Guest Dazel Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 http://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-hits-3-month-high-78308/ This is what I have been saying...it is the decline mining of iron ore in china and the depletion of mines that are not being considered when looking at the iron ore price. It makes sense for china to import iron ore they just don't want to pay "too" much. Alderon fits their strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ALS Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nostradamus Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Any thoughts from the board on what the Mamba merger with Champion Iron Mines means for Altius? http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=mab&timeframe=Y&year=2013 The release mentions something about them having negotiated a delay in the Snelgrove option. So my assumption would be that the merger is positive for the altius equity stake but negative for any expected royalty, but have not thought it through yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Agreed...upside in equity opportunity...we like micheal O'keefe getting more involved in the trough...the royalty will be delayed for snelgrove. This is an interesting piece on iron ore pricing and his top pick is Champion...hopefully we can make some equity money for Altius on their shares. http://resourceinvestingnews.com/64149-mark-lackey-bullish-on-china-iron-ore-price.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yes Snelgrove royalty probably 10 years into the future now but Altius will end up with approx 10 % of equity(??! Have not calculated it). But the exercise of the options or 10 % is before 2017 ,if Mamba/Champion spends some 6.5 million and decides to keep Snelgrove. From what I understand they have already spent almost the whole value and I believe we will see the equity become a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 New on their fact sheet under investors •2,658,449 shares (~8%) of Virginia Gold Mines (VGQ:TSX)(http://www.virginia.qc.ca), 2,901,000 shares (~6%) of Callinan Royalties Corp.(http://www.callinan.com), 5 million shares of Century Iron Mines (FER:TSX)(http://www.centuryiron.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/newfoundland-premier-announces-finalized-federal-loan-for-muskrat-falls/article15854740/#dashboard/follows/ This guarantees cheap power for Altius projects...the international community will look very favourably at this certainty now...Alderon does not need the power for the first 8 mta of production...but this financing will put in motion the transmission upgrade to Labrador west that is needed as discussed earlier. Altius did in fact add to their Alderon holdings at $1.15...584,000 shares...in June. Disclosure: I bought Alderon shares on the latest pull back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naboo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Sorry, I didn't follow Mamba closely, but did Mamba ever reach 6.5M threshold? Last time I read, that was only 3M. If it did, how many MAB shares does ALS have? Thanks. Any thoughts from the board on what the Mamba merger with Champion Iron Mines means for Altius? http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=mab&timeframe=Y&year=2013 The release mentions something about them having negotiated a delay in the Snelgrove option. So my assumption would be that the merger is positive for the altius equity stake but negative for any expected royalty, but have not thought it through yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Altius did in fact add to their Alderon holdings at $1.15...584,000 shares...in June. Where does it say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Sedi Alderon's insider transactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 In rereading it looks like they bought it off their own investment company with Cranberry...so the transaction does not mean much...nor is substantial in size. Not sure how it was structured either. So take it for what it is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Naboo, We will have to wait to see how they structured the extent ion of the project timeline...it is likely that there is discussion to how Altius takes equity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any views / key points on Altius report? New signs, hints etc re Alderon or Julienne? I am not seeing any...(but that doesn't mean much!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 No news from Alderon is kind of bad news. If they had positive developments regarding mine financing, they would be issuing press releases about it. 2- Has anybody noticed that Alderon is advertising on Google for any keyword with the word Alderon in it? Their ad is: "Solid Fundamentals For Success. Iron Ore Demand Rising. Invest Now" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just a few quotes from the new MD&A On aquisition of new royalties: "The Corporation has been increasingly active in evaluating direct mineral royalty purchases that meet these criteria and is currently in advanced acquisition discussions but can offer no assurances that these will result in a transaction." pg.5 On Julienne Lake: "The Corporation met with government officials several times during the current quarter to discuss its proposal. The Corporation can provide no assurance that its proposal will be accepted." pg.6 On buy-back: "The Corporation repurchased 435,000 common shares under its normal course issuer bid during the current six months at a total cost of $4,613,000 (2012 – 418,164 shares at a total cost of $4,539,000)." pg. 13 On shares outstanding: "At December 11, 2013, the Corporation had 27,619,820 common shares outstanding and 291,500 stock options outstanding." pg. 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 What will be the pps be if there is no insider buying. How come the market continue to miss this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I am really hoping for an aquisition of Callinan. That would bring in approx. 16 million a year for 8 years at least. The market would then see a cash flow positive company which is good. The Julliene lake is moving on. Nothing new really. We knew negotioations were ongoing. Alderon news have to wait until January. Then things will take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohi Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Blue, do you know who the biggest shareholders of Callinan are? If they don't do some big block trades I can't see how they could buy them out without a big premium. The asset is really high quality though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Trap, Consolidated Thompson announced financing at the same time as the environmental approval...this is likely the case at Alderon. You work out a deal and the condition is on approval of environmental...so as soon as the approval is in the deal is done....they are waiting on approval... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Here is timeline of what we think will happen for Altius: Alderon Approval of environmental go ahead...financing condition satisfied...off take deal done...shares take off... Final power deal done...shares go higher Convertible debt deal done...shares higher again... Final debt deal done...shares higher again. Altius share price will move with these deals. Julienne Lake Deal won by Altius... Cash hoard Altius will then become the bigger hunter of the industry with these deals done...they will buy distress debt and royalties and make use of the cash on the balance sheet. Alderon equity will be worth much more as well. Dividends will start at Altius and the cashflow will begin coming in 2014 from other royalties...and set up for the big cashflow in the coming years. We are looking forward to our first dividend payment! It will be a great year for Altius...the market will reward what they have built. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Here is timeline of what we think will happen for Altius: Alderon Approval of environmental go ahead...financing condition satisfied...off take deal done...shares take off... Final power deal done...shares go higher Convertible debt deal done...shares higher again... Final debt deal done...shares higher again. Altius share price will move with these deals. Julienne Lake Deal won by Altius... Cash hoard Altius will then become the bigger hunter of the industry with these deals done...they will buy distress debt and royalties and make use of the cash on the balance sheet. Alderon equity will be worth much more as well. Dividends will start at Altius and the cashflow will begin coming in 2014 from other royalties...and set up for the big cashflow in the coming years. We are looking forward to our first dividend payment! It will be a great year for Altius...the market will reward what they have built. Dazel. i hope it for us dazel :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Dazel - How about worst case scenario as you see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FFHWatcher Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Here is timeline of what we think will happen for Altius: Alderon Approval of environmental go ahead...financing condition satisfied...off take deal done...shares take off... Final power deal done...shares go higher Convertible debt deal done...shares higher again... Final debt deal done...shares higher again. Altius share price will move with these deals. Julienne Lake Deal won by Altius... Cash hoard Altius will then become the bigger hunter of the industry with these deals done...they will buy distress debt and royalties and make use of the cash on the balance sheet. Alderon equity will be worth much more as well. Dividends will start at Altius and the cashflow will begin coming in 2014 from other royalties...and set up for the big cashflow in the coming years. We are looking forward to our first dividend payment! It will be a great year for Altius...the market will reward what they have built. Dazel. Not to nit pick, but the only thing you didn't give us...was a timeline :-) P.S. Appreciate all your insight here. Predicting the future is difficult...adding a timeline is near impossible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 You remember the Altius article "bring on the blood bath! Alluding to a bring down of the commodity equity market from Altius management? We are naturally hedged with our cash hoard...Alderon shares would be hit hard with worst case scenario...as would other holdings...if it were to happen they likely take a run at Virginia, Callinan and other beat up royalties...at lower prices. Alderon has infrastructure around it so it will always have value and They have cash...Companies that are relying on infrastructure have been hammered and there will not be much built for years... Bear markets set up bull markets as we know...we are in a brutal cycle...supply that was supposed to come on stream will not because there is no capital for large infrastructure (ports, rail and power). Alderon has all three....it's a massive resource in one place around infrastructure. When you look at other miners you will see they have a number of different mines in different locations...these are huge cost and shorter life assets...financing for these will be tough without proper infrastructure... Commodity supply across the board has and will be cut...which obviously raises prices down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ffh Watcher, Alderon timeline-soon. It is however not our preferred timeline....As Altius shareholders we would like to see Alderon get taken out by a major...this can happen anytime after the approval for the mine goes through (note: the environmental is for 16 million tonnes per year not 8 million) Alderon are "in play at that point". Altius shares would double over night on the stability and the pricing of the royalty by the market. (See virginia mines Goldcorp take over of Eloenore.) the Kami royalty is bigger than Virginia's and it has the potential to be a lot bigger. We just had over 10 majors in the trough looking at Carol lake...hopefully they stopped by Kami for a look...they were ready to spend billions. We like that upside... Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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