ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[Guest Dazel]

 

 

Sorry the last post stated "as Altius shareholders"...

 

Disclosure: I own Alderon shares as posted here recently.

 

Dazel.

[Guest Dazel]

 

 

Altius' Voisey bay royalty is on the balance sheet at $8,162,000...and The Kami royalty is not there...valued at 0.

 

To put this in perspective...RoyalGold gets 50 times PE on it's royalties and Voisey Bay is among their largest....

 

 

[Guest Dazel]

http://www.energy-business-review.com/news/rio-tinto-shortlists-bidders-for-4bn-canadian-iron-ore-assets-040613

 

 

I was wrong Rio received 13-15 Bids for its stake in the Carol lake property down the road from Kami.

 

If I was running Alderon and or Altius....I would have approached every one of those bidders either directly or through their respective investment bankers.

 

I would also be looking at the best possible option at both companies once the mine gets the federal go ahead....my timeline that I provided is along the same lines Consolidated Thompson approached their financing. They did their financing in a terrible environment and were forced this way.

 

It is possible that once the environmental and power deals are done...the company could be auctioned off to the highest bidder...Thompson Consolidated did this after they completed the mine which resulted in the $5 billion take over. Alderon ain't getting that in this environment! However, it may be the best route for the company. This would be extremely positive for Altius more so than if Alderon went the Thompson consolidated route...as I have stated repeatedly, the Altius royalty dwarfs the Alderon equity return even if Alderon becomes a 3 or 4 bagger.

[Blue Macaw]

Dazel

 

I have been going back and forth regarding the value of Voisey bay. Let´s say that we are looking for some 20 years of production and we believe 3 million is the revenue from this per year we would see a max pay out of 60 million. (todays value) As an investor I would be looking for some return of maybe 8 % per year discarding the infaltion which means that the current valuation of 8 million in Altius balance sheet is low but not by a tremendous amount.

[Guest Dazel]

 

 

Blue,

 

Yes. I agree....however, when it is combined with multiple  royalty streams...it brings Altius the royalty premium that companies like Royal Gold get on the "same asset".

Altius' goal of becoming the lowest cost royalty company in the world will get a larger premium because they do not add risk like other high cost companies in the space Sandstorm, Royal Gold Silver wheaten etc....

These companies are paying large dollars for their streams....the Voisy Bay royalty's cost on the balance sheet combined with Kami together have a combined cost of $8.162 million. So alone Voisey bay is not a big deal however, if Altius can pull off their plan than it will become one of royalties great royalties  that Altius has acquired cheaply with "low" risk...this separates them in the industry...

When Altius gets multiple like the rest of the royalty world Voisey will be a very valuable piece. Right now it pays the For the lights.

 

Dazel.

[leftcoast]

Apologies if this was posted earlier, but I just read through this entire thread and don't recall seeing it.

 

http://www.atlanticbusinessmagazine.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NRv15n3_cover.jpg

 

Attached is a cover story about Altius in Natural Resources in Atlantic Canada magazine, published Oct. 23. No new information in the article for followers of this thread.

NRv15n3_briandalton.pdf

[phil_Buffett]

Apologies if this was posted earlier, but I just read through this entire thread and don't recall seeing it.

 

http://www.atlanticbusinessmagazine.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NRv15n3_cover.jpg

 

Attached is a cover story about Altius in Natural Resources in Atlantic Canada magazine, published Oct. 23. No new information in the article for followers of this thread.

 

 

thank you leftcoast  :)

[Guest Dazel]

 

 

I find it interesting if nothing else that 45% of the shares traded OTC on the pink sheets yesterday were naked short trades...we noticed from the pre open that the bid and ask was being lowered. Just curious...will look more into it.

[phil_Buffett]

 

 

I find it interesting if nothing else that 45% of the shares traded OTC on the pink sheets yesterday were naked short trades...we noticed from the pre open that the bid and ask was being lowered. Just curious...will look more into it.

 

so a lot of short Shares? why they shorting altius? make no sense for me

[Guest Dazel]

 

 

No Phil,

 

Just interesting...we know a lot of funny things happen this time of year...bids are being played with..as they always are..market makers etc...just thought it was curious thats all...helps Altius as we got to buy back shares cheaper yesterday...especially when there is not a lot of liquidity.

I am obviously bored!!!!

 

 

Dazel.

[phil_Buffett]

 

 

No Phil,

 

Just interesting...we know a lot of funny things happen this time of year...bids are being played with..as they always are..market makers etc...just thought it was curious thats all...helps Altius as we got to buy back shares cheaper yesterday...especially when there is not a lot of liquidity.

I am obviously bored!!!!

 

 

Dazel.

 

ok dazel  :D. yeah buyback is nice  :)

 

lot of good stuff will happen to us the next years with altius  :)

[Guest Dazel]

 

http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&id=41680&latest=1

 

Alderon and Altius got some negative press from an article wrote yesterday...and I see that it has been spun negatively in few places...not mention the stock action yesterday.

 

Did they miss the first couple of lines...."we have a billion dollar financing deal lined up"!!!!!!!!!

 

 

[Guest Dazel]

 

 

http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&id=41725&latest=1

 

Here is the follow up from the Premier.

 

"I expect the Kami to get full green light early in the New Year"....Alderon is meeting with the Natural resources department today.

 

And

 

I fully support the new transmission line to Labrador west...

 

Sounds like a great January...and nice to hear the support from the Premier....I can wait a few more weeks.

 

Dazel.

 

 

[phil_Buffett]

 

 

http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&id=41725&latest=1

 

Here is the follow up from the Premier.

 

"I expect the Kami to get full green light early in the New Year"....Alderon is meeting with the Natural resources department today.

 

And

 

I fully support the new transmission line to Labrador west...

 

Sounds like a great January...and nice to hear the support from the Premier....I can wait a few more weeks.

 

Dazel.

 

 

 

that would be definitely very nice  :)

[Guest Dazel]

http://www.theaurora.ca/News/Local/2013-12-12/article-3540738/Council-supports-new-transmission-line-to-Labrador-West/1

 

Labrador city is in strong support of the new transmission line...from Churchill Falls. Alderon does not need power from Muskrat Falls from the first 8 million tonnes...Julienne Lake needs it.

 

How do you auction off Julienne Lake without a transmission line to bring power...you don't. Expect an announcement soon on both the transmission line and hopefully a an Altius bid win for Julienne Lake. As I said fingers crossed.

 

[leftcoast]

In reading the investor presentations on Altius's website, I noticed that their Kami royalty projections were quite different between the Resource Investor's Forum on Sept. 17 and the AGM presentation on Sept. 19.  The former shows Kami royalty revenue growing to ~$55M by 2017, but the latter shows it hitting $50M by year 2019.  What's odd to me is that these presentations were delivered just 2 days apart, so it's not like the forecast itself or the underlying assumptions would have changed. Why give different projections to different audiences?

 

See attached... both charts were taken directly from the presentations referenced above.

[Guest Dazel]

 

 

The september 17th presentation is from the other presentations during 2013....Altius likely decided to cut back expectations and assumptions.

 

$22 stock on the 19th assumption chart and $40 stock on the 17th chart assumptions....either way I will take it.

 

 

[hohi]

Also if remember correctly one presentation was given by Chad Wells and the other by Brian Dalton. They should talk to each other and use the same numbers though.

But as Dazel said, I don't mind if it's just a 100% move from here...

[Guest Dazel]

 

Actually, to be honest I would like to see other royalties in that graph for 2014 and 2015 and beyond. They could use portions of the virginia royalty and Callinan percentages but in this environment I would be disappointed if they were not looking at other accretive value propositions for immediate or near term royalties....this would include distressed debt situations being structured into equity- interest payments. Virginia will start dividends this year and Callinan pays a 5% yield.

 

 

[MrB]

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[phil_Buffett]

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i assume it is because of this http://www.cbncompass.ca/News/Local/2013-12-19/article-3550009/Power-line-needed-now-for-Lab-West-industry,-say-mayors/1

[Guest Dazel]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alderon-provides-power-environmental-assessment-110000632.html

 

 

Quite a roller coaster day yesterday at Alderon.

 

[phil_Buffett]

dazel would be interesting to hear your view on this power line issue  :)

 

btw i bought yesterday my first stake in alderon and also added more altius

[Guest Dazel]

 

Phil,

 

Not an issue at all...we have been following Nalcor, Dunderdale, and more importantly Muskrat Falls. "all" of the government and Nalcor's attention was on Muskrat falls $7.7 billion

development. The deal for the federal loan guarantee was only signed on December 11th. While this was expected after Emera and Nova Scotia agreed to link (happened in November) that solidified the federal loan deal. Muskrat is huge deal...for the province and for Labrador west.

 

Nalcor in our opinion had to wait for this deal to close before building the link from Churchill falls. The link costs $300 million to build and they could not start it until they were assured they would have power from Muskrat falls...makes sense right. Alderon deos not need power from Muskrat falls "yet"...the power link will have enough power from Churchill falls for 8 million tonnes a year from Alderon...they will need it for the next expansion.

 

To be clear Bloom lake, Carol lake, Alderon, and Julienne lake cannot do anything without this link. It is not just about Alderon as Dunderdale alluded to. It will be built quickly now that Muskrat falls has been financed.

 

It is a win win for Newfoundland and the companies mentioned....including Altius of course. They have a lot more power coming on stream and these companies will be paying for it.

 

We would rather Altius and Brian Dalton were dealing with everyone involved but that is not practical of course...not mentioning names but we think a couple of idiot comments were made by someone at Alderon that confused people. All will be very clear in January...

 

and those that picked shares up on the roller coaster ride will do very well.

 

 

[Guest Dazel]

 

 

I would add this...the market prices risk...even though we were confident that muskrat falls would be built and the power would be there...the market

was skeptical as it should be (international money want to see 3 things, power, ports and rail...when the link is built it is the last piece of the package. Labrador

west needs cheap power and now they will get it with the link. We will see much more interest when the begins to be built...which everyone agrees will happen.

 

Julienne lake cannot go ahead without it...and it is the province that is selling it...so all of these properties should go up in value exponentially when the power issue

is fully derisked.