linealdin Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 The majority of Hebei’s investment in Alderon and Kami closed AFTER the results of the first bankable feasibility study were announced in January 2013. Any steelmaker or commodity trading house looking to invest a significant amount in Alderon/Kami will need some kind of board or government approval. The revised feasibility study delivered by a reputable and independent engineering group, showing a healthy NPV and reasonable capex, will help gain that approval. The commissioning of the feasibility study and China trip suggests more dealmaking is in the works for 2018. I firmly believe new strategic investments will precede any attempt to organize bank construction financing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 Altius’s cost basis in Alderon is still only around C$8 million. That includes early exploration costs, buying the Liberty Metals shares, and various sales and buys in the open market. Even if Alderon gave up trying to build the mine and firesold itself to Hebei for, let’s say, a modest C$80 million Altius would still be making a killing on its investment: a 300% gain. And the royalty, of course, is there forever. Hard to see Altius losing in any Kami scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 IRON's convertible matures at Dec 31. One of the possibilities is a partner putting up replacement financing. A favourable engineering update does not automatically mean a mine on this cycle. It may simply be a due-diligence requirement, ahead of any further 'platform' investment. Given the possibilities in play, it's unlikely that ALS would alter their equity position prior to the convertible maturing. To many, that large equity stake exists to protect the royalty until a mine is actually in production. The stake will also be worth many times its value today, once Kami's ore starts crossing the pier - sometime in the future. Obviously, we wish them well. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 The majority of Hebeis investment in Alderon and Kami closed AFTER the results of the first bankable feasibility study were announced in January 2013. Any steelmaker or commodity trading house looking to invest a significant amount in Alderon/Kami will need some kind of board or government approval. The revised feasibility study delivered by a reputable and independent engineering group, showing a healthy NPV and reasonable capex, will help gain that approval. The commissioning of the feasibility study and China trip suggests more dealmaking is in the works for 2018. I firmly believe new strategic investments will precede any attempt to organize bank construction financing. Isn't the crazy offtake agreement with Glencore a barrier to getting a new strategic partner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 The majority of Hebei’s investment in Alderon and Kami closed AFTER the results of the first bankable feasibility study were announced in January 2013. Any steelmaker or commodity trading house looking to invest a significant amount in Alderon/Kami will need some kind of board or government approval. The revised feasibility study delivered by a reputable and independent engineering group, showing a healthy NPV and reasonable capex, will help gain that approval. The commissioning of the feasibility study and China trip suggests more dealmaking is in the works for 2018. I firmly believe new strategic investments will precede any attempt to organize bank construction financing. Isn't the crazy offtake agreement with Glencore a barrier to getting a new strategic partner? Glencore deal was unfortunate. Offtake rights do matter but they are not the whole game. We have to look at the example of Bloom Lake. Only Sojitz and Glencore own offtake rights on Bloom Lake. But there are numerous other strategic investors who own no offtake rights: Ressources Quebec owns 36.8% of Bloom Lake on project level, Caisse de Depot, Sprott Resource Lending, Resource Capital Funds (recently exited), Wynnchurch Capital and even Altius with its debenture. As Kami moves closer to a financing package its list of strategic investors should expand in the same way. If the project is actually attractive then greed will overcome fear. The new feasibility study will make the case to investors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 Nice little pop to 33 cents for Alderon. Altius's 51,838,916 shares worth C$17.1 million at that level. It won't take much of a runup for Altius's position to become very valuable. Out of the Big 4 iron ore producers (BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, Fortescue) all but Rio Tinto have missed their Q1 production targets. And another big producer, Anglo-American had a shutdown at its Minas-Rio mine because of a pipeline leak. So the market certainly won't be flooded with supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/aethon-minerals-announces-completion-of-qualifying-transaction-and-anticipated-date-of-trading-680993011.html Aethon announces that its qualifying transaction is completed. Trading will begin on May 3rd. Some quotes in the press release from CEO Robert Davies and Brian Dalton. “Several new opportunities identified.” Sounds like they will try to use their Altius Chile assets as a base to acquire a more advanced project (just like Adventus). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 The majority of Hebeis investment in Alderon and Kami closed AFTER the results of the first bankable feasibility study were announced in January 2013. Any steelmaker or commodity trading house looking to invest a significant amount in Alderon/Kami will need some kind of board or government approval. The revised feasibility study delivered by a reputable and independent engineering group, showing a healthy NPV and reasonable capex, will help gain that approval. The commissioning of the feasibility study and China trip suggests more dealmaking is in the works for 2018. I firmly believe new strategic investments will precede any attempt to organize bank construction financing. Isn't the crazy offtake agreement with Glencore a barrier to getting a new strategic partner? Glencore deal was unfortunate. Offtake rights do matter but they are not the whole game. We have to look at the example of Bloom Lake. Only Sojitz and Glencore own offtake rights on Bloom Lake. But there are numerous other strategic investors who own no offtake rights: Ressources Quebec owns 36.8% of Bloom Lake on project level, Caisse de Depot, Sprott Resource Lending, Resource Capital Funds (recently exited), Wynnchurch Capital and even Altius with its debenture. As Kami moves closer to a financing package its list of strategic investors should expand in the same way. If the project is actually attractive then greed will overcome fear. The new feasibility study will make the case to investors. It's just hard to see now why any other steelmakers would be interested in investing given that all the ore is promised to Hebei and Glencore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Most likely strategic investors for Alderon are private equity groups or resource funds. On the project level the easiest path is Hebei increasing its 25% stake in Kami. Or making room for another steelmaker. A deal can be worked out involving offtake. Hebei under government pressure recently spent billions modernizing its steelmaking operations to run cleanly. They need high grade ore that will not pollute. It is in their self-interest to push Kami towards development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 "It's just hard to see now why any other steelmakers would be interested in investing given that all the ore is promised to Hebei and Glencore." Hebei & Gllencore get nothing if there is no mine - they are also steelmakers, & not mine operators. We also know that it will take 2 years+ (if everything works) to put Kami into production. Everyone around the table is going to have to be flexible, including the equity holders. Promoters will be pushing the short-term view; optimism, the employment that construction will bring, benefit to the community, etc. Investors will be taking the long-term view; no returns until ore starts crossing the pier, 2 years+ after construction starts .... + 'X' years from today until construction starts. Very different viewpoints. Anybody's guess as to what the iron ore market looks like, 3 years + from today; the earlier time that Kami could start delivering. That is of course the nature of the mining business. But in 3 years the other miners in the trench will also be loading significant quantities of high grade ore, and to sell - it will have to be displacing cheaper (albeit less rich) Australian ore. Our own view is that Kami WILL be built - but not on this cycle. It simply makes far more sense to build during the next down-cycle (lower costs + sustainable employment), and allow the other miners in the trough the time to recover their existing capital investments (3-4 year paybacks?) .. potentially for redployment into Kami. Just a different POV SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 https://www.google.com/amp/thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/nutrien-to-issue-1300-temporary-layoffs-amid-railway-backlog/amp Nutrien to lay off 1300 workers at the Allan and Vanscoy potash mines. Those mines had already slowed down. Altius only received C$33K combined from those mines in the November/December two- month quarter. Sensible supply management like this will support the potash price. Nutrien will obviously ramp up production at Rocanville to make up for some of the volume. Huge net positive for Altius. We should see monstrous revenue from Rocanville in 2018. Some possibility of a CP rail strike temporarily shutting down all potash shipments from the province. This is just something that happens every 5 years (like the IOC labor issues). Never easy in mining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Meeting on June 5th/6th at the Canada Industrial Relations Board to hash out what “essential services” the IOC steelworkers union in Sept-Iles will have to provide for the QNS&L railway. Champion Iron uses the QNS&L railway but has their own port. Michael O’Keeffe emailed me that he expects NO disruption to Bloom Lake’s port or rail operations related to the IOC strike. He does hope that the conflict is settled soon and does not escalate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Adventus stock price bouncing up and down. Today it is up 39.3% to 85 cents. Curious. This Curipamba drill collar location map was recently uploaded to Adventus's website. http://www.adventuszinc.com/storage/related-items/el-domo-ddhs---planmap-collar-locations---2018-04-20-1524766098.pdf Results for only 4 holes released so far. I count 18 holes that are completed or in progress but for which no assay results have been published. A lot of news forthcoming. Sometimes word of a really good hole leaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/mining-news/newswire/45903-altius-minerals-completes-spinout-of-large-chilean-land-package-into-junior-explorer-aethon-minerals.html A press release with a little more color on the Aethon land packages. Antofagasta and Anglo American exploring claims contiguous with the Arcas project. The Maricunga projects are near the massive Norte Abierto gold/copper mine being developed by Goldcorp and Barrick. This is the land of giants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 http://www.northernpen.ca/business/gold-drilling-near-bishops-falls-to-begin-by-june-205765/ A sweet local newspaper article about the upcoming drill program at Sokoman’s Moosehead Gold, which has some of the highest grade gold occurrences in the province. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 adventus/salazar drill results https://ceo.ca/@newswire/adventus-and-salazar-announce-initial-drill-results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 adventus/salazar drill results https://ceo.ca/@newswire/adventus-and-salazar-announce-initial-drill-results So the Adventus 39% move up on Friday may have been because these results leaked: CURI-254 intersected 11.56 metres of 3.65 g/t gold and 77.2 g/t silver; and CURI-254A intersected 19.88 metres of 4.30 g/t gold and 95.1 g/t silver. Game on for Adventus. These aren’t infill drilling results. This is a real discovery. Sesmo is close enough to El Domo (800 meters away) that these results will eventually be incorporated in El Domo’s expanded reserves and resources. Very close to surface so open pittable. The drilling results are similar to the precious metals results at El Domo, not nearly as good as the surface trenching grades for Sesmo (39 g/t gold, 741 g/t silver). Hopefully there is even richer mineralization to be drilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 The two Adventus holes were collared at the same spot, just drilled from different angles. The first hole probably would have hit 20 meters of mineralization like the second hole but there were drilling difficulties. So it’s really just one good data point. Very excited to see the follow up drill hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 http://www.adventuszinc.com/storage/presentations/adzn---corporate-presentation---may-2018-final-1525092135.pdf New Adventus presentation. Slide 12 shows a visualization of the two Sesmo drill holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 http://www.constantinemetals.com/news/index.php?content_id=261 Altius participates in a C$10 million capital raise for Constantine Metals. Altius participation looks like C$1 million to C$2 million? Investing alongside John Tognetti (big Altius shareholder who also directly owns a small portion of the Prairie coal & potash royalties). Constantine has been in the Altius project generation portfolio for a long time. Their flagship project is a copper-zinc-silver project in Alaska and they are spinning out some gold assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Alderon hits 37 cents in early trading. Altius position worth C$19.18 million at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 http://www.rengold.com/i/pdf/2018-05-01-nr-ren-R4jL7P.pdf Renaissance Gold reports that Anglogold Ashanti has completed 3 holes of 1145 meters on the Silicon gold property in Nevada, of a planned 3000 meter drill program. Assays pending. Altius holds a 1.5% royalty on the Silicon property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 canex signs LOI to possibly acquire 5 properties from altius https://ceo.ca/@fscwire/canex-metals-inc-signs-letter-of-intent-to-acquire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Going back to the well with Shane Ebert’s Canex Metals. Altius obviously believes in Ebert’s project generation and exploration skills. Canex had C$250K in cash at the end of December, along with C$350K in shares of other juniors. They are going to need to raise C$750K in this upcoming financing to do their 2018 program: Drilling Gibson, C$100K exploration at Ace, and $30K each at the other 4 properties. If all the property options are completed Altius will receive 2.5 million Canex shares and a 1.75% royalty on each property, along with a potential 7.5 million bonus shares. Canex market cap is only C$1.13 million. There’s plenty of upside if a discovery is made. Altius is getting the shares cheap. * The grab sample of 17,952 g/t silver at the Ace property seems remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 http://www.evrimresources.com/i/pdf/ppt/Presentation.pdf New Evrim presentation with 9 slides on the Cuale project. It is the new flagship project. There’s an assertion that the La Gloria zone, where the great trenching results come from, is a small part of a larger alteration zone of 2200 x 1500 meters. There’s been some debate on the blogs about the size of the alteration zone. Bigger zone = potentially larger resource. Analyst visit to the Cuale site taking place today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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