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Guest Dazel

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Like SD.

I expect more in the next few days...Altius stockholders are waiting on three things...

 

1.Kami financing (this could not happen without transmission line)

 

2. Julienne Lake win (this could not happen without transmission line)

 

3. PMRL closing.

 

All three are a $30 stock...we can extrapolate from there....and like Original Mungerville said...this has been a long time coming we will see traders jump ship...but the rest of us will see blips..on our way to $50.

 

 

Dazel.

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Mungerville, to say Alderon has not moved is not really correct. I think that the announcement was so anticipated over the past week and a half that it had already moved a fair amount. Ten days ago it was ADV was at $1.71 and is now around $2.08, that's about 20%. Alderon is pretty good at pumping the stock so we will see what they do with this news. While some are not in favour of the company promoting their own stock, it certainly can't hurt circulating press releases to bring this to investors attention. 

 

Government may also have a few more goodies to release over the coming weeks as they attempt to keep people in the region from panicing after the other mine closures.

 

I guess the next move for Alderon will be financing. They probably have it pretty well in place as a few weeks ago they announced orders were placed for material handling systems for the the shipping port.

 

"Alderon placed orders in December 2013 for two of the most critical pieces of its material handling system for the Pointe-Noire ore shipping terminal. An order has been placed with Metso Minerals Canada for the supply of the Rotary Car Dumper which is due for delivery in Q1 2015. The Stacker-Reclaimer will be acquired from Sandvik AB and the delivery is scheduled for Q2 2015. Additionally the Autogenous mill and ball mill drive systems were awarded to General Electric which complement the mills that were ordered in August 2013"

 

I am a little surprised this hasn't seemed to have any effect on Altius yet, but we will see.

 

That's the thing. Altius hasn't moved much yet which makes me wonder - even though Alderon has moved in past weeks and today pre-announcement - whether it will move post-annoucement along with, presumably, Altius.

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Guest 50centdollars

Alderon Iron Ore Corp.: Commitment to Construct Transmission Line Marks a

Significant Milestone

 

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Feb 13, 2014) - Alderon Iron Ore

Corp. (TSX:ADV)(NYSE MKT:AXX) ("Alderon" or the "Company") is pleased that the

Government of Newfoundland and Labrador has today confirmed that it will proceed

with the construction of a third transmission line from Churchill Falls to

Labrador West (the "New Transmission Line"). Nalcor has previously confirmed

that it would be able to supply power to the Kami Iron Ore Project ("Kami

Project") (see January 10, 2013 news release) but the New Transmission Line is

necessary to ensure there is enough transmission capacity to deliver the power

to the Kami Project. The confirmation regarding the New Transmission Line paves

the way for the conclusion of the Power Purchase Agreement which is the

remaining condition for a confirmed power supply for the Kami Project.

 

"Our government has no higher priority than to fuel the growth of opportunities

and a region that is growing in industrial activity needs a secure supply of

electrical power," said the Honourable Tom Marshall, Premier of Newfoundland and

Labrador in a press release issued by the Government today. "Nearly three weeks

ago, on the day that I was sworn in as Premier, I said the decision on a new

power line for this region was imminent. Today, I am announcing that the

decision is made and we will be moving forward with the construction of a third

line to supply power from Churchill Falls to western Labrador."

 

"Today's announcement reflects our government's support for responsible natural

resource development in the province, specifically for the mining industry in

western Labrador," said the Honourable Derrick Dalley, Minister of Natural

Resources in the same press release issued by the Government today.

"Construction of the third transmission line will meet power demands for new

mining developments, attract investment into the region, and generate spin-off

employment and business opportunities for the people of Labrador."

 

"Access to power is crucial for the Kami Project and we are proud to be a part

of the leading iron ore industry in Labrador," said Tayfun Eldem, President and

CEO of Alderon. "We are particularly pleased that the Kami Project will

contribute to the continued economic prosperity of the region. The announcement

of a third transmission line paves the way to execute on our Power Purchase

Agreement, which will greatly assist with the ongoing process for the previously

announced debt financing for the Kami Project."

 

"Realization of the Kami Project will demonstrate the ability of the Provincial

Government to work cooperatively with industry to bring to fruition a

significant economic development project for the people of Newfoundland and

Labrador," said Mark Morabito, Executive Chairman of the Board of Alderon. "We

are very appreciative that Premier Marshall and Minister Dalley have confirmed

the construction of the third transmission line, as the Kami Project will infuse

significant and long-term economic benefits to the Province. In addition to

approximately $3.9 billion in tax revenues, this mine will add an impressive

$25.4 billion to the Province's GDP. With a total direct investment of $11.9

billion, the Kami Project will also create approximately 800 construction and

500 full-time production jobs. This translates to a total of $2.7 billion being

paid to Newfoundland and Labrador employees and businesses."

 

Alderon has collaborated with the Province and Nalcor for more than two years to

secure access to power, including paying upfront engineering costs of $4.4

million. The statements from Chairman Mark Morabito regarding the economic

benefits of the Kami Project are based on an independent Economic Impact

Assessment ("EIA") of the Kami Project that was undertaken by Strategic

Concepts, Inc. and Dr. Wade Locke of Memorial University.

 

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While some are not in favour of the company promoting their own stock

I think that the CEO has a fiduciary duty to promote the stock.

 

It just comes down to how it's done.

For some reason... in my book it's ok if they get investment banks to promote the stock.  At least the buyers in an underwriting know that they are being promoted to.

On some of the shill websites... some people may not figure out that theaureport.com is being paid to promote.  There are some pages on that website where there isn't an explicit disclaimer; the disclaimer is on a different webpage.

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While some are not in favour of the company promoting their own stock

I think that the CEO has a fiduciary duty to promote the stock.

 

It just comes down to how it's done.

For some reason... in my book it's ok if they get investment banks to promote the stock.  At least the buyers in an underwriting know that they are being promoted to.

On some of the shill websites... some people may not figure out that theaureport.com is being paid to promote.  There are some pages on that website where there isn't an explicit disclaimer; the disclaimer is on a different webpage.

 

Trap,

 

        well said!

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“While some are not in favour of the company promoting their own stock...”

Perhaps I should have phrased that better. There is stock promotion and then there is stock promotion. We probably all agree that it is a company’s responsibility to inform investor’s about the company’s strong points and successes. The problem comes when a company spends vast amounts of money promoting its stock in an attempt to exaggerate investor’s perception of the value of the company and inflate the price of its shares. Its where the line lies between the two.

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So why would Alderon Iron Ore's Kami mine be in any different position than these other mines Labrador? What are they key differences which will allow the Kami mine to succeed relative to these other iron ore mines?

 

 

The Wabush mine is 50+ years old, so it's pretty easy to see that the ore quality would decline over time.  But with LIM it's less obvious and your question is a good one.  LIM's mines are quite young it appears.

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Keep in mind that the minister has just been there; & he cannot bestow largesse upon the region unless they can demonstrate need. Those other mines may also be selling most of their production at spot, & hence are more exposed to price shock.

 

ALS also has the 25% of Alderon, which is now liquid, & attractive, to whoever will be actually developing the mine. The mine closures will also lower the total cost of the skilled labour needed to get the mine in production, & Kami will not actually be selling ore for a good 18-24 months yet. Options that others do not have.

 

There is also the possibility of consolidation, & ALS is one of the more obvious players.

 

SD

 

 

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Keep in mind that the minister has just been there; & he cannot bestow largesse upon the region unless they can demonstrate need. Those other mines may also be selling most of their production at spot, & hence are more exposed to price shock.

 

ALS also has the 25% of Alderon, which is now liquid, & attractive, to whoever will be actually developing the mine. The mine closures will also lower the total cost of the skilled labour needed to get the mine in production, & Kami will not actually be selling ore for a good 18-24 months yet. Options that others do not have.

 

There is also the possibility of consolidation, & ALS is one of the more obvious players.

 

SD

 

SD,

 

How does the above relate to my question? I don't see how it does.

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18-24 months to ride out adverse changes in spot iron ore prices. Fixed prices & volumes to finance the mine with, no P&L shock for some time, little risk.

 

Couple more announcements; probably investment & labour credits for new investment in the region. The other mines have already been built & are therefore not eligible - Kami has not, & will be building at less capital cost. And if everyone is hurting .... can a minister really afford to not be sympathetic.

 

Less exposure, & less company specific risk, if they can deal their Alderon stake advantageously & pay down debt. Other mines don't have that option.

 

.... & lots of near-term, company specific, favorable change in the offing - with very little downside ;)

 

SD

 

 

 

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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/future-of-alderon-in-wabush-women-in-provincial-politics-1.2539529

 

"Morabito also said Alderon may be considering purchasing Wabush Mines – not to resume operations at the site, but to look at possible synergies with their operation."

 

Any ideas what synergies specifically he might be refering to?

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Original Mungerville,

 

Wabush has been deteriorating for a long time....it's old. Alderon would be buying equipment trucks etc....

 

Labrador iron mines bought old mines that had been abandoned they do not have scale and must build out infrastructure each time they try to develop a mine...they are in a constant capex without one centralized big mine...so after they build a mine the life of that mine is short. Very different...this is the case with must iron ore mines globally.

 

Dazel.

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Although we got the green light last week on the transmission line which is great news...Alderon has to get final approval from the federal government for the mine go ahead (any day) as well as sign a power agreement with Nalcor.

As SD said there is a lot going on...The Julienne lake decision should not be too far off either now that the transmission line has been approved.

 

Dazel.

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Yes now it is federal approval we are waiting for. This one I do think everyone has already calculated with. Approve a transmission line and then get a no from federal govt? Don´t think so.

 

What is interesting is what comes after that. How will they finance everything? If Altius can get 3 CAD per Alderon share and sell to the chinese I would be happy. That would cut the loan to about 30 MCAD. And then the "real deal" Julienne lake. I am counting on this one. Could we see 25 CAD per Altius share already this year? Interesting March that is for sure!!!

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Original Mungerville,

 

Wabush has been deteriorating for a long time....it's old. Alderon would be buying equipment trucks etc....

 

Labrador iron mines bought old mines that had been abandoned they do not have scale and must build out infrastructure each time they try to develop a mine...they are in a constant capex without one centralized big mine...so after they build a mine the life of that mine is short. Very different...this is the case with must iron ore mines globally.

 

Dazel.

 

Thanks Dazel. So these other mines are basically old, higher cost production at this point with large ongoing capex requirements.

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Yes now it is federal approval we are waiting for. This one I do think everyone has already calculated with. Approve a transmission line and then get a no from federal govt? Don´t think so.

 

What is interesting is what comes after that. How will they finance everything? If Altius can get 3 CAD per Alderon share and sell to the chinese I would be happy. That would cut the loan to about 30 MCAD. And then the "real deal" Julienne lake. I am counting on this one. Could we see 25 CAD per Altius share already this year? Interesting March that is for sure!!!

 

Can you provide some details and why you are so confident on Julienne Lake?

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Re. Julienne Lake, Altius owns the mineral claims to the immediate west and east of the area in question. Furthermore, it looks like the mineral deposit runs through the ALS claims. So this appears to give ALS and its unamed partners the inside track to gaining the mineral rights to the whole thing. Conversely, it would seem a bit strange to build a mine that did not incoroporate the ALS claims. See the graphic at http://altiusminerals.com/projects/julienne

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