mikek Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 "Excelsior said back in March that they expect the final permits by the end of Q2 2018. They’ve issued a press release today to say they STILL expect it by the end of Q2. Comical. They are going to look pretty stupid if they don’t get it. Trump admin agencies like the EPA are supposed to be cutting red tape and regulations. In reality they are understaffed and incompetent. This is a mining-friendly administration? Sucking the life out of these projects." I think Altius has to take that extra 0.5 % royalty on that project if they get that final permit and the 50% funding. It seems like a no brainer to risk that 5 million like you said Linealdin. Copper has too good of a future to not take that chance. If Altius wins the upcoming trial on VB I would double the dividend overnight if I were Altius. The potash royalties today could cover a doubling of the dividend right now. Potash royalties should be in the 14-16 million per year range and I fully expect those to continue to increase over time. I think you continue to get small price increases and volume increase as time goes on. Hopefully the refi on debt is in the very near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2018/06/20/10233046/the-race-is-on-as-china-and-india-potash-contract-talks-pick-up-the-pace/ Potash prices are about to make a big move. Producers are negotiating with China and India now on the potash price for next year. Producers targeting US$300, a 30% increase over the 2017-18 price. Supply seems to have become an issue. It is unlikely that there’s enough potash, even at max production capacity, to fulfill the total needs of China and India. Potash in Brazil already trading above US$300 with brisk demand. * Potash bottomed around US$210 in 2016. It improved to around US$230. Now the big leap to over $300. Altius believes the incentive price for potash is US$500. I think Altius again caught the bottom of the cycle with the Liberty Potash and McChip deals. That C$16 million in Altius annual potash revenue could improve to C$21 million with the 30% price bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikek Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Yeah I give Altius management a lot of push back but that latest potash purchase was quite good. These potash royalties are likely to big huge wins over time. The cost of purchasing royalties in the last year and half has gone up quite a bit and they were able to close this latest potash purchase at a very good price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 http://www.alderonironore.com/news/2018/482-sprott-us-14-million-loan-facility-positions-alderon-s-high-grade-iron-ore-kami-project-for-continued-re-boot Sprott refinancing the Liberty loan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 nostradamus posting http://www.alderonironore.com/news/2018/482-sprott-us-14-million-loan-facility-positions-alderon-s-high-grade-iron-ore-kami-project-for-continued-re-boot Sprott refinancing the Liberty loan. also, the NR makes clear that altius is supplying $2 million of the $14 million dollar loan and will receive additional shares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Sprott Resource Lending is obviously a big believer in the Labrador Trough. They gave a US$80 million senior secured loan to Champion for its mine restart. If Alderon is able to cobble together a construction financing package Sprott is likely to be part of the mix. Small change for Altius but the terms are favorable. US$2 million, or C$2.66 million, at 10% interest for 18 months. That yields C$400k in interest for that period. They also receive US$150,000, or C$200,000, in bonus shares priced at a 10% discount = roughly 675,000 Alderon shares Their total Alderon shares increases to ~52.5 million shares. Altius is being careful by partnering with Sprott. Their exposure is minimized if the financing package fails and the Sprott/Altius loan can’t immediately be repaid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/antler-gold-arranges-brokered-financing-686136201.html Antler Gold does a good job of raising C$792k. They should be funded for the 2018 exploration program at Wilding Lake, including another drill program in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 “Alderon’s Kami Project has the potential to create meaningful value for the steel industry by modernizing and increasing the transparency of the supply chain,'' stated Narinder Nagra, Managing Partner of Sprott. * Transparency of the supply chain? What the hell does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Bloom Lake’s success is the necessary precursor to Kami being built. The strategic investors involved with Bloom Lake understand that excellent things are happening there (though the general market needs to catch up to speed). Two more bulk carriers added to Bloom Lake’s port schedule for early July. Including those ships the total ore shipped out will be 2.2 million tonnes, or nearly 30% of the annual target of 7.4 million tonnes. Very interesting destinations for some of the recently loaded ships. Berge Arctic is headed to Port of Gibraltar (Spain basically) and Centennial Harmony is headed to Port Talbot (Wales, United Kingdom). These are short 10 day trips, versus the 45 day trip to Asia. Less than 1/4 of the Asian shipping costs = much more profit for Champion. The quality Trough ore is in demand in a lot more places than Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 Altius' involvement in the refinancing of the liberty loan is very reassuring. If the whole thing fails, they retain a senior claim. Thinking about it, it is a bit surprising that Hebei did not also get involved. Altius/Sprott clearly see 18 months as a realistic time period in which to make something happen with Kami. And on the last earnings call, Dalton mentioned that a Kami restart would be the most significant event that could positively impact Altius in the near term. Exciting times. N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 Alderon being able to raise the cash and pay off Liberty is a sign that strategic investors like Kami’s chances. US$14 million equates to C$18.67 million, or 42% of Alderon’s market cap. That’s a lot of money for a junior. Besides the US$80 million loan to Champion, Sprott Resource Lending had been appointed in 2010, along with Dundee, as lead arranger for a US$500 million two-year, high-yield debt facility for Tonkolili, an African iron ore project. It actually reached production but closed in 2014 because of low iron ore prices. Not sure if Sprott made money in the deal. Anyway, Sprott has very deep pockets and some ambitions in the iron ore space. I believe it is the first of many strategic investors who will sign on to Alderon/Kami in the next 6 to 12 months. Dilution now is okay if you’re bringing on the right kind of investors: deep pockets for add-on bets during construction financing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 The big change in the mining finance world since 2010 is the decline of traditional brokerages (retail investors don’t have brokers, they buy index funds) and the rise of private equity funds with mandates to invest in mining. SAF Metals & Mining making a potential US$120 million investment into Tacora is an example of the rise of private equity. The private equity groups have the deepest pockets around but they are very sophisticated and will demand very favorable terms. Can the Alderon team close with these types of groups? Is the Kami project good enough to convince a sophisticated investor team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 Tacora Resources C$125 million IPO looks like it’s failed again. Underwriters: BMO, Jefferies, CIBC, National Bank Financial, Canaccord, GMP, and Cormark. Another sign of the weakness of these traditional brokerages and/or retail disbelief in the longterm potential of Trough iron ore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 excelsior gets operating permit https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-receives-federal-epa-operating-permit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 Wow, had no idea Morabito was involved in this deal as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 excelsior gets operating permit https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-receives-federal-epa-operating-permit Very good news. If the Excelsior crew is on the ball they should have debt and equity financing for construction capex lined up and ready to close. Otherwise what have they been doing during the many months of the permitting delay? Permits are effective August 1st. That’s the day construction should begin. Let’s see if they’re check collectors or mine builders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 excelsior gets operating permit https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-receives-federal-epa-operating-permit Great news. Does anyone know how long Altius can wait before deciding whether they purchase the extra 0.5% royalty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 Canex completes it previously announced deal to acquire properties from Altius: https://www.canexmetals.ca/site/assets/files/4981/nr-18-3_canex_completes_property_deal_with_altius_final.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 excelsior gets operating permit https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-receives-federal-epa-operating-permit Great news. Does anyone know how long Altius can wait before deciding whether they purchase the extra 0.5% royalty? The construction milestone requires completion of a feasibility study, all permits, and a firm commitment for 50% of construction financing. Permit isn’t effective until August 1st so Altius’s option is open at least until then. Once Excelsior gets the debt financing commitments Altius would have a decision to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 Canex completes it previously announced deal to acquire properties from Altius: https://www.canexmetals.ca/site/assets/files/4981/nr-18-3_canex_completes_property_deal_with_altius_final.pdf The most advanced property in this group, Ace, was formerly held by Teck, which chip sampled 578 g/t silver over 10 meters. Arcas, the most advanced property in the Aethon package, was also previously held by Teck. The downturn was bad for Teck, they were close to bankruptcy at one point. Altius picked up the properties when Teck rationalized their land holdings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 http://m.miningweekly.com/article/orion-resource-partners-raising-500m-in-royalty-streaming-fund---sources-2018-06-26 Orion Mine Finance is raising US$500 million to specifically invest in potash, tungsten and iron ore royalties or streams. Deals to be announced in the next few months. Theoretically this is Altius territory but Altius is a bit too counter-cyclical to be investing in new potash or iron ore development projects right now. The potash projects currently in development are rather marginal, from what I’ve seen. The same goes for the iron ore projects, including Kami. Alderon should of course be in the market for a big streaming deal (Altius won’t be giving them that deal). A US$100 million streaming deal would go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 http://www.northernpen.ca/business/exploration-proceeds-on-northern-peninsula-silver-claim-221601/ A local news story on Altius and Newfound Gold meeting with local municipal representatives about exploration at Sail Pond. Altius has become extremely pro-active about obtaining social license, even for their exploration projects. See the very early stage agreement with the Cree Nation regarding the Lynx diamond project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 http://www.wsw.com/webcast/vir17/ Chad Wells of Altius gives a pumped-up presentation at the John Tumazos Very Independent Research Conference in New Jersey. I love the energy. Claims the current C$50 million project generation portfolio will be worth C$500 million at some point in the cycle. Looks at the example of the last cycle where Altius spinouts created peak market cap valuations around C$2 billion. Thinks this cycle will be better. Wells says Alderon had $500 million raised of the $1 billion capex in last cycle. Just couldn’t finish financing before the window closed. He thinks they will get it done this cycle. A bit of news: a new nickel spinout is coming soon. Voyageur? Finland Nickel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Chad went on the analyst site visit to Cuale last month. He's says it is for real. Altius believes there's an economic deposit there, just not sure how large it is. Even if it is only a modest 1 million gold ounce deposit it is still likely economic because it is high sulphidation epithermal and well-located. Potential to be much larger. Altius believes Evrim will be the rabbit in the project generation portfolio, first to run up significant gains. * Also high praise for Adventus's recent exploration project deals. Assuming he means the earn-in deals on Santiago and Pijili. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 adventus gets CASH https://ceo.ca/@newswire/adventus-zinc-announces-a-c92-million-private-placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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