cwericb Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Thanks Dazel. Anyone can start a blog, I was just wondering if he had any legitimacy. What about stories I have read about not enough power being available, that nearly all the available power had been spoken for? Also I wonder if the delay may be because they are working with several parties, which always complicates things, and that they are trying to work out how much the various players will contribute towards the line so that the deal looks more palatable for the tax payer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 You are correct the power in Labrador west is all used up...that's why they need the third transmission line. There is enough power left at Churchill Falls for Alderon's first 8mta of production...Muskrat falls comes on in 2017....and then there will be enough power for everyone...the transmission line will be built for sure... The tax payer end is a fools game as the $300m is peanuts for what Kami would produce in economic impact alone...If the government were to botch this deal...they would be run out of the province. Especially when the private sector have offered financing...every level of government even the opposition party and the chamber of commerce want this transmission line approved "now". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Thanks, that's pretty much my thinking as well, but its nice to have reassurance. When it comes to the taxpayer's money, its all about optics. The government just wants to be able to convince the taxpayer and critics that this is a good deal for them and I have to think that there are reasons for this delay, especially when they said an announcement was coming within a week or so and then it didn't come. A change in premiers may have had something to do with that. But in the end, how could they say no when the timeline for the future development of the whole area depends on power and the power is/will be available? The other aspect of this is that $300 million is not a big deal to Newfoundland today - several years ago perhaps, but not today. The whole province is booming and is starting to look like Alberta 10 or 15 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Someone on the Stockhouse board quoted Premier Tom Marshall as saying on NTV yesterday: " I mean, I think I can say safely that there will be power available in that commununity to support future economic development to meet the needs of electricity. But at this time I can't go into particulars and the reason for that will become evident shortly." Last half of the statement is interesting. PS Another thing that I did not realize is that Marshall has been Minister of Natural Resources until his appointment to Premier last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Someone on the Stockhouse board quoted Premier Tom Marshall as saying on NTV yesterday: " I mean, I think I can say safely that there will be power available in that commununity to support future economic development to meet the needs of electricity. But at this time I can't go into particulars and the reason for that will become evident shortly." Last half of the statement is interesting. PS Another thing that I did not realize is that Marshall has been Minister of Natural Resources until his appointment to Premier last month. here the Video from the Statement. at 17:30 in this Clip http://ntv.ca/ntv-evening-news-16/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I was spurred to read up a bit on the power line issues by confusion from a certain CEO’s diatribe I (hmmm?), A certain company’s PR response (please pardon Ruprecht, he likes to bang on his pots…but he has a point), same certain CEO’s diatribe II (what’s with the pots again--I thought everything was good?), and Dalley’s delayed response. Fortunately, I was also spurred to pick up some El Dorado 15 year rum—highly recommended—which has taken the edge off. Any large hydro-electric project will have opposition who will seek to torpedo the project by any means necessary, even employing a sunken U-boat. My limited understanding is that Cabana of Rock Solid Politics blog contends that terms of CFLCo and Hydro Quebec’s Power Contract of 1969 render ineffectual the Water Management Agreement between CFLCo and Nalcor regarding Muskrat Falls. HQ seeks, in its existing court application filed mid-2013, declarations that this 1969 contract gives HQ exclusive right to purchase power produced from Churchill Falls with a couple of exceptions and that CFLCo does not have the right to sell power from Churchill Falls plant to third parties, again, with the same exceptions. In Cabana’s view as I understand it, building Muskrat Falls with a Water Management Agreement that could be invalidated is an expensive boondoggle for Newfoundland/Labrador. In essence, if HQ prevails in court, CFLCo will have sold power it didn’t have the right to sell. Even new power from Muskrat Falls as that power is routed through Churchill Falls and is, thus, a modification to that facility under terms of the Power Contract of 1969. I’m in no position to offer an opinion on the legal validity of this argument. But I did want to point out for Eric’s sake there is an argument out there—regardless of your opinion about the legal strength—that Muskrat Falls may not have the power to deliver to Lab West not be/c of inadequate capacity/transmission but because HQ has a claim on it. He may have read an article or blog post stating something to that effect. Dazel’s and SD’s take that the delay is a function of the involvement of many parties hammering out final details strikes me as very plausible and the most likely explanation. But I did want to look at alternate explanations for the pot banging and delays. Thanks for forwarding the Marshall quote. Another data point. Now, where’s that El Dorado? 406 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thanks for that 406. There is a lot of history between Hydro Quebec and Newfoundland power and most of it is quite unpleasant. HQ has seemed very inflexible in the past. Lets hope things are being worked out now away from the courtroom and to the benefit of all concerned. Enjoy the El Dorado :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Further to what 406 wrote, google "Hydro Quebec Muskrat Falls". Read the top links to understand the issues. It's a nasty fight. https://www.google.ca/search?q=Hydro+Quebec+Muskrat+Falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value-is-what-you-get Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah NL signed a.lousy deal with Quebec and has been paying for it ever since. I looked into the Muskrat Falls story and found that there is going to be an underwater maratime link through Nova Scotia to Massachusetts somewhere essentially bypassing the agreeent with Quebec. I think the political will for NL to get this done is there, better late than never. As far as aggravating QC by undercutting their marked up NL hydro being sold into the same US market, well thats going to add some grief to the Churchill Falls situation I would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The main issue, as I understand it, is water management. Churchill Falls has to run a certain way for the Muskrat Falls to work. The water management changes affect the pattern of power delivery to HQ. Hydro-Quebec challenge could endanger Muskrat Falls project http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1143721-hydro-quebec-challenge-could-endanger-muskrat-falls-project As a former minister of natural resources, Tom Marshall is very familiar with these issues. He said an announcement will be made fairly soon. I wonder if NL is close to a settlement with HQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Keep in mind that it is Canada, the Fed has control over resources (o/g, ore, power, etc.) crossing provincial borders, & they can change rules anytime they wish (it is ...their sandbox); it is also a PC government, & Newfoundland has Hibernia. Squabbling is nothing unusual, but business sense usually prevails. The fed is also not above clubbing participants. There are few votes in Quebec, there is existing precedent for doing deals without Quebec approval (Meech Lake), & today - it is just a construction project (that Newfoundland can now afford on its own) to divert ALL power off of Hydro Quebec power lines. The stubborn do not have to be conscious. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For those that are unfamiliar...Quebec owns a large portion Labrador...Bloom Lake is on the Quebec side Kami is not....that is how close Kami is to the border... It is in Quebec's best interest for the power line to go through...they collect royalties on the mining operations in their province...and all of the major iron ore producers are on the Quebec side of Labrador. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-10/hudbay-minerals-to-make-takeover-offer-for-augusta-resource.html?cmpid=yhoo It appears that the deals in the sector are continuing to excelerate...from the deep freeze of the last two years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-gold-demand-surges-tops-061152207.html China's reserves are now $3.82 trillion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2014-02-11/article-3610452/Williams-says-Labrador-transmission-line-%26lsquo%3Ba-no-brainer%26rsquo%3B/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Could this be the situation with Alderon? The Government of NFLD is waiting for Cliffs to make a decision on their Wabush operation. Shareholders have ordered Cliffs to cut expenses and streamline operations. That could involve closing Wabush. The union agreement for the mine expires in a couple of weeks and Cliffs has not signed a new agreement. Labrador officials, after meeting with Cliffs last week commented “there wasn't much talk about the future at the meeting.” That sounds pretty negative. However, if they are in negotiations, an announcement made now about the power line could be seen as interfering with contract negotiations and would be premature. But if Cliffs announces a closure, Government can ride in on a white horse and announce the power line and they and Alderon become the savior for the area. Also, if Cliffs were to close the mine might not that free up more power for Kami? (I don’t know, just speculating) I don’t think we will see an announcement until the dust settles for Cliffs but it will probably come before the end of the February. One other thought, if the new power line was built into the area, is there any chance that it might reduce Cliffs operating expenses and thereby be an incentive to keep Wabush in operation? I’m just speculating here and some of you guys know far more than I so please feel free to set me straight on this theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crackspread Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://www.mining.com/cliffs-cutting-capital-expenditures-by-50-laying-off-500-employees-94243/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://www.mining.com/cliffs-cutting-capital-expenditures-by-50-laying-off-500-employees-94243/ The new CEO at Cliffs gets it. The old CEO was kind of crazy (e.g. buying Consolidated Thompson at a large premium, pursuing the uneconomic chromite mine, constantly talking about expanding Bloom Lake). Cliffs is cleaning house. I don't see this as an indication of where the iron market is headed; Cliffs is simply making moves that make sense for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Okay quick question. Is it possible that closing Wabush frees up power that could be used at Kami? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes definitely. I don't see how it could go any other way. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Macaw Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is good news for Altius. Wabush mine was just too old and with cash cost every quarter of $140/ton this operation was in the end unsustainable, Cliffs tried to ride the whole thing out but the price never recovered and this decision is good for all. You don´t want to sepnd more energy than you get! I don´t know if this will free up more energy for Kami but it could be so since they are quite close. February and march could be nice months for Altius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 In the CBC news item on the closure of the Wabush mine they say... "Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tom Marshall said in a statement Tuesday night he would be heading to Wabush with two cabinet ministers." Want to bet that they talk about Alderon and power at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any thoughts on taking a position in Posco as a semi hedge to Altius? My thinking is Altius should do well unless the iron ore prices take a real dive (even then it will be fine, but it will eliminate Kami and Julienne Lake). Posco is undervalued and should do alright in the current environment, but will have a windfall if iron ore prices crash. To sum it up: 1. Current environment - Posco limps along and Altius hits a homerun 2. Iron ore crash - Altius limps along and Posco hits a homerun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dazel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ross, Posco may be your partner...they will undoubtedly be in the bidding for Altius and Alderon assets. They are already in the Labrador trough spending a billion dollars last year. Dazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So why does POSCO do well if iron ore prices plunge? (I am sure this is a dumb question but am not familiar with POSCO.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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