Williams406 Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 RE Champion Kami purchase, I wonder how much Champion needs the reserves? Seems like Altius' 3% royalty on Kami ensures those resources are mined so far in the future the royalty NPV for Altius is de minimis. Supposedly it was a competitive process, I wonder who Altius wanted to wind up with the asset. https://globalminingobserver.com/ See "Ticking Clock" about halfway down for a short non-precious metals royalty piece. New-player Trident CEO comments and Deterra mentioned. Nothing earth-shaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Nice long uplifting interview with Brian Dalton: He thinks the renewables arm of the business could ultimately eclipse all the other elements. As a long standing shareholder (who was initially quite skeptical about the renewables arm), I hope he is right. He certainly sounds confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrifty3000 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 He has also said the potash royalties could be worth the current market cap of the business (around $500 mil at the time) 10 years from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 The great thing about protections that are 10 years out....not many current shareholders will be around then to hold you to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 At this rate I'm thinking, oh well only another ten years... ALS stock makes GIC's look good. sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 The great thing about protections that are 10 years out....not many current shareholders will be around then to hold you to them. Indeed ... I think this has been dead money for me for nearly ten ... but hey they say they are increasing value all the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cuchulainn Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Book Value per share April 2015 $8.06 Book Value per share Sept 2020. $5.58 (ex pref shares) Admittedly, BV as a value metric is limited and has flaws but the compound growth in royalty revenue cited continually by management, does not seem to be translating into growth for shareholders. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 For those interested, this is the transcript of a good interview with Dalton recently. https://articles.cruxinvestor.com/altius-minerals-als-green-economy-royalty-group-attracts-big-money-transcript Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reader Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 "Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corporation (the "Corporation") announced that Iron Ore Company of Canada ("IOC") has declared a dividend payable on December 17, 2020. The Corporation's portion is the U.S. $67,950,000 or about CDN. $88.3 million." https://labradorironore.com/news/iron-ore-company-of-canada-dividend-2059/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omagh Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Book Value per share April 2015 $8.06 Book Value per share Sept 2020. $5.58 (ex pref shares) Admittedly, BV as a value metric is limited and has flaws but the compound growth in royalty revenue cited continually by management, does not seem to be translating into growth for shareholders. Am I missing something? Take a free cash flow view. The growth in FCF is the forward view and shows what Dalton's re-orientation of the company into a royalty holder has done. It's an investment company with small capital requirements. All of the operating cash flows are being reinvested. For some of their investments, they act as the GP and then do capital raises to do the build and to operate. For others, they are just a royalty holder. They have opened up new markets (metals, minerals, power) to what is in effect a high-rent capital with long durations. They have been able to gather a set of partners who are capital providers. They have a steady pipeline of reinvestment opportunities. In March 2020, ALS was down below 10x normalized 2020 FCF which made for a decent entry point. FCF has grown from -$21M in 2015 to $30M (TTM) on a fairly steady path. Altius has also been returning capital to shareholders via share repurchases and a modest dividend. Today, Altius is at 15x normalized FCF. On the negative side, Altius is in a business which has some speculative investments that occasionally need to be written down. Conversely, Altius takes a value-based approach, maintains decent capital levels and expects to buy assets and future cashflows at significant discounts. Past history shows in cyclical industries that commodity prices fluctuate wildly based on supply and demand which gives them the opportunity to buy at a discount and sell at a premium depending on the market cycle point. Many on this board have bought looking at the potential cyclical commidity premium story, where a compounding cashflow story is more realistic. YMMV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Book Value per share April 2015 $8.06 Book Value per share Sept 2020. $5.58 (ex pref shares) Admittedly, BV as a value metric is limited and has flaws but the compound growth in royalty revenue cited continually by management, does not seem to be translating into growth for shareholders. Am I missing something? They've exchanged a bunch of cash for cash-flowing assets. The question isn't at that level, IMO. It's how much value is being created with your capital, how much will be created going forward, and are the assets in aggregate durable and growing, or slowly running off (return of capital, rather than return on capital). Have they shown the capacity of creating enough value in the space to be worth investing in vs all the other companies available to you on the public markets (which is the question you should ask before any investment that falls in your circle of competence). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Article on Seeking Alpha about Altius: Altius Minerals Is Undervalued With Upside Optionality https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394630-altius-minerals-is-undervalued-upside-optionality?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=atusf-altius-minerals-is-undervalued-with-upside-optionality&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Article on Seeking Alpha about Altius: Altius Minerals Is Undervalued With Upside Optionality https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394630-altius-minerals-is-undervalued-upside-optionality?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=atusf-altius-minerals-is-undervalued-with-upside-optionality&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0 I'm afraid to hope for anything positive at Kami, but that WOULD be a game changer. Massive increase in cash flow would likely lead to a multi-fold increase in the dividend while still allowing some retention for additional capital investment. I won't be buying more until price craters lower OR this becomes more certain though. Have been bag holding for years waiting for Kami and hoping the market gives the company credit for the massive transformation it has undergone over the past 9 years....but not much return to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Article on Seeking Alpha about Altius: Altius Minerals Is Undervalued With Upside Optionality https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394630-altius-minerals-is-undervalued-upside-optionality?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=atusf-altius-minerals-is-undervalued-with-upside-optionality&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0 I'm afraid to hope for anything positive at Kami, but that WOULD be a game changer. Massive increase in cash flow would likely lead to a multi-fold increase in the dividend while still allowing some retention for additional capital investment. I won't be buying more until price craters lower OR this becomes more certain though. Have been bag holding for years waiting for Kami and hoping the market gives the company credit for the massive transformation it has undergone over the past 9 years....but not much return to show for it. I share your pain :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 First copper cathode produced at gunnison (on which ALS has a 1.625% gross sales royality): https://www.excelsiormining.com/news/news-2020/xcelsioriningroducesirstopperathode20201221 First copper sales expected in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reader Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 AbraPlata Resource Corp. live webinar (w/ replay) Thursday, January 7th, 4:05 PM EST Altius Minerals 11% https://mailchi.mp/amvestcapital.com/join-us-abraplata-resource-webinar-thurs-jan-7-405-pm-est-well-funded-silver-and-gold-exploration?e=1979b7cf7b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reader Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Altius Provides Update on Coal Litigation Hearings Things aren't going Altius' way. "On January 4, 2021, the Master granted the application to dismiss the Statement of Claim on a summary basis and without a trial. Altius believes that this decision is in error and incorrectly applies the law on taking and constructive expropriation. It is entitled to a full hearing before a Justice of the Court and intends to appeal the decision to a Justice of the Court promptly." https://altius.cmail20.com/t/ViewEmail/d/F466B86C9C65637E2540EF23F30FEDED/80294187C83511503EDEEDC46EB9B960 edit:period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reader Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Altius Participates in Lithium Royalty Corporation Financing More interest in Altius' assets. https://altiusminerals.com/press-releases "Lithium Royalty Corporation (“LRC”) LRC, of which Altius is a 12.6% founding level investor, has agreed to a US$40 million investment by New York based private equity firm Riverstone Holdings, part of a larger US$70.7 million offering by LRC. Pursuant to this investment Altius has exercised its pro-rata equity participation right (through investments in affiliated limited partnership LRC LP I) by committing an additional US$7.6 million. Altius also continues to maintain a direct 10% co-participation right with respect to future LRC royalty level investments and a board nomination right. Lithium Royalty Corporation was founded in May 2018 as a private royalty and streaming company focused on the lithium mining sector. It is managed through Waratah Capital Advisors Ltd. and led by CEO Ernie Ortiz. Since inception, LRC has acquired four pre-feasibility through production stage royalties including both brine and spodumene based projects that are located in Australia, Brazil and Argentina" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Altius Participates in Lithium Royalty Corporation Financing More interest in Altius' assets. https://altiusminerals.com/press-releases "Lithium Royalty Corporation (“LRC”) LRC, of which Altius is a 12.6% founding level investor, has agreed to a US$40 million investment by New York based private equity firm Riverstone Holdings, part of a larger US$70.7 million offering by LRC. Pursuant to this investment Altius has exercised its pro-rata equity participation right (through investments in affiliated limited partnership LRC LP I) by committing an additional US$7.6 million. Altius also continues to maintain a direct 10% co-participation right with respect to future LRC royalty level investments and a board nomination right. Lithium Royalty Corporation was founded in May 2018 as a private royalty and streaming company focused on the lithium mining sector. It is managed through Waratah Capital Advisors Ltd. and led by CEO Ernie Ortiz. Since inception, LRC has acquired four pre-feasibility through production stage royalties including both brine and spodumene based projects that are located in Australia, Brazil and Argentina" I'm probably being a bit dumb, but is it possible to work out from this transaction what is the implied valuation of Lithium Royalty Corporation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reader Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I don't think we have enough info to get LRC's valuation. I'd asked for the latest presentation on LRC's site but it looks outdated so we'll see. https://lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Out of interest, does anyone here have a reasonably reasoned view on what ALS is worth/should be trading at? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Out of interest, does anyone here have a reasonably reasoned view on what ALS is worth/should be trading at? Thank you. I had models once - but since it's literally been below those prices the entire time I've owned it (since like 2013-ish), I'm beginning to think they're wrong and I just cross my fingers and hope :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Out of interest, does anyone here have a reasonably reasoned view on what ALS is worth/should be trading at? Thank you. In the long term the market is a weighting machine, right? If you look at the long term chart, you probably get a pretty good idea of the company's value.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Out of interest, does anyone here have a reasonably reasoned view on what ALS is worth/should be trading at? Thank you. Last time I did it I came up with about $15-16 CAD iirc. So I was buying in the spring and have been selling recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Thank you all... same boat, should've given up on this a long time ago. I vaguely recall myself writing something on this board ca. 2014? wondering out loud whether management is ever going to actually deliver value or was just content with their salary and maybe share price increases when they are going to retire. Perhaps that's what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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