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ALS.TO - Altius Minerals


Guest Dazel

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Mamba begins drilling the 7th of february. Stock is also showing strength - it's near its all-time-high. Current Mcap of about $15M... once Altius gets its 20% stake that will be worth $3M+. I am pretty confident Mamba will hit some nice Fe intercepts as they are for sure trying to get investors attention to do another financing in a year or so. So they'll probably drill some higher risk holes to hit it big. 6 holes in total in Phase I.

 

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/MAB.AX/key-developments/article/2677417

 

Cheers,

hohi.

 

Is ALS involved with Mamba?

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So Hebei investment timing is sometime in the first, second (outside chance of third) week of February based on:

 

 

"As stated in our news release, the feasibility study results meet all of the threshold

criteria for Hebei’s project-level investment of $120 million dollars. We will be delivering

the official feasibility study to Hebei in the latter half of this month and expect to close lderon Feasibility Study Results – January 9, 2013  5

the next tranche of their investment sometime in February and this is consistent with the

timeline captured in our agreement. "

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So Hebei investment timing is sometime in the first, second (outside chance of third) week of February based on:

 

 

"As stated in our news release, the feasibility study results meet all of the threshold

criteria for Hebei’s project-level investment of $120 million dollars. We will be delivering

the official feasibility study to Hebei in the latter half of this month and expect to close lderon Feasibility Study Results – January 9, 2013  5

the next tranche of their investment sometime in February and this is consistent with the

timeline captured in our agreement. "

15 business days will point to Feb 7th. Chinese will have Feb 9th to 15th off for their New Year holidays.

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Nev Power, chief executive, said he expected the benchmark price to average US$120 a tonne in 2013, down from its current level of US$147.70. But he said the price would be underpinned around US$120 by the pro-growth policies of the Chinese government.

..

UBS expects the spot price to hit US$110 by the end of the year.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/615da72e-65ef-11e2-bb67-00144feab49a.html#ixzz2JQgFcEs8

 

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http://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3149020/Iron-ore-and-coking-coal/Spot-635-Fe-iron-ore-prices-up-3-4-per-tonne-on-positive-sentiment.html

 

 

Prices have risen above $150 again....to be clear it is only the steel producers that know what they are willing to pay. We like being in bed with Hebei the largest steel producer in China because we know they are a proxy for the world steel market. They need the iron ore...whether it is $150...$180...or $100... Altius will do very very well.

 

Dazel.

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Any views on whether we will get a press release on Julienne lake soon?

 

http://www.nr.gov.nl.ca/nr/mines/Julienne/Julienne_EOI_Addendum1.pdf

 

The above states: "invitations to submit detailed proposals combined with terms of reference will be issued in January 2013". If Altius has been asked to submit a detailed proposal it would be interesting information for them to communicate to the market. Especially if they chose to disclose their partners. Is this likely at this stage?

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No idea when or how Julienne Lake will play out...it looks like the timing is right for Altius to make a bid as the sector is not loved right now. In fact, it is so unloved even famed "Bear" Marc Faber is calling mining stocks cheap. He is recomending Ukraine, Vietnam, China and Mining stocks. His interviews are always entertaining. He is uncannily right on the markets...I found him years ago as Prem Watsa of Fairfax mentioned him and his commentary.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/better-enjoy-market-rally-while-125151051.html

 

Dazel.

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Junior stocks like Alderon tend to be crazy volatile.  A lot of the time the volatility means nothing.  You usually want to buy the dips and sell the rallies.

 

Take Queenston Mining for example.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=qmi.to&ei=VaESUZnLDse1qgGeYQ

 

Traded as low as <$3.20, bought out at over $5 in the same year.

 

2- Altius is easing back on the share repurchases a little now that the share price shot up by about a quarter:

http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=als

 

 

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heibi date extended!

wonder whats the real reason?

 

I didn't think 15 business days were reasonable, especially close to Chinese New Year. 

 

The Chinese New Year in this year is Feb 10, but in Chinese tradition, it started one week early (lunar year 12/23,  02/03/2013),  and will end (Lantern Festival, lunar year 01/15  02/24/2013) . Hebei (North of the Yellow River) is a province in North China, and people there celebrate Chinese year in a very traditional way, please don't expect anybody will do the serious work during this period of time. 

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heibi date extended!

wonder whats the real reason?

 

I didn't think 15 business days were reasonable, especially close to Chinese New Year. 

 

The Chinese New Year in this year is Feb 10, but in Chinese tradition, it started one week early (lunar year 12/23,  02/03/2013),  and will end (Lantern Festival, lunar year 01/15  02/24/2013) . Hebei (North of the Yellow River) is a province in North China, and people there celebrate Chinese year in a very traditional way, please don't expect anybody will do the serious work during this period of time.

I am long AXX myself. 

 

However, I feel quite uneasy about this delay.  Chinese New Year holidays are a bit like American Christmas holidays. The official time off this year is Feb 9th-15th.  So it is like American Christmas-New Year in terms of length, roughly. 

 

Also, it is not like business people do not know which days Chinese New Year(CNY) fall in advance.  So to have this CNY coming up as a reason, in my mind, is a bit strange.  We all plan our milestones here taking into account of CNY.  Someone has to be quite incompetent to not to do so.

 

AXX/Hebei could have set it at March 15th in the first place if CNY is really the reason.

 

I guess either AXX do not have good staff that "understands" Hebei or Hebei is using CNY as an excuse to delay payment, which is a known tatics in this part of the world anyway.

 

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I deal with China every day and altough CNY is stated to to from the 10th to the 15th in China it's usually much longer. For example some contract manufacturer stopped production on feb 1st and are starting back around the 25th. Office workers are starting backon the 18th at the earliest. No real work can be performed. I expect an answer around the 25th. One thing that needs to be understood about CNY is that most people that live in the cities go back to their family in the country, this is their one time a year to see their family and they don't care about their job.

 

I'm not surprised one bit there is delays, the 15 days was probably negociated at the signing of the first contract. Nobody could know that Alderon would send the results just prior to CNY.

 

BeerBaron

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