mugwump Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 the critical investor likes the excelsior project http://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/06/27/excelsior-mining-receives-long-awaited-uic-permit-quick-capex-funding-around-the-corner.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 adventus gets CASH https://ceo.ca/@newswire/adventus-zinc-announces-a-c92-million-private-placement Another slick move by Adventus to bring in a deep-pocketed strategic investor like Wheaton Precious Metals. Wheaton can marshall up billions of investment cash if it needs to. A strategic investor like this will likely participate in all future financings, and provide equity, royalty or stream financing if one of the projects reaches the construction phase. Lessens Adventus’s dependence on the shaky traditional retail brokerages. They should be cashed up through 2019. By my calculation Wheaton takes 6.7 million of the 10.22 million shares issued. Altius, Greenstone and RCF divide up the remaining 3.52 million shares. This private placement triggers a ~3.8 million share issuance and a US$75k cash payment to Salazar Resources for Santiago and Pijili. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 Wheaton seems to really like the potential of Ecuador. They’re giving C$800k cash to Adventus just for the right to negotiate a stream/royalty deal on Adventus’s existing and future Ecuador properties. Salazar held on to Curipamba, Santiago and Pijili through the downturn when Ecuador was driving off foreign investors. Now their acumen and work is being validated by Wheaton’s investment. Sounds like a farm-out deal for the Irish properties is coming. The PR notes that the cash raised in the placement is reserved for exploration costs on the Ecuador properties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/sokoman-iron-drills-new-visible-gold-bearing-vein Sokoman finds a 1.35 meter section of visible gold in core from their first drill hole at Moosehead. They believe this is a new high-grade vein target. The visible gold is remarkable enough for them to adjust their drill program. They will complete assays and a downhole televiewer survey before drilling another hole at this target. If the 1.35 meter section assays, let’s say, 300 g/t gold that should be interesting. In the meantime 10 to 15 holes will be drilled in the shallower Western Trend target. * http://www.sokomaniron.com Front page of Sokoman website has a link to a Dropbox presentation with pictures of the visible gold drill core and drill collar locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 Summary of Adventus financings: Seed financing: 32 million shares at 25 cents. IPO: 6 million shares at 50 cents 12/17: 11.36 million shares at 88 cents 7/18: 10.2 million shares at 90 cents Price has increased with every financing. ~70% of the shares will be in the hands of strategic investors and insiders. Not a significant amount warrants issued. This is a master class for junior resource CEO’s. The next time Adventus comes to the market for financing they should have an updated PEA for Curipamba (delivered H1 2019) based upon a lot of drilling and hopefully a couple of early stage discoveries (Sesmo at least). I want the next financing at $1.50 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 Sometime during this bull cycle I expect Adventus's market cap to surpass Altius's market cap. Curipamba looks like an open pit version of 777. It's going to be incredibly valuable if it is permitted and supported by a bankable feasibility study with a huge NPV. US$400 million in a strong copper/gold price environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 wheaton closes voisey bay cobalt streaming deal https://ceo.ca/@newswire/wheaton-precious-metals-announces-closing-of-the-cobalt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 cobalt 27 closes voisey bay cobalt streaming deal https://ceo.ca/@newswire/cobalt-27-closes-acquisition-of-us300-million-cobalt-a648d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikek Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 If you believe Adventus is going to be a higher market cap than Altius why even hold Altius? Also, I can respect Chad's enthusiasm on that speech but again the company is saying their shares should be valued higher. No offense but if you truly believe this they should be buying back shares. All I know is that the share performance has been pretty atrocious for quite awhile, you can shout through the rooftops all you want but if your actions don't match it's completely irrelevant. You have to either show the market you truly believe that or you might as well stop saying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 Adventus is going to dilute like crazy of course as its market cap grows. Sometimes your market cap can grow without per share appreciation. See Sandstorm Gold reaching a $1 billion market cap but adding a couple hundred million shares. Altius should do better on a per share basis through the cycle, especially considering volatility. I expect some boom and bust with Adventus. On the boom Adventus’s market cap could catch up with Altius’s. Just speculating here. I think of Aurora reaching a $1.2 billion market cap, surpassing Altius, then wasting away to nothing. Alderon’s market cap surpassed Altius’s market cap, too, at some point? It got close, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Altius is pretty disciplined about buyback prices. They would be buying back heavy at $11 I think. There’s also debt to pay off and acquisitions to make. Altius is undervalued compared to its royalty peers and its PG portfolio has incredible potential in a bull market. Chad is right about both points. I don’t think they need to buy back shares to prove those points. I’m as bullish as anyone on the stock (I think it reaches C$100) but I try to buy on the ugliest dips. Safety first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Champion annual report, just filed in Australia has production cash costs for Bloom Lake of C$28.2 million per month. with current year sustaining capex of C$21.7 million. That totals annual cash costs of = C$360 million. What’s Champion bringing in? The latest market price for 66% Fe concentrate has risen to US$96 per tonne. Subtract US$20 per tonne in shipping costs to Asia = US$76 per tonne FOB Pointe Noire. 7.4 million tonnes x US$76 per tonne x 1.32 exchange rate = C$742 million revenue. C$742 million revenue - C$360 million cash costs = C$382 million annual profit margin * That C$382 million profit margin has to service C$110 million in current liabilities, C$141 million in longterm debt, C$14 million Glencore debenture, C$16 million in property taxes, and a few more items. This is a very rough, non-accountant’s analysis ignoring premiums for low deleterious elements, discounts for the offtaker, Asian vs European shipping rates, taxes etc. But I think it’s clear that the quantum of liabilities is small compared to the potential annual profit margin. If the quality premiums for iron ore hold Bloom Lake becomes a cash machine for its investors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 $14 million loan document for Alderon filed on SEDAR. The effective interest rate is 10.57%. Alderon pays all legal and other fees related to the transaction. Senior secured debt facility. I like the bonus shares (conveyed immediately, with a 10% discount to market price) as a sweetener. Amounts to another ~10% in interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Attendance at the Tumazos Very Independent Research event that Chad (and every other large royalty company) presented at looks anemic, from the pictures I’ve seen. Empty tables. Retail investor interest in mining is in a trough, I believe. Good time to buy. Selectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Useful rule of thumb for mining projects: Post-tax NPV should exceed initial capex. 1) Alderon fails: Post-tax NPV of $941 million vs capex of $999 million. 2) Excelsior passes: Post-tax NPV of $807 million vs capex of $47 million (much higher with capex for stage 2 and 3 added). 3) Allegiance Stage 1 fails: Post-tax NPV of $29 million vs capex of $35 million. Excelsior’s the only one that actually gets built this cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 altius increases credit facility to $225 million https://ceo.ca/@businesswire/altius-extends-and-increases-credit-facility-to-225 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 altius increases credit facility to $225 million https://ceo.ca/@businesswire/altius-extends-and-increases-credit-facility-to-225 Current situation: C$125 million in debt at ~5% interest C$174 in cash and public equity (C$57 million cash, C$50 million junior equities, C$67 million LIF). C$100 million available revolver. CIA debenture worth C$13.1 million in equity. * Total potential arsenal: C$287 million (A few million more of in-the-money warrants, and farm out equity deals that hadn’t closed by the end of March including Aethon and Canstar). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 http://avrupaminerals.com/news/index.php?content_id=287 Avrupa announces the completion of drilling at Alvito. An initial 15 hole, 2127 meter drill program was supplemented by an additional 300 meters of drilling in the Entre Matinhas area. They found the right kind of rock at Entre Matinhas for an IOCG deposit: magnetite breccias and copper sulphides. Therefore they drilled 3 more holes, even before assays are received. IOCG deposits tend to be huge. The potential for this project is exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 http://www.allegiancecoal.com.au/irm/PDF/1405_0/TenasMetCoalProjectDescriptionandProductionTarget Allegiance Coal will file for environmental permitting in August 2018, hoping to obtain all permits by Q3 2020. Production to begin in 2021. Small mine plan scrapped after consultation with stakeholders. Local residents wanted full EA permitting while shareholders wanted a bigger mine immediately. Mine will produce 750,000 tonnes per annum. US$61.8 million initial capex. US$56 per tonne opex (lowest 5 percentile costs). 22 year mine life. US$100 million projected revenue per annum. [Edit] Altius has a 1.5% to 3% sliding scale royalty based upon coal benchmark prices. At the high end of the royalty Altius would make US$3 million, or C$3.95 million, in annual royalty revenue from Telkwa. [Edit] A projected C$87 million total revenue over the 22 year mine life. [Edit] Altius’s royalty was reduced to 1.5% to 3% sliding scale during renegotiations with Allegiance. Altius does own a right of first refusal to purchase a legacy owner’s royalty on Telkwa of 3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 The CDP land bank cost Altius C$42 million in May 2014. They’ve received: 1) A little over C$4 million from land sales to farmers. A significant amount of acreage left to sell. 2) ~C$2 million in potash/electrical coal/coal bed methane annual royalties. This should be longterm revenue. 3) A farmout deal to Westmoreland Coal (near Sheerness) that likely turns into nothing. 4) The Allegiance Coal deal, with equity and a royalty. Would be excellent if Allegiance reached production. Altius could receive in Telkwa royalties 2x what they paid for CDP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 altius increases credit facility to $225 million https://ceo.ca/@businesswire/altius-extends-and-increases-credit-facility-to-225 Same syndicate of lenders who lent Altius C$150 million in 2016. Very good interest rates, especially considering LIBOR is nearly 4x as high as it was in May 2016. This facility took a while to negotiate but the terms and length look good. The revolver is C$125 million, C$25 million of which is being used. As the C$25 million is paid off it becomes available again as the full revolver facility. So that portion of the debt will be prioritized for repayment. I expect the minimum C$5 million per quarter payments on the term facility until the revolver is paid down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikek Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 It was so fantastic that the stock was almost down 5 percent, absolutely great indeed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 It was so fantastic that the stock was almost down 5 percent, absolutely great indeed.... Let’s uncouple real corporate developments from stock volatility. The credit facility is in place for the next 5 years. It is objectively good. The 5% correction will be in place until Thursday or Friday. Totally different timeframes. I very much doubt the market cares about the terms of this credit facility. Blame the volatility on general disinterest in resource juniors. Investors want to sell Altius and buy cannabis stocks or index funds. It’s fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikek Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 I agree that getting the loan done was good but the facts remain that this stock has been a dog for many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 Yeah was great as my buy order to get more was hit ;) Otherwise Altius seems to be business as usual: mostly positive news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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