Guest Dazel Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Brk7, I can only be so lucky as to make a fortune off of a chanos mistake twice...remember he said fairfax was a zero...we backed up the truck at an average cost of $80! The china meltdown is priced into stocks that is why Altius receives 0 for it's royalty "streams"...and that is why there are many opportunities for the cash at Altius is sitting on...remember just a 10% return on the cash and marketable securities would be huge to Altius...if Dalton were to pull something off it would be a game changer as well...market has no concept or thought of this very real scenario. They are described as an investment or merchant bank...we like that they are waiting for a home run with their capital... But the china scenario you are speaking of....or the fear there of has created a higher possibility of them finding a real bargain. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Brk7, 10% annual return on the cash and marketable securities....is about a buck a share...we expect a lumpy ride as with companies like Leucadia. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 We value the pipeline outside of Alderon and Paladin (aurora) at it's cost which is close to zero....obviously there is huge potential there but the shorter term drivers of Alderon and the deployment of investment capital are the elephant in the room. Paladin (aurora) cost base was $600k but they realized $200m gain from it...so not sure and it does not matter much but I think that becomes the cost base for the royalty. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 2, 2012 Share Posted May 2, 2012 Brk7, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-01/analysts-who-called-2010-bottom-in-china-stocks-now-say-buy-1-.html For fun....we have no idea how to predict the fall of a country or he rise of a country form that matter...china is not looking at 2012....they are looking at the next couple of decades. there is more to the iron ore story than china... If you have looked at the iron ore story or mining in general you will see that capital raising has dried up...therefore the mines that are anticipated will not come on stream...when anticipated...Higher cost capital projects are being delayed. Alderon is not low cost at $45/ a ton but to build for a billion bucks is low....as was Thompson consolidated...the reason is where it is located...infrastructure is very close...rail, roads, port being built and low cost power. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 http://www.alderonironore.com/alderonironore.com/_resources/news/2012-05-03-NewsRelease.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/rick-rules-primer-contrarian-speculation Possible opportunities for ALS to make good deal in depressed/distressed junior resource sector? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/rick-rules-primer-contrarian-speculation Possible opportunities for ALS to make good deal in depressed/distressed junior resource sector? Thanks, Rick Rule is always interesting to listen to. Hopefully ALS can deploy significant capital in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric50 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Brent Cook very bullish on Alderon (early in video) http://watch.bnn.ca/wednesday#clip671139 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/2012/05/01/chinas-landing-pattern/#more-1424 Only Jim Rogers seems to be taking this point of view...Möbius a Sir John Templeton understudy is famous in the developing country investment world. This is a good piece on China...he is betting on consumers and commodities...with industrial infrasture build out as the reason...iron ore should do fine in this environment. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Buyback can start now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Looking to add. Interesting article on "contraction" starting to be seen in China. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9263196/World-edges-closer-to-deflationary-slump-as-money-contracts-in-China.html Can t be good for iron + other commodity producers-in the short term- but I am betting that we will get inflation after a brief episode of some deflation- but who knows? ALS seems to be in good shape either way-will do well with alderon iron deposit with inflation. Large cash on balance sheet could be put to work in deflationary time. Will average in a bit with further price weakness in near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roughlyright Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Hello guys, I am already long on Altius for a while and added more today. Alderon now dropped to $2.47. Do you think Alderon provides a better margin of safety, because now we have a Chinese partner in place and the resource estimates look great? What do you think is a conservative value of Alderon? Roughlyright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 We like what is happening....tough on some to see the market price their ownership of shares at a lower rate... We do not feel that way....oil falling helps the world...it brings down costs everywhere...we love to see iron ore fall to 100.... Because it will take high cost producers out of the market...remember we will not be producing for a couple of years...and a fall in commodities will be extremely helpful for input costs in building the mine at Alderon and Aurora. Alderon like Thompson Consolidated will go ahead regardless of what happens...remember Thompson went ahead in 2009!!!!! We have a $40 a ton cost...but the build out costs can be brought down significantly by a pull back in their input costs. The inflationary pressure in china and India....Europe is enormous...this will be a helpful pullback....we do not want china going full speed ahead now...we want to see it in 2 years when we are looking production. Alderon's partner is not looking at this year or next they are looking at the next decade...they have to...the money for the buildout is there. The Biggest opportunity we see is that Altius buys significant amounts of shares back but more importantly we get a chance to allocate capital and get a return.... An 80% return on $100m allocated similar to the IRC transaction....Royal Gold's biggest royalty is still Voisey Bay! These guys are similar to Leucadia they will not buy unless the get a 25 to 50 cent dollar and they have been extremely patient. We would like to see a return on our liquid capital....aaa and then the royalties...which will nirvana. We think that Jeremy Grantham's thoughts have come true and this will be the opportunity of a life time to buy "things" because of the pull back...Leucadia agrees...and we have the best in the business "Altius" sitting on a mountain of cash waiting for it....Batter up here come the strikes down the middle of the plate. Disclaimer...we have only added shares since we took a position several years ago...we are here for the long haul. Dazel. It may not seem like it but Altius is perfectly positioned for this...as their management stated llast August "bring on he blood bath"....they did not get the opportunity there but we are seeing commodity stocks get crushed right now....they have gotten what they hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/altius-announces-establishment-automatic-repurchase-120000481.html This is great news....it allows them to do material events...ie negotiation on deals etc...and a third party broker will be able to buy shares....without knowledge of what is going on with deals. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 We like what is happening....tough on some to see the market price their ownership of shares at a lower rate... We do not feel that way....oil falling helps the world...it brings down costs everywhere...we love to see iron ore fall to 100.... Because it will take high cost producers out of the market...remember we will not be producing for a couple of years...and a fall in commodities will be extremely helpful for input costs in building the mine at Alderon and Aurora. Alderon like Thompson Consolidated will go ahead regardless of what happens...remember Thompson went ahead in 2009!!!!! We have a $40 a ton cost...but the build out costs can be brought down significantly by a pull back in their input costs. The inflationary pressure in china and India....Europe is enormous...this will be a helpful pullback....we do not want china going full speed ahead now...we want to see it in 2 years when we are looking production. Alderon's partner is not looking at this year or next they are looking at the next decade...they have to...the money for the buildout is there I like the way you think. Turmoil right now can indeed lower Alderon and Aurora's costs, remove competitors, and allow them to deploy capital. Good news on the automatic repurchase plan. The end result should be that they will be able to buy back more than they otherwise could, so can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 hmm.. they stop buying since Jan and now setting this up. I wonder if they have material info going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value-is-what-you-get Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 hmm.. they stop buying since Jan and now setting this up. I wonder if they have material info going on. Is there any other plausible explanation for setting something like this up? Sounds like something cooking to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 It sure looks like they are working on deals, Otherwise, why give out the control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Does Altius have a new website? I don't remember it being such a nice design: http://www.altiusminerals.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Does Altius have a new website? I don't remember it being such a nice design: http://www.altiusminerals.com/ Must be pretty new, first time I see that design. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Why couldn't the auto-buyback be because the stock has gotten quite a bit cheaper recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Why couldn't the auto-buyback be because the stock has gotten quite a bit cheaper recently? There was a buyback going on, they switch it to auto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 135$ Spot iron ore is still 15$ above the 120$ calculation for Alderon estimates. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-22/china-leading-index-rose-0-8-in-april-same-as-march.html More of the same.....but china is now looking at bumping up growth...they had the brakes on for quite awhile.....we are happy to stay right here... Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alderon-signs-definitive-subscription-agreement-123000754.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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