Guest Dazel Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 It is also well known that Anglo American are very heavily involved in iron ore...It might be interesting if they talked about other partnerships in the Labrador trough or Alderon. Obvious speculation but it appears to be Anglo Americans first presence in Labrador. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-25/china-cuts-capacity-in-some-industries-to-reshape-economy.html China ordered more than 1,400 companies in 19 industries to cut excess production capacity this year, part of efforts to shift toward slower, more-sustainable economic growth. Steelmaking, ferroalloys, electrolytic aluminum, copper smelting, cement production and papermaking are among areas affected, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in a statement posted on its website yesterday. Excess capacity must be idled by September and eliminated by year-end, it said. Wonder how big an impact that will have. Could be nothing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 It'savaluetrap has a pine tree capital thread...he is astute as you can tell from his posts here. He brings up an interesting point that the debt of Pinetree is yielding 20%...we continue to think that this type of situation will be a big income stream for Altius. I am not saying they will buy their debt. However, I am saying that these opportunities are now out there for Altius. Hypothetically they could buy the distressed debt and force them into bankruptcy or sit on the huge yield and weight for a recovery.We think the current environment is a tremendous opportunity to get returns on the cash hoard...we think their return on invested capital will start to look more like Leucadia...years back...there is blood in the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 You can clearly see Cranberry Capital (Altius' subsidiary run by Paul van Eeden) investing more. There is definitely blood in the street, which is wonderful for Altius. Many juniors are running out of cash. If they don't have enough money to keep their exploration claims in good standing, they will lose them and another company can stake those claims. With the TSX Venture down two thirds, it will be difficult for juniors to raise capital. Some have been able to raise small amounts (a few hundred thousand) which is only enough to keep the lights on (pay inflated insider salaries, tens of thousands to the auditor, etc.). Very very few are putting cash towards exploration. Because Altius has a cash hoard, they will be able to capitalize... buying up claims, royalties, etc. There are probably some juniors trading below cash (with "decent" management teams)... it is likely that van Eeden is buying them. we think their return on invested capital will start to look more like Leucadia I think that Leucadia mostly got lucky with its investment in Fortescue. Iron ore prices have skyrocketed in the past decade. On top of that, Fortescue was able to put together an amazing portfolio of land. Fortescue doesn't just have a single mine... it has multiple mines on very large deposits with very low costs. And their returns have been fueled with an unsafe level of leverage (debt:equity over 2:1 ???). Debt:equity of 0.3:1 is more reasonable. I think Altius' future returns will be good, but not Fortescue good. Altius uses zero leverage, isn't ultra concentrated on one commodity, and it's unlikely that iron ore prices will go up 5X again. --- On another note, Hebei might be crazy. They may be overestimating the economics of the Kami project. I think that this is why Altius is not buying shares of Alderon, even though Hebei's investment implies a value a few times that of the current share price. Altius continues to buy back its own shares. (Management is phenomenal, the company is cheap, and they are buying back shares... isn't that what we all want?) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-25/china-cuts-capacity-in-some-industries-to-reshape-economy.html Thanks for the link! It, um, looks really bad for iron ore demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Trap, I am not referring to Altius looking like Leucadia for their Fortescue investment...I am looking at Altius buying buck s for 50 cents or less as they did with IRC....and I agree there are net nets out their with underlying assets worth something. Altius is asset based...one of their biggest assets is cash...Leucadia may have got lucky with their total return in Fortescue but they were hardly lucky. They invest simply Graham style. They got lucky in the fortune they made Inmet as well..you see a pattern? Cummings and Steinberg have stated in public they agree with Jim Rogers...their personal assets include gold and Farm Land... Altius is an expert in one of the only asset classes around that has blood in the streets. They could raise cash easily if there was something good enough out there. This is why they are holding cash tight. The have a lot of capital in Alderon...they will be looking elsewhere. Leucadia basically went into distressed industries and bought when no one else would...the difference is Dalton's team has 30 more years to go! I am not looking a Van Eden type investments either...I think they will make larger more strategic investments at the Altius level...for now the best investment is in their own shares which in doing so they are buying Alderon.. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-25/china-cuts-capacity-in-some-industries-to-reshape-economy.html Save yourself the time and do not read the article....7million tons of steel production will be wiped out! About the amount Kami will produce in their first phase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Keep in mind there are 460k employee stock options with a weighted average price at ~$6.5 expiring this year. I assume we are going to see all of them exercised as long as the price goes above $10.13. They are on track to buy back ~750k shares this year, though net shares will only be down 290k or about 1%. Not much of a buyback... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Yes but better than 99.5% of all companies.they are not diluting even in year where in the money options are abnormally high...we will be over 750k in shares if we remain this low in stock price. But I agree the opportunity is in deploying the cash for a bigger return...along with the other components of the company firing at he same time there is a tremendous opportunity and upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Uranium companies surge even as spot prices sink USEC (USU +40.2%) and uranium peers are surging again, but industry fundamentals tell a different story, TD Securities says, as Japan's restart process could be "a lot more protracted" than originally thought. In recent years, the uranium spot price (URA) found support whenever it fell to $40/lb. but prices have plunged 14% in two months to $34.50, lowest since 2006. URRE +30.6%, URZ +12.6%, but industry leader CCJ -3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 ALS CN: Agrees To Acquire Iron Horse Royalty 2013-07-30 12:30:32.228 GMT GOLD ROYALTIES CORP ("GRO-V") METALS CREEK RESOURCES CORP ("MEK-V") CALLINAN ROYALTIES CORP ("CAA-V") GOLDEN DORY RESOURCES CORP ("GDR-V") CENTURY IRON MINES CORP ("FER-T") ALTIUS MINERALS CORP ("ALS-T") - Gold Royalties Corp Agrees To Acquire Iron Horse Royalty Gold Royalties Corporation ("Gold Royalties") is pleased to announce that it has executed a definitive agreement dated July 29, 2013 to acquire a new royalty asset in Canada (the "Asset" or "Iron Horse Royalty"), represented by a 1.0% royalty interest on the mineral claims comprising the Iron Horse project located in Newfoundland's Labrador Trough (the "Transaction"). The Asset will be acquired from Metals Creek Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:MEK)("Metals Creek") for consideration of 1,333,333 common shares of Gold Royalties (the "Gold Royalties Shares") at a deemed price of $0.45 per Gold Royalties Share (the "Share Consideration"). The Iron Horse Royalty constitutes the 13th royalty interest now held by Gold Royalties in Canada. Closing of the Transaction, which is expected to occur on or before August 2nd 2013, is subject to approval by the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSXV"). "We are pleased to add the potential of this iron ore royalty to our portfolio and look forward to the ongoing exploration at the property, exploration which is funded in part by a financing provided by Callinan Royalties Corporation to the current operator of the Iron Horse project. Canada's world-class iron ore region has provided productive ground for other publicly traded royalty companies and we look forward to this gross royalty on iron sales being beneficial to the long-term value of our royalty business. I would also like to welcome Metals Creek as a shareholder who, by way of this all-stock acquisition, will hold approximately 6% of the issued equity of Gold Royalties," stated Ryan Kalt, President and Chief Executive Officer of Gold Royalties. In a sign of confidence in Gold Royalties, Metals Creek has agreed to a contractual escrow period whereby the Share Consideration will be subject to escrow with a 25% release every six (6) months from the date of closing of the Transaction. The announcement previously made by Gold Royalties on January 21, 2013 is superseded by this Transaction. About the Royalty Interest The Iron Horse Project Royalty - 1.0% NSR The Iron Horse Project (formerly Gabbro Lake) is an early-stage exploration project being advanced by Golden Dory Resources Corporation ("Golden Dory") and is located in Newfoundland's Labrador Trough. It is approximately 50km from the rail line servicing the Schefferville mining camp. The 1.0% net smelter return royalty covers the Iron Horse Project, which comprises approx. 10,000 hectares. The Iron Horse Project is host to a new iron ore discovery from which a drill intercept of 309 meters @ 28.6% Fe was reported by Golden Dory in a news release dated October 10, 2012. The Iron Horse Project is contiguous to mining claims held by Altius Minerals Inc. and Century Iron Mines Corporation. The 1.0% net smelter return royalty exempts iron ore from any permissible deductions otherwise associated with other metals and minerals which may be discovered on the Iron Horse Project. The result of this exemption causes the net smelter return royalty to equate to a gross sale royalty with respect to any commercial production of iron ore which may occur from the Iron Horse Project. On November 8, 2012, Golden Dory announced that Callinan Royalties Corporation ("Callinan Royalties") would invest $1,000,000 in Golden Dory through a private placement and, concurrent with the closing of that financing, Callinan Royalties would acquire two royalty options from Golden Dory on the Iron Horse Project. Under the first royalty option, exercisable at any time up to 180 days following 180 days of continuous commercial production, Callinan Royalties may acquire a 1.0% royalty on the Iron Horse Project on the payment by Callinan Royalties to Golden Dory of $1,000,000. Under the second royalty option, Callinan Royalties may acquire up to an additional 1.1% royalty (with a minimum 0.5% royalty) by paying Golden Dory the net present value for that additional royalty, the value of which is to be determined by an independent third party based on a bankable feasibility study used for mine construction on the Iron Horse Project. Additional information on the Iron Horse Project may be found by way of Golden Dory Resources Corporation's website and by way of the Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Natural Resources website, both of which Gold Royalties encourages interested parties to review. http://www.goldendoryresources.com/uploads/file/GDR_February%202013.pdf http://www.nr.gov.nl.ca/nr/mines/investments/Asia/NL%20Iron%20Ore%20-%20Wor ld%20Class%20Resources%202012.pdf About Gold Royalties Corporation Gold Royalties Corporation is a publicly traded, growth-orientated royalty business that acquires and holds mining royalty assets for investment purposes. The company acquires net smelter return and metal stream royalties, with a focus on gold royalties, located in stable jurisdictions. For more information, please visit www.GoldRoyalties.ca. Forward-Looking Statements This news release contains certain forward-looking information and statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words "expect", "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "objective", "ongoing", "may", "will", "project", "should", "believe", "plans", "intends", "confident", "might" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information or statements. The forward-looking information and statements included in this news release are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied upon. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated and described in the forward-looking statements. The forward-looking information and statements contained in this news release speak only as of the date of this news release, and the company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise such information or statements to reflect new events or circumstances, except as may be required pursuant to applicable securities laws. Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 Info taken from paladins web page regarding Michelin, Canada (updated july 2013): "Over the next three to five years, Paladin is planning to carry out continuous exploration within the CMB to expand known resources sufficiently to develop a significant mining operation." "The FY2013 exploration budget at Aurora is approximately $C8 million." They seem to be entusiastic about this project. 8 million is quite a lot actually. I think Denison has like 12 million in exploration budget for all their projects in Canada for 2013. So in 2018-2020 we will very likely have the project up an running giving an additional royalty for Altius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 The new joint venture with Anglo American should give Altius a value of 7 million (exploration expenses- book value) over a 5 year period. (20,650 Million*0,34). At least...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 8 million is quite a lot actually. It'll probably take a lot more. It's mineral exploration, so they probably won't find anything. If they do find something, they will have to spend additional money on expansion and infill drilling. If the extra deposit(s) aren't big enough, then it's a no go. If they do find an economic body of ore, then they will have to spend additional money on building a mine (and all of the engineering expenses relating to the new deposit). On the other hand, the exploration activity is good for Altius. Because Altius owns the royalty, they see the benefits of exploration and mine building but Altius doesn't have to put up any of the capital. If uranium prices skyrocket for some reason then they might build a mine for the ore that they have (they wouldn't need to find more ore to make a mine economic). The new joint venture with Anglo American should give Altius a value of 7 million (exploration expenses- book value) over a 5 year period. (20,650 Million*0,34). It may be worth less because it's an option. Anglo doesn't have to commit the full $20M / $20.650M. If their exploration doesn't find much (and it probably won't, because that's the nature of mineral exploration) then they will have only committed a few/several million. So maybe it would look something like this: 95% of the time they spend $5M and find nothing. 5% of the time they spend $5M and find something. They spend another $15M advancing the project. On average they put $5.75M into the project. Altius will end up with 34% of the project plus a 1% royalty. Let's just assume that it's equivalent to 40% of the project. So $5.75M * 0.40% = $2.3M. In practice, there is a very wide range of valuations that might seem reasonable for the property. Don't take my assumptions too seriously. Land is very, very difficult to value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Yes of course you could be right about the option and all that. It is however good that they struck a deal on this property. Hopefully they find something of value. The REALLY interesting things coming in second half of 2013 are: Jullienne lake decision Final approval of Environmental documents for Alderon thus leading to construction start. I have noticed that Alderon has come back abit lately. Valued 1,11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Some thoughts on how the Chinese think: Wuhan Iron and Steel (Group) Corp, China's fourth-largest steelmaker by output, said it will boost investment in overseas iron ore mines and plans to achieve 100 percent iron ore self-sufficiency in three to five years. Wisco, the parent company of Shanghai-listed Wuhan Iron and Steel, wants to abandon its heavy reliance on imported iron ore, which is sold at high prices by the top-three iron ore producers: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. Wisco said in a statement the group will "secure part of iron ore resources in Canada and Brazil to achieve self-sufficiency".Deng Qilin, general manager of Wisco, was quoted as saying by China Metallurgical News on Monday, "We won't buy a single ton of iron ore from traders after three years at the earliest, and five years at the latest." But Sun Jing, director of Wuhan Iron and Steel's communication department, said that "within three to five years" is just an expression, which means the company will not buy iron ore if prices are too high, National Business Daily reported. "We will have to buy iron ore at $150 per ton forever if we do not own iron ore resources, and the iron ore giants can raise prices at any time," said Sun, adding that equity acquisition of overseas iron ore resources will strengthen the company's voice in iron ore pricing negotiations. Data provided by Wang Guoqing, a senior analyst at the Beijing Lange Steel Information Research Center, showed that in December prices of imported iron ore rose more than 21 percent month-on-month, and the rally continued in January. During the same period, steel-product prices only rose 2.5 percent on average, eroding domestic steelmakers' profits, the data show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 http://www.economist.com/news/business/21580458-worlds-overcapacity-steelmaking-getting-worse-and-profits-are-evaporating-inferno Overview of steel industry. Note, article is a month old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 More money being spent by other companies to potentially create a royalty for Altius: http://www.infomine.com/index/pr/PB341159.PDF From the Millrock website: "Millrock owns a 100% interest in the Stellar property, subject to a 2% NSR royalty for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium, a 2% royalty of Gross Uranium Final Sales and a 1% NSR royalty for all other minerals payable to Altius Minerals Corp." VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Aug. 6, 2013) - Millrock Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:MRO) ("Millrock" or "the Company") announces that it has entered into a Letter Agreement with a major international mining company - one of the world's leading copper producers - ("the Miner") whereby the Company will grant a right of first refusal ("ROFR") to the Miner to enter into an Option and Joint Venture Agreement concerning the Stellar Project, Alaska. In consideration of the ROFR, the Miner will fund an initial exploration program estimated to cost US$200,000. The program will consist of regional geochemical sampling, geological mapping and prospecting, which will be carried out in August 2013 by Millrock. Subject to exercise of the ROFR by October 31, 2013, the Miner will have an option to earn up to an 80% joint venture interest in the property through a two-stage option agreement. The Stellar project is located in central Alaska 13 km north of the Denali Highway and 68 km west of the town of Paxson. The property, which Millrock acquired by staking in 2012, covers the Zackly copper-gold skarn deposit. Surrounding lands are considered prospective for porphyry copper-gold deposits, or other types of copper deposits and intrusion-related gold deposits. Millrock owns a 100% interest in the claims subject to a royalty payable to Altius Minerals Ltd. The technical information within this document has been reviewed and approved by Gregory A. Beischer, President & CEO of Millrock. Mr. Beischer is a Qualified Person as defined in NI 43-101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 More money being spent by other companies to potentially create a royalty for Altius: http://www.infomine.com/index/pr/PB341159.PDF From the Millrock website: "Millrock owns a 100% interest in the Stellar property, subject to a 2% NSR royalty for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium, a 2% royalty of Gross Uranium Final Sales and a 1% NSR royalty for all other minerals payable to Altius Minerals Corp." VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Aug. 6, 2013) - Millrock Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:MRO) ("Millrock" or "the Company") announces that it has entered into a Letter Agreement with a major international mining company - one of the world's leading copper producers - ("the Miner") whereby the Company will grant a right of first refusal ("ROFR") to the Miner to enter into an Option and Joint Venture Agreement concerning the Stellar Project, Alaska. In consideration of the ROFR, the Miner will fund an initial exploration program estimated to cost US$200,000. The program will consist of regional geochemical sampling, geological mapping and prospecting, which will be carried out in August 2013 by Millrock. Subject to exercise of the ROFR by October 31, 2013, the Miner will have an option to earn up to an 80% joint venture interest in the property through a two-stage option agreement. The Stellar project is located in central Alaska 13 km north of the Denali Highway and 68 km west of the town of Paxson. The property, which Millrock acquired by staking in 2012, covers the Zackly copper-gold skarn deposit. Surrounding lands are considered prospective for porphyry copper-gold deposits, or other types of copper deposits and intrusion-related gold deposits. Millrock owns a 100% interest in the claims subject to a royalty payable to Altius Minerals Ltd. The technical information within this document has been reviewed and approved by Gregory A. Beischer, President & CEO of Millrock. Mr. Beischer is a Qualified Person as defined in NI 43-101. Great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 For a little history....Altius bought a big chunk of Millrock during the downturn...for a million plus other property incentives including this one which was converted from a property partnership to a royalty...the stock went up 3 or 4 fold and Altius sold out a big chunk... It is likely that cost to Altius is less than 0 meaning they made enough profit on the share sales to profit from the original $1m purchase price. These are the type of deals that are back in play for Altius...they were smart enough to back off when everyone else was borrowing money and diluting shareholders...and now you will likely see them pick up some assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 http://metalexpertresearch.com/research/en/global_iron_ore_price_forecast_(july_2013).html?OpenDocument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 http://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3241073/Iron-ore-and-coking-coal/Spot-635-Fe-iron-ore-prices-rise-to-135-136-per-tonne-cfr.html This is not what the public perception is...It looks Hebei is right about $140 for the second half of the year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Thanks for the updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 and they keep buying back shares. 50,400 shares july 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 hehe, where can I find a detailed list of their assets ? The most recent annual report on their website is 2010 , pretty old... Do they still have a lot of land rights ? Everything under $10 should be a steal. Assume 28 million shares Securities and money - 157 million/28 = 5,60 Alderon shares - 33 million/28 = 1,17 Voisay bay - 60 million (3 million for 20 years)/28 = 2,14 Century iron - 0,9 million/28=0,03 Mining and other investments = 35 million/28 = 1,25 Total = 10,19 So a lot would then be for "free". Very interesting in a near future: Jullienne Lake Interesting: New partner for Paladin in Canada? Chinese interested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Look on SEDAR http://www.sedar.com/homepage_en.htm Read the MD&A, financial statements DEF 14A = management circular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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