Guest Dazel Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/long-term-uranium-prices-first-122000659.html The long term uranium price has risen for the first time since Jan 2011....Japan has looked to restart their nuclear program and china has given the go ahead for their program.... Slowly but surely...this is a big deal to Altius' future. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Liberty, I agree...the longer term...brings Great gains when shorts are wrong...I do not want to sound off the alarm bells... Those that were around for The Fairfax debacle say some crazy shit! The good news is that many fortunes were made on this board. If investors are prepared for a short attack they will do well...they have to understand the assets they own...however....as was the case with Fairfax when a $1.3 b company dropped 45% in minutes...it tests your metal. The good thing is that Fairfax is now worth over $8b Dazel Dazel Hey Dazel, I totally agree. I might not have been around when Fairfax went through this, but I own a lot of EBIX and I've seen what unscrupulous shorts can do to manipulate a stock. Still, I feel that they are wrong and that in the end they'll have permitted me to buy into a great business at a very low price.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 As expected, more buybacks are underway: http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ALS ADV up over 9% right now. Guess it's China's announcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsto Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Glad to see the buybacks have finally kicked in. I assumed that was what was supporting Altius at 10, but was getting a little worried cause I hadnt seen any filings in a while. I started looking at cliffs cause it seems pretty cheap and came across this thread (click on expanded view) on the yahoo forums where some employee at the mine is talking about some of their cost overruns and operating issues. I hope Alderon management is paying close attention to this so they can avoid making similar mistakes... http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=te&bn=3756&tid=64790&mid=64790&tof=4&frt=2#64790 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsto Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Also, pulled this link off the stockhouse forum. Interesting discussion of power needs in the area: http://www.nl.dailybusinessbuzz.ca/Provincial-News/2012-06-07/article-3002164/NL%3A-Mining-industry-needs-Muskrat-Falls,-says-Alderon-chairman/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Also, pulled this link off the stockhouse forum. Interesting discussion of power needs in the area: http://www.nl.dailybusinessbuzz.ca/Provincial-News/2012-06-07/article-3002164/NL%3A-Mining-industry-needs-Muskrat-Falls,-says-Alderon-chairman/1 Interesting. At least it seems like they always have the option of getting their power from the Quebec side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303768104577458003116697104.html?mod=googlenews_wsj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ADV Danny Williams is picking up some cheap Alderon shares! Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/millrock-and-vale-enter-option-agreement-concerning-the-audn-copper-gold-porphyry-project-alaska-2012-06-11-9173323 Millrock Resources Inc. CA:MRO +11.90% ("Millrock" or the "Company") announced today that it has entered into an option agreement with Vale Exploration USA, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Vale S.A. ("Vale"). The agreement is being entered pursuant to the strategic alliance agreement between Vale Exploration Canada Inc, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Vale S.A. and Millrock made October 11, 2011 (see press release dated October 17, 2011: http://millrockresources.com/news/millrock_and_vale_form_strategic_alliance_for_copper-gold_porphyry_dep/ ). The objective of the alliance is to discover large-scale copper - gold porphyry deposits in target zones of Alaska identified by Millrock. This is the first "Designated Project" under the strategic alliance agreement. The subject of the new option agreement is the AUDN project, a promising porphyry copper-gold target situated approximately 100 km southwest of the world-class Pebble deposit. The Millrock claim block is situated along a trend of porphyry occurrences. Aeromagnetic, gravity and radiometric potassium survey data indicate possible buried, mineralized intrusions within the AUDN project area. Millrock and Vale plan to carry out geophysical and geochemical surveys in 2012. Under the terms of the option agreement, Vale may earn a 65% interest by expending US$3.5 million for exploration on the project over a three-year period and by paying Millrock US$200,000. Upon earning its initial interest, Vale may elect to carry the full cost of further exploration and development until a feasibility study has been completed, and thereby earn an additional 10% interest, for a total 75% joint venture interest. Further development of the project would proceed with the parties contributing on a pro-rata basis. In the event that a joint venture party dilutes below a 10% interest, such interest would convert to a Net Smelter Returns royalty of 2% on gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium and 1% on all other metals. Under the terms of the strategic alliance agreement, Vale is providing funding to Millrock for research and early-stage exploration to identify targets that may be nominated for Designated Project status. The work is focused on specific, defined areas of interest in the Alaska Range and Alaska Peninsula porphyry belts. Strategic Alliance funding consists of a minimum US$1.0 million in the first year, and a further US$1.0 million at Vale's option in the second year. Funding for the strategic alliance may continue in subsequent years at funding levels to be determined between the parties. Initial investigations carried out by Millrock in 2010 were done with funding that Millrock received under a separate strategic alliance with Altius Minerals Corporation CA:ALS +1.04% ("Altius"). By virtue of that agreement Altius is entitled to a royalty on any mineral production that occurs from most of the claims comprising the AUDN project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 http://www.grandich.com/2012/06/grandich-client-alderon-iron-ore-5/ At the end of the post there is: Special Offer – To the party or parties who advocated shorting ADV, I like to make this offer to you; I will wager $100,000 that ADV makes a new, all-time high above $4 without ever going under $1 (That’s $1.78 higher from here versus just $1.22 below). If I win, you donate $100k to my favorite charity (http://www.fealgoodfoundation.com/) and if you win, I’ll donate $100k to yours). You know where to reach me if you’re interested. Wonder if someone will take him up on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I like quote in article: “those of us that live by the crystal ball overtime learn to eat a lot of broken glass.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moore_capital54 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I thought I would share this with you folks interested in the Canadian iron ore market, one of the better graphics I've seen on the Labrador Trough: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/LabradorTrough_Final.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Thanks for sharing that Moore, it is quite informative. I don't know who did the graphics for that but it is pretty impressive in how it puts things in perspective, especially the Kami project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Wonder if Cundill would ever have invested in Altius? What was your best investment ever? One of the best investments I have ever made was Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., on the face of it a boring old iron ore company based in Cleveland that specialized in producing iron ore pellets. In the ’80s, Cliffs had 40% of the pellet market in North America, but in a stock market environment where everyone was focusing on growth stocks, the share price more than halved. No one cared that it had what I like to call extra assets in the form of a power plant in Michigan, which was held at a very low value on the balance sheet. I bought and bought as the price went on dropping, and there seemed to be an endless supply of stock. Finally it ran out and the bull market of ’86-’87 carried Cliffs to levels where I was able to sell a good deal of the position at a substantial profit. The icing on the cake was the crash of October ’87 that allowed me to buy back all I’d sold plus a bit and do it all over again. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/an-interview-with-peter-cundill/article566267/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I studied some of Berkshire's late 70s investments a while ago to see what he was up to then. Turns out Buffett owned Cleveland-Cliffs then as well: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1980.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I studied some of Berkshire's late 70s investments a while ago to see what he was up to then. Turns out Buffett owned Cleveland-Cliffs then as well: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1980.html Sorry for the departure, but what happened to Woolworth as an investment? They tried to reinvent themselves into the discount stores (Woolco) but they failed (Innovators Dilemma, Christensen). Thinking about all these retailers RSH, SVU, OMX, BBY, JCP, SHLD, that I am avoiding for the moment. Also wondering why Buffett/Munger tried retail again after the bad experience with department stores in the 60s. A short answer would suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page504?oid=153722&sn=Detail&pid=102055 Iron ore up....bucking the tread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naboo Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 ADV June 2012 presentation: http://alderonironore.com/_resources/presentations/ADV_PPT.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 http://altiusminerals.com/uploads/April-2012-MDA-ver-7.pdf As expected...the loss was from their $6.7 m share of the loss from Alderon. We would like to see the $2.7m in interest from their treasury holdings become much higher from buying something in this environment...just to add to the upside of what is there. We are really excited at the prospect of a another international royalty like purchase in this environment. Near term Alderon continues to be a catalyst....when the feasibility study is done and the cash from their Hebei and Liberty partnership is in the treasury Alderon will rise significantly. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Altius looks like a sitting duck. With the industry cash strapped and bargains abound....buying out Altius at these prices makes sense. As we stated above we think Altius has a tremendous opportunity to deploy cash in this environment. However, with tight financing markets it would make sense for someone to be stalking Altius. We have written a great deal about the value in Altius. But In these times cash is "king". Royal Gold-case study for buying They get a 46 pe....their largest royalty is Voisey Bay....An Altius purchase is worth $4m x20% tax=$3.2m X 46= $147.2m value to Royal Gold's Mkt value. The cash and marketable securities become the equivalent of a capital raise at $77...which is $6 off their 52 week high....so they reload with cheap cash available for other acquisitions in this environment...this of course is assuming that they use their shares to purchase Altius. For free they get the other royalty portfolio....The $30m from Alderon future royalty at a low low 20 pe (less than half their multiple) would be worth $600m in market cap to Royal Gold....and when production hits 16mt it would be worth $1.2b to Royal gold. The economics are riducluous to other Royalty companies....we would be completey surprised if they were not being approached as royalty mulitples are so high elsewhere in the market...and Altius large cash equivalents make them a sitting duck. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Altius looks like a sitting duck. With the industry cash strapped and bargains abound....buying out Altius at these prices makes sense. As we stated above we think Altius has a tremendous opportunity to deploy cash in this environment. However, with tight financing markets it would make sense for someone to be stalking Altius. We have written a great deal about the value in Altius. But In these times cash is "king". Royal Gold-case study for buying They get a 46 pe....their largest royalty is Voisey Bay....An Altius purchase is worth $4m x20% tax=$3.2m X 46= $147.2m value to Royal Gold's Mkt value. The cash and marketable securities become the equivalent of a capital raise at $77...which is $6 off their 52 week high....so they reload with cheap cash available for other acquisitions in this environment...this of course is assuming that they use their shares to purchase Altius. For free they get the other royalty portfolio....The $30m from Alderon future royalty at a low low 20 pe (less than half their multiple) would be worth $600m in market cap to Royal Gold....and when production hits 16mt it would be worth $1.2b to Royal gold. The economics are riducluous to other Royalty companies....we would be completey surprised if they were not being approached as royalty mulitples are so high elsewhere in the market...and Altius large cash equivalents make them a sitting duck. Dazel. I certainly see how that would be a good deal for a royalty company, but I hope that's not how it plays out. Even at a decent premium, it would still feel like my shares were stolen.. I'd much rather see the team keep allocating capital and reap the full rewards from Alderon/Aurora/etc over the years, rather than see this great team diluted into a bigger company. Hopefully they are under the radar and can stay independent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Liberty, We agree but the selling we are seeing would make a 50 to 60% premium likely be taken by shareholders. Like you we think that is stealing the shares...but that is why we think they are in play...if you look at the Royal Gold numbers....they would be stupid not to consider it. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Liberty, We agree but the selling we are seeing would make a 50 to 60% premium likely be taken by shareholders. Like you we think that is stealing the shares...but that is why we think they are in play...if you look at the Royal Gold numbers....they would be stupid not to consider it. Dazel. It's also something they've done before... http://www.fasken.com/international-royalty-valued-at-700-million-in-arrangement-agreement-with-royal-gold/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Royal Gold bought International Royalty...Altius was the key investor in that negotiation...with a 10 % stake in irc...they know each other well... Brian Dalton could certainly run that company. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlennAS Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Hi Dazel. Long-time lurker but my first post on this forum. You stated, "With the industry cash strapped and bargains abound....buying out Altius at these prices makes sense" and "We agree but the selling we are seeing would make a 50 to 60% premium likely be taken by shareholders ... Like you we think that is stealing the shares...but that is why we think they are in play." This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. First of all, doesn't Brian Dalton and team have a nack for buying undervalued assets and selling them at the top of a cycle? To sell out to Royal Gold or any other entity under current market conditions, at such depressed valuation - particularly with the upside of Alderon (equity and future royalties), Aurora, cash on the balance sheet, etc. - just doesn't make sense to me. It would be very contrary to their modus operadi IMO. Definitely it makes sense from Royal Gold's perspective. Do you really think Altius shareholders would be happy with a 50-60% premium to current market prices? I know you're a large shareholder so maybe you could speak for large shareholders more than I could. But the only reason a large shareholder IMO would be happy getting a 50-60% premium for Altius at current prices if they needed the liquidity. However, it seems to me that Altius shares are largely owned by patient, long-term capital. So I'd be surprised if immediately liquidity was a sufficient rationale. BTW, how tight is the ownership structure of Altius? Altius has issued so few shares beyond its initial IPO that I would suspect that the stock is fairly tightly held. Finally, as a long-term lurker, thank you for your informed posts over the months/years. I've learned a great deal about the company from your posts. Regards, glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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