ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[StevieV]

By the time I retire I expect Altius will be paying C$2 to C$5 a share in annual dividends per share. Not an outrageous prediction considering Altius's low share count, low debt (versus cash and assets), revenue growth, and ultra long life royalties.

 

That's not much of a prediction at all without a timeframe, or at least a timeframe I can identify.  When do you expect to retire?  10 years?  50 years?

 

Thanks.

[linealdin]

By the time I retire I expect Altius will be paying C$2 to C$5 a share in annual dividends per share. Not an outrageous prediction considering Altius's low share count, low debt (versus cash and assets), revenue growth, and ultra long life royalties.

 

That's not much of a prediction at all without a timeframe, or at least a timeframe I can identify.  When do you expect to retire?  10 years?  50 years?

 

Thanks.

 

I want to work 25 more years.

[linealdin]

In terms of debt reduction Altius is at C$119 million as of April 30th, 2019. I want to see debt reduced to C$95 million by year end 2019.

 

Junior equity sales will help with that task. Radius Gold in recent months went from 10 cents to 46 cents on drill results. Believe me, Chad Wells is paying attention and looking for opportunities to unload. Block trades or just selling into crazy volume.

 

20 cents in annual dividends only costs Altius C$8.57 million. Reducing debt from C$135 million to zero will free up another C$7.32 million of interest payments, and redirect to dividends. A way to almost double the dividend (without any revenue growth required).

 

 

[bizaro86]

By the time I retire I expect Altius will be paying C$2 to C$5 a share in annual dividends per share. Not an outrageous prediction considering Altius's low share count, low debt (versus cash and assets), revenue growth, and ultra long life royalties.

 

That's not much of a prediction at all without a timeframe, or at least a timeframe I can identify.  When do you expect to retire?  10 years?  50 years?

 

Thanks.

 

I want to work 25 more years.

 

So cagr of dividend growth over 25 years would be 9.65% - 13.75%.

 

They have the advantage of starting at a low dividend, so their payout ratio could grow over time. That will probably require some organic mines to get built on prospect generation land, or a couple of big scores on junior positions that get rolled into royalties, but it isn't out of line.

[linealdin]

By the time I retire I expect Altius will be paying C$2 to C$5 a share in annual dividends per share. Not an outrageous prediction considering Altius's low share count, low debt (versus cash and assets), revenue growth, and ultra long life royalties.

 

That's not much of a prediction at all without a timeframe, or at least a timeframe I can identify.  When do you expect to retire?  10 years?  50 years?

 

Thanks.

 

I want to work 25 more years.

 

So cagr of dividend growth over 25 years would be 9.65% - 13.75%.

 

They have the advantage of starting at a low dividend, so their payout ratio could grow over time. That will probably require some organic mines to get built on prospect generation land, or a couple of big scores on junior positions that get rolled into royalties, but it isn't out of line.

 

Altius could probably pay C$1.25 per share in 2019 dividends, based upon the C$90 million in revenue I believe they will receive this year.

 

42.86 million shares x C$1.25 = C$53.575 million paid to shareholders.

 

Of course this would require extreme austerity in all other business operations. No equity or royalty purchases, no consultant fees, no claim staking, fire half the staff, work from home, shut down the website etc. Basically turn Altius into a royalty pass-through vehicle like LIF. I think it would technically be possible to pay that amount.

 

Altius will get to C$2+ in dividends per share organically. Keep growing the business with smart, patient moves.

 

 

[linealdin]

https://thevault.exchange/?get_group_doc=143/1557373438-AngloGoldAshantiQ12019ExplorationUpdate.pdf

 

Anglogold exploration update with the latest info on Silicon (Altius 1.5% royalty and Rengold equity):

 

“In the United States, the RC and DD programmes continued at the Silicon project (Option Earn-In Agreement for 100%) with 8,034m completed in the quarter. These follow up on encouraging alteration observed in the Silicon-Thompson structural corridor drilling to date along with favourable litho- structural targets identified. An IP survey was completed to assist in defining targets at the project. This was followed late in the quarter by the start of a ground magnetic survey.”

 

Encouraging. Favorable. And new IP and ground magnetic surveys ordered. After the current 17,000 meter drill program finishes in May does Anglogold order an even larger followup drill program to delineate an initial resource?

[mikek]

Biggest takeaway from the Altius conference call was a question about if there has been any updates on Alderon. Usually Brian says he has no insight on the asset with regard to how it is progressing. I could be reading it wrong how he spoke on it but it seemed to be worded a little different this time. Altius does have a board member once again so obviously what he can and cannot say is pretty tight lid but he would have a little more private information compared to usual. It seemed more of an answer of something might be in the works but cannot discuss it. I could be completely misinterpreting what he was saying but after listening to his responses for many years I felt he worded the answer a bit differently this time. Complete speculation on that information but I would still be completely shocked if Alderon gets built anytime soon.

 

Would be curious if anyone else got that feeling on his comment. It seemed like a comment of things possibly in the works but cannot discuss compared to the typical response of no insight.

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

No comment.

 

SD

 

[nostradamus]

I also got the sense that something is in the works on Alderon from the wording of his response.

[linealdin]

I think stuff will happen with Alderon but it's small ball. A strategic investor to pay back the US$14 million loan made by Sprott and Altius, in exchange for equity, has to be the first move. I'm a little surprised it hasn't been done already. Alderon execs are a little too careful.

 

Champion gave away tons of cheap paper bringing on strategic investors during the downturn. It worked. Follow that model, bring more investor groups in. The more the merrier.

[linealdin]

A few more details from the conference call:

 

1) Champion share position down to 2.5 million. 5 million shares sold in Q1 for around C$1.40 a share, then 2.5 million shares sold early in Q2 for around C$2.20 a share.

 

2) It seems like they are marketing the Altius Renewable Royalties subsidiary to institutions and brokers. Eventually it IPO’s as a standalone vehicle? The management team, led by Frank Getman, is in place. Or maybe they are looking for a partner who will invest alongside into larger royalties.

 

3) Altius offered to buy the more outlying Chapada exploration lands from Yamana in 2016. They were that excited about the copper exploration potential. They believe Lundin has a chance to find completely new copper ore bodies on the land package.

 

4) Dalton finds it ironic that the Alberta utilities were quick to take the compensation cash but slow to make substantive shutdowns of the coal plants. He sees what I see: slowplay. The utilities are adding the flexibility to dual-fire with natural gas (slowly) instead of full conversions to gas.

 

The loud proclamations of being off-coal don’t match with reality. Lots of coal will be burnt in Alberta for many more years.

 

5) Yes, it sounds like Alderon will have something to announce soon.

[linealdin]

https://www.excelsiormining.com/news/news-2019/Excelsior_Mining_Successfully_Conducts_Production_Wellfield_Pump_Tests_and_Provides_Mine_Construction_Update

 

Excelsior wellfield pump tests and construction update. They are executing well.

[linealdin]

https://m.miningweekly.com/article/even-trudeaus-canada-gripped-in-carbon-fight-wont-ditch-coal-2019-05-10

 

"The province swung right in an election in April, with Jason Kenney becoming premier after pledging to reinvigorate the oil patch and kill the province’s carbon tax. He’s also expanding the allowable life of coal-fired power plants, easing back restrictions on thermal coal’s use."

 

Is Kenney extending the Alberta coal plant lives? Dalton also mentioned on the conference call that one of Kenney's campaign promises was to provide compensation for those with assets effectively expropriated by the NDP's radical environmental policies. We shall see if promises are kept.

[linealdin]

https://www.capitalpower.com/InvestorRelations/FinancialReporting/Documents/2019%20Q1%20Transcripts.pdf

 

“In terms of timing, a lower carbon tax certainly does have the impact of potentially pushing out converting to natural gas. On the other hand, lower natural gas prices tend to kind of bring it forward. Again, it continues to be dynamic, and in the environment, in this kind of environment is the reason why we believe that maximizing our optionality, both on a current basis and a long- term basis, makes the most sense for investors.”

 

This is the Capital Power (Genesee power plants) current position on coal to gas conversions. The UCP plan is to reduce carbon tax from $30 to $20 a tonne starting January 2020. This significantly helps coal power. Capital Power also has an inventory of offset credits that reduce coal power compliance cost through 2022.

 

Alberta natural gas producers have been going bankrupt recently because of depressed gas prices. Distressed producers don’t invest in capex, production declines, and eventually natural gas prices rise. Hopefully soon enough to dissuade Capital Power from converting Genesee too early.

 

I want to see a weighted average of another 8 years of royalty revenue from the Genesee complex.

[linealdin]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1SG0NW

 

China's environment ministry last week ordered mills to target ultra-low emission levels to improve air quality, meaning advanced equipment and better quality iron ore.

 

"In the longer term, because of the changes in the Chinese steel industry...as well as tighter emissions controls, we see a very significant demand pool and preference for high-grade iron ores," said Siddarth Aggarwal, market analysis manager for iron ore and ferrous trading at Anglo American.

 

Prices of 65% iron-content ore for delivery to China hit a five-year-peak of $110.5 a tonne on Thursday, while its premium to benchmark 62 percent ore widened to five-month highs.

 

 

 

 

[Liberty]

Trivia: This thread has more pages than the AMZN, FB and GOOG threads combined.

[linealdin]

Trivia: This thread has more pages than the AMZN, FB and GOOG threads combined.

 

This is not about Amazon or Google. Let’s get to the bottom line: No one gives a shit about Constellation Software (40% of the posts about Constellation are by Liberty). Investors seem to be more interested in Altius (based upon the views). And that hurts his feelings.

[wachtwoord]

Well this thread is so long and so active because there's someone updating it with every piece of news that comes out, not a lot of threads on this forum have someone as dedicated as linealdin.

 

Other than that the post count in a particular topic says little about the merit of the investment (although I'm sure in a generalized fashion some correlations must exist).

 

Just stop fighting each other. Live and let live applies here since posting in a forum is not a zero-sum-game.

 

(In cases of zero-sum games, eat of be eaten applies).

 

/meta

[cwericb]

I and other ALS investors appreciate the fact that someone here has taken the initiative to post not only the daily news regarding the company but he also puts his own interpretaion of that news out there. I wish the same info was available on some of my other investments. Thanks Linealdin.

[nostradamus]

I and other ALS investors appreciate the fact that someone here has taken the initiative to post not only the daily news regarding the company but he also puts his own interpretaion of that news out there. I wish the same info was available on some of my other investments. Thanks Linealdin.

+1

[SharperDingaan]

I and other ALS investors appreciate the fact that someone here has taken the initiative to post not only the daily news regarding the company but he also puts his own interpretaion of that news out there. I wish the same info was available on some of my other investments. Thanks Linealdin.

+1

 

SD

 

[Cardboard]

+1

 

Totally nailed it on that Liberty guy!

 

Cardboard

[Liberty]

Trivia: This thread has more pages than the AMZN, FB and GOOG threads combined.

 

This is not about Amazon or Google. Let’s get to the bottom line: No one gives a shit about Constellation Software (40% of the posts about Constellation are by Liberty). Investors seem to be more interested in Altius (based upon the views). And that hurts his feelings.

 

Interesting what you've read into my simple observation that there's a lot more newsflow here about a small cap than about a few trillion dollars of market cap. Did I tell you to stop or that it was a bad thing? You can do whatever you want with your time and money, but obviously you're very emotional and defensive about this.

 

You can keep the score with pageviews if you want (on a thread started 4 years earlier than another thread). I'd rather make money.

 

[linealdin]

http://www.labradorironore.com/News-Releases/Press-Release-Details/2019/Labrador-Iron-Ore-Royalty-Corporation-results-for-the-first-quarter-ended-March-31-2019/default.aspx

 

Q1 LIF results. IOC declares a dividend of US$125 million to its shareholders. LIF’s 15.1% portion of that is US$18.875 million, or C$25.43 million. Their cash position on May 23rd should be around C$64 million, or C$1 per share.

 

LIF well positioned to pay between C$1 and C$1.50 per share in Q2 dividends.

 

 

[petec]

Just stop fighting each other. Live and let live applies here since posting in a forum is not a zero-sum-game.

 

+1. Just don't open the thread if you don't like what you know you're going to find.

 

Meanwhile linealdin thanks for sharing your encyclopaedic knowledge.