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ALS.TO - Altius Minerals


Guest Dazel

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Don't you think they are sitting on too much cash? Do they need the cash for some sort of cap exp? or they are waiting for deals?

 

They spend very little and that's pretty much covered by their Voisey's Bay royalty anyway. They are sitting on the cash waiting for opportunities to deploy it when conditions are right, as they've done in the past. Note that the cash is self-generated and not raised from the equity market or debt..

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did they deploy any during last Oct - Dec?

 

I don't think they did, I see some buybacks but very light, probably constrained by the volume.

 

Buybacks are indeed limited by volume.

 

I think they probably did deploy some cash during the last period of volatility (probably some via the partnership with Paul Van Eeden), but I have no idea where yet. They haven't disclosed anything so far, but they were pretty gung ho about it:

 

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page66?oid=133091&sn=Detail

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Don t mind the large cash position at all.

 

In fact it gives me confidence in the underlying value.

 

Someone made point with RIM-they made all this profit + cash but when you looked at the balance sheet there was not a lot of cash there. 

 

For me a lot of cash=safety and hedges the risk of there other assets (if economy does well, get asset reflation, price of iron stays or goes up resulting in Alderon doing real well VS downturn, asset deflation/economic turmoil will allow ALS to pick up bargains with their cash balance)

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Guest Dazel

http://www.mbironoreindex.com/

 

 

For all the noise about China...iron ore prices are solid... they are back close to $150....remember the Australian mining tax coming up will help Altius and Alderon...it evens the playing field a little with the geographic location advantage that Aussie miners have with china....Alderon' bankable feasibility study will extremely good at these iron ore prices.

 

Dazel.

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Guest Dazel

http://www.businessinsider.com/fatal-flaws-and-opportunities-in-gold-investing-brent-cook-2012-3

 

Enjoy.

A good interview with Brent Cook....he has some comments about Altius and Alderon...that are similar to board members...however, he is a world renowned geologist and investor...that is the credibility that I like with respect to Altius and Alderon's assets.

 

"You are paying nothing for the upside in Altius, which kind of reminds me of the late 90's"

 

Dazel.

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Buyback by Altius:

 

http://www.altiusminerals.com/files/PR0512-NCIB.pdf

 

I like companies doing buyback compared to dividend.

 

That's just their authorization, afaik. They had the same thing last year. The main limiting factor on their buybacks is daily volume. They did a bunch a few months ago, but I'm sure they wish they could've gotten more at those prices (around $10).

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For all the noise about China...iron ore prices are solid... they are back close to $150....remember the Australian mining tax coming up will help Altius and Alderon...it evens the playing field a little with the geographic location advantage that Aussie miners have with china....Alderon' bankable feasibility study will extremely good at these iron ore prices.

 

Dazel.

 

hmmmm. do you contemplate at least the possiblity of weaker iron ore pricing, & how would that affect your valuation analysis of altius?

 

"Going forward, analysts are forecasting significant supply-side

growth – cumulatively around 400 million tonnes (mt) between 2011

and 2016. Iron ore demand, on the other hand, is only expected to

grow at 250-300mt over the same period. As a result consensus

estimates have iron ore prices coming down to a long term price of

around US$75/t from as early as 2016 onwards."

 

http://www.blackrockinternational.com/content/groups/internationalsite/documents/literature/1111140869.pdf

 

 

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Guest Dazel

 

Link01,

 

 

Altius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I can find you reports that will say iron ore will be $200 a ton too...I think they are also useless.

China's slow down has slowed down iron ore production....brazil produced less in 2011... I am comfortable with $118... I do not want to see anything above $150 because it does not help long term.

China will build out their infrastructure for the super power of an economy you can be sure...there WILL be hiccups as there is now...but we are in the Jeremy Grantham camp that puts iron ore trend reversal odds of 2 million to one...we like those odds. However, I can not tell you what the price of iron ore will be in 2016.... But more importantly no one else can either.

 

The best part is we do not have to pay for any risk at Altius...it is in the price already!!

 

Dazel

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quotesAltius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I

 

thx, dazel.

 

i was just curious as to how much you have baked in various worst case scenario's into your thesis since a worldwide deflationary risk outcome is still very much a possibility. and even absent that extreme, iron ore seems to have alot of new capacity coming online in combo with a china deceleration at the margin, & possibly much worse than that.

 

and then there's some plausible calls for an end to the commodity super cycle in general like this one:

 

"China had a massive surge in its demand for commodities over the past decade, fueled by its housing boom and infrastructure investment boom. From 2000 to 2010, China’s imports (in value terms) of iron ore surged by 42.5 times, thermal coal 248 times and copper 16.2 times. During the same period, its production (in quantity terms) for aluminum jumped by 441.8%, cement 219.5% and steel 396.0%. It is the biggest consumer in virtually all commodity categories in the world. In Credit Suisse's view, China was the key factor behind the global commodity supercycle. After a period of economic slowdown, all eyes are on China, hoping that the middle kingdom can return to its might in commodity demand. CS cuts through all the cyclical factors and asks whether China's mighty demand for commodities will return in the medium term - their answer is 'No'. As the economy shifts its growth engines away from infrastructure, construction and exports toward consumption, especially service consumption, the propensity of demand for commodities is bound to decline."

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-and-end-commodity-super-cycle

 

sorry to link to those anarchistic ideologues at zerohedge, but they do sometimes link to interesting outside research that is worth a read if you can ignore their own crazy talk, end of the world wishing biased commentary.

 

 

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Dazel

 

Do you know they calculate those odds ? Game theory ??

 

Thanks

 

GK

 

 

Link01,

 

 

Altius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I can find you reports that will say iron ore will be $200 a ton too...I think they are also useless.

China's slow down has slowed down iron ore production....brazil produced less in 2011... I am comfortable with $118... I do not want to see anything above $150 because it does not help long term.

China will build out their infrastructure for the super power of an economy you can be sure...there WILL be hiccups as there is now...but we are in the Jeremy Grantham camp that puts iron ore trend reversal odds of 2 million to one...we like those odds. However, I can not tell you what the price of iron ore will be in 2016.... But more importantly no one else can either.

 

The best part is we do not have to pay for any risk at Altius...it is in the price already!!

 

Dazel

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Dazel

 

Do you know they calculate those odds ? Game theory ??

 

Thanks

 

GK

 

 

Link01,

 

 

Altius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I can find you reports that will say iron ore will be $200 a ton too...I think they are also useless.

China's slow down has slowed down iron ore production....brazil produced less in 2011... I am comfortable with $118... I do not want to see anything above $150 because it does not help long term.

China will build out their infrastructure for the super power of an economy you can be sure...there WILL be hiccups as there is now...but we are in the Jeremy Grantham camp that puts iron ore trend reversal odds of 2 million to one...we like those odds. However, I can not tell you what the price of iron ore will be in 2016.... But more importantly no one else can either.

 

The best part is we do not have to pay for any risk at Altius...it is in the price already!!

 

Dazel

 

I've been wondering exactly what they meant as well.  I think that iron ore has had the biggest percentage increase of any commodity (>1000&) which is my guess about why iron ore leads their list of paradigm shifts for commodity prices....

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