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http://www.kereport.com/wp-content/uploads/2018_01_19-Christian-Kargl-Simard-Adventus-Zinc.mp3

 

Remarkable interview with Christian Kargl-Simard of Adventus. As clear and intelligent as anyone in the mining industry:

 

1) Adventus discussing consolidation or farm-out deals with majors for the Buchans and Irish properties. Sounds like they are considering combining land packages with neighboring claims holders. News on Buchans will arrive first, then the Irish properties. Q1 to Q2 timeframe. Results from seismic survey in Ireland will be press released soon.

 

2) Exit strategy for Curipamba is proving up a big resource, adding hundreds of millions in value through the drill bit, and selling the property before production. Potential to increase the current 10 million tonne resource by 2X to 5X. An open pit with high poly-metallic grades and 20 million to 50 million tonnes of resources should be highly attractive to a producer. Take the profits, rinse and repeat.

 

3) Looking at more property acquisition deals but Curipamba sets a high bar for quality. I think they may be leaning towards letting Curipamba be the company flagship.

 

4) Still agnostic as to whether they have a zinc project or a gold project at Curipamba. Highlights some extraordinary gold/silver trenching results which Salazar didn’t have the money to drill. Potential for a big precious metals deposit or multiple zinc heavy deposits the size of El Domo.

 

Adventus won’t start the mine engineering design until there’s more certainty of what they have in the ground.

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More from the Adventus interview:

 

1) John Tognetti, chairman of Haywood, personally owns a remarkable 10% of Adventus. This could be a very large score for him. Adventus is his second co-investment with Altius. He owns a minority share of the Prairie royalties package.

 

2) Kargl-Simard expects deals will be signed for some of the Newfoundland and Irish properties and expects drilling in both jurisdictions in 2018. Funded by partners, prospect generator style.

 

3) Adventus entered 2018 with C$14 million in cash. Will spend C$10 million in Curipamba and G&A expenses over the year. Exploration success at Curipamba, and a higher share price, will lead to an equity raise. Will only raise equity at a higher stock price.

 

4) News flow will increase in 2018. At least a press release a month. In the immediate future expect press releases for an updated El Domo resource report, a Buchans consolidation or farm-out deal, and initial Curipamba drill results (possibly by PDAC).

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Most obvious candidate for Adventus to do a consolidation deal with in Ireland is Group 11 Resources, recently listed in Canada. Group 11 just did a US$7 million deal to acquire the Stonepark property from Teck. Stonepark is the neighboring property to Rathkeale, Adventus’s most advanced Irish property.

 

Bart Jaworski, CEO of Group 11, is a recent Raymond James alum like Kargl-Simard. It’s likely Adventus and Group 11 have already cooperated in a cost-sharing deal to bring seismic exploration equipment to Ireland in 2017.

 

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Most obvious candidate for a consolidation deal for the Buchans property is Buchans Resources. They hold a significant land package (with a PEA stage Lundberg zinc deposit) adjacent to Adventus’s claims at Buchans. See slide 18 below for the landholdings in the area for both Adventus, Buchans and Altius:

 

http://www.buchansresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/BRL-PowerPoint-October-2017.pdf

 

Buchans Resources was spun out of Minco Plc and has some sort of agreement with Canadian Zinc, which also has many deposits in the area, to potentially build a shared central milling facility.

 

Buchans Resources, after the takeover of Minco by Dalradian and the “demerger” into Buchans Resources, plans to list on the TSX by June 2018. It makes sense for the property consolidation with Adventus to happen before the public listing.

 

As an Altius shareholder I would be very pleased if the Buchans property went to the former Minco management crew. A very experienced group with a history of multiple discoveries.

 

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Altius, of course, owns 2% royalties on all the properties Adventus potentially farms out in the next few months. Will be a win for Altius to get both Rathkeale and Buchans drilled in 2018.

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https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180125/pdf/43r19ymm18hk6k.pdf

 

Quarterly activity report out for Champion Iron. 30,000 tonnes of ore have been crushed and stockpiled. The processing plant and recovery circuit refurbishments are on budget and on time. March 2018 will be the official Bloom Lake restart.

 

The Altius C$10 million debenture is still in place and earning 8% interest. No early repayment by Champion though early repayment is allowed with the master financing having closed. Champion keeping a tight hold on cash in case of unexpected cost overruns.

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https://anacondamining.com/2018-01-29-Anaconda-Mining-Expands-its-Great-Northern-Project-With-the-Acquisition-of-the-Rattling-Brook-Deposit

 

Anaconda Mining, a small gold producer, acquires the Rattling Brook gold property to supplement its Thor deposit (formerly named the Viking project). Altius owns a 2.5% royalty on Thor and a 1.5% royalty on a surrounding area of interest.

 

The combined Thor/Rattling Brook project will be called the Great Northern project. Anaconda is unusual in that it has put small, narrow vein gold deposits into production.

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Christian Kargl-Simard writes in an email that Adventus could have 35,000+ meters drilled on its properties in 2018. Up to 25,000 meters at Curipamba and 5,000 meters each at Buchans and Rathkeale, after those are joint ventured.

 

There is also a “whole stack” of early stage Ecuador properties ready for the separate Exploration Alliance with Salazar. The Alliance will be funded by Adventus and operated by Salazar. Ownership will be 80% Adventus, 20% Salazar.

 

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The ultimate goal seems to be to establish 20 to 50 million tonnes of reserves at Curipamba at 16% zinc equivalent, produce a bankable feasibility study, then sell the deposit. Sales price? Somewhere between US$200 million and US$500 million based upon previous VMS transactions.

 

At the low end what would be Altius’s take? Adventus gets 75% of the total sale, US$150 million, and Altius gets 27% of that: US$40.5 million or C$50 million.

 

I suspect Kargl-Simard will push hard to get this done in 3 years. The zinc market won’t be hot forever.

 

 

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https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1FJ2EX

 

http://www.mining.com/bidders-500m-canada-streaming-deal-cobalt-price-surges-report/

 

Vale attempting to raise $500 million in a cobalt streaming deal based on future production from Voisey’s Bay. Would be a means of financing the underground development of the mine (open pit runs out in a few years). Franco Nevada, Wheaton Previous Metals, Basecore, Orion and some carmakers are expected to take a look.

 

Vale has an extreme amount of gall. They stopped paying the 3% Voisey’s Bay royalty to Royal Gold and Altius based upon the flimsiest of pretexts. Now they want to sell a much larger stream on the same mine. Trying to cash in before the cobalt bubble bursts. These scoundrels!

 

Buyer beware. Streams have less legal protection than royalties, which run with the land. Royal Gold might be interested in keeping its royalty peers updated on the status of its litigation in the St. John’s Trial Division of Newfoundland.

 

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On the other hand, if you think RG/Altius is going to either triumph at trial or reach a positive settlement before trial, then you want Vale to successfully finance underground development at Voisey’s Bay with a cobalt streaming deal or by other means. An underground mine means 15 or 20 years more royalty income past 2020 for Altius.

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http://www.thetelegram.com/business/ioc-proposing-to-expand-magy-pit-at-labrador-city-operations-180503/

 

IOC permitting a 25 hectare expansion of the Magy pit in the Humphrey South mining area. Aligns with the development of the Wabush 3 pit, which comes online later this year. IOC is prepared to keep incrementally expanding production as its has been doing for the last 5 years.

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https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/adventus-zinc-announces-update-for-el-domo-deposit-mineral-resource-estimate-and-appoints-paul-sweeney-to-its-board-of-directors-672004453.html

 

Adventus delivers a resource update for El Domo.

 

Total resources have increased from 9.96 million tonnes to 11.4 million tonnes, a 14.5% increase. Indicated resources increased 44%.

 

El Domo has 752,000 ounces of gold contained in the deposit. Pretty remarkable for a zinc-focused company.

 

Paul Sweeney, a CFO, is appointed as independent director. Chad Wells of Altius steps down as director.

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Paul B. Sweeney, the new director for Adventus, was CFO for Canico Resources and Sutton Resources.

 

Canico had a nickel project in Brazil and was taken over by Vale for $939 million. Sutton had a gold project in Tanzania and was taken over by Barrick for $350 million. Both takeovers happened with significant premiums for shareholders.

 

I see what kind of expertise Kargl-Simard is looking for with this director appointment. Adventus corporate mandate is clear: Prove up a big resource at Curipamba and sell it to a major for many hundreds of millions.

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http://www.adventuszinc.com/storage/presentations/adzn---corporate-presentation---feb-2018-1517471349.pdf

 

New Adventus Zinc presentation:

 

1) Potential for 40,000 meters of drilling in 2018. 20,000 at Curipamba, 10,000 meters at Rathkeale and another 10,000 meters at Buchans.

 

2) 25 km seismic results at Rathkeale will be released in February.

 

3) Potential for another strategic investment by an industry participant. [smart money support for Adventus is remarkable. Add another C$5 million in the coffers?]

 

4) Will add at least one project to the Salazar Ecuador Exploration Alliance.

 

5) Potential geological models for Curipamba district: Eskay Creek, Hot Maden (gold rich) and Buchans-style VMS.

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Watusi Capital (soon to be Aethon Minerals) files the option agreement with Altius and its Chilean partners on SEDAR.

 

Clarity on the royalty situation:

 

There is an existing 0.98% royalty on the properties owned by Consultora Altius Chile Limited, which according to Altius’s Annual Information Form is a 100% owned subsidiary.

 

A new 1.02% royalty will be  granted to the optioners BLC Spa, Prospex Spa and Calisto Spa (all 49% owned by Altius) once the properties are transferred to Aethon Minerals.

 

So Altius will hold an effective 1.48% on the 12 Aethon properties. (Much better than the effective 0.5% royalty I thought they would receive.)

 

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Deal should close by the end of February. Just waiting for the Sprott financing. Watusi had $478K in cash at the end of November. If Sprott raises the max amount Aethon will start life with a little over C$8 million in its coffers.

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http://www.evrimresources.com/s/news-releases.asp?ReportID=815736

 

New staking to expand Evrim’s Cuale project. Evrim management calls Cuale “one of the most exciting grass-roots exploration projects to have surfaced in Mexico in recent history.” Target is a high sulphidation multi-million ounce gold deposit.

 

Additional trenching, mapping, sampling and an IP survey begins in February.

 

Altius’s 1.5% royalty likely applies to the newly staked areas, too. Typical royalty agreements apply to an area of interest immediately outside the original boundaries of the claim.

 

Evrim taking Cuale on as a stand-alone project, instead of farming it out, is ideal. They can drill the project themselves this year.

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https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/iron-ore-company-tacora-resources-files-for-mining-ipo-on-tsx/article37867565/

 

Tacora Resources is trying to launch an IPO on the TSX to restart the Wabush Mine, next to Alderon’s Kami. $205.5 million capex required to restart the mine, part of which is supposed to come from debt financing in addition to the IPO funds.

 

Mine scheduled to open 1 year after the IPO.

 

I would be surprised if this proceeds smoothly. Wabush Mine has high impurities (manganese) and high historical costs, and there’s not that much mine life left. Is that what Canadian resource investors want? We shall see.

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Paladin Energy has been restructured and will return to trading on the ASX. The equity shareholders were mostly wiped out.

 

Paladin has retained 100% of the Michelin uranium property in Labrador (Altius 2% royalty), though Deutsche Bank now holds security over 60% of the property. Exploration programs are planned for the India, Gear, and Nash deposits at Michelin.

 

The process shows the Michelin deposit still has long-term option value. Large organizations like French nuclear utility EDF and Deutsche Bank have tussled over the property. It must mean something.

 

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Adventus Zinc and Buchans Resources have cooperated in the past. Buchans reported in its 3Q:

 

"A helicopter airborne geophysical survey of the Buchans property using the SkyTEM helicopter TDEM system

was completed in June in co-operation with Adventus Zinc Corporation which holds adjoining properties."

 

Expect news of a land consolidation/farm-out agreement between the two groups for their respective Buchans properties.

 

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Adventus will be on a panel with Group 11 at PDAC 2018. Adventus and Group 11 likely shared expenses on a seismic survey in 2017. Consolidation/farm-out is coming for the Rathkeale property also.

 

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Kargl-Simard is working his best resource: his industry relationships.

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https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PXX/01948354.pdf

 

PolarX uses fire screen assay method for coarse, nuggety gold to bring up Zackly grades to 2.7 g/t gold. Will apply same assay method to native copper assays and the 6 remaining drill holes yet to be reported. A new JORC-compliant resource for the Zackly deposit will be delivered in Q1. Altius holds a 2% royalty.

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https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2018/01/22/10185554/global-potash-prices-to-continue-steady-recovery-in-2018-bernstein/?redirect=english

 

Potash outlook for 2018: strong demand, producer discipline on the supply side, and higher prices expected.

 

Demand grew by 4% in 2017, expected to grow 2.5% in 2018. Farmer net income improving so they can afford the quality nutrients.

 

On the supply side ramp-ups of new supply has been slow. Nutrien and other producers have also idled higher cost mines.

 

Market balance will allow producers to slowly increase price. This analyst’s year-end target price for potash is $330 per tonne CFR Brazil.

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https://www.nutrien.com/sites/default/files/2018-02/Nutrien%20Q4%202017%20Results%20Presentation%202018-02-05.pdf

 

Nutrien (merger of Potash Corp and Agrium) announces Q4 results and 2018 guidance.

 

Combined potash sales for 2017 is 11.7 million tonnes. 2018 guidance is 11.8 to 12.4 million tonnes, so 1% to 6% growth in sales is guided.

 

In slide 11 you can see the potash price CFR Brazil averaged around $250 per tonne 2017. If the analyst prediction of $330 per tonne by year-end 2018 proves correct that would be a 32% increase in price.

 

You can see how this plays out for Altius. A potential 6% increase in sales plus a 32% increase in price could push Altius’s potash revenue from C$7.5 million a year to C$10.5 million a year.  And we are still closer to the bottom of the cycle than the top.

 

(Altius potash revenue for the 2 month mini-quarter was C$1.254. C$1.254 x 6 = C$7.524 on annual basis.)

 

C$10 million a year for the next 100 years = C$1 billion in revenues. These must be the longest life royalties in the mining business.

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Copper's dropped in recent days from $3.23 to $3.06 this morning. The brightside is that the copper price stays significantly below the copper incentive price for building new mines. The incentive price has been estimated to be between $3.50 and $3.75.

 

What's going to end the copper bull market is the copper spot price shooting up to $4 or $5 and lots of new copper mines being built as a result.

 

There's probably a sweet spot around $3 copper where Altius collects excellent revenue from Chapada and 777 without worrying about new supply. Dalton believes this kind of bull market could last 10 or 15 years. A sustained period of $5 copper will end the bull market pretty quickly.

 

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Zinc is trading slightly above the estimated incentive price of $1.50. New supply has been incentivized. Zinc bull might only last 2 or 3 more years. Adventus Zinc could be renamed Adventus Minerals by then.

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