shalab Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It is a good thing. Apparently manufacturing in China didnt contract further but India is expanding. Indian economy is about a third of China's in real terms and has the same characteristics of the U.S economy where the consumer drives demand. http://bit.ly/tIWeWz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Alderon-Appoints-Danny-iw-3281774668.html?x=0 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Williams_(politician) This is very good news! Maybe the best news that we have had in the development of Kami! Most people on the board do not know who Danny Willlims is...google him.. He is extremely tough and gets things done. He is the most connected man in Eastern Canada. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It sure can't hurt to have these kind of political connections! Meanwhile, ADV is back above $3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Danny Williams is a very successful lawyer and businessman as well. Smart guy. His nickname become "Danny Millions" befoe he took office. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernYankee Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 On that Wikipedia page, it mentions the ABC campaign, which seemed to be a rift between the Newfie conservatives and the Stephen Harper-led national conservatives. Is it good to be hiring one of the persons who led that ABC effort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 On that Wikipedia page, it mentions the ABC campaign, which seemed to be a rift between the Newfie conservatives and the Stephen Harper-led national conservatives. Is it good to be hiring one of the persons who led that ABC effort? I might be missing something (does the federal government need to give approvals for ADV to get access to the railroad and to power?), but from what I know, it seems to me like the government that they need most on their side is the local NF/L government, not the Federal government in Ottawa, so I think that should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 http://www.theaurora.ca/News/2010-02-08/article-1563806/Brian-Tobin-weighs-in-as-Bloom-Lake-gets-ready-for-production/1 Looks a lot like what Thompson Consildated did with Brian Tobin former premier of Newfoundland...let's hope we get the same outcome! http://www.theaurora.ca/News/2011-01-25/article-2169503/Consolidated-Thompson-takeover-a-good-sign-for-Labrador-West/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-10/copper-climbs-most-in-a-week-on-record-high-shipments-of-metal-into-china.html Now are we still worried about a china crash? We want altius to be taking advantage of the non sense that is in the market place....they may hit on all cylinders this year when the "china crash worry" subsides and commodities stabilize...especially if they have loaded up with some or all of the $300m in cash equivalents (including Alderon)...quiet is good for now. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Not sure about China (they have enough resources to keep going for the longest time - much longer than the U.S or Europe) but the Indian government came out and said they will reduce interest rates to increase growth. They are saying they are confident of 8-9% growth for the next ten years. You know my take on these forecasts but generally speaking India is coming off a very low base, much lower than China. I still believe China resource consumption is not sustainable if they stop to be the factory for the world or if bunch of jobs come back to the U.S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/india-ironore-idUSL3E8C34V920120103 This along with talk of a tax in australia will bring more attention to Labrador, Alderon and Altius. The world will look for different alternatives...Labrador is proven and has a freindly investment climate. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aADV-1917096&symbol=ADV®ion=C Alderon Iron Ore Corp. has commenced the 2012 winter drilling program at its 100-per-cent-owned Kamistiatusset (Kami) iron ore project in western Labrador. The four month drill program will be focused predominately on North Rose and will include up to 18,000 metres of drilling with six drills. The program will concentrate on infill drilling with the goal of upgrading the current mineral resource into the measured and indicated categories in preparation for the Feasibility Study expected in Q3 2012. "We are excited to get our 2012 program underway and be back drilling on North Rose," says Tayfun Eldem, President and CEO of Alderon. "Our 2011 program was extremely successful and we are looking forward to building on that success as we work to upgrade our resource in advance of completing the Feasibility Study in Q3. The final phase of drilling represents another major milestone in driving Kami through the development stage into production." North Rose, together with Rose Central and Mills Lake, have a currently defined NI 43-101 indicated resource of 490 million tonnes at 30.0% iron and an additional inferred resource of 598 million tonnes at 30.3% iron. The proposed drill hole location map is posted on the Alderon website at: http://www.alderonmining.com/projects/kami/ Alderon's exploration work on the Kami Property is supervised by Edward Lyons, P.Geo., the Chief Geologist for Alderon and a Qualified Person as defined by NI 43-101. Mr. Lyons has reviewed and approved the technical information contained in this news release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This along with talk of a tax in australia will bring more attention to Labrador ... Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Le Plan Nord in Quebec should be good for Labrador as well as they are going to develop transportation and telecommunication infrastructures in that area. http://www.plannord.gouv.qc.ca/english/potentiel/mineral.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pick52 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 TD has initiated coverage on Alderon with a speculative buy rating and a target price of $5.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 TD has initiated coverage on Alderon with a speculative buy rating and a target price of $5.00. $5? Isn't that less than the cash? :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value-is-what-you-get Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 TD has initiated coverage on Alderon with a speculative buy rating and a target price of $5.00. $5? Isn't that less than the cash? :o Yes - Altius cash but the price target is on Alderon! ::) Every dollar in share price for Alderon is approx. $1.12 value to an Altius share (buybacks notwithstanding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yes - Altius cash but the price target is on Alderon! ::) Every dollar in share price for Alderon is approx. $1.12 value to an Altius share (buybacks notwithstanding) My bad, I misread. This is an Altius thread so my brain was expecting this to be about Altius. Sorry about that :-X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric50 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Quick summary below (in $m). It's incredibly cheap.... Cash and marketable securities 175.3 As of Oct 31, 2011 Royal Gold 36.5 529k @ $69. Nasdaq listed (RGLD), precious metal mines Alderon Resource 108.6 32,285k @ $3.3, iron-ore jr, venture listed (ADV.V) Millrock Resources 2.9 7,932k @ $0.47, venture listed exploration specialists in Alaska (MRO.V) JV w/ Cranberry Capital Early stage mineral exploration, book value $25m Voisey Bay Royalty generating $4m+ a year, $10m in the books NLRC Fully w/o, only refinery project in NA approved in years Collection of Royalties free call option 17 exploration projects (12 JV) free call option Worst case scenario valuation 323.3 # of shares 28.9 Current Price 11.2 Current Market Cap 323.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/547026 Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:ADV)(OTCQX:ALDFF) ("Alderon") is pleased to announce that it has entered into a subscription agreement with Liberty Metals & Mining Holdings, LLC ("LMM"), a subsidiary of Liberty Mutual Group. Pursuant to the subscription agreement, LMM will purchase 14,981,273 common shares (the "Purchased Shares") of Alderon on a private placement basis for an aggregate purchase price of approximately C$40 million at a price per Purchased Share of C$2.67 (the "Placement"). The purchase price was based on the volume weighted average price of Alderon's common shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the twenty trading days ended January 11, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value-is-what-you-get Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Quick summary below (in $m). It's incredibly cheap.... Cash and marketable securities 175.3 As of Oct 31, 2011 Royal Gold 36.5 529k @ $69. Nasdaq listed (RGLD), precious metal mines Alderon Resource 108.6 32,285k @ $3.3, iron-ore jr, venture listed (ADV.V) Millrock Resources 2.9 7,932k @ $0.47, venture listed exploration specialists in Alaska (MRO.V) JV w/ Cranberry Capital Early stage mineral exploration, book value $25m Voisey Bay Royalty generating $4m+ a year, $10m in the books NLRC Fully w/o, only refinery project in NA approved in years Collection of Royalties free call option 17 exploration projects (12 JV) free call option Worst case scenario valuation 323.3 # of shares 28.9 Current Price 11.2 Current Market Cap 323.6 I did a DCF calculation on the 3% gross sales royalty on Alderon's Kami project to see what it is actually worth to Altius. Once again, it appears that there is huge value here, and it's not a lot of "what if" value dependent on financing, infrastructure costs, concentrator build out cost increases etc. It's just a straight commission on whatever eventually gets shipped out of there by whatever corporate entity sells it. We're 3 years away from production so you know there could be JV deals with China, share dilution at Alderon (as per todays release) etc and none of it matters - just a net cheque for the selling price per ton x 3% payable to Altius once everything is up and running by whoever gets it up and running. My point is it's calculable future cash flow with a high degree of confidence. Using the assumptions of: 3% royalty on an Annual production of 8 million tons, mine life of 15 years, cash flows not to begin until 2015 and a discount rate of 5% (let me know if I'm out to lunch on that one please!) and a selling price of $100 per ton (for margin of safety) I get a Net Present Value of this one royalty stream to Altius of $215.17 million. If the iron ore price averages $150 it's 1.5 times that amount or $322.8 million (which is approximate current market cap so of course everything else is free at that iron ore price!) If the iron ore price averages $50 it's still worth $107.5 million or approximately the same amount as their shares in Alderon are worth. So the value is there. I would say that at current pricing and even a 5 year horizon there is significant margin of safety in Altius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Value is what yo get, Your numbers are half right....double them. The PEA report is on half of the resource as the 500m+ ton upgrade was after the report was done...these numbers will show up in the feasibility study which should be excellent...that would bring the npv of alder on to over $6b...obviously compensating the billion it will take to build it. So it is now 16m tons a year production.....that is what they applied for from the government...so it everything x2. $430m and $645m.....how is your margin of safety now? As we have said the royalty is worth more than Altius trades for....as Shaleb said a multi bagger ..... Do you see why we are screaming....we are going to get rich here. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The alder on capital seems expensive....but it is the most important capital they will raise....it will take them through to the bankable feasibility study....where they will make deals for production etc...that will finance the production build out. They are on their way. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HJ Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=240 Question: If iron ore prices collapses from here, how should one think about where the downside is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Hj, http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/05/02/207994/grantham-must-read-time-to-wake-up-days-of-abundant-resources-and-falling-prices-are-over-forever/ Grantham comes up with a 1 in 2.2 million chance that iron ore will reverse it's trend. I like those odds.. Besides you ask what is the down side sarcastically....not much considering none of what has been discussed is in the stock price. If we were at $25 where we should be I would be worried about downside risks to the 1 in 2.2 millin chance we reverse course. So actually if we crash as you say...our downside is we pick up everything for 10 cents on the dollar with our quarter of a billion in cash. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Anyone who does not want to read the Grantham piece....the 1 in 2.2 million chance in iron ore reversing it's current trend of pricing in in "exhibit 4" from the post above. Here is where we are today http://www.mbironoreindex.com/ Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now