  So even if you "win" (which didn't happen with Aberdeen), NAV shrinks because of all the legal bills and severance payments.

 

Selwyn worked out ok though I don't think it was that worthwhile for the activists.

 

In this case, things might work out a little better because I don't think that Paul van Eeden (and his protege Phil du Toit, who is the CEO) are on the same level as Stan Bharti, who was the guy behind Aberdeen International.  Stan Bharti is an example of some of the worst corporate governance in junior mining.

 

3- I think Van Eeden + Phil du Toit's plan was to wait for a turn in junior mining.  When there's a bull market in junior mining, you can get the brokers to promote your stock.  Then you sell shares above NAV and generate lots of fees for the brokers (which is why they promote your stock in the first place).

 

Pinetree Capital is vaguely similar to Kobex and was able to sell shares at something like 3X NAV (I forget the exact number).  So I think van Eeden was waiting for silly markets to return. 

 

*The corporate governance at Pinetree is among the worst in junior mining.

 

4- I doubt that Kingsway has been burned by its activism before.  They bought a lot of shares at 65 cents/share.  Once you fight management, you will incur legal fees and spend a lot of time doing so.  The NAV at Kobex is over 70 cents/share.  The upside is not that much once you factor in your expenses.

 

I think they're going to realize that it was barely worth doing.

 

Now if you buy at 50-55 cents, then I think it's worth doing.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I guess another stock gumshoe pump and dump today.

 

Though I did see this that hadn't been announced by altius:

 

September 29, 2015

Bitterroot Resources and Altius Minerals Close Strategic Financing Transactions

Bitterroot Resources Ltd. (BTT, TSX-V) and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Bitterroot") and several wholly-owned subsidiaries of Altius Minerals Corporation (ALS, TSX) (collectively, "Altius") have closed a strategic transaction (the "Transaction") under which Altius will finance future mineral exploration on Bitterroot's Voyageur Lands and Copper Range Lands in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan (the "Properties").

 

As part of the Transaction, Altius has acquired a 50.1% interest in the Properties, which will revert to Bitterroot if Altius does not fund C$600,000 of exploration expenditures on the Properties before September 29, 2016. Following the Year 1 earn-in, Altius will have the right to acquire an additional 19.9% of the Properties by completing C$2.5 million in exploration spending by September 29, 2021, plus the right to acquire an additional 10% of the Properties by completing exploration spending of a further C$5 million, or completing an NI 43-101 compliant pre-feasibility study on a mineral resource on the Properties, before September 29, 2025. Bitterroot has also granted to Altius a 2% net smelter returns (NSR) royalty on the Voyageur Lands (covering approximately 250 square miles of mineral rights) and has assigned to Altius its right to repurchase a 1% NSR held by a third party on the Copper Range Lands, both of which are subject to Altius funding the required Year 1 exploration expenditures.

 

Bitterroot will manage the Year 1 exploration program, which will include detailed airborne electromagnetic surveys and associated geological, geochemical and geophysical data processing, analyses and compilations. The objective of the first year's exploration program is to develop drill targets which are prospective for high-grade, conduit-hosted Ni-Cu-PGM deposits similar to the Eagle, Eagle East, BIC and Tamarack deposits.

 

In conjunction with the Transaction, Bitterroot has consolidated its common shares on a 10 (ten) old for 1 (one) new basis, with any fractional shares being rounded down to the next whole number. Prior to the consolidation there were 132,308,327 common shares of Bitterroot outstanding, which were consolidated into a total of 13,230,831 common shares. A letter of transmittal in respect of the share consolidation will be available on the Company's website and will also be filed under Bitterroot's profile on SEDAR. Bitterroot's common shares began trading on a post-consolidation basis effective at the opening of the TSX Venture Exchange on September 29, 2015.

 

Immediately following the completion of the share consolidation, Bitterroot settled debts of C$307,702 through the issuance of 3,077,022 post-consolidation common shares at a deemed price of C$0.10 per share.

 

Altius has also subscribed on a private placement basis for 4,051,514 post-consolidation common shares of Bitterroot, priced at C$0.0987 per share for gross proceeds of C$400,000. Upon completion of the share consolidation, the share issuance to Altius and the shares-for-debt settlements, an aggregate of 20,359,367 common shares of Bitterroot are outstanding, of which 19.9% are held by Altius. The common shares issued to Altius and those issued under the debt settlements will be subject to a hold period ending January 30, 2016.

 

Michael Carr, CEO of Bitterroot stated; "I am looking forward to resuming exploration on Bitterroot's 350 square-miles of mineral titles in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in the very near future and working with Altius' exploration team."

 

Additional information on Bitterroot Resources Ltd. is available at www.bitterrootresources.com. Additional information on Altius Minerals Corporation is available at www.altiusminerals.com.

 

 

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS

 

Michael S. Carr

Director

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Thanks for sharing. I doubt that was the cause of the rise today. I think it was just generally oversold and everyone who wanted out got out. I mean, a decline from $12 to $8 on no real news is sizable - and Altius has a history of bouncing off lows to hit $12-14 USD and then head back down again.

 

I was hoping it'd stay low until mid-October when some of my puts expire so I could add to my trading part of the position. That may still happen, but picking up shares sub-$9 USD may now be off the table :/

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So I have been gone for a while but recently bought in again just under 12.

 

I like what I see this time. When they just bought CDP I was a little skeptical since the amount of debt seemed too large however with the purchase of Callinan things have changed considerably. I also like that they have finally got rid of these Sparkfly companies and also van Eden. It is more hard core now and not so much "this and that"

 

The 777 mine has some 8 more years to go but looking at it they seem to prolong the life of it every year. Coal will stay for awhile. Only fools (unfortunately politicians are include in this) will believe other things. It could of course affect short term decisions but when it gets cold people change their minds quickly.

 

I believe we will see a slight increase in royalty revenue the coming years. They will very likely buy into the depressed companies like LIORC or similar. LIORC was valued around 14 CAD per share last time I watched. 19 million spent into buying that would result in roughly 1,35 million shares *0,25 CAD dividend/qtr =337,000 CAD per quarter. This would then be the first iron ore royalty income source diversifying even more while waiting for the market to turn in some 2-5 years. Alderon will be the first one out then and maybe an even better mine as Julienne lake would be. (Better ore)

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

Latest issue of Global Mining Observer has an interesting article on royalty/streaming syndication and suggests some large deals could be in the works with companies like Glencore. Although syndication isn't a brand-new concept--Altius worked with Liberty Mutual to acquire PMRL--I haven't seen as much of that with the big PM players. What ramifications do the wise minds of the Altius thread on CoBF see if large-scale syndication becomes a force in the PM and non-PM royalty/streaming space?

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Rick Rule (Sprott) on Altius:

 

Has a big royalty package. Company has done a phenomenal job. Brian Dalton is a superb businessman. Mr. Dalton has a lot of cash and is an extremely disciplined investor. Has an interest in iron and Labrador...

 

People who can afford the risk of being in the junior mining sector have to own. Fantastic balance sheet and this is an attractive price. Stock is not well known.

Here is the whole interview,

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=741019

 

I confess I only looked at the printed excerpts from here:

http://www.pennyminingstocks.com/rick-rule-on-bnn-market-call-talks-precious-metals-stocks/

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Latest issue of Global Mining Observer has an interesting article on royalty/streaming syndication and suggests some large deals could be in the works with companies like Glencore. Although syndication isn't a brand-new concept--Altius worked with Liberty Mutual to acquire PMRL--I haven't seen as much of that with the big PM players. What ramifications do the wise minds of the Altius thread on CoBF see if large-scale syndication becomes a force in the PM and non-PM royalty/streaming space?

 

Link??

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An article on Altius and Dalton in the Global Mining Observer (September 2015) Not a lot of meat but not zero nutritive value either ;)

 

http://www.globalminingobserver.com/brian-dalton-altius-patience-rewarded-139

 

Thanks for sharing. It is impressive the change that this company has made in just the 2-3 years I've been following it. From cash rich with options on iron ore developments to a massive, diversified royalty company with large FCF and optionality on future developments.

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An article on Altius and Dalton in the Global Mining Observer (September 2015) Not a lot of meat but not zero nutritive value either ;)

 

http://www.globalminingobserver.com/brian-dalton-altius-patience-rewarded-139

 

Thanks for sharing. It is impressive the change that this company has made in just the 2-3 years I've been following it. From cash rich with options on iron ore developments to a massive, diversified royalty company with large FCF and optionality on future developments.

 

And soon they'll be able to buy all of Alderon for a week's royalties! ;)

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