ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[Cigarbutt]

I second petec here because the discussion is helpful even if the personal back and forth is not essential.

 

See the following graph (the graph provides only relative insight and in no way represents a forecasting tool):

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/timing-the-stock-market-is-tough-but-it-sure-doesnt-look-like-it-in-this-chart-2018-08-23

 

In a way,

-linealdin seems to say that there are fundamental reasons that justify the present relative valuation picture.

-Liberty seems to say that there are fundamental reasons that justify the present relative valuation picture.

 

I find the thought process to be similar for oil and gas investments these days.

 

To each his or her own.

[linealdin]

Accelerated coal phaseout in Alberta did not come out of the blue.

 

2012: Federal government announces sweeping regulations limiting the lives of coal plants.

 

2013: Ontario finishes completely eliminating coal power.

 

2014: Altius buys the Prairie Royalty package.

 

Everyone who studied the issue knew coal was not favored politically. I accept Dalton’s claim that Altius had been studying the Sherritt potash royalties since 2008, and that those royalties were on the top of their acquisition list.

 

I’m skeptical of the claim that Altius was valuing the Prairie portfolio based upon the 2055 end date for Genesee in effect at the time. They knew the risks. Everyone did.

 

[Liberty]

“Altius has been around long enough for us to get an idea of the full-cycle returns on some of their deals. They've had some really good ones, and some not so good ones, and combine all those together and you can't say that the actual returns have been too terrific so far.”

 

Nonsense. We haven’t seen a full cycle for most of their royalties. Altius bought all if its royalties (aside from Voisey’s Bay) close to the recent commodity bottom around 2016. Around $2.15 copper, $215 potash, $40 iron ore. (They caught Voisey near the previous cycle bottom in 2003.)

 

We’re off the 2016 bottom, but I don’t think we’re at mid-cycle prices yet.

 

At the top of the cycle we will see $5 copper, $800 potash, $2 zinc, etc. Altius is going to be making unbelievable amounts of money. Idiots will be mortgaging their homes to buy commodity stocks.

 

You can't help yourself, can you? I say something, then you say "nonsense, here's a different thing that you're wrong about".

 

I said the company has been around long enough. They were founded in 1997 or something like that (from memory). Then you attack a strawman about a recent royalty.

 

Ever looked at a long-term chart of potash? I found one from 1900 onward. Except for a spike during WWI, it's been basically going down for a hundred years except for the little spike in recent years (the commodity "supercycle" because of China that everybody was talking about). Historically, commodities have mostly fallen in real terms over time.

[Liberty]

“What were they saying about the coal stuff at the time? I seem to remember them praising it as a safe thing that wasn't impacted by the coal commodity price and that was long-lived and safe and such.”

 

Do you really expect a public company to buy an asset and then tell you how awful it is? Of course Altius was promoting both the coal and potash in the media. That’s just what you do.

 

Anti-coal politics were active well before 2014. It was part of the landscape.

 

From the C$240.9 million + C$65 million combined purchase I expect Altius to receive about C$2.5 billion in this century. And more in the next.

 

You can apply whatever discount rate you want to those cash flows. How about 25%? 50%? I understand the tactic. If you apply a high enough rate the cash flows become worthless. Play that game all you like. No one cares.

 

It's not a tactic, and that you can't see it is the sad part. You're the one using tactics like arguing against things I haven't said or to push my arguments to extremes and then argue against those extremes (hurdles in the 15-20% range aren't that high for a risky industry and a small cap, because if you're looking for 10%, why not just buy Berkshire or the SP500? If ALS ever becomes a huge multi-billion company with lots of capital to deploy, lower hurdles make sense, but if you're deploying a few hundred millions in a multi-trillion industry, you shouldn't aim low.). You seem to be content to never do the math and figure out what kind of returns you're getting, and to count your chickens before they're hatched, predicting higher commodity prices all the time or looking out some cumulative amount over a century just because the numbers look big (everything looks big over long periods, the same 240m invested in the SP500 would also be huge, and it's meaningless to predict that far out, especially without knowing commodity prices and inflation and geopolitics and the situation at royalty partners and a million other unknowable variables (management might do stupid things or not even be around anymore)).

 

I bet if we go back in this thread and see what you were saying about the coal royalties a little while ago, we'd find a different tune, but it doesn't matter, because whatever happens you just rationalize it.

 

It's kind of pointless, because by questioning your beloved company, you feel personally attacked and basically don't even consider anything I'm saying. At this point I'm mostly saying it for others who might be reading this and looking at both the pros and cons, like a good investor should do.

[linealdin]

“Altius has been around long enough for us to get an idea of the full-cycle returns on some of their deals. They've had some really good ones, and some not so good ones, and combine all those together and you can't say that the actual returns have been too terrific so far.”

 

Nonsense. We haven’t seen a full cycle for most of their royalties. Altius bought all if its royalties (aside from Voisey’s Bay) close to the recent commodity bottom around 2016. Around $2.15 copper, $215 potash, $40 iron ore. (They caught Voisey near the previous cycle bottom in 2003.)

 

We’re off the 2016 bottom, but I don’t think we’re at mid-cycle prices yet.

 

At the top of the cycle we will see $5 copper, $800 potash, $2 zinc, etc. Altius is going to be making unbelievable amounts of money. Idiots will be mortgaging their homes to buy commodity stocks.

 

You can't help yourself, can you? I say something, then you say "nonsense, here's a different thing that you're wrong about".

 

I said the company has been around long enough. They were founded in 1997 or something like that (from memory). Then you attack a strawman about a recent royalty.

 

Ever looked at a long-term chart of potash? I found one from 1900 onward. Except for a spike during WWI, it's been basically going down for a hundred years except for the little spike in recent years (the commodity "supercycle" because of China that everybody was talking about). Historically, commodities have mostly fallen in real terms over time.

 

We’ve been discussing the royalty deals, cash flows etc. Altius wasn’t making royalty deals in 1997. Obviously! It was a very small scale prospect generator. We’ve seen full cycle returns for those types of prospect generation deals.

 

Altius got heavy into the royalty business by making half a billion in deals near the 2016 commodity cycle bottom. We have’t seen full cycle returns for those deals.

 

Don’t try to sidetrack with bullshit about World War 1 potash.

[linealdin]

I’ve done the math on all the deals. We just disagree on what discount rates to use.

 

I subscribe to the Buffett method of discounting the future cash flows at the risk free rate but building a margin of safety by buying the cash flowing asset cheaply. The hard part is figuring out which asset to invest in. Will this royalty generate enough cash or won’t it. Yes or no.

[linealdin]

Altius also believes that the exact discount rate applied to a potential royalty purchase isn’t crucial. The more important consideration for them is where the commodity price is when you buy the asset.

 

At $2 copper the copper royalty deal’s going to turn out fine over the full cycle.

 

At $4.50 copper the copper royalty deal’s not going to work out over the full cycle.

 

That’s been their experience. Those who don’t believe in commodity price cycles often end up buying commodity stocks or projects at the top of the cycle. Remember that Liberty owned Altius near the top of the last commodity cycle.

[linealdin]

Coal politics has really only affected Genesee (Sheerness was due for natural death in 2023 with mining moving from Altius royalty land).

 

I expect the Genesee complex to now have an average conversion date of 2025 (setting the co-firing possibility aside). Pre NDP the average shutdown date for the complex was around 2047.

 

So Altius is losing C$6 million a year over 22 years. (Liberty would of course discount the lost future cash flows by 15% to 20%, thus minimizing the present lost value. I don’t play that game.)

 

*

 

The big news items for me this month:

 

1) Excelsior receiving all permits and US$75 million in construction financing.

 

2) Allegiance entering permitting and signing a JV deal with a major Japanese trading house (likely securing at least half of its modest construction financing needs).

 

Both projects, once built, could bring Altius up to C$6 million annually over their projected 22 year mine lives. Those numbers are familiar.

 

I like the symmetry. Two new Genesees replacing the old one.

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

Like it or not, we get paid for taking on risk.

 

At the project level the purchase of a royalty stream is inherently risky, as you have no idea as to IF (there is no royalty if the mine is never built, or the property nationalized) and WHEN (5 or 20 years?) that future royalty payment MIGHT arrive. The more variation in both magnitude and timing, the more risk, and the higher the discount rate. 15-20% is not unreasonable.

 

The discount is ONLY 15-20%, because ALS has been able to successfully diversify accross both cycle and commodity.

Diversification that gets more reliable, the longer they continue with what they are doing.

 

An ALS investor is looking to a rising cashflow paying for a growing dividend, and gains from the SALE of some of these royalties at/near the top of their commodity cycles. Proceeds funding the next round of royalty purchases in commodities further down in their commodity cycles; and almost ALL the cash going to dividends. ALS is still many years away from this, and a $ going to ALS competes against a $ going to RTZ, Anglo, etc.

 

At 15%, the PV of $1.00 5 years out, is only $0.49; at 20% it's down to $0.40. The very long life potash deposit is indeed a great asset to have; but it's VALUE today is essentially squat - because the bulk of its cashflow occurrs so far out in the future. Of course you may disagree, but  expect a very frustrating experience.

 

ALS seems to know what they are doing, but we would suggest to you that at this stage of their life - an investor is better off holding the equivalent in a mix of the global majors. Simply because the cashflow from a producing mine, is not discounted anywhere near as heavily as one from the distant 'future'.

 

SD

   

[linealdin]

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/coal-miner-strikes-allegiance-with-japans-itochu-20181103-h17h6a

 

Allegiance Coal signs a JV deal with Itochu, Japanese trading house. Itochu takes a 20% stake in Allegiance for A$7 million, now has right to purchase up to 50% of the project. Details of project level funding unclear. More to come.

[linealdin]

Like it or not, we get paid for taking on risk.

 

At the project level the purchase of a royalty stream is inherently risky, as you have no idea as to IF (there is no royalty if the mine is never built, or the property nationalized) and WHEN (5 or 20 years?) that future royalty payment MIGHT arrive. The more variation in both magnitude and timing, the more risk, and the higher the discount rate. 15-20% is not unreasonable.

 

The discount is ONLY 15-20%, because ALS has been able to successfully diversify accross both cycle and commodity.

Diversification that gets more reliable, the longer they continue with what they are doing.

 

An ALS investor is looking to a rising cashflow paying for a growing dividend, and gains from the SALE of some of these royalties at/near the top of their commodity cycles. Proceeds funding the next round of royalty purchases in commodities further down in their commodity cycles; and almost ALL the cash going to dividends. ALS is still many years away from this, and a $ going to ALS competes against a $ going to RTZ, Anglo, etc.

 

At 15%, the PV of $1.00 5 years out, is only $0.49; at 20% it's down to $0.40. The very long life potash deposit is indeed a great asset to have; but it's VALUE today is essentially squat - because the bulk of its cashflow occurrs so far out in the future. Of course you may disagree, but  expect a very frustrating experience.

 

ALS seems to know what they are doing, but we would suggest to you that at this stage of their life - an investor is better off holding the equivalent in a mix of the global majors. Simply because the cashflow from a producing mine, is not discounted anywhere near as heavily as one from the distant 'future'.

 

SD

 

 

We’re discussing Altius’s producing royalties (purchased as mature producing royalties).

 

The answer to IF = yes.

 

The answer to WHEN = now.

 

The potash royalties will deliver C$20 million to Altius in 2019. That’s next year, not 15 years from now.

 

The future potash royalties are worth SQUAT with a 20% discount rate. The fundamental mistake you’re making is applying that rate. The risk doesn’t justify it.

 

I’m not interested in your portfolio of diversified miners. Anglo-American lost 95% of its equity value in the 2016 commodity bottom. FOH with that nonsense.

[linealdin]

I didn’t know a thing about Itochu but it is 204th on the Forbes Global 500. Itochu has higher annual revenue than Facebook, Rio Tinto, Alibaba and Coca-Cola.

 

The Allegiance Coal capex for the 750,000 tonne Tenas project is a modest US$61.8 million. Funding isn’t going to be an issue with Itochu as a joint venture partner.

 

The current Allegiance presentation indicates that Tenas supports a potential 36 year mine life based upon the 750,000 tonne annual production rate. There are two more ore bodies totalling more than double the Tenas resource.

 

Once the current smaller project survives permitting Allegiance will obviously try to expand production. The resources will support expansion. Only a large coking coal project will move the dial for Itochu.

[SharperDingaan]

Like it or not, we get paid for taking on risk.

 

At the project level the purchase of a royalty stream is inherently risky, as you have no idea as to IF (there is no royalty if the mine is never built, or the property nationalized) and WHEN (5 or 20 years?) that future royalty payment MIGHT arrive. The more variation in both magnitude and timing, the more risk, and the higher the discount rate. 15-20% is not unreasonable.

 

The discount is ONLY 15-20%, because ALS has been able to successfully diversify accross both cycle and commodity.

Diversification that gets more reliable, the longer they continue with what they are doing.

 

An ALS investor is looking to a rising cashflow paying for a growing dividend, and gains from the SALE of some of these royalties at/near the top of their commodity cycles. Proceeds funding the next round of royalty purchases in commodities further down in their commodity cycles; and almost ALL the cash going to dividends. ALS is still many years away from this, and a $ going to ALS competes against a $ going to RTZ, Anglo, etc.

 

At 15%, the PV of $1.00 5 years out, is only $0.49; at 20% it's down to $0.40. The very long life potash deposit is indeed a great asset to have; but it's VALUE today is essentially squat - because the bulk of its cashflow occurrs so far out in the future. Of course you may disagree, but  expect a very frustrating experience.

 

ALS seems to know what they are doing, but we would suggest to you that at this stage of their life - an investor is better off holding the equivalent in a mix of the global majors. Simply because the cashflow from a producing mine, is not discounted anywhere near as heavily as one from the distant 'future'.

 

SD

 

 

We’re discussing Altius’s producing royalties (purchased as mature producing royalties).

 

The answer to IF = yes.

 

The answer to WHEN = now.

 

The potash royalties will deliver C$20 million to Altius in 2019. That’s next year, not 15 years from now.

 

The future potash royalties are worth SQUAT with a 20% discount rate. The fundamental mistake you’re making is applying that rate. The risk doesn’t justify it.

 

I’m not interested in your portfolio of diversified miners. Anglo-American lost 95% of its equity value in the 2016 commodity bottom. FOH with that nonsense.

 

And what is the appropriate discount rate on all the OTHER properties they have a royalty on (ie: Kami Iron Ore)?

 

Yes the potash royalty is producing - but how much ALS gets paid on it depends on both volume produced, and how much it sells for. Were the mine to run flat out 2 years from now, but only get 1/2 the current price - it would be the same as producing today at just 50% of capacity. That cash flow variability is risk; we get paid for it, and further out in the future we go - the riskier it gets. It why the 'normal' yield curve slopes upwards.

 

Granted, maybe a 15-20% discount on the potash is a little high, but even at 7% - the PV of a cash-flow 20 years in the future is only $0.25. 7% is also an extremely generous discount rate. The 20 year Canada currently trades at a historically low 2.58% YTM, and the BoC is actively telegraphing an increase in the speed of the 25bp raises. Even if you love potash, that royalty is a LOT MORE than 3x riskier than a 20 year Canada.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkca-20y?countrycode=bx

https://globalnews.ca/news/4590070/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-2/

 

And that portfolio of diversified miners ...

If you had bought them in 2016, you would be how many times richer today than if you'd just held ALS? And if you believe that commodity prices are going up, wouldn't that quite likely STILL be the case - even if you bought that portfolio today? There are competing alternatives, and they also look very attractive.

 

You might not like it, but the ALS producing royalties act very much like a long-duration bond portfolio.

If you are not up on how duration or convexity works, it's highly likely to be a dissapointing experience as the BoC risk-free rate rises.

 

SD

 

 

 

[linealdin]

So much potential for Altius’s royalty on Telkwa. At double the 750,000 tonne Tenas initial rate, and with the additional development of the Goathern deposit, Altius could be enjoying C$12 million in annual royalties for 50+ years. Bulk commodity royalties can become monstrous.

 

Altius is doing what it can to accommodate development. Selling 100% of the project to Allegiance simplified the ownership structure and likely made it easier for Itochu to buy in.

 

There’s some discrepency with Altius’s website but Allegiance’s official filings in Australia indicate Altius holds a 3% to 4.5% sliding scale royalty on Telkwa. It is well above the threshold for a 4.5% royalty at current coking coal prices.

[linealdin]

Like it or not, we get paid for taking on risk.

 

At the project level the purchase of a royalty stream is inherently risky, as you have no idea as to IF (there is no royalty if the mine is never built, or the property nationalized) and WHEN (5 or 20 years?) that future royalty payment MIGHT arrive. The more variation in both magnitude and timing, the more risk, and the higher the discount rate. 15-20% is not unreasonable.

 

The discount is ONLY 15-20%, because ALS has been able to successfully diversify accross both cycle and commodity.

Diversification that gets more reliable, the longer they continue with what they are doing.

 

An ALS investor is looking to a rising cashflow paying for a growing dividend, and gains from the SALE of some of these royalties at/near the top of their commodity cycles. Proceeds funding the next round of royalty purchases in commodities further down in their commodity cycles; and almost ALL the cash going to dividends. ALS is still many years away from this, and a $ going to ALS competes against a $ going to RTZ, Anglo, etc.

 

At 15%, the PV of $1.00 5 years out, is only $0.49; at 20% it's down to $0.40. The very long life potash deposit is indeed a great asset to have; but it's VALUE today is essentially squat - because the bulk of its cashflow occurrs so far out in the future. Of course you may disagree, but  expect a very frustrating experience.

 

ALS seems to know what they are doing, but we would suggest to you that at this stage of their life - an investor is better off holding the equivalent in a mix of the global majors. Simply because the cashflow from a producing mine, is not discounted anywhere near as heavily as one from the distant 'future'.

 

SD

 

 

We’re discussing Altius’s producing royalties (purchased as mature producing royalties).

 

The answer to IF = yes.

 

The answer to WHEN = now.

 

The potash royalties will deliver C$20 million to Altius in 2019. That’s next year, not 15 years from now.

 

The future potash royalties are worth SQUAT with a 20% discount rate. The fundamental mistake you’re making is applying that rate. The risk doesn’t justify it.

 

I’m not interested in your portfolio of diversified miners. Anglo-American lost 95% of its equity value in the 2016 commodity bottom. FOH with that nonsense.

 

And what is the appropriate discount rate on all the OTHER properties they have a royalty on (ie: Kami Iron Ore)?

 

Yes the potash royalty is producing - but how much ALS gets paid on it depends on both volume produced, and how much it sells for. Were the mine to run flat out 2 years from now, but only get 1/2 the current price - it would be the same as producing today at just 50% of capacity. That cash flow variability is risk; we get paid for it, and further out in the future we go - the riskier it gets. It why the 'normal' yield curve slopes upwards.

 

Granted, maybe a 15-20% discount on the potash is a little high, but even at 7% - the PV of a cash-flow 20 years in the future is only $0.25. 7% is also an extremely generous discount rate. The 20 year Canada currently trades at a historically low 2.58% YTM, and the BoC is actively telegraphing an increase in the speed of the 25bp raises. Even if you love potash, that royalty is a LOT MORE than 3x riskier than a 20 year Canada.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkca-20y?countrycode=bx

https://globalnews.ca/news/4590070/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement-2/

 

And that portfolio of diversified miners ...

If you had bought them in 2016, you would be how many times richer today than if you'd just held ALS? And if you believe that commodity prices are going up, wouldn't that quite likely STILL be the case - even if you bought that portfolio today? There are competing alternatives, and they also look very attractive.

 

You might not like it, but the ALS producing royalties act very much like a long-duration bond portfolio.

If you are not up on how duration or convexity works, it's highly likely to be a dissapointing experience as the BoC risk-free rate rises.

 

SD

 

None of the OTHER royalties are assigned any significant value by the market. Again I would apply the Buffett method to the Kami future cash flows. Discount them at the risk free rate to make it easier to compare to other assets, apples to apples.

 

Then the real decision making starts. Is Kami going to be a mine. Yes or no? And the yes has to be definitive.

 

So for me Kami is a no therefore I assign it zero value. The skyhigh discount rates are a substitute for real thought.

 

*

 

The fundamental question is whether Altius bought the potash at the bottom of the cycle or at the top. If US$215 potash was the top of the cycle then Altius faces tremendous risk, they may not get their money back.

 

If US$215 potash was the bottom of the cycle then Altius faces very little risk. In fact, it’s all upside, just a question of whether potash tops out at US$600 or US$800.

 

I feel comfortable with my research indicating US$215 was the bottom. But I’m willing to hear informed opinions disputing that. But no opinions about the World War 1 potash prices, please. LOL

 

*

 

I’m focused on not losing the 95%. The rest will take care of itself.

 

 

 

[linealdin]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4887107

 

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Dwight Ball will be going to China at the end of next week to talk trade, particularly about the opportunities that could come from the revived Kami iron ore development in western Labrador.

 

"Iron ore is our biggest sector in trading of the $800 million [and] just over $300 million of that, as an example, goes to China," Ball told reporters at the House of Assembly on Wednesday.

 

“So it's important for us now to tell the great news of what the Labrador trough has in store and the possibilities for China so we'll be working with many companies, but Alderon certainly will be one of them."

[mikek]

Regarding the Allegiance coal royalty for Altius. It's 1.5 to 3 percent sliding scale right now depending on price. They have the option of buying 1.5 percent more taking it to 4.5 percent. The option price for that additional 1.5 percent is supposedly very low. Not sure about the exact cost on that additional 1.5 percent royalty but supposedly it's pretty much nothing compared to what it would pay if this project does become an actual mine. Personally, this one has a decent chance of becoming a mine "if" they get permits. The initial costs and IRR are too high not to become a mine if they can secure permits. It reminds me of the Excelsior mine in terms of those characteristics in terms of the mine economics. I would say this project has a better chance of becoming a mine than Alderon as a standalone project due to the low startup capital and cost curve.

[linealdin]

Regarding the Allegiance coal royalty for Altius. It's 1.5 to 3 percent sliding scale right now depending on price. They have the option of buying 1.5 percent more taking it to 4.5 percent. The option price for that additional 1.5 percent is supposedly very low. Not sure about the exact cost on that additional 1.5 percent royalty but supposedly it's pretty much nothing compared to what it would pay if this project does become an actual mine. Personally, this one has a decent chance of becoming a mine "if" they get permits. The initial costs and IRR are too high not to become a mine if they can secure permits. It reminds me of the Excelsior mine in terms of those characteristics in terms of the mine economics. I would say this project has a better chance of becoming a mine than Alderon as a standalone project due to the low startup capital and cost curve.

 

Excellent news. I was hoping the 4.5% royalty was still possible. Benchmark coking coal price must be US$120 or above for the 4.5% rate to kick in. Benchmark coking coal price is US$214 currently.

 

4.5% royalty brings in a lot of revenue even on a small project. On a medium size project (1.5 MTA to 2.5 MTA) it starts becoming very valuable.

 

I agree with MikeK. Telkwa, despite grumblings of opposition from a few locals, will more than likely become a mine.

 

I read the AFR article wrong. Itochu is paying a series of payments totaling A$7 million for a 20% stake on the project level of Telkwa. They can earn up to 50% with further payments.

[linealdin]

https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD4wa8wBCZof9oke92GA%3D%3D

 

Official details of the Allegiance Coal/Itochu JV deal. The first C$6.6 million is obtained by easily met benchmarks: permit application filings and delivery of the feasibility study.

 

The rest of the funding is to be obtained after more negotiation, perhaps on the basis of the feasibility study’s NPV for Tenas.

[linealdin]

http://www.allegiancecoal.com.au/irm/PDF/1465_0/InvestorPresentation

 

Allegiance Coal presentation:

 

1) Expectation that the Itochu earn-in to 50% of the project will cover most or all of the project’s equity funding requirements. Capex has risen to US$70 million.

 

2) Altius share position up to 55.7 million shares, or 10.9% of Allegiance. We should see some equity appreciation as the project takes permitting steps.

 

3) Telkwa shipping port is 3800 nautical miles from Tokyo. Newcastle Australia is 4300 nautical miles from Tokyo. Allegiance has structural advantage over Aussie coking coal producers because of lower shipping costs. Great project.

[linealdin]

http://www.explorationmidland.com/en/Communique.aspx?ResourceId=183d36c5-a0ab-4385-b88a-a39f0889fb4a

 

Midland extends strike length to 2km at Mythril high grade copper/gold discovery. Altius holds a 1% royalty and equity in Midland.

 

Mythril has the potential to become another Cuale: a project strong enough for a prospect generator to keep for itself, and turn into a flagship.

 

Samples up to 16.95% copper! Spectacular.

[Liberty]

... $1 growing at 20% a year is what ungodly number in 100 years?

 

$82,817,975.

 

[i'm so bored waiting for BRK 2018Q3!]

 

While we're doing the math:

 

"From the C$240.9 million + C$65 million combined purchase I expect Altius to receive about C$2.5 billion in this century. And more in the next."

 

$2.5bn from $305.9m over 82 years ("this century") is 2.6%/year CAGR.

[linealdin]

... $1 growing at 20% a year is what ungodly number in 100 years?

 

$82,817,975.

 

[i'm so bored waiting for BRK 2018Q3!]

 

While we're doing the math:

 

"From the C$240.9 million + C$65 million combined purchase I expect Altius to receive about C$2.5 billion in this century. And more in the next."

 

$2.5bn from $305.9m over 82 years ("this century") is 2.6%/year CAGR.

 

Not doing the math right. Payback is frontloaded heavily with coal revenue, not divided up evenly over 82 years. Details matter. Back to the drawing board.

[linealdin]

Altius bought back another 47,000 shares in early October.

[Liberty]

Not doing the math right. Payback is frontloaded heavily with coal revenue, not divided up evenly over 82 years. Details matter. Back to the drawing board.

 

So you expect the potash stream to go down over time and a lot of the amount to be upfront in coal? Doesn't that make the shortening of the coal royalty a big deal after all?

 

Please show me your numbers, since I can't divine them based on the little that you said about them.