linealdin Posted July 11, 2018 Share Posted July 11, 2018 http://www.shmining.com.au/images/May_Llanos_2015.pdf See slide 4. Llanos is theorized to be a larger and higher grade porphyry than Llahuin (150 million tonnes at 0.41% copper equivalent). From the geological section Llanos looks like it could be 4x the size of Llahuin. 600 million tonnes at, let’s say, 0.60% copper equivalent? Juicy target. Hence Aethon’s impatience to drill and try to prove the theory. Chapada is basically a very large, low grade copper-gold porphyry. Aethon hopes Llanos is another Chapada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PXX/01998825.pdf PolarX hits 55 meters of visible copper oxides, from surface, along strike from Zackly. This is a real discovery, not infill drilling. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PXX/01998825.pdf PolarX hits 55 meters of visible copper oxides, from surface, along strike from Zackly. This is a real discovery, not infill drilling. Awesome! The 55 meter wide copper mineralization is on Altius royalty land (2% royalty on gold, 1% royalty on base metals). The intense green in the pictures indicates copper. The malachite at the end of the hole can be up to 60% copper. The garnet skarn will be much lower copper. But I expect the hole to assay beautifully. The SE Zackly buried porphyry target doesn’t seem to be on Altius royalty land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 http://m.miningweekly.com/article/costs-outweigh-price-of-atlas-irons-ore-2018-07-12 Atlas Iron in Western Australia is producing low grade iron ore at full cash costs of A$62, or US$45.88 per tonne. But it is only managing a sales price of A$59, or US$43.65 per tonne, including hedging gains. At an annual production rate of 9 million tonnes Atlas should lose A$27 million this year. (Atlas’s cash balance declined by A$8 million last quarter.) Obviously unsustainable but the execs will hold on for as long as possible (salaries matter). Over the medium term it seems inevitable to me that new high grade ore production from the Trough will replace low grade ore production from the minor players in Western Australia. Certain companies will go bankrupt while others will make billions in revenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 If you remember a while back newly imposed US tariffs on Canadian steel were supposed to somehow crush the global steel market and thus deplete global demand for iron ore from Canada. It hasn’t happened. Demand for high grade iron ore concentrate and pellets from Canada is booming. Record setting premiums. I was right to be skeptical of the thesis. I’m deeply skeptical today that Trump’s antics will somehow change the fundamentals of the copper market: declining productivity from mines and electrification of the world requiring immense amounts of copper. This turbulence will be old news in a couple of months. The US is a geopolitical superpower but its economic influence is a bit overrated. Nothing Trump does will keep China from building out cities for its urbanizing population. Nothing Trump does changes the desires of people in the lowest economic quartile for electricity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 https://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2018/07/wheaton-stuff-things-wpm-and-price-of.html?m=1 Cobalt price has declined 15.2% since announcement of the Wheaton/Cobalt 27 stream financing deal for Voisey’s Bay in June. Wheaton had been claiming an 8% IRR at the spot price at the time of announcement. What is the IRR at today’s spot? Dangers of stream/royalty financing at the top of the market. Vale has done well by selling the cobalt at the top and getting their underground mine financed. Altius should benefit once the litigation is resolved. Altius must remain contrarian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 https://www.alderonironore.com/news/2018/488-alderon-closes-us-14-million-loan-facility-with-sprott-resource-lending Alderon closes the US$14 million loan from Sprott/Altius and pays off the Liberty debenture. Altius receives an additional 687,290 Alderon shares, bringing its total to 52,526,206 shares, or 38% of equity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 http://aethonminerals.com/storage/presentations/aethon-minerals-july-2018-1531323750.pdf I don't care who spends the money as long as the money is spent on Altius royalty land. I agree with this wholeheartedly. I am very hopeful that a mine gets built on an "organic" ALS land position this cycle. If they got another Chapada without the upfront payment, not only would the cash flow go up, but I think them proving out the business model would increase the multiple. Growth in income and multiple has the potential to be significant when combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 Stage 1 of Excelsior will certainly be built. Should be online in early 2019. In the next 5 years odds are Stage 3 of Excelsior and Telkwa will also happen. Low capex, long life assets. Altius gets about C$9 million in combined annual royalty revenue from the two mines. Kami’s going to happen, as well. Too many good things favoring the Trough. Staged production is a path Alderon probably doesn’t want to take (damages overall economics) but it may come to that. It has to happen now. In 5 to 7 years a slew of other high grade iron ore mines (in Ukraine, Sweden, Brazil or Quebec) will be permitted and built to replace the non-competitive Western Australia production. Premiums will dwindle and the opportunity will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 Stage 1 of Excelsior will certainly be built. Should be online in early 2019. In the next 5 years odds are Stage 3 of Excelsior and Telkwa will also happen. Low capex, long life assets. Altius gets about C$9 million in combined annual royalty revenue from the two mines. Kami’s going to happen, as well. Too many good things favoring the Trough. Staged production is a path Alderon probably doesn’t want to take (damages overall economics) but it may come to that. It has to happen now. In 5 to 7 years a slew of other high grade iron ore mines (in Ukraine, Sweden, Brazil or Quebec) will be permitted and built to replace the non-competitive Western Australia production. Premiums will dwindle and the opportunity will be gone. If I had your confidence in Kami getting built this cycle, I would probably have your position size in ALS! Kami even at a half-size is a big deal. If they miss the window here and a couple of big long-life high Fe% mines get build elsewhere it could be a long time before the next window, especially if China's growth starts to get less steel intensive over time, which I think is likely. I really wish I could trust Morabito&co to raise the money/build Kami... Thanks for all your great updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PXX/01999230.pdf Revised PolarX press release about the 55 meters of visible copper, now with detailed description of the drill core and estimated percentages of copper in each section. 55 meters of 3% copper would be a nice start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 appeal filed re: excelsior permit https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-provides-permitting-update-a301f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 appeal filed re: excelsior permit https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-provides-permitting-update-a301f Appeal is from a local yokel, not from an environmental group with legal counsel. Not a very sophisticated appeal letter. This will be dismissed. This may not be the last of it. I assume a serious environmental group is preparing a 50-page appeal letter and waiting to file at the last possible moment. Delay tactics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 appeal filed re: excelsior permit https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-provides-permitting-update-a301f Appeal is from a local yokel, not from an environmental group with legal counsel. Not a very sophisticated appeal letter. This will be dismissed. This may not be the last of it. I assume a serious environmental group is preparing a 50-page appeal letter and waiting to file at the last possible moment. Delay tactics. Is there a specified period of time in which groups can lodge appeals against the permit? If so, when does it end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 Looking back at recent Adventus developments I think the June 6th batch of Curipamba infill drill results were decisive in the following ways: 1) The assays convinced Adventus management that Curipamba will be developed and marketed as a copper project. The press release provided copper equivalent grades for the drill holes, which previous press releases hadn’t listed. The upcoming PEA will likely focus on a mine plan that emphasizes copper recovery. I also think a name change to Adventus Minerals or Adventus Copper will happen at some point. 2) The excellence of the assay results (the best of the 2018 drilling) convinced Wheaton PM to pull the trigger and invest C$10 million (on favorable terms for Adventus) three weeks later. Wheaton is paying far more per share for their 10% stake than the other strategic investors. Wheaton is betting that Curipamba will beat the odds and actually become an operating mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 appeal filed re: excelsior permit https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/excelsior-mining-provides-permitting-update-a301f Appeal is from a local yokel, not from an environmental group with legal counsel. Not a very sophisticated appeal letter. This will be dismissed. This may not be the last of it. I assume a serious environmental group is preparing a 50-page appeal letter and waiting to file at the last possible moment. Delay tactics. Is there a specified period of time in which groups can lodge appeals against the permit? If so, when does it end? I believe appeals have to be filed by August 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PXX/01999230.pdf Revised PolarX press release about the 55 meters of visible copper, now with detailed description of the drill core and estimated percentages of copper in each section. 55 meters of 3% copper would be a nice start. PolarX chairman says assays are being rushed for this drill hole. Results in 2 weeks. If they get 55 meters of 5% copper equivalent it would be the 3rd best copper drill hole on the planet in 2018 (using Adventus’s compilation). And it’s from 2.5 meters below the surface making it especially valuable. If it’s 55 meters of 1.5% copper equivalent, in line with the existing Zackly resource, it won’t move the dial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 I believe appeals have to be filed by August 1st. Thanks Linealdin. I guess that means we will not hear anything on financing until after that then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 I believe appeals have to be filed by August 1st. Thanks Linealdin. I guess that means we will not hear anything on financing until after that then. Excelsior price action sharply downwards indicates to me part of the construction financing package will be an equity raise priced around C$1. Maybe 60/40 debt to equity for the final US$50 million (plus $10 million contingency). Market would, of course, prefer 100% debt financing, but the lenders seem to always require an equity component. It’s a lot of moving parts and a lot of money to raise. Will take a few months to sort out. I hope Altius cashed out more Excelsior shares when the stock was well above $1.40 in May and June. Down to $1.02 currently and it could get uglier once the equity financing is announced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 https://www.miningnewsnorth.com/story/2018/07/01/news/early-zackly-results-show-growth-potential/5268.html July 8th visit by Mining News North to PolarX’s exploration camp. Immediate goal of doubling the Zackly skarn resource by drilling between the main skarn and the 55 meter discovery hole 850 meters to the east. Connect the dots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/energy-and-environment/2018/7/13/17551878/natural-gas-markets-renewable-energy Wind and solar are beating coal and nuclear on levelized costs. They will soon be cheaper than even new builds of combined cycle natural gas plants. Natural gas as a “bridge” to renewables may not be needed. The practical difficulty of renewable energy is high upfront costs (fuel’s free over the life of the plant). Natural gas plants have lower upfront costs but significant fuel costs over the life of the plant. So it’s basically a financing issue for renewables. Altius and Great Bay are offering royalties as another financing option to deal with the high upfront costs of these renewable power plants. The technical issues have been solved. No government subsidies are required because wind and solar are becoming the cheapest energy. Now it’s just a matter of capital allocation towards building the best projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-15/iron-ore-s-top-grade-may-hit-100-as-china-gets-serious-on-smog?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google Same story about exploding high grade iron ore premiums (US$100 for 65% Fe is possible), with a caution that more high grade supply is coming from Vale’s S11D and Canada. Nice to see the thesis in Bloomberg, which has wide business readership. When Bloom Lake Phase 1 is confirmed to be making money hand over fist then risk capital moves towards Bloom Lake Phase 2, IOC’s expansion to 30 MTA, and Kami. Greed trumps fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 altius 2nd qtr royalty revenue https://ceo.ca/@businesswire/altius-reports-second-quarter-attributable-royalty-of-165m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Total electrical and met coal royalties since purchase of Prairie Royalties, from April 2014 through June 2018: C$69.35 million. If we assign a notional purchase price of C$120.45 million to the coal royalties (Altius valued the coal and potash 50/50 when making the C$240.9 million purchase) then Altius has achieved 57.6% payback on the coal portion of the deal in 4.2 years. I’d be happy with a weighted average of another 7 years of royalties from the coal. Payback and a nice chunk of profit. Canada still hasn’t had its first coal-to-gas power plant conversion, despite a lot of talk. The first Canadian CTG conversion will likely be one of Transalta’s Keephills or Sundance plants in early 2021. Transalta just had some open houses to solicit public input on the conversions and will file for environmental permits this summer. It’s a process, involving a public comment period. Potential Genesee and Sheerness conversions still in the early study stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linealdin Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 http://www.thereminder.ca/news/local-news/777-end-date-now-2021-1.23342710 777 mine life extended to Q4 2021 according to Hudbay spokesman: “A reassessment of the mine plan and achievable mining rates led to a plan where the reserves are fully mined out in 2021,” said Weinerman. “At this time, we anticipate the 777 mine’s reserves to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2021 and we are continuing efforts to extend the mine.” According to Weinerman, the 777 mine engineering and geology team is conducting an assessment to determine whether there are additional ores that could be mined profitably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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