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http://www.adventuszinc.com/news/122503

 

Adventus adds a new project, Santiago, to the Ecuador exploration alliance. Some very high grade chip sampling (2 meters of 28 g/t gold and 231 g/t silver). Former Newmont property.

 

The Santiago property Adventus optioned has significant drill results from Newmont: from surface 323 meters of 0.37% gold and 0.23% of copper, for example. Lots of long intercepts of low grade copper and gold. See this Salazar presentation from a few years ago:

 

http://salazarresources.com/docs/SRL_PPT_Aug16_2013.pdf

 

They are low grades, but similar to large, low grade deposits like Chapada, which has reserves grading at 0.20% gold and 0.25% copper. So the low Santiago property drill grades could be economic in the right circumstances.

 

Those numbers should be 0.2 g/t of gold, which isn't 0.2%.

 

0.2% would be 2000 g/t, which would probably be the best gold mine in the world.

 

Just a quibble, as your commentary about the grades is correct, but it makes it a bit confusing to have the units wrong.

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https://www.platts.com/latest-news/shipping/london/rio-tintos-canadian-ioc-iron-ore-shipments-may-26966587

 

IOC concentrate production and shipping begins immediately. Pellet shipments will take another 3 weeks to go from plant to port.

 

Customers are hungry. They may take smaller than capesize shiploads as quick restocking is prioritized.

 

Brazil iron ore miner CSN, which supplies the high grade market, is having production problems because of the nationwide trucker's strike. (I expect Chapada to eventually feel the effects of this strike, too.)

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https://www.pehub.com/canada/2018/05/proterras-tacora-resources-seeks-144-mln-public-debut/#

 

Tacora is trying for IPO of C$125 million to a max of C$144 million by offering shares of $16 to $19 per unit. Final pricing in June. If successful Tacora expects market cap of C$379 million to C$427 million after IPO.

 

What’s Alderon’s market cap??? Morabito made a HUGE blunder not making a more serious bid for Wabush.

 

In hindsight: Acquiring the Wabush processing facility, and paying for improvements, would have brought Kami into production in 2018. It would have been the key to the kingdom.

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The lesson might be for ALS to take smaller face value economics in exchange for better partners. I'd be pretty happy with a 1/2% less royalty on Kami if they had given it to O'Keefe instead and it was producing right now...

 

O’Keeffe’s best quality is his ability to pivot. His first foray into the Trough was the unsuccessful Snelgrove Lake project (Altius joint venture), then the merger with Champion (which didn’t do very much), finally the masterstroke of buying Bloom Lake for C$10 million. He wasn’t put off by his initial failures, just kept doing better and better deals.

 

These Alderon cats lack imagination. Their “plan” is that a group of banks will just decide to give them $1 billion.

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I would love to know more about the extent of Altius' involvement in the running of Alderon. A lot of us blame the incompetence of Morabito for various mistakes or lost opportunities, which is surely right. However, over the last several years has Dalton been making suggestions that Morabito has ignored? If Morabito is so incompetent why have the major shareholders of Alderon not removed him?

 

If Morabito is to blame for everything other than the collapse in iron ore prices, you surely have to conclude that Dalton/Altius should have done more to address this problem. Maybe their recent increase in ownership is an attempt to do just that. I guess we will see.

 

N.

 

 

 

 

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I would be interested to know during the Wabush discussions how involved Altius was. That was a huge missed opportunity. The premium ore spread expansion is a fairly recent phenomenon, though, so it seems to me Altius could have viewed Alderon/Kami as an asset that would likely collect dust on the shelf for many years and thus taken a more hands-off approach reasoning there weren't a lot of ways to catalyze a favorable outcome in this environment.

 

I don't dispute Altius and major shareholders should have done more. I suspect Altius would say the same.

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Altius had no board positions at Alderon for a number of years. That limited their influence and access.

 

I don’t think Alderon was in a position to outbid Champion for the Bloom Lake property. Champion was in a better financial position while Alderon was in cash preservation mode (and deeply in debt to Liberty and to the Port). The deal cost C$10.5 million, out of reach for Alderon at that point. O’Keeffe claims maintenance costs at Bloom Lake were over $1 million a month.

 

Alderon was in perfect position to acquire Wabush. They were the locals with interests next door. Tacora was from the U.S. Purchase price was a little over a million.

 

Morabito decided the best PR strategy was to tell the newspapers that Wabush would never be mined again, and that it should be given to Alderon for free to use as a garbage dump. (And he sued the province for not agreeing with him that Wabush should serve as a garbage dump.) Tacora promised to put the Wabush workers and the facility back to work.

 

Not surprising which bid was chosen.

 

Do I think Altius advised Morabito act like an aggressive idiot? No I don’t.

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Taking a look at these Adventus drill results. The stepout drill holes from the southern end of the El Domo resource all missed. The infill drilling is fine, as expected.

 

A lot of activity and effort but the one good result is the drill hole at Sesmo (19.88 meters at 4.3 g/t gold and 95.1 g/t silver). Sesmo looks like it will be one of the smaller satellite deposits to El Domo. These VMS deposits can cluster in groups of 6 or more.

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Champion has steelmaker groups on site at Bloom Lake looking at Phase 2 expansion possibilities. (Or they could invest in Phase 1 of Kami.)

 

Tacora restarting production at a nice, high C$400 million market cap makes them a natural acquirer for Kami. Neighboring property, big resource with no manganese, would increase mine life or allow for Phase 2 expansion of Wabush.

 

Ultimate revenge: the tailings dump takes out Morabito.

 

Altius and allies now have enough shares to push through a sale if a legit buyer offers C$80 million or more.

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http://altiusminerals.com/uploads/Blue-Sky---Altius-Presentation-FINAL.pdf

 

Presentation on the rationale for Blue Sky. I assume many other Altius investors have expressed their skepticism in recent weeks. Hence the need to make the case.

 

I don’t see the point of making the case. Just close deals. Everyone understands what a good royalty deal looks like when the details are revealed.

 

It could be a royalty on sunlight or salt. It doesn’t matter as long as the revenue is long-lasting, the producer is low cost, and the terms are accretive.

 

Greed will trump skepticism. You will love the actual renewable royalty deals when they are announced. I’m certain of that.

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http://altiusminerals.com/uploads/Blue-Sky---Altius-Presentation-FINAL.pdf

 

Some insights from the presentation not previously brought up:

 

1) Electrification as the megatrend for this commodity bull cycle, as China was the megatrend for the last bull cycle. A powerful idea with a lot of implications.

 

2) Altius has a particular view of the world and invests accordingly. Electrification will require mountains of copper and renewable energy. Air pollution problems in China will require more electrification, more renewable energy, more battery metals for electric vehicles, and higher grade, cleaner iron ore. Hence the focus on copper, nickel, Trough iron ore, and renewable energy.

 

3) Nuclear is getting destroyed on cost by solar and wind. I expect zero forward investment by Altius in uranium royalties or exploration projects. Even if uranium looks like it is at the bottom of a cycle. Nuclear may be the horse & buggy of this century. Same goes for thermal coal.

 

4) Altius expects another C$120 million from the electric coal royalties (excluding the Cheviot met coal royalty).

 

5) Royalty financing for renewable energy could partially replace tax equity investors who have been hurt by changes in U.S. tax law.

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Commodity bias:

 

Mining investors would rather own a gold royalty paying $16 million a year for the next 10 years over a potash royalty paying $16 million a year for the next 100 years.

 

Those same investors would rather own a oil royalty package paying $10 million a year for the next 10 years over a solar/wind royalty paying $10 million a year for the next 60 years.

 

Gold and oil have an aura, a mythos, developed over time. The market does give you credit for that aura (look at the multiples the gold and oil royalty companies get). Gold and black gold.

 

Contrarians have to look for value in other areas.

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http://www.cbc.ca/listen/shows/labrador-morning/episode/15547976

 

Tayfun Eldem continues the media tour talking up the new JobsforNL promotion and Kami financing timelines:

 

1) The potential financiers required the updated feasibility study. It will be the basis for their investment.

 

2) Eldem did meet with banks on his recent trip to China.

 

3) Financing window beginning in October 2018 (when feasibility will have been delivered) is somewhere between 6 and 18 months.

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