Guest Dazel Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Glenn, What in play means to us is an unsolicited bid...we agree with all that Altius is in the sweet spot..we also agree that 50 to 60 % is low....however, if you have a hedge fund come in that has a low average cost 50 to 60% return is pretty damn good. Remember Altius did the exact same thing to Irc shareholders...they wanted a deal and got it done they owned 10% of IRC and made 80%... had they held they would have made a lot more...but they wanted the money... We are not saying that the same thing will happen here but the shares are so undervalued that we could see the same scenario playing out. We only used Royal Gold as an example of what Altius assets are worth to someone else....the market does not see this..but other royalty companies will as Altius did with International Royalty Corp. We do not see management happy with any of what we have said....but we are in a market and undervalued Assets draw the attention of other businesses....that is all I am saying...it can only go on so long before someone realizes it would cost more than double and many years to re create it...when it can be bought over a couple of phone calls. Dazel. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlennAS Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Aah. Thanks for the clarification re: "in play". A quick follow-up. Do you know how tightly held the stock is? Does Dalton and team have enough support from a majority of shareholders in your opinion to block an unfriendly takeover attempt? TIA. glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 One thing I find strange is that we haven't gotten reports that Altius has been buying back shares in a while. The last time they did, last year (iirc), they filed every few days and it popped up on CanadianInsider. But lately, nothing, despite them putting the buybacks in third party hands to avoid conflicts with material info. I hope they are buying as much as possible and we're just not seeing the reports filed as quickly as before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Anybody considering Alderon shares for arbitrage? Soon the Hebei money will come trough at 3.42$/shares, each of these dollars will be added in the treasury of Alderon. So if each of the 100M shares are currently worth 2.23$ and Hebei adds another 25M shares at 3.42$/share that bring the value of Alderon to (100*2.23 + 25*3.42)/125=2.46$. A nice 10% arbitrage yield. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 One thing I find strange is that we haven't gotten reports that Altius has been buying back shares in a while. The last time they did, last year (iirc), they filed every few days and it popped up on CanadianInsider. But lately, nothing, despite them putting the buybacks in third party hands to avoid conflicts with material info. I hope they are buying as much as possible and we're just not seeing the reports filed as quickly as before... Have wondered that myself especially with recent price weakness. Because a 3rd party is purchasing would it show up in Canadian insider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Have wondered that myself especially with recent price weakness. Because a 3rd party is purchasing would it show up in Canadian insider There's one showing for June 12: http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=als I would assume they still have to file even if it's a third party, since it's still for them, even if indirectly. But I don't know the specifics of those regulations. If anyone knows, I'd love to learn how this works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 http://altiusminerals.com/press-releases/view/261 ALTIUS MINERALS CORPORATION (TSX:ALS) ANNOUNCES STRATEGIC ALLIANCE WITH VIRGINIA MINES INC. Altius and Virginia to jointly undertake grass roots exploration in Quebec and Labrador St. John’s - Altius Minerals Corporation (“Altius”) is pleased to announce that it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”) with Virginia Mines Inc. (TSX:VGQ) ("Virginia") whereby Altius and Virginia will cooperate to explore for base metals and precious metals on the North Shore area of Quebec and in southern Labrador . This strategic alliance merges two project generation teams that have exhibited excellent track records of exploration success and also in attracting strong partners to their respective home jurisdictions in eastern Canada. Altius and Virginia will share their collective experience and databases, co-fund early stage exploration programs, and jointly seek partners for any new projects that are created in eastern Quebec and southern Labrador. Target evaluation is underway and an initial reconnaissance field campaign is being planned for the upcoming field season. Altius will be the operator during the first year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The Virginia Mines version of the PR gives a dollar figure on the budget for the strategic alliance - $600k for 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjsto Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 more buybacks: http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=als Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 more buybacks: http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=als It looks like they are now reporting them once a month because of their new third party setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Fraser Mackensie Metals & Mines comment June 26, 2012 Alderon Iron Ore (TSX:ADV): Analysing the Impact of a Re-priced Hebei Deal – Still a Compelling Investment http://www.grandich.com/2012/06/grandich-client-alderon-iron-ore-6/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Anybody knows when the Hebei money is suppose to come trough? BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bathtime Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I think the 90-day timeline for Chinese government approval comes around July 15. My reading of the PR is that if there is no government approval by then, Alderon can do a deal with someone else by paying a penalty fee, but I assume Alderon wants to proceed with Hebei even if approval is delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LTVALUE Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Alderon off-take partner Hebei Steel gets Chinese government approval http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/08/hebei-invest-idINL3E8I800X20120708 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Alderon off-take partner Hebei Steel gets Chinese government approval http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/08/hebei-invest-idINL3E8I800X20120708 Thanks, that's good news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The last line is the most important..."China has urged steel producers to source at least half of their production from chinese owned or Chinese projects" The Chinese government will be subsidizing these steel companies to help that goal above...look for Kami to be fast tracked after the bankable feasibility study is released and the other Altius projects to get more interest from the Chinese.... The other forgotten factor is that china is going full speed ahead on their nuclear program...the stimulus they will create are for large infrastructure projects...nuclear, rail etc....not housing. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The Kami project development costs have dropped significantly in the last 6 months...while iron ore prices while coming down have remained at hugely profitable levels for Kami's economics...we see this team racing to production to take advantage of some of these costs savings for development... At a cost per ton of below $50 make Kami very very profitable even if iron ore prices were to drop significantly more. What investors are missing is that china has been in tightening mode for a long time....now they are stimulus focused....with trillions in foreign reserves to secure long term security of their resource needs...Kami et all fit perfectly in their plan Dazel. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Hebei iron ore could have used the Chinese approval as a tactic to negotiate with Alderon as we know they have pull with the government....a delay in approval would have done it...late paperwork or whatever. It shows their commitment to the Kami project and they are likely as eager as Alderon to get to work...and reap the huge benefits of the economics... At these levels it will be a home run investment for Hebei iron ore and everyone else involved. We expect the bankable feasibility study soon which triggers the money transfer. After that the project will get great interest from the investment houses because over the next few years they will raise a great deal of debt financing....the investment houses will have to compete fro this financing as Hebei iron ore is huge and has the variability of cheap financing from china....today is a big step. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Dazel, I was thinking along similar lines. If Hebei had wanted to reprice the deal or squeeze the lemon more, they probably would have done it before government approval. But the Alderon people aren't patsies, they probably have made it clear to Hebei that if they didn't want the deal, they had other suitors waiting in the wings. So chances are that as much pressure as Hebei can put on Alderon, ADV can dish it back to them, which is why they got the deal they got. Just speculation, but it sounds likely based on comments from the ADV CEO a few months ago (something along the lines of: "we could get a deal right now if we wanted to, but we're waiting for the right deal"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Make no mistake we are speculating when we are saying that Hebei even considered anything to do with the terms of the deal...it is more likely they are pleased with being part of the tremendous opportunity in front of them as partners with Alderon...they stand to make a lot of money. dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 one more thing.... Hebei iron ore is massive....this is not a large deal for them capital wise...but a great return on capital and securing iron ore for the future...gives them negotiating power over the big boys..it is a good strategy as Wisco found out with Thompson Considated. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-10/billionaire-forrest-leads-blackrock-buying-iron-ore-commodities.html?cmpid=yhoo We like to see investors putting their money where their mouth is...not talking the talk on a day trade on cnbc... We are also happy to see Altius is doing the same by buying back shares in this environment. A side note...has anyone else seen the release that new homes sale prices rose for the first time in 10 months in June in China.. I haven't. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX: ADV) (NYSE MKT: AXX) ("Alderon" or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the results of the final mineral resource estimate on its Kamistiatusset (“Kami”) Iron Ore Project in western Labrador. The estimate includes a Measured and Indicated mineral resource of 1.1 billion tonnes at 29.8% iron and an Inferred mineral resource of 277.4 million tonnes at 29.5% iron (refer to tables below for tonnage and grade details) based on a cut-off grade of 20% iron. “We are extremely pleased with this final resource estimate for Kami,” says Tayfun Eldem, President and CEO of Alderon. “The completion of each successive drill program has resulted in an increase in the mineral resource estimate, while continuing to confirm consistent grades. The final numbers clearly underline the potential and the value of the Kami Project. The Measured and Indicated mineral resources will form the basis for Kami’s Feasibility Study that is expected to be completed before the end of this year." http://www.alderonironore.com/_resources/news/2012-07-11-NewsRelease.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value-is-what-you-get Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Danny Williams is suing a guy from the Sierra Club for defamation over the proposed Muskrat Falls power dam. Here's a remarkable little quote from the Winnipeg Free Press from the statement of claim: "The plaintiffs are not party to or involved with Altius in respect to the financing of Muskrat Falls by way of a royalty trust proposal or agreement or otherwise; and are not hiding such proposal or agreement from the citizens of Newfoundland and Labrador; "The plaintiffs are not party to or involved with the alleged royalty trust and will not personally gain from such a proposal or agreement." Is Altius in the process of securing a royalty stream from the power all of the producers in the area will be using? If so, that's sharp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 i think there was a link to blog post a while back on this thread about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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